China is way ahead of India and will remain ahead for primarily cultural reasons, but its political system deserves credit too. If India had a communist dictatorship like China's, it would have higher literacy, better health, much less caste injustice and much better infrastructure. None of the East Asian countries got where they are today without crucial periods of one-party or authoritarian government. Competent dictatorship enables the massive infrastructure projects that are essential for growth to be rammed through. It's brutal and unfair to some, but there is no alternative. You need a government that lasts decades without challenge to plan and see these things through. Democratic India cannot even assure a 24-hour power supply in Delhi, and nearly one-third of the people cannot read. It's a shameful record.

oohkuchi, sheffield, england

Dear Chee of Cov,

Yes I have been to China and have had the pleasure of a 10 hour train ride from Qingdao to Beijing (in a shoulder to shoulder coach) and the 'experience' of a 40 hour train (In a carriage with 75 others and 1 toilet) from Xi'an to Kunming. I have also been to Shanghai. I can say with confidence that the infrastructure of China has a long way to go. The infrastructure I refer to is between China's cities, not so much within the cities themselves. However there is no way that the local transport of Beijing can be compared to that of London, for one thing I was handed paper tickets by humans for all underground travel...what's that all about!? Shanghai is certainly up to standard, but amounts to a tiny percentage for a country with the highest population and third largest land mass in the world.

Reece, Windsor,

indians have extremely high opinion of themselves even when india is still one of the poorest, dirtiest and most corrupt country in the world. Can anybody imagine how much they will brag if they are really good at something? They are truely the superpower of self-delusion. If olympics had this sport, they may finally get a gold medal afterall. Then, we may need to "contain" india like we did to russia and china.

Donald, los angeles, united states

Shouldn't India be far ahead of China instead of the other way around? After all, India has been a democracy for 60 years while China has been held back by the awful hand of communism.

Everywhere in the world, democratic nations are many times wealthier than their communist neighbors (North and South Korea, East and West Germany, Russia and Japan, etc.)

Only India as a major democratic nation is around three times poorer than its communist neighbor. Free Chinese majority societies like Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore are all much wealthier than India.

So my bet is a on China widening the gap with India as it become freer in the future. The China of today is infinitely freer than the China of 20 years ago and the China 20 years hence will freer than the China of today.

India is already a democracy. It is already 60 years ahead of China though the results in wealth does not reflect it. India at its best is still two to three times poorer than an inefficient communist China.

newsie, boston, usa

Before I begin, i would like to say, I am Caucasian and have an impartial view of this debate. However, those in this thread that have been quick to attack India's growth in relation to China's have overlooked the fundamental premise of this article. This article does not bet on India winning out on some colossal fight to the death between these 2 powers, but rather asks the reader to relook India's rise to power. There is competition between these neighbors, but more than anything there is cooperation and collaboration. I have visited both countries many times, and the general consensus is that these two countries would like to rise to power in peace. We should not be arguing which country will turn out better but rather discuss how these two nations can end poverty to their sphere of the world which holds 1/3 of the worlds population. Moreover, china should strive to bring democracy to its people, while India should perfect its democracy by fighting discrimination and corruption

joe radcliffe, nyc, usa

Very interesting. First of all, I disagree with Nick who called Britain the 'former land lord' of India. Britain was the illegal occupier of Indian subcontinent, who used up all the resourses of the country for nearly 3 centuries, to get prosper during the industrial revolution, denying any chance for India to participate in the industrial revolution. The reason why westerners went to India was because that country was rich. India and China togother contributed to nearly half the worlds GDP in early 18th century. 60 years after independence( yes, India was totally looted and deprived after the colonial occupation) is not a long period when we consider the age of a country(It is ofcourse long a period for human life) Just look at America to see what was its position 60 years after its Independence? I am not really much interested in if India will become a super power or not. Seeding further hatred between India and China may be yet another tactics of the 'wested interests'!!

