Simon Jenkins
Win VIP tickets
Did we enjoy watching Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, squirm last week? Oh yes we did. Were we thrilled by Sir John Gieve, the deputy governor, writhing as he was told by MPs that he was “asleep on the job”? We were indeed, recalling that Gieve got this plum after leaving the Home Office in the worst shambles in its history.
Did we not object to MPs, so often negligent, grandstanding their rage before the cameras? Not really. We elected them and they spoke, for once, for a baffled and no less enraged nation.
The governor of the Bank of England used to be second only to the Archbishop of Canterbury in Establishment sanctity. While ordinary mortals went about their business, they assumed that their business was ultimately safe in the hands of chaps like these, with lofty titles and salaries and a knowledge of Libor rates and “three-month maturities”. A bit of oil here, a squeeze on the arm there and the government machine would purr smoothly onwards.
Now we have had the first run on a British bank since the Overend Gurney crash of 1866. Charlotte de Rothschild knew something awful was happening when “dear Papa, the Uncles and Natty” were all at the office on a Saturday. The Times reported that “the throngs were heaving and the tumult became a rout”.
This time orderly queues lined the nation’s high streets and were given free Starbucks. But when told by the gilded ones not to panic, they pondered on the advice and panicked. When the chancellor of the exchequer and the prime minister were prised from their shells and promised that the deposits were safe, they were simply disbelieved. Nobody trusts political liars when his money is at stake. Lurking in Northern Rock’s offices appeared to be weapons of mass financial destruction. When Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown denied it, the depositors said pull the other one.
On Thursday, after no sign of mea culpa from anyone in charge, the House of Commons at last did its job. It held the executive to account, albeit making do with King and Gieve, the organ-grinder’s monkeys. They appeared mildly if briefly discomfited, secure in their jobs and pensions but forced at least to explain themselves. Gieve, a member not just of the Bank but also of the official regulator, the Financial Services Authority (FSA), showed little awareness of what this liaison implied. He seemed to think it was just to observe, thus embodying British amateurism at work.
King’s line was that none of this was his fault. True, crisis management is the chief task of a central bank. But the failure of Northern Rock or at least the nationalisation of its deposits was a result of decisions taken by the present prime minister when at the Treasury. One was the sacking of the Bank as Britain’s financial regulator, moving the job to the FSA. The other, two years ago, was enforcing the European Union’s “market abuses directive”. Its inter-bank disclosure rules made any covert rescue bid impossible (a claim since denied by Brussels).
This accusation threatened an open split within the nation’s financial establishment. On this at least the powers-that-be were swiftfooted. It took Darling a matter of hours to assert his full confidence in King. He was thus able to imply that the fiasco was nothing to do with the government and that King had de facto apologised, to Downing Street’s satisfaction (and relief). If King were to fall, his memoirs might tear aside the fig leaves that have long covered Brown’s vitals as chancellor. As far as ministers were concerned, posturing MPs might have their day but all would be quiet tomorrow.
King appears to have some justice on his side. (The FSA is a different matter.) Even Milton Friedman, the guru of economic laissez faire, accepted that the one task required of government is to put in place a structure to prop up market confidence in the banking system in time of panic. Where confidence is unjustified (as in such failures as BCCI or Barings), the damage should at least be isolated.
In the days of the joint-stock cartel, the Bank of England’s governor would have heard rumours of trouble at Northern Rock and would have convened a secret meeting of the other banks. Given that Northern’s asset base, mostly house mortgages, was reportedly sound, a short-term loan would have been assembled and injected to restore confidence. There would have been no run on deposits.
Since 1997 Brown’s Treasury reforms have rendered any such covert operation near impossible, with a plethora of banks and a separate official regulator. It must have irked King, as it did Sir Eddie George, his predecessor, to hear Brown constantly blowing his trumpet over his reform of the Bank of England. Now it has fallen at the first hurdle. As The Economist commented last week, the crisis has wrecked the City’s reputation for “the depth and sophistication of its markets and the sure touch with which they have been regulated”. Nor is it just the City at risk. Financial services are now a fifth of the British national product.
Capitalist economics are based on credit, a willingness of those with money to postpone spending it and allow others to use it more productively. This relies on small savers parting with their money, praying to a mix of information and blind faith on which, as Eliot said, “assurance rests like a silk hat on a Bradford millionaire”. In explaining his apparent failure on Thursday, King appealed to such mystique.
This might seem no more than a squabble at a plutocratic garden party if it did not raise the spectre of our old friend, trust. Where loss of trust in a public authority can be met by more openness, the answer is simple, more openness. But in banking regulation, as in matters of national security, openness is not necessarily the answer. Public consent to a regime must rely on the credibility of those in charge. It was against that credibility that last week’s high street queues were a damning demonstration. “Trust them?” said one irate depositor. “You must be joking.”
The affair has shown just how difficult Tony Blair and Brown have made it for people to believe what leaders say. Both men have bombarded the public with vague pledges and targets whose purpose is little more than political wallpaper. Ministers promise smaller classes, more literacy, less poverty, more police, less traffic, with targets they have no means of achieving and with no intention of resigning or otherwise accepting responsibility if they fail. When the press holds them to account it is accused of “feral cynicism”, Blair’s euphemism for democracy.
Brown has taken over where Blair left off. He demands trust in claiming that British troops are “doing a worthwhile job”, getting killed in Iraq and Afghanistan simply to hold together the coalition with America. He demands trust in claiming that national security requires 90 days’ detention without charge. He demands trust that the proposed European treaty is “merely a tidying up” and is not the old constitution renamed (as he knows it is).
