Princess Haya Bint Al Hussein
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What will we promise the world's hungry this time? When I was a girl, my father, King Hussein of Jordan, related a story about the last global food crisis and a famous promise made to the world's hungry by Henry Kissinger, who was then US Secretary of State.
Dr Kissinger came to Amman after attending the World Food Conference in Rome in 1974, called hastily as global food prices skyrocketed and widespread hunger threatened to engulf the developing world. Secretary Kissinger related how he had boldly pledged that within a decade, no child would go to bed hungry anywhere in the world.
You have to give him credit for being ambitious and inspired, but sadly, more than three decades later, there are more hungry children in the world than there are Americans. That number grows with each passing week, as once relatively well-fed families in Cameroon, Indonesia and Egypt struggle to cope with the rising cost of a decent meal.
In the 1970s, global market conditions eventually improved, thanks in part to the dramatic impact of the Green Revolution in South Asia. But the development banks, aid agencies and donors soon forgot the lesson of the crisis, cutting in half the percentage of aid they devoted to agriculture despite repeated warnings by the Food and Agriculture Organisation.
Developing country governments did no better and failed to invest enough in agriculture. They looked the other way when the number of hungry started to grow again in the 1990s. In short, when it comes to food, the donor community has been asleep at the wheel, or at the very least dozing: they were warned for years by the World Food Programme that rising food and transport prices were cutting into their deliveries on the ground.
The symptoms of an emerging food crisis have been around for a while and visible to anyone willing to see them. First, there were riots in Mexico City over the price of maize and then suddenly the price of farmland in Iowa was rising faster than real estate in Belgravia or Manhattan. The European Union, which for years accumulated surplus lakes of oil and mountains of grains, began asking its farmers to put land back into production and milk was in short supply. Meanwhile, the United States quietly dropped all subsidies of its grain producers and experienced a near-explosion in food exports. And finally, consumers across the world have begun to protest as they pay more to buy the family groceries; the riots that began in Mexico City have spread to other cities.
Even if global economic output dips this year as forecast, demand for food will still strain supplies, and as one market forecaster put it: “Food will become the next oil.” And so, we are finally paying attention.
Rising food costs are very worrisome for many, but they are downright dangerous for the 850 million chronically hungry people who do not earn enough to afford this newspaper. Even when food was relatively cheap, these people suffered malnutrition and disease that left them cut off from the global rise in incomes. Their stunted children had little hope for the future and even less now.
So far, the donor response to hunger outside well-publicised emergencies such as Darfur has been tepid at best. While, on the surface, it looks like Official Development Assistance is at historically high levels, topping $100 billion, much of this is debt relief and has little impact on the price of a meal in Africa's rural villages. Aid transfers to sub-Saharan Africa - where one person in three is chronically hungry - have actually declined recently. Worse yet, food aid has dropped to its lowest level since Dr Kissinger's famous speech in Rome, plummeting to 6.7 million tonnes in 2006, less than half the level in 2000. And no one really sounded the alarm bell when it happened.
Now the World Bank and bilateral donors are scrambling to compensate for the lack of investment in agriculture over decades. But that may not be so easy: just to feed the same number of needy people this year the World Food Programme has appealed for an extra $500 million.
President Bush's announcement of a $200 million release from the US emergency reserve will help, but stocks worldwide are at frighteningly low levels. A curb in biofuels production might help too... but economists note that this will have little impact on wheat and rice output or address the fundamental issue of growing Asian demand.
So what more can be done? The £1 billion initiative by the former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, with the Gates and Rockefeller foundations to create a Green Revolution for Africa, is one bright spot on the horizon. It was, after all, the first Green Revolution that helped India so much during the food shortages of the 1970s. But in the meantime, the message to donors, public and private, is simple: Food must come first. The world's poorest live in farming areas: new seeds, small-scale irrigation and educational services will help them to turn their lives around.
Let's hope there are no more false promises and we do our very best to deliver what Henry Kissinger so proudly promised to the world's children more than three decades ago - a life free of hunger.
Princess Haya has been Goodwill Ambassador for the World Food Programme and is wife of the Ruler of Dubai
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I would like to know what Princess Haya and her country are doing to help global hunger...The United States is there in every crisis that comes along...I believe it's time that the rest of the world helps...We can't do it alone...
Kathy Dini, Winchester, United States
Unlike socialistic Europe, the U.S. gives away billions through private charities. This wasn't mentioned. Does the queen think that worldwide hunger can be solved by U.N. or U.S. handouts? What are the Arabs doing with all of our oil money?
