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From The Times

May 1, 2008

Brown has morphed into John Major

Loyalty to the Prime Minister is unravelling. Will the men in grey suits come knocking?

Mary Ann Sieghart

During the worst days of the Major Government, I had lunch with a Cabinet minister who was in despair at the lack of direction from the top. “It's like sailing a boat in really choppy waters,” he moaned. “If you've got the wind in your sails, you can make headway through the waves. If you haven't, you just get buffeted all over the place and the water starts coming in.”

Talking to Labour MPs and ministers this week, I recognised the same sense of drift and desperation. Many are close to panic that they will lose their seats. If the party does badly in today's elections - and particularly if Ken Livingstone loses in London - fury against the Prime Minister will erupt. London is the key, with seats in the assembly as important as mayoralty, since many of Labour's marginals are in the capital. Local elections in the regions will tell us less, as Labour did so poorly there when the seats were last contested in 2004.

Brownites are whispering that their old enemies will unveil a conspiracy over the weekend, but there is not, as yet, any plot to unseat him. “It's not in our make-up,” explains a senior Blairite, who would love the Labour leader to step down voluntarily. “The trouble is, the Brownites think everyone is like them.”

Another former Cabinet minister agrees: “The obvious thing would be to organise and sort it out. But that's not what we do in the Labour Party. We tolerate incompetence and failure. We elected Michael Foot, after all.”

The difference now is that Labour is in government, not opposition, with a decent majority. At the next election, things can only get worse. There are well over 100 Labour MPs who would be destined for the jobseeker's allowance if the Tories were to win power. And most of them blame Mr Brown for their predicament.

They may not always have liked what Tony Blair did, but at least they knew why he was doing it. Nobody ever complained of his weak leadership. With Mr Brown, they don't understand why he does what he does - why abolish the 10p tax band if it was intended to help the poor? - and he is notably bad at either listening to their concerns or using charm and persuasiveness to win them and the voters over. Instead, he barks at his critics, denies the facts and even makes up some of his own. Yesterday, on the Today programme, he claimed to have taken a million children out of poverty, when the actual figure is 600,000. Inflation is hitting not only food and oil these days.

MPs and ministers desperately want Mr Brown to change, but they are not hopeful. Where are the big ideas? Where is the sense of direction? Whatever happened to the collegial approach he promised?

Loyalty to the leader is unravelling, and if today's results are bad and the Crewe and Nantwich by-election at the end of the month is lost, the speed will accelerate. Backbench MPs will decide that their best hope of keeping their seats is to dissociate themselves from Mr Brown and his policies. That spells disaster for the 42-day detention vote and probably more trouble on the 10p tax rate. Already Frank Field plans to put down an early day motion on Tuesday, spelling out the changes the Treasury has to make to avoid defeat at the report stage of the Finance Bill. If Mr Brown can't even get his key legislation through, what authority does he have left?

The Whips' Office is in turmoil, as evidenced by two recent leaks of memos from what should be the most secure wing of government. Geoff Hoon, the Chief Whip, reportedly feels undermined by Nick Brown, his deputy, who is one of the Prime Minister's closest allies. Meanwhile, several MPs who signed that letter to Mr Blair calling on him to resign in September 2006 were rewarded with Whips' jobs. Other MPs are reluctant to take lessons in loyalty from them. They ask, sardonically: “If I rebel, will I get to be a Whip?”

Farther up the food chain, there are remarkably few senior ministers prepared to go round the broadcasting studios defending their leader. The only volunteers - Jack Straw, David Miliband, John Hutton, Hazel Blears - are former Blairites. Where are Mr Brown's old friends when he needs them? Ed Balls, Douglas Alexander and Ed Miliband seem to have learnt their boss's dark art of disappearing when things look bad.

So what are the prospects of Mr Brown either bolstering his leadership or giving way to someone else? Stumbling along as before, and hoping something will turn up is not a credible option. Many MPs hope that he will become miraculously more competent, more strategic, more human, more open. But men of his age don't transform themselves overnight, and his is a particularly rigid personality. If he pretends to change, as he did last summer, he won't keep up the facade for long.

A few MPs are suggesting that he should follow Mr Major - who else? - in calling a “put up or shut up” leadership election. This is pretty implausible, not least because he would not take the risk.

So the only hope for those who are convinced that Mr Brown is leading Labour to defeat is that he can be persuaded, at some point in the coming year, to stand down in the interests of the party. That might require a delegation of senior ministers and friends, but he would present it as his own choice.

