Andrew Green
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Just occasionally a series of events crystallises public opinion and transforms the political landscape. That is what has happened with immigration in the past fortnight. Three events stand out.
The crucial wake-up call was publication of the government’s latest population forecasts. They were truly shocking. They showed that, if immigration continues at the level the government now assumes, the population of the UK will grow by more than 10m in the next 25 years - that is equivalent to 10 cities the size of Birmingham; 70% of the increase will be due to immigration.
The public were taken aback by these numbers. They are now beginning to realise that we face the most critical decision for a generation. Not since the referendum on the Common Market in the 1970s have we confronted a decision that will so greatly affect the lives of our children and grandchildren. Do we set about a massive building programme, constructing a virtual Birmingham every 2½ years and do we accept the fundamental changes to our society that will flow from immigration on this scale? Or do we take action now to cut immigration sharply?
Next was David Cameron’s decision to speak about immigration for the first time in two years. His speech on Monday called for a “grown-up” debate, set out the dilemma in measured terms and outlined Conservative proposals for both an annual limit to immigration and, importantly, a substantial reduction in numbers.
He clearly struck a chord. It was not long before we had Labour and Conservatives competing to sound tough on immigration - an extraordinary transformation from the days when people hardly dared mention the topic for fear of being accused of racism.
The third event - if such it be - was the farcical episode when the government’s count of the new jobs taken by foreigners changed three times in a day, ending up roughly double where it began. The outcome was another blow to confidence in the government’s ability to manage immigration.
The genie is now well and truly out of the bottle. Public opinion is extremely strong - 80% disbelieve the government’s honesty and competence; 75% want to see an annual limit; two-thirds fear that our culture is under threat. Only one in three believe that immigration brings economic benefit to Britain.
The immigration lobby claims there is little that the government can do. It is all down to some mysterious force called “globalisation”. They are wrong. In fact, immigration to the UK took off in 1997. The prime cause was a series of policy errors by the present government. First, it abolished such border controls as it inherited. Then it trebled the number of work permits to 150,000 a year, plus dependants. Finally, it hopelessly miscalculated the inflow of east Europeans.
These policies can and should be reversed. The government could use its much-vaunted “points-based system” to throttle back sharply on work permits. The Australians, who have such a system, set a ceiling on immigration. So should we.
A ceiling would not apply to European Union citizens, but that is not a long-term problem. Before the recent enlargement, migration to and from the EU was roughly in balance and arrivals from the new east European members are now fairly steady at about 200,000 a year. The net inflow will decline as other EU members open their labour markets. Holland and half a dozen others have done so. The key countries, Austria, Germany and France, have kept their markets closed but restrictions have to be lifted in May 2011.
Added to that, as the economic level of east European countries approaches ours, there will be much less incentive to migrate. There was a blip for a few years when Spain, Portugal and Greece joined the EU but the net level of immigration has now fallen back.
Furthermore, those here will be more likely to go home. Many intend to spend several years here, save some money and then return to their families. As they do so, their numbers will counterbalance those still arriving so net immigration will fall.
Meanwhile, the pool of young people in eastern Europe will grow only slowly. The population of 18-year-olds in the two most populous countries, Poland and Romania, is projected to fall by about 30% in the next 10 years.
What this adds up to is that, over a decade or so, net east European immigration to the UK is likely to decline substantially. The real long-term problem is immigration from outside the EU. Here populations are growing rapidly and huge numbers of young people are without work and prospects. It is vital that our immigration system should be a barrier to such people.
Failure to act now will mean that our society will be changed beyond recognition - and especially our cities. London is one-third immigrant and half of all babies born there have a foreign parent. Other large cities will follow. According to one academic study, the ethnic community in Britain will grow from 9% to 29% by mid-century.
There is every reason for concern. The Commission for Racial Equality’s final report spoke frankly about growing segregation and of our society “fracturing”, with bonds of solidarity across different groups weakening, and tensions between people increasing. These are serious warnings. The CRE was in denial about the role of mass immigration in all this but the rest of us can see it clearly.
We can now at last speak about the elephant in the room. But when will our political leaders respond to the deep anxieties that so many of us feel? And will they get down to some serious action before it is, indeed, too late?
Sir Andrew Green is the chairman of Migrationwatch UK
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My trouble is, I deeply love an American woman. AND, even though I have two degrees, run a profitable business, and have a high IQ, America won't let me stay there, despite the obvious benefit I would provide.
So, I'm bringing my sweetheart back to England in the hopes of getting married and spending the rest of my life with her. She is also English speaking, and the same cultural slot as the majority of Brits, she should fit right in. I'm just hoping that at least I can keep her that way. It means she'll be giving up an executive job at a major company in America, and she's even happy to accept minimum wage jobs in England if it means being with me.