Mike D., Sioux City, IA , USA
Eat less & produce less children!
Ian cheese, London, UK
Reducing our reliance on the meat industry, especially for the U.S., would certainly help in the long run, provided we switch our resources to producing foods which are more ecologically and nutritionally efficient, like grains and vegetables.
Interesting article. Tuesday is soylent green day.
Neal, Seattle, WA, USA
How can you say the US doesn't give, andrew?? We give more than anyone. You only look at what the gov. gives in dollars and cents, but you forget that the people also give, usually more than the gov.. Then we have our businesses who also make huge donations in both cash and supplies.
tom Kiel, mesa, usa
I find it surprising people blaming arabs, opec, organisations, etc.
You all fail to grasp the basic points here, oil and commodities are being pushed up by speculaters pouring cash into commodities, as other asset classes are plummeting!!
Zak, London, UK
The maths is simple. It is the politics that is the problem. I f the world population continues to rise as it has been doing, relatively highest in the less developed areas, the food supply will eventually be insufficient. As PH Salus says Malthus is right in principle. Since there is no move to formally curtail population, except in China, one is left to draw fairly simple conclusions as to what is likely to be the outcome; something which Kissinger must have been able to see easily enough even 30 years ago.
Henry Percy, London, UK
To Andrew from Cape Town, the US gives more and has done so consistently for decades, in foreign aid to help the poor but no more. The Arab world does nothing. Remember Kofi Anan his son was ripping off the oil for food program, what has the father done to make up for his son stealing from the poor?
Jenny, Grand Rapids, MI, US
I simply could not believe that in Princess Haya's article there was no mention of the frightening growth in world population. Is the World Food Programme not aware of that?
Elizabeth Woodhouse, Reigate, UK
Andrew from CapeTown, perhaps you can cite some actual numbers to back up your statement.
Todd, silver spring,
Perhaps farmers in 3rd World Countries have a chance now to escape from poverty instead of being undercut by subsidised 1st World produce given as aid or dump at give away prices.
M. Sheridan, Oldham,
Tom Welsh,
I agree with you: but it's not merely fertilizers and genetic varieties, but mechanisation that have bumped Malthus'
math about. The machine plow and harrow to the present
seeders, reapers, etc., are a major factor. But, this is a finite planet. Population growth lies at the base.
P.H. Salus, Toronto, Canada
Maybe Dubai could do something to help...they have enough money after all. Princess Haya speaks of a situation she likes to pretend she knows much about but she remains ignorant as she sits in one of her many palaces. Again, this will fall to the West to help.
Claire , London, UK
Increase the suply of oil and use corn for food.
I Anderson, Knutsford, UK
Jenny from Grand Rapids, you are misinformed since when does the US "pony up" for the poor? Your country gives more money in subsidies to US farmers than you "give" to the developing world.
andrew , cape town,
How much do the fabulously wealthy oil sheiks contribute to alleviating poverty around the world?
Bill, Vancouver, Canada
OPEC's criminal price fixing is a major factor in food prices.
If drug companies colluded like, there would be screams of outrage at the UN
Oil costs very little to pump - the Arab profits are OBSCENE!!!
The UN must force a realistic oil price now!!!
Dennis, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Population growth will outstrip any "development" solution eventually.
We should connect population control and aid or reinforce the upwards pressures on limited resurces. Someone tell the Pope that condoms will save the planet and we are off to the races.
Dave St Peters, London,
The article just reflects what the world papers are saying this moment that food crisis is amongst us and it is staying put here. We in India are also worried that food prices are the new headlines daily. I think in rural India, the tendency to stock pile your yearly quota of grains is worth gold.
Pritam Sinha, New Delhi, India
A good article, that lists signs that our leaders and media have ignored.
However, the picture has too small a frame. No mention of overpopulation (feed one mouth and soon there will be two) or biofuels (the new Western fetish).
Trouble is, the longer we delay, the more will starve in the end.
Ian Tinn, Slough, England
Once again the Yanks are to blame. I'm sure if the bloody moon dropped on the Earth they would get the blame. Isn't it about time problems in the world were laid at a correct door for a change?
Kenneth Wheatley, St Pée sur Nivelle, France
P H Salus, I don't think Malthus was wrong in any way. Technical advances such as fertilisers and GE crops can increase the maximum carrying level of the environment, but it still has a limit. Population growth however is exponential.
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
Many countries are declining. Countries with rising populations should be punished. They create misery for themselves, and export that misery.
ged, manchester,
A bad article, stating a US promise made in a world crisis, then saying 30yrs later it's not fixed?! It wasn't a 30yr fix!!
