There is an iron law of politics that will weigh upon Gordon Brown this coming fortnight. The late Roy Jenkins, the former Labour grandee and first leader of the breakaway Social Democratic party, put it at its unhelpful best: “Under the British system almost all elections lost by the prime ministers are ex hypothesi thought to have been held on the wrong date.” A warning from history. Should Brown go for a snap poll after conference or sit it out?
Jenkins knew the worst. As chancellor he had seen Harold Wilson, his media-savvy prime minister, take the soundings of favourable opinion polls and local election results, observe the weakness of the Conservative opposition led by Edward Heath and plump for an early election in 1970. Wilson’s lead evaporated and the Pickfords removal van soon came calling at No 10.
Wilson’s stock was not high, however. He had been outmanoeuvred in cabinet over curbing the power of the trade unions while the public had never quite forgiven him for the forced devaluation of the pound. By contrast, Brown’s stock is blue chip. As chancellor, he has broken the party’s devaluation curse and avoided a reputation for economic imprudence that afflicted all previous Labour governments.
Brown’s command of cabinet is unassailable, too. Big beasts such as David Blunkett, John Reid and Charles Clarke and Blairite ultras such as Alan Milburn have long gone. Whatever the sincerity of his pledge to revive the authority of cabinet after the Blair “sofa government” years, it will take time for the newly promoted men of the future – David Miliband, the foreign secretary, and Ed Balls, the education supremo – to build their authority. His ally and successor as chancellor, Alistair Darling, is steadying his feet after the squall of Northern Rock. Only the enigmatic figure of Jack Straw, sitting at the left hand of Brown around the cabinet table, recalls a flirtation with real power.
As he looks forward to his Bourne-mouth party conference speech, for once untroubled by rivalry with Tony Blair, there are few clouds on his horizon. The unions and the far left will bleat but Iron Gordon’s tin soldiers will have torn up the most embarrassing motions about Trident and Iraq. More work must be done to put forward a convincing case that the National Health Service, law and order and schools are getting better, but the first item will be addressed comprehensively. Why not announce an election next week during the Tory conference at Blackpool and steal the headlines and David Cameron’s thunder?
On a completely unreliable straw poll of top Labour politicians, I find that gloomy old hands scarred by Wilson’s 1970 defeat, and with a folk memory of an exhausted Clement Attlee’s suicidal lunge to the polls in 1951, think the prime minister would be mad to go early. His reputation stands on being “unflash Gordon”, in the words of his new friends at Saatchis. The voters know that he knows more than they do about the real state of the country: they will suspect he is cutting and running before trouble ahead.
Blairites, sunny sorts like their former boss, think he should go for it. But then their optimism is always balanced by pessimism about Brown’s long-term appeal to the average British or, they really mean, English voter. “Do it now before they find out you are no change at all” is advice as appealing to Brown as a ticket to the celebrity launch party of Cherie’s new memoirs.
History plays tricks. Anthony Eden called an election in 1955 a mere nine days after Churchill surrendered the keys to No 10 – while Attlee, the opposition leader, was still on holiday – and romped home. James Callaghan, the Labour prime minister, kept us all “waiting at the church” in autumn 1978 when economic circumstances bid fair. He hoped for better still in 1979 but by then the unions’ winter of discontent had frozen all hope.
The near collapse of Northern Rock is ammunition for both pro and antielection camps. The antis warn that another sudden squall could hit a financial institution with disastrous timing during an election campaign. Those in favour predict that the economy will go into first gear next year. More repossessions, a dip in house prices and the likelihood of some other catastrophe strengthen the case for going now when people still have money in their pockets – or, rather, can still service their credit card debts.
The polls look good for Labour but it is trends they care about. “Look at the poll 14 days ago” says one leading Conservative strategist of the ICM poll on Thursday that showed the Tories eight points behind and also-ran ratings for Cameron’s leadership qualities. The voters are holding on to Nurse Brown right now, despite the run on the Rock, for fear of something worse – an untested Tory opposition.
This has been a rollercoaster of a political year. At the beginning down went support for Blair, down went Brown’s reputation and up rose Cameron and his modernising party.
The Tories at one stage had a lead over Labour on the NHS and began to recover a reputation for economic reliability lost since the pound was ejected from the European monetary system. Yet after the Brown coronation his and Labour’s ratings bounced high. They were tempered only by Cameron’s frenzied activity and a belated appeal to core Tory immigration and law and order themes.
A key Tory strategist sneers: “Does Brown really want to run the risk of being the Trivial Pursuit question: who was the shortest serving British prime minister in history?” He confidently cites boundary changes that have “given” the Conservatives 10-15 seats and changed circumstances north of the border where the Scottish National party is running riot in Brown’s hitherto safe Labour heartland.
A 1.5% swing to the Conservatives, half of what Michael Howard achieved for them at the last election, would deprive Brown of a majority. Michael Ashcroft, the Tory billionaire and deputy chairman has his organisation humming; almost all their target seat candidates are selected and budgets are allocated. “If I had to bet, it would be on an election in spring 2009 or 2010,” my high-powered Tory informant tells me.
“I’m optimistic but not gung-ho,” counters one cabinet minister who knows where the bodies are buried. “These things are conditioned by the political atmosphere. People are much more energised and prepared to knock on doors. And our people in the marginals have the power of incumbency.”
But there is a warning attached: “We’ve got to get a sense of the big issues at our conference. This is not just a Labour-Tory dogfight but we have to have a serious response to real people’s problems.” That means addressing health where Labour, despite Brown’s billions of largesse, gets critical ratings and worse reviews.
An appeal will be made to Brown by the old timers that as an homme sérieux he can’t go for broke. Why, he’s even aired fixed five-year terms. To cut and run to the country would be seen as sheer opportunism. Shouldn’t he accomplish things in his own right, out of the shadow of Blair and show that he has made a difference? This faction says Brown should win “the verdict” of the voters next spring or the year after and abandon thoughts of winning a “mandate” now.
Those arguments and Brown’s caution may win the day. Remember his refusal to mount a coup against a weak Blair after the Iraq war, his deference to John Smith when the Labour leader turned his back on modernisation?
Yet press support is waxing. Even The Daily Telegraph, the last true blue Tory newspaper, seldom bares its teeth. Local by-election results over the past fortnight in seats lost to the Tories in May’s elections have been good. Brown is reckoned even by his enemies to be “a brilliant campaign strategist” who could pick apart an opposition before it can resolve its identity crisis. I would be tempted to go for it but it’s not my job on the line.
Only a prime minister can make this lonely decision. The best strategists acknowledge that the timing is an instinct, a hunch that has to work with the grain of the leader’s personality. Blair and Margaret Thatcher were good at it; soon we will find out whether Brown, too, has the gift of timing.
