Richard Dowden
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Shocked by pictures of death and mayhem on the streets of Kenyan towns, a Kenyan friend in Britain called me to express her shock. “But these things don't happen in Kenya!” she exclaimed, as if Kenya - or Keenya as she pronounced it - was immune from the political ills that have plagued Africa in the past 50 years.
She is wrong. Kenya has been a catastrophe waiting to happen. Every election since multiparty politics was reintroduced in 1991 has involved rigging. So far the margin of victory has always been so great that Western diplomats - keen to maintain “stability” - could claim that the cheating would not have made a difference to the result. “Voting broadly reflected the will of the people” was their duplicitous phrase that allowed the ruling elite to play their quinquennial charade.
Now the margin of victory is too thin. The cheating did make a difference and Raila Odinga, the leader of the main opposition party that has won the largest number of seats in parliament and six out of eight provinces, is not going to accept defeat.
Kenya is not just another African country. Suffering only one - failed - coup attempt in 45 years of independence, its stability makes Nairobi, the capital, the base for transnational corporations, the United Nations and scores of NGOs for East and Central Africa. It is also a beautiful country with well-run game parks for tourists, mountains, lakes and gorgeous Indian Ocean beaches. Unlike many African countries, Kenya's strong professional class has never fled and have driven economic growth at about 5 per cent in the past four years. Kenyans are lucky. The country has no single natural resource, such as oil, to enrich the elite and impoverish everyone else. Kenyans have to work for their money and recently they have done well.
Yet in 2005 a poll found that more than half of Kenyans thought the economy was doing badly. According to Afrobarometer, a continent-wide research project, the most important issue for most Kenyans was equality, both of opportunity and availability of resources. That was an indirect way of saying that the Kikuyu, the ethnic group of President Mwai Kibaki and Kenya's largest, was getting everything to the exclusion of everyone else. Mr Kibaki came in on an anti-corruption ticket but approval of the Government's anti-corruption programme fell in his first three years from 85 per cent to 40 per cent. The reason was simple. Intense internal and international pressure forced Mr Kibaki to appoint John Githongo, a former journalist and corruption campaigner, as anti-corruption czar.
He also commissioned a public inquiry into the Goldenberg scam, through which some $600 million was stolen from the Treasury in the 1990s. Thousands of Kenyans attended the hearings, sitting quietly but bug-eyed as they heard an extraordinary tale of theft and deceit. Meanwhile, Mr Githongo commissioned Kroll, a private security firm, to trace, freeze and return the money lodged in accounts all over the world.
Kroll reported that much of the money was in accounts owned by sons of President Moi, but once these details became available to senior figures in Kibaki's Government, the second and third stages of the process, freezing and recovery, were abandoned. A deal was done. Shortly afterwards Mr Githongo fled for his life and, even in a British haven, was given an armed bodyguard. With good reason. The Kenyan elite have a history of killing people who ask questions about corruption.
Kenyan politics are more than a lucrative game of musical chairs for the elite. They are the most vicious and tribalised on the continent. Politicians often address their own people in coded language. “It is our turn to eat!” is a phrase they often use. It means that it is the turn of our ethnic group to rule — and loot as much as we can.
In 2002 Mr Odinga left Moi's Government and delivered his Luo ethnic group to Mr Kibaki's newly formed Rainbow Alliance. The agreement — in writing — was that Mr Kibaki would change the constitution, create a powerful post of prime minister and appoint Mr Odinga. Once in power Mr Kibaki changed his mind. He presented a new constitution that retained a powerful presidency. Mr Odinga, given the minor transport ministry, left the government in disgust. A brilliant orator and campaigner, he whipped up opposition to Mr Kibaki's new constitution and defeated it in a referendum.
The voting figures showed just how ethnically divided the country had become. The Kikuyu voted for it. Most of the rest against.
Riding the wave, Mr Odinga forged the Orange coalition for this election that brought together four other leading politicians and their communities. Only the Kikuyu were missing. They were convinced they would win. Now aged 62, Raila (his name means stinging nettle) Odinga has been in opposition politics most of his life. He is not a man to throw in the towel. The gang around Mr Kibaki have too much to lose if Mr Odinga comes to power. The scene is set for all-out war between the Kikuyu and the rest, a war that kicked off on Sunday afternoon as Luo and Kikuyu attacked each other in towns in Nairobi and elsewhere.
Are Kenya's institutions strong enough to withstand this near civil war? The police will do the President's bidding but there are doubts about the Army, one of the most professional in Africa. Many of its senior officers are reported to be unhappy about soldiers shooting down demonstrators on behalf of a politician who may not be around for long.
America has accepted the result; European election observers said the process was not convincing. With South Africa's leadership in turmoil and Nigeria also suffering from a failed election earlier this year, it is hard to see who in Africa could bring both sides together. Without concerted international diplomatic intervention, Kenyans may be left to fight it out.
