2 for 1 tickets to Casablanca, this coming Monday
Earlier this month one of the most significant figures in human history, Paul Tibbets, died aged 92. Tibbets flew the plane that dropped the A-bomb on Hiroshima. Ever since, political leaders have faced the immanent risk of the destruction of civilisation through design or miscalculation. In response, every British government has supported the development and maintenance of an independent nuclear deterrent. What were the reasons, how far were they were justified and are they applicable to policymaking now?
A book published last week, Cabinets and the Bomb, by the historian Peter Hennessy, provides a remarkable documentary record of these deliberations. The story is told through declassified Cabinet and Cabinet committee papers, and is supplemented by expert annotations and references to other contemporary sources. It makes clear that, while underlying policy has been consistent, the arguments deployed to support an independent deterrent have shifted markedly. They comprise, in the words of the former MoD official Sir Michael Quinlan, “a set of rationales to clothe that gut decision”.
But the initial gut decision to develop a deterrent was far from irrational. In August 1945 the new Prime Minister, Clement Attlee, wrote a terse memorandum in which he noted: “We recognise, or some of us did before this war, that bombing could only be answered by counter bombing... The answer to an atomic bomb on London is an atomic bomb on another great city.” Coupled with his conviction that “this invention has made it essential to end wars”, Attlee had encapsulated the notion of mutual deterrence by counter-city targeting. There was no necessary reason that postwar Britain, with its enfeebled economy, should then have sought an independent nuclear deterrent. But Nato had not yet been formed, and America's continued commitment to Europe's defence was uncertain. In 1946 Congress prohibited the sharing of nuclear information with any other country. In Cabinet, the Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin insisted — apparently after a long lunch — that, with regard to the A-bomb, “we've got to have the bloody Union Jack on top of it”.
Considering the party's later temporary aversion to nuclear defence, it is worth recalling that the independent deterrent was Labour's creation.
When he took office again in 1951, Winston Churchill was astonished to discover the extent of his predecessor's atomic programme, kept secret from the full Cabinet as well as Parliament. (“I thought that some of them were not fit to be trusted with secrets of this kind,” Attlee later explained.) Churchill's principal adviser on atomic energy, Lord Cherwell, archly wrote: “I am agreeably surprised that the socialist Government was sufficiently imaginative and patriotic to risk the parliamentary criticism to which this might expose them.” Churchill's Government took the momentous decision to develop an H-bomb programme. The PM's own metaphor in expounding that proposal to his Cabinet colleagues is a piece of social history in itself. The H-bomb was, said Churchill, the “Badge to the Royal Enclosure [at Ascot]”.
Britain had — in Dean Acheson's astute formulation — lost an empire and not yet found a role. But the bomb might confer some prestige.
The independent deterrent has its origins in uncertainty over the transatlantic relationship. The Nassau agreement between President Kennedy and Harold Macmillan, under which Britain bought Polaris submarines from the US, ameliorated (though did not dispel) those concerns. While the Cold War persisted, the case for an independent deterrent thus emphasised the marginal benefits of the UK being a “second centre of decision-making” within Nato, lest an aggressor were tempted to test the US commitment to Europe.
Yet the present Government's case for upgrading Trident appears more geared to national than collective security. Trident provides (in Tony Blair's words) “the necessary assurance that no aggressor can escalate a crisis beyond UK control”. The subtle shift is perhaps surprising, given the recent warmth of transatlantic relations. Mr Blair's formulation is nonetheless probably the best justification for the independent deterrent in our “second nuclear age” — the age that succeeds the relatively stable superpower relationship of the Cold War.
Trident will be operational until around the middle of this century. We cannot know the threats that this country will face over those decades. We ought prudently to expect, however, that nuclear weapons will become the property of the worst of states. We have scant information on the totalitarian nightmare-state and nuclear aspirant, North Korea. We know far more about Iran's nuclear programme, most particularly the sheer unlikelihood of its being intended purely for the generation of electricity. (Enrichment facilities at Natanz and a heavy water plant at Arak — before a single reactor has come into service — make little sense for a purely civil nuclear capability.)
If we give up our independent deterrent, our decision will have no effect on states such as these. They will carry on building. The capital cost of renewing Trident will amount to about 3 per cent of the defence budget, and there is no reason to suppose that the costs will run out of control. The only way to deter a nuclear attack is, as Attlee instinctively perceived at the start of the nuclear age, and as his successors have all agreed, to possess nuclear weapons.