But this is SO depressing. First America has no place for me. Now events are transpiring to make it difficult for me and my future wife to be together back home. It seems like the world has no place for either of us. I wouldn't bet that this political dance doesn't lead to a few suicides. They forget they're dealing with actual humans.
A. Perry, Manchester, England
Mr. Clarke esq. rightly points out that British and Irish people have expanded across the globe. The difference between that migrationand today's immigration into Britain (and other countries of the 'Anglosphere') is that the people already living in the territories generally opposed it -- violently. In America we generally are taught to admire those such as Crazy Horse and Sitting Bull who opposed the taking of their lands. In contrast, in today's Britain, American, and Australia we have politicians who not only permit the massive influx of foreigners, but tax the 'natives' to pay for it.
Publius, Walthamstow, Londonistan
Whilst the EU might be the in thing at the moment the politicians, due to ill advised emotions forget that Her Majesty is head of the Commonwealth Countries the bulk of non EU countries so happening to have the majority dark coloured peope that brought about the Greatness of Britain.
munashe chavendera, Southend on sea, Essex
What Sir Andrew fails to acknowledge is the fact that the new comers are probably potential Labour voters. Labour really are disreputable. For years they have supported the British worker, encouraging his strikes, enforcing laws that enable non-compliance, joining the picket lines to demonstrate solidarity, anything to turn a free man into a dependent body. And then, at a whim, they abandon them, vilify them, fail to support him against undercutting, cite their inability to change, their abhorrence of the menial, label them 'benefits slugs' for their feasting on Government handouts. But what is worse they praise the foreign influx to a man, see nothing but good about the unknowable and uncountable. They damn their own with feint praise. If there is a credit crunch then is the indigenous poor that are going suffer because they have commitments here. The immigrant can always go leak back to the support of their families; our natives will just have to suffer, there is nowhere to go for them.
Malcolm Turner, Alsager, England
Andrew Green is right to state that non-EU immigration is the main problem. However I see "culture" rather then "economics" as the main cause of future problems. Non-EU immigration is by and large, of people whose culture and religion is so far distant from that of the UK, that it will lead to discord in the future.
For a nation to exist into the future, it must have a shared stake in that future, based on common aspirations, values and dreams. "Diversity" is thus the most idiotic concept to celebrate, for we are in essence, celebrating the death of our nation. We can see this destruction happening right before our eyes.
DaveP, Beverley, UK
I have applied to join the National Trust today and will give them donations to help them buy up land and prevent the Uk being concreted over to provide houses for the millions of immigrants New Labour are allowing in unchecked.
I agree, leave the EU it was supposed to be about trade, not millions of immigrants coming into the UK. The comment about the Human Rights act is spot on - it only applies to immigrants and crimminals, not UK citizens.
P Lee, Jersey,
You have completely missed the point - Europe is now a common market with labour mobility. I have friends, relatives who live and work in other EU countries. I am sorry but you are so incapable of living in the 21st century - your narrow view of Europe is quite simply breathtaking - believe it or not this is the largest economy in the world!!
Jon Kingsbury, Southampton, UK
An annual limit is not enough, Mr Green.
The great question for all Europe's native peoples is: do we have the right to exist as peoples, a right guaranteed through possession of own homelands? Or must we collectively submit to the slow, irrevocable processes of local displacement and deracination, and a future as atomised individuals?
If we have the right to be, then post- war immigration has been wrong in principle. If we have that right, then there are higher interests than economism. If we have that right, then liberalism itself is our mortal foe, and must be reformed.
(Post-war) immigration is part of a much larger existential question only addressed among the internet's radical-right thinkers and activists, with whom I associate myself. We attempt to formulate a basis on which European Man may survive into the future.
I thank Mr Green for his skill in operating in the manstream. But an immigration limit now will not give life in perpetuity to the English.
Guessedworker, Lewes, England
The fact is that the ambiguous British immigration system led to this shambles. Lack of swift action is the culture of this government, coupled with the judiciary systemâs Judges who often derail removals and slow down the operational work. We have thousands of foreign prisoners, and failed asylum seekers, it costs huge resources to keep them here. Politicians cannot present a clear policy, but manipulating the 'immigration' for party political scoring.
It is too true that we cannot escape the massive human Tsunami of EU migrants. But we have never voted on this issue. There must be some strict criteria, otherwise tension and pressure will severely harm our race relation.
H Marph , London ,
Sir Andrew is, as is usual, right on target. Signing up to the Social Chapter and the associated Human Rights legislation , then gold plating its implementation has landed us in this mess.