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MAX CUMMINGS, What makes the EU delegation the sole authority on the authenticity of the results? just because they are the EU ? please , spare me that nonsense.
The myth that Raila won 6 provinces is just that, a myth. Raila won 4 provinces Coast, RV,Nyanza and Western, while kibaki won the rest.
Kibaki's weakest province was Nyanza where he garnered 17% of the vote unlike Raila, who got 2 and 5 % in his weakest areas i.e. Central and Eastern.
For you information, the government offered to retally the votes but Raila flatley refused..maybe because he knows the truth will finally be discovered about how his ODM was also involved in rigging. Raila is just mad that he got beat at his own game.
Kibaki will be the president for another 5 yrs, he's not stepping down and Raila already demonstrated por leadership with all the violence and hooliganism. Raila will never be president.
the world will soon discover what a bunch of evil liers ODM are, plus their sponsorship of genoci
Dineli, Providence ,RI,
Karanja Waweru
perhaps you have a point but it's due to dogmatic tradition and narrow minded views like yours among these groups that such animosity generally exists. It really doesn't have to amount to this.
Kenya will not degenerate into civil war in spite of the tension and current violence. There's one thing about Kenyans having a seemingly hard coded tendency towards peace and this I believe is no exception.
True, there can be no meaningful dialogue between the two parties if Kibaki hangs onto power as the vote clearly shows he shouldn't be there in the first place yet who ever heard of an African leader stepping down voluntarily??
Raila's call for peaceful protests is greatly welcome and I have an inkling that we will see the rarest of scenarios take shape in an otherwise typical African situation.
Kenya will score a first to the surprise of many who dismiss it as a just another example of African folly
Don A., Manchester, UK
This writer is a tad biased. Your view of the situation seems too objective to portray it in its full light. In addition, I don't believe that Kenyan politics is any nastier than what we see in the west. After all we have just been done a massive and blatant injustice which is simply unacceptable judging by the standards to which we have reached. People naturally are reacting how they choose because their very democratic right was openly challenged by the very people with the power to do something about it. So that comment was a bit harsh. We have been peaceful for 45 years despite everything. Even now radio stations and media are preaching peace. How many nations can say the same?
selongo, Mombasa,
Spare me! The EU delegation clearly pointed out that the election was rigged. Govt pressure forced the electoral commision to pronounce Kibaki president and thus condemN Raila to the corridors of 'justice'. A court case will take years to be determined while Kibaki continues with his illegitimate rule. All it needs is re-tallying of the votes and Kibaki's lie will be revealed. I was personally present at one of the constituencies where election officials announced Kibaki had 54 thousand votes. However at the national level the commission annouced he had 75 thousand votes! Whichever way you look at it, Kibaki is in power illegally!
Max Cummings, Nairobi, Kenya
Surely your 'expertise' on Africa should tell you that there are often multiple facets to any 'african story'. It appears you have allowed yourself to be carried away by the plot line. Your explanation is too simple. In your capacity as the director of the RAS, you are in a position to enlighten your readers with both sides of the story so please don't waste the opportunity. I agree that the shenanigans from the PNU camp have been nothing short of deplorable but it is a sad day when Raila & co. are suddenly referred to as the good guys. His camp consists of a man who engineered a coup over two decades ago, a man currently on trial for defrauding the National Social Security Fund, another responsible for the 1992 ethnic clashes.... I could go on. And only God knows what they had up their sleeves had they been granted victory. Your assertions just add fuel to the ethnic fire that is currently burning. Can I suggest writing a more balanced piece when you next have the privilege.
Kabura, London,
I would presume that most of the problems that you have outlined in this corruption case will be found in a similar European context; less the bug eyed attendance, of course.
Henry Percy, London, UK
Who cares how people pronounce words or names? Kenya, Keenya, it's all the same. Trivial, small-minded to even mention it.
One machete wielding man? If only. There are hundreds if not thousands more. So again, who cares about a picture?
Divide the country on racial lines, for that is what tribalism is, though many leftists and other racists deny it, is to put back history. Dark days ahead when it happens. Just have a look at Sierra Leone. There are no easy solutions in Africa. The Kikuyu will not share the countries wealth and resources -that's a given. There is no Your turn now ethic but then again without force majeure this applies almost everywhere. Time for the army to step in but then will they ever go? Don't hold your breath and for all those Kenyan posters who have left the country and are now in Canada or wherever the least you could do is be rational, careful and avoid racism.
E. Purgold, Cambs, UK
maybe we need to send the British back to restore law & order?