Would he even consider it? Maybe not. But it is clear that Mr Brown is not remotely enjoying the job he spent the whole of his life trying to win. I bumped into him last week, and his face was grey, cast in a rictus of tension. Rather like John Major circa 1995, in fact.

sieghart@journalist.com

John Major, unlike Brown, was not a disaster in terms of policy

He restored the nations's finances and set Britain up for the next 15 years of prosperity. So-called black wednesday was a welcome repatriation of monetary policy after Lawson's disastrous attempt to turn GBP into a deutchmark proxy

SD, London,

Blair could extracate himself from any policy failure by the operation of a toothy grin & shrug of the shoulders. Trance-like we would forgive & forget. Brown's nothing like as incompetent yet damned for the smallest infraction. The Tory problem is that any modest success will be seen as a recovery

paul reed, Cincinnati, Ohio

Tax and spend, just like old Labour. New Labour's run out of spin and the truth is unravelling.

Nick, London,

Good point about Balls going into hiding, but possibly for the best. He may be able to turn it on for the press at their luncheon, but he comes across as a stuttering psychopath in the Chamber and on the telly. How long before he starts briefing against his "friend" and mentor?

Philip Penworthy, London, UK

Maybe if those MP's worried about losing their seats concentrated more on their constituents to rather than their Party they might not have had anything to worry about.

A Williams, Stockton-on_Tees,

I would have thought the closest comparison right now is not Major but Callaghan. Admittedly, the dead aren't being left out, and the rubbish is being collected, but, as it stands, it's difficult to see Brown winning any mandate of his own. Of course, Major was also a nice bloke ...

James, London, UK

I don't believe that John Major and GB are at all similar.
JM got mission impossible when he took control of the imploding Tory party. He was a decent man in charge of a basket case. GB is the author of his own downfall, mistakes, he would say "mistakes, what mistakes?" arrogance, get rid of him.

Graham, St. Albans, uk

Gordon Brown is a disaster, and an emergency election should be called now. Mr Brown has fined people in The UK for being alive to collect money and forgot the poor who elected them. Rd users, Council tax that no poor can afford. The country is a mess. New laws passed every day & nothing gets done.

Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK

Congrats on great insight! Only 5 months since Vince Cable made essentially the same point. (Mr Bean and J Major being largely interchangeable).

Martin Pierce, London, UK

I disagree that John Major was a disaster. He was the one that brought peace to N Ireland. He was the chancellor who reduced the Government deficit at the time. Margaret Thatcher was right to appoint him. He was the only one not driven by ego. This is where Brown is going wrong.

mike lincoln, wakefield,

With respect to your more connected position, I don t see any serious internal moves against Gordon Brown. I think MPs can appreciate that the likelihood of any replacement for Gordon Brown proving to be a better electoral prospect is intuitively remote and doesn t stand up on the logic. Furthermore, the complications expressed in Brown s remaining attachment to his previous job makes a replacement even more improbable. I don t know how the election across the water may affect this position but presumably that is another factor complicating any changeover.
I think Gordon Brown may be in a difficult position, but I am sure that his best prospect is to be pragmatic and ride the wave, ignoring the Press, of course.

Henry Percy, London, UK

There is no comparison yet between John Major and Gordon Brown. The Conservative party was in anguish over Britain's entry into EU domination of Britain and certain members were uncontrollable. I remember when most of the Labour party was against close ties with the Common Market. People forget.

phil de buquet, newport,

Quote: "There are well over 100 Labour MPs who would be destined for the jobseeker's allowance if the Tories were to win power". They would not qualify for the allowance, especially as they are self-employed. In fact, there are so many conditions, it's a wonder that anyone at all can qualify.

Dwight Vandryver, Scholar Green, Cheshire, UK

yet more proof that is isn't just cream that rises to the top...

like fish and guests, this government has started to smell. time for a change, methinks.

Helen, Newbury,

If Brown goes, will the British people get another P.M. that we didn't elect?

Brown's bad but the system's worse!

I suggest a new party for G.B.:

the Movement for Democratic Change.

Nathan, Inverness, UK

Steve, Cardiff

Some people seemed to think Brown was the cure for the dive in popularity after three terms of Blair. Brown's made it a soap opera by being so melodramitacally woeful.

You ask for honesty but seem to absolve Brown of responsibility for his predicament.

Neil McF, Southampton, England

There is no comparison with John Major. Major was the Inspector Clouseau of British politics; despite being completely incompetent, and creating disaster and mayhem all round him, he even won a general election by accident and bungled on for nearly 7 years. Brown will be out of office in 2 years

Richard, Bexhill, UK

That is just about the only thing I envy a "Minister".
Lunch with you.
It was Europe that destroyed John Major.
What will it be with GB ?