Thomas Kallachil, Dunfermline,

"what really matters to human beings: freedom. What's the point being a dragon, if you are caged?" - PK, Bangalore

The problem with the West and quite a few of those who have never been to China, is that they take the media hype literally. They way PK puts it, you would think that the Chinese are mindless zombies, who cant even go to the toilet without permission for their Communist overlords.

This couldnt be further from the truth. The Communism practiced in China today is a far cry from the days of the cultural revolution. True, incidents like Tiananmen and internet censorship tar the image of Chinese freedom, but the fact of the matter is that the Communism has little to no influence on the day to day lives of ordinary Chinese.

And, on the flipside, if you truly understood the Chinese psyche (as some Western businesses have), they would ask you what the point is in being free, if you cant even feed your own children?

Chee, Coventry,

China is a benighted Communist autocracy only one small step removed from its recent history as part slave-state part death-camp. However, India is an _actual_ slave state. Approximately 50% of India's population exist in an abject state that is different from slavery in one aspect only, namely that their lives are of so little value that no one needs to actually own them!

Blinded by his single-issue philosophy, the libertarian will lose his bet.

Kip Watson, Melboune, Australia

I think to regard the fact that India "has a demographic advantage over China – it will have a larger working-age population by 2050" is rose -tinted to the point of foolishness. In this world of rapidly declining resources - particularly water and energy - and rapidly reducing labour requirements, the inability to halt in any way the rapidly increasing Indian population can scarcely be regarded as an advantage, either for India or for the rest of the planet. It is well known that those parts of India which are doing better in terms of standard of living are those parts with a more controlled population (Bangalore, Chennai, the South) while the "cow belt" - UP, Bihar etc. is doing badly. It is no coincidence that China's development supremacy over India at present has much to do with population control - the supreme example of authoritarian control.

Richard B., Bath, UK

Dear Reece of Windsor.

Have you been to China? The infrastructure in Beijing / Shanghai / Shenzhen would make London look like the stone-age.

Disclaimer: I am Chinese but I am not a Chinese national, so I am not being nationalistic. I would much rather Malaysia became a world superpower (but I know thats wishful thinking).

Chee, Cov,

I'm Indian, and I can tell you that India's mess is most definitely NOT Britain's fault. It's Nehru's fault, simply because he strangled the economic life (ie wealth creation) of the country. This is no joke, because it meant widespread poverty, and his daughter Indira took it to an extreme, resulting in extreme corruption. Only now are we emerging from the economic disasters that the Nehru dynasty created. You can't blame Mahatma Gandhi because his aversion to technology was not Luddite - he was anti-technology as a statement against British imperialism, ie technology was taking away Indian jobs, and Indians didn't have access to British technology. In short, his policy needs to be viewed in context.

Anyway, I'd rather live in free a relatively poor India than dictatorial and "we censor Google" China. All these writers who write about dragons and elephants don't know what really matters to human beings: freedom. What's the point being a dragon, if you are caged?

PK, Bangalore,

On another note, I find it curious how locally born Indians call themselves "British", yet hold such nostalgia and nationalism towards the motherland. Just yesterday I watched a programme on the Beeb about a British Indian 'going home' to 'find his roots'.

In contrast, the Malaysian Chinese, Singaporean Chinese have guarded Chinese culture aggresively, and yet they also are fiercely nationalistic towards their countries of birth. Their relationship with China is that they have a shared culture and language, but their allegiance lies with their own countries, much like Australia, New Zealand, etc and the UK.

Personally, I find it off-putting

Pete, Cov,

"One more comment - Family planning is certainly NOT the need of the moment." -Anirban, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

Unfortunately, recent studies and figures (published here in the Times) indicate otherwise - India has the highest percentage (roughly 30%) of malnourished children in the world.

As James from London quite rightly states, China is following a well documented journey of production and manufacturing 'from scratch', and then building on the acquired expertise and technology. After all, Toyota once sent engineers to the US to learn from the Americans, and circa 50 years on, Toyota is without a doubt the best manufacturing company in the world. Taiwan started off producting OEM computer components for Intel (they still do), and now there are several Taiwanese companies that are challenging the market share of major American computer component manufacturers.