It is the uncertainty of an anarchic international order that has persuaded British governments to maintain the deterrent. That is the gut decision at the heart of this debate. It remains the right one.
Enjoy screenings of all the classic films you love.
Have you ever dreamed of owning your own racehorse or a beautiful painting?
Enjoy comfort, safety, space and great design. Plus enter our great competition
Are you California dreaming? Explore the wonders of the Golden State. Also enter our fantastic competition
Do you have what it takes to be a Times photographer?
Your brain is capable of more than you might think...
Find out to make the most of your money with our wealth management guides
Need help with your property? We have an entire how to guide - buying, selling, letting, moving, to help you
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
We are seeking entries for the inaugural Sunday Times Best Green Companies Awards
Enjoy some wonderful inspiring wildlife moments
An interactive preview of the brand new For Your Eyes Only exhibition

Love Sudoku? Play our brand new interactive game: with added functionality and daily prizes

Are you irritable when you return from work? Drained of emotion? You could be suffering from boreout
Prepare for some shock and awe, petrol lovers. Despite the greens trying to wipe it out, the car is about to offer us the most exciting year ever
We've trawled the brochures and websites to find this summer’s best holidays for every taste and budget


Why good girls pay good money for bad-girl baubles

Search The Times Births, Deaths & Marriage announcements
2007/07
£57,500
South East England
2007/57
£22,950
The Midlands
2006/06
£41,995
South East England
Great car insurance deals online
£40-55k+benefits+uncapped commission
Morgan Keating
South East
£60k plus excellent benefits
Barclaycard
Stockton / Northampton
£
£55,000 - £75,000 plus bonus and benefits
Diligenta
Based in Peterborough
£45,000 - £70,000 plus bonus and benefits
Diligenta
Based in Peterborough
Globrix, the property search engine
Visit Times Online Property for homes for sale or rent
Residential development site with planning permission
£1,500,000
Mortgages, bank accounts & money transfers to help you buy abroad
Dinarobin Hotel Golf & Spa 7 nights
From £1830 per person – saving £530.
Smart prices on ATOL protected holidays
Excellent online info & holiday selection.
Walt Disney World Resort Florida SALE!
From £619 per person!
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times. Search globrix.com to buy or rent UK property.
© Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
In the next 10 years we're almost certainly going to have defend and probably retake the Falklands from a south american invasion.
With nuclear weapons that war is a formality, without, we have to wonder can we really win it?
âthe necessary assurance that no aggressor can escalate a crisis beyond UK controlâ
With nuclear weapons, we can win any war against someone without them, simple as.
They are an instant, if genocidal, "I Win" button
Dominic, Manchester, UK
So, what you are saying is that, on the one hand, getting rid of our (illegal) 'deterrant' will not stop Iran and North Korea, and on the other hand, having the nuclear 'deterrant' has not stopped Iran or North Korea.
Doesn't sound like much of a 'deterrant' to me.
But, wait! We started an (illegal) war against someone with WMD - but we claim WMD are a deterrant. Surely that means either a) WDM are not a deterrant; or b) Bush & Blair knew that Iraq didn't have any..... which is it?
This article is codswollop - the USA and USSR fought proxy wars constantly through the first nuclear age. If an unstable regime chooses to attack us, it will do so regardless of our arsenal of illegal, immoral, arms race creating, moral highground losing, terrorist attracting, indiscriminately murdering 'deterrants'.
Rich, Edinburgh, Scotland.
Richard from Norwich, you are absolutely right. You cannot undevelop nuclear weapons anymore than you can disinvent the cooker or refrigirator. You can prevent rogue powers from developing them but cannot conceivably pretend they ever existed. If you get rid of nuclear weapons, you put us at risk of even worst conventional, blological warfare, and the first country to win that war will be the one that gets a nuclear weapon again as was the case in 1945.
In todays anarchic world, where much of it remains isolated from interdependency and globalisation, we do not know where the next risk is, whether it be a resurgent Russia or an Islamofascist Iran spreading its tentacles. As a result, we need to continue development of Missile Defence as a deterrent and a potential umbrella to rogue states who could be persuaded to give up WMD. All those talking of eliminating the nuclear option are either naive or steeped in old cold war thinking and need to get with the modern world
Vincent La Placa, London, UK
Richard, Norwich
The Kaiser and his cabinet not only expected but desired war in 1914, and had been actively planning for war from 1912.
The arguments for nuclear disarmament assume certain common assumptions and interests between all parties, nation-states or otherwise, who could conceivably acquire and deploy nuclear weapons. If just one group doesn't share, or doesn't believe themselves to share, that position the case for nuclear disarmament disintegrates.