The U.K is a small country, our infrastructure cannot cope with those already here. Clearly we need to restrict immigration. Unfettered immigration is just another component of Blairs legacy.
We also need to change the hopeless tax credits system to favour work and smaller families. (If someone wants to have more than two children - that is their choice and at their, or their sponsors, expense).
Has anyone calculated the economic, social and cultural cost of those native-borne citizens of the U.K who , as a result of these policies and consequent pressures, have thrown in the towel and emigrated?
Tim Black
TMJ Black, Southampton, U.K.
Sir Andrew talks sense as always, but he does not go far enough. I never thought I would advocate leaving the EU, but can see that is our only option when it comes to regaining control of our borders. We also need to scrap the crazy and damaging Human Rights Act, which seems to confer more rights on foreign criminals than on our own citizens and we need to withdraw from the Geneva Convention on Refugees, which is well past its sell-by date and has become a vehicle for would be economic migrants. This country is in desperate peril and only desperate measures will do!
Richard, Worcester, England
I back Eddie' s (Bristol) comments. Let the impact of mass immigration be felt by all, especially those who espouse it. A couple I know moved house recently to secure a place in a good primary school for their son. When I asked about it, they said that the schools in our London neighbourhood are full of kids who don't speak English and they didn't think their son would have a decent education. Of course, they said this in the nicest possible way, because they are nice middle class, liberally-inclined people. Exactly the kind of people who welcome unchecked immigration. Well, I say to all those who want unfettered immigration, put your money where your mouth is. Come and live in my area, where you never hear English on the streets, in the shops or in the schools, where services are dangerously overstretched and where there is no binding sense of community, just various highly segregated and inward-looking communities, none of which appear to feel any alleigance to the UK.
LJ, London,
Altogether, there are about 192,000,000 people of British and Irish descent living throughout the world. Of these only 29%, or around 55,000,000 people to be exact, live in the British Isles and the Republic of Ireland. If there is a centre of the anglo-celtic world, then it is North America. Strange then that we so hastily forget we are a nation of emigrants and immigrants when debating this issue. If our island race had not left its shores and headed off in search of a better place then the world would look a hell of a lot different.
Humphrey Clarke esq, London, England
The government has failed yet again in one of the most important areas - it has failed to protect our borders. It has allowed hordes of illegal imigrants, not to say the legal ones into our country. For once we want an 'initiatve' from these bufoons that will not be merely self serving publicity.
Diddly Do, Liverpool,
It is worse than Sir Andrew fears. As the eastern European countries run short of labour, they take in immigrants from outside the EU, thus keeping wages low and encouraging their own citizens to move to countries like Britain. Then there are countries like Spain granting amnesties for illegal immigrants, so even more can come here.
The only answer is for Britain to regain control of its borders. That means leaving the EU. We cannot go on concreting over the countryside indefinitely.
John , Norwich, England
Sir Andrew, with all due respect and given due credit for your sterling work in migration matters, you may well be missing the point by as much as our esteemed government.
The point of the immigration debate is not that our government has made a mess of the numbers. Did they perceive it to be in their economic interests, a Tory government would do precisely the same thing. Nor is the point some inflamatory statistic about foreigners taking jobs in Britain versus Britons taking jobs in Britain.
The point of the immigration debate is a political class that regards the society it is supposed to serve as nothing more than tax donkeys - beasts of burden who can be flogged to work ever harder to finance grand political plans completely disassociated from the needs of British citizens.
Until Britons get off their behinds and show the British political class more repercussions than a low turnout at elections, there is little hope for Britain to regain any responsive government.
John Blackley, Austin, TX, USA
There should be a moratorium on ALL immigration for at least five years to allow time to determine just who is presently in country then to formulate a sensible policy regarding future admittance numbers and desired qualifications and skills.
This should include fair processes to identify true asylum seekers from otherwise economic migrants.
Stan(expat), Texas, USA
The apparatchiks of this governmentâits MPs, the BBC and liberal pressâand the wealthy business bosses, who profit from Britainâs global sweatshop of imported cheap labour, must be the ones are made responsible for mass immigration. Instead of building more houses, our first priority should be to divide up the homes of the wealthiest and make room for the added population. Maximum capacity per household should be based on an average household space of the working majority. Those with second homes should have these divided up (John Prescott, the Royal Family, Tony Blair, for example). Hence, the effects of mass immigration would be much more fairly distributed and the benefits of multiculturalism would be brought much closer to the rich and powerfulârather than just being enjoyed by the working classes.
Eddie Pratt, Bristol, UK