My bet is on China, which is why I will be sending my children to a school that teaches Chinese.

Pete, Cov,

It is nice to see citizens of our old colonies still finding it necessary to use British rule as a scapegoat for their ongoing problems. The harsh reality is that Nehru, his cronies in the Congress party and the indigenous rich kept India as an economically backward quasi-socialist giant for decades for their own benefit. Their policies certainly did little to benefit the vast majority of the population who were given the illusion of democratic choice, but were held back by a corrupt régime in a state of widespread poverty and illiteracy for most of the time since independence.

Gervas Douglas, Andorra la Vella,

"Moreover, China – unlike India – has not been effective at managing its gross regional inequalities. Few doubt that China’s economic triumph will eventually bring political turmoil in its wake"

Really, China's literacy rate 90% +, India's around 60%. And which has been better at dealing with inequality? I think you will find Gujarat to Bihar is much like Zhejiang to Inner Mongolia.

"It has a demographic advantage over China – it will have a larger working-age population by 2050."

In a world of constrained resources excessive population is unlikely to be an advantage.

Aguments for the elephant winning over the dragon generally tend to come down to one or the combination of three things: democracy, grasp of English language and legal system. All of which are legacies of the British that have been there for 60 years in which China has left India in its wake.

James, London,

We wish both India and China well, however my bet for economic, and possibly world domination, lies with the Chinese.

India has awesome reserves of BRAINPOWER...that is driving current and future success, however the Chinese are on track to become the world's greatest capitalists, and they are moving up fast! With the possible exception of the Japanese, I know of no more disciplined, frugal and fiercely ambitious people.

They respect themselves, their families and their country and they are totally dedicated to their national success. In general, they are very law-abiding, avoiding crime, drugs and disorder.

If we do not learn from the Chinese - very quickly - we will be overwhelmed and surpassed by them. It is time for a new dawn in Britain.

The East is rising VERY fast! The West (read Britain and the USA) must wake up and get their acts together. Corruption is the Enemy of The West.

Garth Rex, Glendale Heights, USA

India is not even in the same league as China regarding GDP or exports. Any comparison only seems to come from indian commentators oblivious to the Asian Tigers like South Korea, Taiwan, Japan etc. They seem to be very shallow and ignorant of the facts. (China exports 10 times as much as what India exports) how can you possible compare such economies?

India has to get to that level first to be able to to be compared on par with the giant of Asia.

akram, London,

Maria, Bingo!!! You have touched a very pertinent and germane issue. Is "India Inc." really shinning ?.... or are the glosses and sheen like some patch work wall papering on the Indian scenario.
There is no iota of doubt that Indian economy is booming and galloping at a rapid pace, and the 'tiger' is posing a threat to the 'dragon' .Indians have excelled in IT and BPO (out sourcing) sectors and are causing jitters and some shivers down the spine in the West. But the whole portrait of India Inc. is like a huge Canvas work or some mural graffitti painted by motley of artists working together. There are some sectors and zones, like metros...Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and SEZs etc. where the growth is imminent, and the painters have shown their artistic expertise, where as the other parts of canvas still exhibits shoddy works. Few States and areas are still suffering from illiteracy, abject poverty ,unemployment,corruption and terrorism.That's what Indians are, united yet diversified.

Witty, New Delhi, India

You are right Mr. Donald Fisher:

No India is not an IT superpower, though we like to think so! But seriously we have all the necessary tools and resources to become one! But we will talk about it when we come to that bridge!

I am not a big fan of our own country politicians, but I am not sure about the spin you are talking about, because we have seen so many spins in our lives!!

All these elites started working in IT field just a decade ago and no country in this world achieved innovations in decades and I am sure you will agree!

What ever it is, we will strive hard to catch up with you Don! Just be patient and you will know before the end of your generation!