Peter Bolt, Redditch, UK

`Grey` Gordon. Couldn`t agree more. I doubt whether `Spitting Images` would ever grant him the luxury of green peas, he`s that dour! `Grey Gordon`- seem to have heard this before.Is it a dance?

Ozzy Kovacevic, Oldham, UK

Brown and Major - there is indeed a lot of resemblance between the two. Both were successors to PMs strongly committed to: 'change', but could not continue the initial success of their predecessors, who were already loosing ground before resigning. Just like Major Brown will loose next elections.

Hein Maassen, Leidschendam, The Netherlands

Brown didn't claim to have taken a million children out of poverty, he said that they were on their way to doing so. I wish the media could at least be accurate with facts and words before they launch into psycho-babble attacks on Brown.

Bob, London,

How reassuring to have Hazel Blears, Jack Straw and David Miliband supporting you. Brown must sleep easy in his bed!

Neil McMillan, Glos,

As several correspondents have commented, Brown is unlikely to go voluntarily and with good grace. In two years time, as he clings precariously to office with bitten fingernails, it will be for the electorate to remove him, and consign him to the dustbin of political oblivion

Neil, Gloucestershire, England

The title, I think, is unfair on John Major.

Don Basilio, Cambridge, UK

Brown won't go voluntarily and Labour aren't brave enough to force him out. The next election will come when the UK is suffering the full brunt of the credit crunch and Gordon's stealth taxes. Tax on spending hits the poor hardest - fuel increases, car and council tax rises will finish him off.

Donna Walker, Effingham, Surrey

John Major the Highest paid ex-prime minister in British History (at least until Tony Blair gets going)? Brown isn't fit to boil his peas.

Tom, London,

Three huge differences with Major,
1) JM did away with the poll tax, fought his election and won it
2) In Douglas Hurd, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Major had capable men who he respected around him to occupy the great offices of state.
3) JM didn't kill his caeser, Brown did.

Edward Andrew Green, Upminster, England

At least John Major got some fun out of it even if it was with Edwina!! Brown just makes me feel miserable.

A.Williams, Cradley Heath,

If Brown is morphing into Major lets pray that Cameron dosent morph into Blair or the UK really is stuffed!

Martin, Spain,

Gordon has problems, but let's have some honesty here.

Three terms of government, and yet people talk about this dive in popularity like it's unexpected.

It is entirely expected.

This is what happens to governments.

I guess pointing this out rather ruins the soap opera though...

Steve, Cardiff, UK

Not men in grey suits but men in white coats, this government is certifiable!

Alan, Luton,

The Labour party is programmed to destroy the economy and this Labour government is no different from all the others. It has been lucky in lasting longer than previous ones simply because of the extremely favourable world economic conditions it has faced in the last 11 years.

John, LONDON, ENGLAND

You are probably right MA about all of this, but I wld like to hear about who cld replace him?
The crowd around him seem particularly savage & awful and I see a leadership contest as a gruesome bloodbath that wld sicken even the most ardent Labour luvvies. Thus I think Labour and PM are stuffed.

Tim, Oakham,

John Major won a general election (largely on his own). I doubt that GB could.

Frank Upton, Solihull,

much as i hate it i intend today to vote against Livingstone and Labour to accelerate the demise of Brown - a case of one promotion too far if ever there was one.

ibrahim, London,

In the interest of Britain, Gordon needs to take a very long Manopause. Give him a knighthood or something - anything!...and make him go away!

Garth Strong, San Francisco, USA

"... dangerously close to the bust he said he'd abolished." Paul, we've already had it.

John Lee, Ellesmere Port SSR, UK

Prime Minister Brown was not elected by the people as their prime minister . He was handed the job by Tony Blair and his cabinet. Once again the people of the nation were excluded from the selection process. When will Britain become a democracy? .

Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia

Brown will cling limpet like to his job until the bitter end when he is constitutionally compelled to call an election. Over that time, as The Times reports, public borrowing will balloon out of control as it was always bound to do and we'll be dangerously close to the bust he said he'd abolished.

Paul Owen, Birmingham, UK

The only MP that can save Labour is Alan Milburn. He is the only one who has the all round skills to pull the party together.

mike lincoln, wakefield,

Labour has nothing positive to offer those people who work for a living. I am sick and tired of having year on year above inflation tax increases so my hard earned money can be wasted by this party.

steve tea, manchester, cheshire