The doctrine of mutually assured destruction, while no longer effective against all possible enemies is still effective against many, including most of those currently most dangerous.
While we should not stop searching for technological, political and strategic ways of rendering nuclear weapons redundant no government, midnful of their primary responsibility to their own democratic electors, could refuse nuclear weapons or permit potentially hostile regimes to develop them.
Tom Foster, London, UK
Simply stating there is no rationale for UK nuclear weapons is hardly a rationale arguement. For those that are not able to deploy rationale arguements or understand one (even if they disagree with Mr. Kamm's view ) there last defence is to muddy the water with random statements of what they consider fact but is actually opinion. Nuclear weapons clearly deterred the Soviets so there is evidence of there value as a deterrence. As Mr. Kamm acknowledges they do not deter others from building them, they simply provide us with some independent protection in the event they are succesful in developing their own "Bomb". Further the reason Iran and Korea want to develop WMD is for the same reason any aggressive, intolerent and absolutist regime wants to develop a more advanced milatary; so they expand their power and influence over others. The only thing balancing this is our willingness to stop them now or in the event thet are succesful the deterrence effect of our weapons v. their ambition
Ben , New York, USA
Joe in Edinburgh:
When a Prime Minister or President of a First World country starts ranting about the need to eliminate another member state of the UN, your concerns about unfairness and hypocrisy in relation to Iran may become relevant.
melk, Cincinnati, USA
There is no rationale for a UK nuclear weapon of any kind - including our tactical weapons.
We can't even run our own country coherently, let alone see a clear direction in world politics. Who on earth is going to threaten what is left of the british ethos and way of life?
Mike Poulsen, Reading, Berkshire
nuclear weapons are a useful tool however the replacement of trident is expensive and unnecessary
What is wrong with keeping nuclear bombs and dropping them from planes , surely much cheaper and far more reliable.
With the utterly abysmal and despicable way this government treats the armed forces ,who in the future will want to join a shrinking ,underfunded navy to sail in these highly complex submarines ?
The iranians don't need to develop their own weapon they can just hop on a submarine straying into iranian waters and take all the ipods
Guy, hamburg, Germany
Iran and North Korea will keep building anyway.
Posession of nuclear weapons does not serve as a deterrent, it inspires less secure and stable countries to attempt to build their own.
Hannah, Telford,
So it is right for us to develop a nuclear program and continue with this in order to maintain a mutual destruction protection but not Iran.
Would this be a little hypocritical, we have nothing to fear from anyone as the EU and America would protect its interests here but Iran has a lot to fear from the Americans.
Iran knows it is Americas intention to ensure oil supplies and as it is sitting on a very large amount it is only time before they are invaded.
joe, Edinburgh, Scotland
This debate would get much more interesting if Trident was based in the great city of London (since this is what its protecting?).
Derek, Dollar, Scotland
So, it's just a toy for the egomaniacs in Downing Street.
Eddie Reader, birmingham, england
Well, for my part, I quite agree with Oliver Kamm's line.
Necessarily, only those states possessing nuclear weapons, should be allowed to retain them, with a future or present hope or disarming.
But Blair was quite right. Without weapons of our own, we are vulnerable. And a major war can occur surprisingly fast - who expected a major war in 1914?
Finally, the point of a deterrent is in the NATO policy of "no first use", but overwhelming retaliation. The idea is to make the cost of a nuclear attack so high as to be politically impossible.
Richard, Norwich,
Absolutely effectiveness alone justifes the decision to replace
Trident. The other valid reasons for replacing Trident are just
icing on the cake.
Denver Watt, Osaka,
We do not have an independant deterrent,try pointing it at a target the USA does not agree with even if we were under threat.I may be behind the times but at one time trident could not be launched by us without the relevant software codes from the Americans.As for anarchic international order,it seems to have appeared with the help of those already in posession of nuclear weapons,ie USA ,Israel,Pakistan,N.Korea,some are breaking the NPTothers have not even signed up to it.This comment is not an advocation of nuclear free for all,just less hypocracy,lets get rid of all nuclear weapons.those who cannot manufacture them will,sooner or later,buy them.
JohnP, Newcastle, UK
The same arguments given above could be used to justify everyone from Algeria to Zambia developing their own nuclear weapons - who wouldn't want to be in the Royal Enclosure?
Unconstrained proliferation will be a disaster, so what arguments can be developed to convince states that they do not need H-bombs?
Cyril Berkeley, KL, Malaysia