He expects us to believe his talk of listening, delegating and localising while his decisions go the opposite way. This is the same leader who expected people to believe him when he said Northern Rock was safe without state backing.
In her 2002 Reith lectures, Onora O’Neill remarked that openness and transparency were not absolute goods in government. “We should not be surprised,” she said, “that the technologies that spread information so easily are just as good at spreading misinformation.” Consent in a democracy also depended on accepting a role for confidences, secrets and professional respect. That trust is desperately vulnerable to erosion, which can be carried over from one sphere of government to another, from defence to personal morality to public finance.
The Northern Rock crisis appears to be over, thanks to the injection not of trust but of £28 billion of taxpayer guarantees. But the roasting of a few Establishment bottoms will not undo the damage. Brown would be wise to make a self-denying ordinance. He should say only what he means and mean only what he intends to do and then he should do it. When what he does is proved wrong, as with the Treasury reform of the Bank of England, he should admit it and correct it at once.
Otherwise he and his ilk will never be entitled to what any democratic leader needs: the public’s belief in his integrity.
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£23,093 - £56,211
The Office for National Statistics
Newport, South Wales
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
The most clear and coherent analysis I have read yet. I t put
the blame where it belongs on the Government not the BoE.
Denver Watt, Osaka, Japan
Wow. Tories obviously petrified at Gordon opportunistically shaving Cameron of his shallow support have now taken to making wild allegations. Never mind that the FT and most independent players, and worst of all the public have concluded the blame is to be shared, but lies primarily with the BoE. No according to the more blatant Tories out there, its all Brown's fault.
Oh yes, and the EU's. Never mind that in America no bank was willing to lend to another, (however fundamentally sound their positions were... that's why it;s called a crisis of confidence). No, the market was going to sort it out if it wasn't for the damn interfering Labor Govt and incompetent regulators. Pathetic.
Chris, WASHINGTON DC,
Mr Jenkiins.
This is most clear and coherent analysis I`ve read on this
sorry episode. Your point about "Darling" Alistair seemingly
trying to shift the blame onto the BoE, insttead of where it
belongs with Brown shows that New Labour is still very much
about spin and not substance.
This leaves Brown with a dilemma, go for an early election and
risk losing most of Labour`s 38 seats in Scotland on which his
majority at Westminster is dependant. Or wait for the SNP`s
honeymoon period to end risk losing as your said the fig leaves covering his reputation if a further sorry shambles
occurs. I wonder which way will he jump.
Denver Watt, Osaka, Japan
Brilliantly analyzed. The lack of trust exhibited by panicking Northern Rock customers is indeed a chicken coming home to roost. What you didn't mention is that Alistair Darling was forced into making a promise he surely cannot keep. How can he promise that the Treasury will guarantee the depositors of ANY bank which suffers a liquidity crisis similar to that faced by Nothern Rock? Surely if a major panic were to take hold the treasury coffers would be overwhelmed too?
No wonder the Bank of England was forced into a U-turn to pump liquidity into the system and so seek to avoid another bank having to ask for support. No wonder the government is urgently looking to put better depositors' insurance in place. They must be terrified that the Chancellor's bluff might be called.
Sheila Berridge, Leicester,
I am sorry to say that a significant number of people were confused by what went on with Northern Rock, etc. but believed that Brown saved a lot of peoples money. The fact that it is their money that is put at risk is not understood. BOE independence is similarly misinderstood. It goes over most people's heads. this is the special skill of Brown. He understands not only these things but that the ordinary voter only wants him to save them from themselves and from nasty people like bankers, financiers, big business, etc. and he is only too happy to oblige.
R Mason, London, UK
This is the first clear and coherent explanation of the whole
sorry shambles. I especially liked your exposure of "Darling"
Alistair`s attempt to lay all the blame on the BoE and King
instead of where it belongs on his predessor`s lap.
This leavesãBrown with a dilemma go early to the polls and risk getting trounced by the SNP in Scotland and thus losing the election, or wait and risk more dirt coming out. Thus losing
as you aptly put his fig leaves.
I wonder which way Brown will jump.
Denver Watt, Osaka, Japan
The mix here of highly amusing narrative and serious underlying message will enliven many a breakfast with plenty of food for later thought.
The underlying point of credibility and the description of how it was achieved in the past seems to be spot on. The wider issue of the danger of tinkering with well established mechanisms without proper understanding of all their purposes and how those are achieved should become a mantra for any serious politician desirous of change.
To return to the visual images of the queues outside Northern Rock branches (given colour and realism by the potent replies of those queuing invited to talk about their worries), the impact on mass thinking could have implications for cosy pollsters, focus group aficionados, tick-box analysts and policy wonks far beyond any education in the reasons for the emergence of the wheelbarrow as a personal financial vehicle in 1920s Wiemar.
dr venables preller, Warminster, UK
Pigs will fly the day Brownski admits he got anythung wrong. The day anyone really senior who is responsible for getting it all wrong resigns or is sacked will be rarwer than that.
Dr J Findlater, Carnforth,
A magnificent analysis, and not only of the Northern Rock debacle, but of the general thrust of government since May 1979: "do less, but make it seem like more".
Tom MacFarlane, Blackpool, UK
As for trusting Brown, one only has to think back and remember his Budget statements. It usually took the media's financial analysts two or three days to work out that what Brown was intending the public to believe was not necessarily the truth.
David, Poole,
Confidence is indeed the only thing that props up money, let alone the financial system and banks.
The boy who cried wolf falsely didn't have any problems either - until there was a wolf.
Peter Brooks, Cape Town,
Thank you, it is high time someone told it like it is!
Bernard Olley, Fröndenberg, Germany