Graham, Washington DC,
Well done, you managed to write the entire article without mentioning the word 'sharia' once! Now I don't know how much credence one can put on the below news reports, but surely they are worth a mention. Why with-hold pertinent information?
http://www.christiantoday.com/art
icle/kenyan.christians.could.be.subjected.to.sharia.law/15638.htm
http://www.persecution.org/suffering/ICCnews/newsdetail.php?newscode=6643&title=kenyan-citizens-to-be-subjected-to-sharia
"Leading Kenyan Presidential Candidate promises Sharia in exhange for Muslim votes"
Bernie, London, UK
There is only one reasonable solution to the current Kenya's political turmoil. Let Kibaki heed the will of the people of Kenya and step down! We all know that he was not elected president. He knows he was not elected. The ECK chairman who declared him winner knows for sure that Kibaki lost. I wonder if these people (Kivuitu and Kibaki) have a conscience. The opposition has no option but to air their aggrived feelings and tell Kibaki to vacate the State House.
It is unfortunate people are dying, and Kibaki is turning a deaf ear. Infact, if any people are to die now, it should be Kivuitu and Kibaki - not these innocent souls.
And if Kibaki does not willingly vacate State House, let the International Community come in to salvage Kenya. I hail the EU report and its recommendations, and the fact that US and UK governments have so far refrained from 'recognising' Kibaki as legitimate president. I support the four ECK commissioners for coiming out to tell the truth of what transpired
Ansbert Ngurumo, Hull, UK
Sadly no one in authority in the West seems to care about African politics/corruption as proven by Mugabe's appearance at the EU summit, DR Congo mineral concessions, Rwanda etc. South Africa should be the continent's policeman, yet their qualifications are now dubious. Maybe it is time to partition some of these huge nations on a tribal basis rather than the arbitary, Colonial boundaries.
G, England, UK
yes i think it's just about time that these people took their majimbo and let the agikuyu rule themselve,it's unimaginable for a JAILBIRD to govern a country,let alone a Family.
GOD bless our country and if the issue cannot be resolved central can become a country by itself.
FRANCIS M.MURAYA, Vancouver, WA, U.S.A.
As a Kenya in the USA it is quite shocking to see what has happened to our country but I cannot say I'm totally surprised. The falt line - tribalism - that has only been kept quiet by some very delicate balances has now erupted. My family reports of violence and panic and the outlawed mungiki sect in the slums of Nairobi attacking Luos and circumsized like 90 before the police stepped in. The animosity between Luos and kikuyu is so deep that it will take an extraordinary statesman to restore civility between them; harmony and tranquility in the rest of the country.
If we had a longer tradition Raila would challenge the results legally but eventually concede as Al Gore did here in 2000.
ANDREW, Prospect, USA
I agree with the views of Harpreet and those of Karnja as well. I think that Kenyan problems can only be solved by Devolving power and creating a Federalist state that is based on the tribes. What is Kenya? It is something created by the British and does not mean much to us who live in this country. I am from Western Province and I voted for Raila because he promised to do just this. I feel that given the Kikuyu would benefit from such a federalist system, they should have voted for Raila so that they can have a province of their own where Luos or my fellow Luhyas would not rule over them directly. I think that to leave the country as it is, is tantamount to destroying it. This is because as Karanja has observed, why should we subject communities to the rule of individuals that they do not want to rule over them. I have never been proud to be a Kenyan. In fact I am proud to be my ethnicity - Luhya more than Kenyan. The other communities do not like a Kikuyu ruling over them as well.
Osimbo Echesa, Mumias, Kenya, Kenya
Why can't GEMA have a Luo govern them? Who do they think they are? This is exactly the kind of primitive, asanine mentality that is sickening and is, in no small part, causing all the problems in Kenya. The presidency should not be a zero sum game. ODM was going to reduce the powers of the presidencey which would in turn reduce the stakes of holding that office making it easier for people like Kibaki to give it up. Kibaki, because of his actions of the past week, will be remendered as the man who destroyed Kenya. My respect for him has vanished and if he continues on this path it will be hard not to have nothing but contempt for him and his legacy.
Andrew, NYC
Andrew, New York City, USA
Anyone who prounounces Kenya as 'Keenya' is usually someone who lives in an affluent suburb of Nairobi and lives a life of relative delusional luxury. I was born in Nairobi and the reports coming out of Kenya are frustrating, confusing and conerning. Like a few months before, the media ban on live reports is also disgusting. I am deeply concerned yet I can not bear to watch the bbc one more time because all they seem to be showing is one machete wielding man. For those of us who have lived in Africa, a lot of what the media uses to shock the rest of the world is somewhat selective. I am hoping that this mess will be resolved peacefully and quickly, because there is a country full of people who deserve better than to be toyed around and robbed of their democracy by a few corrupt leaders.
Harpreet, London,
I believe it is time for the GEMA ( Gikuyu, Embu, Meru and Akamba) to separate from the rest of the other tribal groups. Collectively as a group, they can not and will not allow a Luo to govern them.
Kenya is an amalgamation of many groups diverse from each other as English is to Italian. They will not and connot function together. Uhuru wa andu a Gema.
Karanja waweru, Toronto, Canada