Thank you

Prakash, Old Bridge, NJ/USA

I actually hold the opposite view of arindam, democracy is not a foreign concept to hindus. There are broadly two types of religons, democractic, liberal and despotic. Hinduism and Budhism fall into the former. All faiths are respected by hinduism, entry to heavens is not restricted, not even to atheists, the only major religion to say that God is Woman. Contrast that to other faiths, which is why Hindu India is a shining democracy whereas muslim pakistan is a despotic country. The closer muslim and western countries get to their abrahamic faith, the less democratic they become.

Jayant Patel, Chicago, USA/IL

I find it fascinating that the author and a few of the commentors are making statements without visiting China (most likely). Reece of Windsor said the infrastructure was lacking in both India and China, which in way is true but if Reece has been to China big cities like Shanghai and Bejing, the Airport facilities will make him feel that Heathrow Airport is distinctly pre-Victorian!

David Thomas, Princetown, US

Much of this article is wishful thinking. Apart from the putative "creativity", which apparently the Chinese do not possess, Misra does not give one sound reason for her optimistic conclusion and many for drawing quite the opposite.

India is still very much a shame culture and its cultural and religious divisions, far from being a source of creativity, may well be a drawback. After two decades of unprecendented growth and benefits brought by cheap outsourcing, it is likely that as costs rise, growth will slow. China, on the other hand, offers a much more reliable option for foreign investment, for the very reasons outlined in the article. Nor need we only look at China mainland. Singapur, with its extremely large Chinese population, and Taiwan are also examples of Chinese success. And the business world is clearly of same opinion.

Francis Tuttle, Madrid,

Despite its myriad problems India is the world's largest Democracy. It does not harbor terrorists and its Muslim population seems to be very Pro-India. Over two hundred million Hindu, Jain and Buddhist Indians are very peaceful vegetarians who refuse to harm people or animals. China is a dictatorship that decimated Tibet, threatens Taiwan, and supports the brutal North Korean and Sudan Governments. The west should indisputably embrace India and respecfully be tentative with China.

Brien Comerford, Glenview, United States

Ms. Misra should know better. She should have said how India is doing so wonderfully well because of the British, their legacy of English and the railway and nothing at all to do with anything else.

LS, Oxford, UK

Chlna makes things. Like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan it ascend the ladder of technical sophistication from pots and pans to advanced electronics. China has tackled overpopulation head on.

India relies on outsourcing from the Anglosphere. When the Anglosphere decllnes so will India.

james c, london,

I fully agree with Nick. I am surprised, to say the least, that the author of the article is a Fellow at an Oxford college. The arguments are facile and this article as as 'pop' an articles as the the economists she derides with this appendage to their name. Why do British historians and analysts so readily fall into the sweet trap of finding a fond connection to empire in so much amalyses where former colonies are the subject? India's biggest problem remains its entrenched Hindu caste system, which makes a mockery of both its highly flawed democracy and acts as much of a restraint on the creativity of its people as does Communism and Confucianism in China. India, democracy and preferred partner of the west as she may be, continues to face far greater challenges than China.

Mark, Ibrag, Malta

India is dependent on Anglosphere outsourcing. China actually makes things and will, like Japan, Korea and Taiwan ascend the ladder of technological sophistication.

When the Anglosphere declines so will India. China won't outsource callcenters and software to India.

james, london,

Even being Indian, I would agree with Nick. India needs to take more responsibility for tackling its social ills. Observed over the last 20 years, it does seem to be doing so. The slow pace is a natural result of the significant social, cultural, religious, linguistic and economic diversity. Coalition and consensus building therefore takes time and consistency. Time we have. We really need to maintain consistency in economic growth and redistribution policies so that the majority enjoys the benefit of economic development.

One more comment - Family planning is certainly NOT the need of the moment. India needs to keep population at atleast replacement rate, if not at a slight exponential rate. We must not subscribe to the demographic suicide going on in China now.

Anirban, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

This political analyst is one of the worst I have come across in recent times. Her comparisons, justifications and reasoning are not backed up by any facts, and it seems as if we are supposed to believe her "because she says so".