She then neglects to mention inherent corruption, mismanagement & unsustainable overpopulation of most countries, then presumes it's always US's 'job' to bail out the world!!
PF, UK,
"Inflation is always produced by Central Bankers ". So there is no food shortage - there is monetary production in excess. Simple.
Dan Berlinski, Geneva, Switzerland
Our "goverments" responce is to make its first priority to build three MILLION houses, two MILLION of which are for its immigration "policys" when it is known this country can only self sustain 30 million people.
robert, ashford, U.K
This will problem will continue whilst the number of humans continues to rise. The aid agencies are partly to blame, they should be providing contraception not just feeding people who go on to produce 10+ children with no of hope of feeding themselves or their offspring.
H Horse, jersey,
Excellent article - accurate analysis
The difficulty is that there are now no personal left to help. ODA (DFID) scrapped it's relevant resources-based division 10 years ago and closed it's world-famous research agency. It's current staff are not qualified to deal with this.
Chevalier, Church Stretton,
A French world food supply expert says that there is NO FOOD SHORTAGE. He claims that the Hedge Funds, getting out of real estate at high speed, purchased commodity futures instead and cornered the market on food, and are raising the price to the sky.
They are mass murderers.
victor compton, Cherbourg, France
No mention of population growth in the entire article!
We have 6.5 billion to feed now, growing to up to 9 billion in a couple of decades (unless nature culls us first). It doesn't help that several major religions fight tooth and nail against contraception and attempts to control family sizes.
paul newbold, sheffield, UK
Part of the food crisis is generated by our inability to turn raw materials into food, the great reliance on processed commodities. But the main problem for Europe is the suppression of farming initiatives allied to the monopolisation of food outlets. Alternative supply routes are being lost.
Malcolm Turner, Alsager, England
"The world's poorest live in farming areas: new seeds, small-scale irrigation and educational services will help them to turn their lives around." - Princess, why don't the Arabs use part of their oil revenues to help the poor, instead of building islands(!) for villas in the Persian Gulf?
Peter, Brussels, Europe
"The poor are always with you." In any society, a small increase in nutrition probably results in an increase in fertility up to the point where child mortality returns to its previous, accepted, norm.
It's been said that the only way out of the cycle is universal literacy, a much bigger problem.
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
Perhaps it is for the best in the long run that the Malthusian limits to growth manifest themselves now. Ther are simply too many people relative to a faltering "green" revolution.
Arnold Ward, Weybridge, Surrey, UK
Governments everywhere seem to have become so far removed from the basic cycles of farming and agriculture that they sleep walk into these situations. Miss a planting, whatever your crop, and you lose a year. In the poorest countries that is hard to recover and sometimes it never does.
Fiona Bonney, Oxford, Unitd Kingdom
Is there a deliberate policy to starve the poor so their land can be turned over to bio-fuels? Is this final and undeniable proof of the power that a handful of extremely rich and extremely influential people possess in todays world?
kevin, Lincoln, UK
Globalization has failed. The impovrishment it created in the form of skyrocketing food and fuel coss could ignite cataclymic global political unrest which could destroy democracy, protection of human rights, and what little remains of stable family life.
MARK KLEIN, M.D., Oakland, California, USA
Princess Haya might consider the fact that her family's vast, obscene wealth has come at the expense of the poorest, and she should feel obliged to pay to solve such problems.
The US can no longer afford to pony up to pay for the poor in the third world we need to take care of our own people.
Jenny, Grand Rapids, MI, US
The situation with rising food prices could ameliorate as suppliers react to firm and growing demand. North American agricultural productive capacity is severely repressed in reaction to the previous lack of markets. As eager suppliers get into the market, quantities should rise and prices fall.
Linda Dial, Calgary, Canada
The fundamental problem the world faces is the continual population growth in many developing countries. Investing more in agriculture now and producing more food just postpones the day of reckoning. Good news yesterday. India will have bumper harvest in rice and wheat this year.
B S Goh, Sydney, Australia
Other countries supplying food is no solution, though in the short term that may be necessary. In the long term, an improving economy, healthcare, and education (particularly of girls) are needed, to increase people's ability to feed themselves, and more importantly to reduce population growth rates
Mike, Sydney, Australia
It is 210 years since Malthus published his "Essay." He may have been wrong in his predictions, but I would claim that it was only the slope of the curve that was wrong. Perhaps we should think of this as "Malthus' Revenge."
P.H. Salus, Toronto, Canada
The developing world will just have to go on a liquid diet. Ethanol
Bruce Northwood, Washington, D.C., USA