Forget the patronising encomiums to the Rev Ian Paisley from such long-time foes as Gerry Adams and the British and Irish governments: the truth is that “the Doc” is shuffling off the political stage as a pathetic shadow of his former self.

One by one, the pillars upon which the Rev Doctor's eminence depended have collapsed. First, he had to relinquish his Moderatorship of the Free Presbyterians, the denomination that he founded in 1951: the faithful turned out to be deeply unhappy with his decision to enter office with Sinn Fein. When it came to making a choice between the baubles of this world and the spiritual leadership of his flock, Mr Paisley opted for the former.

This presaged deeper problems among the voters of middle Ulster. The DUP's dramatic underperformance in an important council by-election in Dromore - when an independent Unionist candidate siphoned off a large number of votes - signalled the feelings of betrayal in the Loyalist heartland. Never before had Mr Paisley so misjudged their mood.

Finally, “the Doc” had to give up the services of Ian Jr, his closest collaborator - forced to resign from the devolved executive following a rumpus over alleged connections to a property developer. The result was that Mr Paisley lost control of the DUP, the party he set up in 1971.

So a new dynasty seems set to supplant the Paisleys - the political family Robinson, led by the DUP's long-time deputy leader, Peter Robinson. Senior British officials have long fancied him to be a pragmatist with whom they can do business. But does the sour-faced uncharismatic technocrat have the sectarian capital in the bank to complete the unfinished business of Paisley's First Ministership - namely the devolution of policing and justice powers, perhaps even under a Sinn Fein Minister of Home Affairs?

Mr Robinson may take the hint from the Unionist grass roots. He could recalibrate the aesthetics of power-sharing with Sinn Fein - eschewing the sickly-sweet “Chuckle Brothers” routine between Martin McGuinness and Mr Paisley (“like the smell of shit mixed with cheap air freshener”, in the words of one local wag) for a more distant public relationship with the nationalists.

But for now, some of the younger DUP modernisers reckon that they have salvaged the long-term viability of the devolved Executive. Rather like those Labour stalwarts who believed that all would be well for the people's party once Gordon Brown supplanted Tony Blair, so the newer cadres in the DUP may calculate that an enfeebled Mr Paisley was all that stood between them and “50 years of cross-community misrule”. They may turn out to be just as disappointed.

Dean Godson is research director of Policy Exchange

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