As a rule of thumb, India was conquered, while China has always been a sovereign nation. So my money's on China.

Pete, Cov,

good luck,I don't belive you and put my money on CHINA

e_widiner, shanghai, Peoples Repubik of China

There are still 750 million Indians living below the poverty line. Although there is a lot of development taking place however it will take a minimum of 50 years of hard work by the Indians to get to where China is today.

With Hindu hardliners making life miserable for Muslims in India and the Maoist extremists in Assam, Sikh separitists in Punjab and a volatile Tamil Nadu, there are too many problems to overcome.

I visited India a few years back and the poverty is just unimaginable.

Aay Ell, Toronto, Canada

India has its faults but a considerable amount of its stability is due to granting real autonomy to its various regions. The continuing instability in Kashmir and the Northeast is due to sheer incompetence by Delhi. On the other hand a considerable amount of dissent and free speech is allowed hence the sneeringly referred to 'Maoist peasants, [and] neo-Gandhian middle-class eco-warriors.' China's Han majority rules its minoriy areas as real colonies, by military force and the influx of settlers, although there may be native figureheads. In Chinese China local cadre elites pursue profitable business ventures with a disregard for law, people or environment. This caused 87,000 rural disturbances in 2005, a rise of 6.6% from 2004. Last month Chen Guangcheng who is blind received the Magsaysay Award, Asia's 'Nobel Prize' campaigner for his work against forced abortions because of which he recieved a four-year prison sentence. In India foriegners see reality, in China a Potemkin village.

Adrian Moon, Bridgwater, UK

This is just another irritating example of that Indian love of boasting. V S Naipaul has repeatedly called attention to it.

I have many Chinese frends and acquaintances (I am a Vancouverite) and am of Indian origin. What I can't help noticing with the Chinese is that they tend to fend off embarrassedly references to the astonishing economic growth in China, or forecasts that China will soon be the No 1 country etc. They always say: "it's all exaggerated, we've got huge huge problems, particulalrly in the countryside."

With my fellow Indians, it is the opposite behaviour. Loudly and gracelessly they will tell all and sundry about the incredible rise of India, how all this vindiicates age-old Hindu wisdom, that Indians will soon be ruling the world etc. It's embarrasing and deeply distressing. It makes me feel utterly ashamed as an Indian. I also note the wild animosity to China, a verbal determination to surpass it, as though this is a win-or-die "contest".

Ganpat Ram , London , UK

Take a look at the Olympics, ready one year ahead of schedule, with details right down to replacing public signs in defective English, and tell me if that could happen in India.

jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/US

First, stop blaming others for india failure, india had been independent and Democratic for 60 yrs. Few people in today india grow up under England rule. Take Hongkong, singapore as example, both of these two colonies separate from england later than india did and developed into two of the most effective and clean government in the world. While India is still one of the most backward and corrupt country on earth.
Second, stop comparing india with china, the only similarity between those two countries is population. nothing else! 250 million young, uneducated, unemployed people mean nothing! India population is younger than china "now", so where is the dividend? it is funny how some indian politicans can put a positive spin on this potentially danger trend and most indian believes in it!
Third, stop boosting indian as the IT superpower of the world. In a country where all its elite and best mind are working in IT field, india show little or no innovation in this field.

Donald Fisher, los angeles, united state

this article, with it's nationalistic tone, was more suited for a regional indian newspaper or magazine rather then in an international newspaper.

Shiraz, Karlskrona,

The most notable thing missed out by intellects here is India's growth is not driven by authorities, bureaucrats or politicians. It is driven by the young hard working ambitious population mostly below age 40. In fact government and its often under qualified bureaucrats (IAS officers etc) are seen as an obstacle or corrupt hindrance to modern India's progress by this young generation. I believe this situation is by far too much in contrast to China, Japan or West where the government/central authority planned development and modernisation. What we have in case of India is actually quite an unique example of a diverse nation fundamentally driven by people and not by handful of upper class intellects. Let's all appreciate this fact.

Meena K, Cardiff,

As long as Indians discriminate against Muslims and the lower castes....there will be no real progress.

GG, Scotland,

It's fascinating to contemplate the potential for countries with 'surreal' populations. However I must question the mobility of these populous giants. Both China and India have literacy and infrastructure comparitive to pre-Victorian Britain. These fundamental flaws must be rectified before either can truly be considered as first class countries. I get the sense that both are trying to run before they can crawl!

Reece, Windsor,

The most notable thing missed out by intellects here is India's growth is not driven by authorities, bureaucrats or politicians. It is driven by the young hard working ambitious population mostly below age 40. In fact government and its often under qualified bureaucrats (IAS officers etc) are seen as an obstacle or corrupt hindrance to modern India's progress by this young generation. I believe this situation is by far too much in contrast to China, Japan or West were the government/central authority planned development and modernisation. What we have in case of India is actually quite an unique example of a diverse nation fundamentally driven by people and not by handful of upper class intellects. Let's all appreciate this fact.

Durva, Southampton,

No Nick..

She wasn't blaming Britain for creating the caste system. She was pointing out how the political setup the British left made the use of those divisions as a core political strategy the more likely.

A bit hypersensitive aren't we?

Sam, London, UK

These are the same arguments put forward by Indian nationalists to rationalise India's relatively slow pace of economic development. There is dismay at China's ability to move quickly and hope that it may falter. The author would do better to focus on the positives that has led China to where it is today. Blaming past circumstances 60yrs on from indepencence is a pointless excercise. Althogether the article amounts to little more than a wallowing, self-justifying delusion. Its not sustainable, only the truth is, to believe otherwise is a waste of your own time.

Gary, London,

The proposition that India's economic problems result (in part at least) from a political system which, while democratic, has parties which are largely based around religions/classes/castes/regions is interesting.

Of course, you don't have to go as far away as India to see a similar situation. The Good Friday Agreement (for all its good points) institutionalises a political system in Northern Ireland which makes the ethnic/religious divide the centre of all elections. The requirement for parties to designate as nationalist or unionist in the Assembly means that voters are unwilling to support left/right/green parties. So we have two sets of parties that compete to see who can shout loudest for their "team" and who can get the most cash out of the UK taxpayer. The idea that they should actually compete on the basis of who can best run NI for all its people is alien to them. Needless to say we are one of the most economically unproductive of the UK regions....

David J. Timson, Belfast, UK

Typical vapid ‘Bollywood’ style political commentary. Yes the English did not go out of there way to leave a great legacy, but, 60 years later the Indian political class must take the blame for 30+ % illiteracy.

Magical Tipster, birmingham, uk

Why is this author so nationalistic? She seems to blame India's woes on China. Can she not get past this and just hope that both countries do well?

Paul Samson, London, UK

Indian culture,deeply rooted in and drawing sustenance from the Hindu religion and mythology, has a remarkable affinity for monarchy or a benign dictatorship. Democracy is a later day concept, foreign to our soil. Today we witness the proliferation of Dynasties, in New Delhi, Chennai, Mumbai and elsewhere. Unless we question our leaders in the right spirit, Indian Democracy will remain a veritable hybrid; neither socialistic nor capitalistic. Universal education and family planning is the need of the hour.

arindam, calcutta, indiaa

This would be a more convincing analysis if Misra faced one simple fact, namely, that the various divisions she claims that the British left behind were part of the tangled mess that was "India" when they turned up there. To give one example: the caste system existed for millenia before the British got anywhere near the subcontinent. Added to which, after 60 years of independence, if India has not solved its problems, the responsibility rests with India, not Britain. You can hardly blame the former landlord for a leaking roof if you, 60 years after taking over the property, have not invested the time and energy to fix it. I would add that China has been managing political turmoil at least since 1911, and arguably since the 1840s. This whole article seems based on comparisons that are shallow and inaccurate, as well as outdated ideas on how India's problems are Britain's fault. This is not analysis, but pointless neo-liberal dogma.

Nick, London, UK