Tony Blair
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The problem of climate change is almost universally understood and acknowledged. This is in itself an achievement. Now is the moment to get serious about the solution.
Such a solution has to be global. It must include America and China. It has to be radical. It must put the world on a path away from carbon dependence to a new, green economy.
The report I published last week is based on the work of experts from around the world. It warns of the danger of a chasm between the calls for radical action from scientists, environmental groups and people rightly alarmed at the effect of greenhouse gas emissions on the planet, and the anxiety of decision makers in politics and business, who share the aims of radical action but worry whether it is realistic.
In the long term everyone accepts that the needs of the economy and the environment are in partnership. In the short term there is tension. And we live in the short term. The report tries to bridge this chasm.
There is a blunt reality that we need to acknowledge amid all the talk of targets, goals and obligations: the climate demands a radical change in the nature of the world economy, moving from growth built on carbon dependence to environmentally sustainable development.
We need to be clear about the size of the task. America’s emissions are still growing. So are those in Japan. In Europe they are static.
China and India are, rightly, industrialising and moving hundreds of millions of poor people from subsistence agriculture to the modern economy.
We are talking of a global 2050 target of at least a 50% cut in emissions. This is decades away and decades beyond the political life of any government. The key challenge is to describe a realistic path to it. That implies shorter-term goals, but these are immensely demanding, asking developed economies to move from growth in emissions to significant cuts within 10-15 years.
Europe has bold 2020 targets and it will take bold action to achieve them. The recent Warner-Lieberman bill before the US Senate implied 5% cuts in emissions by 2020. That would be a big step but it falls short of the cuts necessary for world emissions to peak in 2020.
China has set a target of a 20% cut in energy intensity by 2010, a huge step forward. This is again immensely demanding but, even if met, will not cut overall emissions, given China’s need for growth. India also wants to grow.
The challenge is truly profound. It is as technically and scientifically complex, as politically sensitive and as institutionally fraught as any the international community has had to deal with since the postwar Bretton Woods economic settlement.
And, above all, our knowledge is constantly evolving. Though we talk as if the science were certain, the precise details are often open to debate.
Therefore this report proposes an approach to the United Nations negotiation in Copenhagen at the end of next year that does not attempt to resolve all issues up to 2050 or even 2030 or 2020. Instead it should begin a process that will then undergo revision as our knowledge improves and the facts become clearer.
What we need are practical, realistic steps to set the world economy on a new path.
What might the framework look like and what leadership do we need from the Hokkaido summit next month? First we must set a clear direction in Copenhagen through a realistic target for emissions cuts and get the action under way. And Copenhagen is the beginning, not the end of a process.
The G8 and the Major Economies Meeting must give a lead by agreeing this target.
The countries attending these two summits represent three-quarters of the global emissions. A steer from them is an essential precondition to a deal. It doesn’t supplant the UN process at Copenhagen but supports it.
They can also help find the answers to questions that will be stumbling blocks to serious negotiation. The G8 should agree a plan through to next year to get this work done. Then the Copenhagen negotiation has a chance of success.
There are also facts whose significance gets lost. For example, energy efficiency would provide about one-quarter of the gains necessary.
The vast majority of new power stations in China and India will be coal-fired. So developing carbon capture and storage technology is not optional; it is of the essence.
Without at least some countries engaging in a substantial renaissance of nuclear power, it is hard to see how any global deal could work.
For developing countries to grow, they will need funds and technology; otherwise they will not be able to reduce emissions within the necessary time.
Deforestation amounts to about 15-20% of the emissions problem.
Certain key sectors such as cement, steel and, of course, power account for a huge percentage – almost half of all emissions.
Airline and shipping emissions, though only 5% today, are a fast-growing part of the problem.
Finally, some good news. It is clear the deal can be done. Indeed, long term, there will be benefits not just to the environment but to the economy. In the short term, we need to get it right.
It is time to take this issue from a campaign to a practical plan of action. And the time to do it is now.
Tony Blair is leading the Breaking the Climate Deadlock initiative to promote a new global deal on climate change. The full report is available at www.tonyblairoffice.org
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This is EXACTLY we call 'schoolboy stuff'. Good to see Tone is going back to skool. Edukashun, education, edikachion. Go boy go....
Scot Richards, Brisbane, Australia
I dont read ANYTHING written the person who took us to War.
All those decent people that have died, for one mans vainglory.
ronnie, Bucks, UK
After reading the first sentence I stopped reading.
Alan Heaton, Frankfurt, Germany
I wonder if Saddam's weapons of mass destructions had any thing to do with the Planets warming? All his nuclear reactors working away 24/7 for the last 20 years ...?
stanzler, ny, usa
I supported his ideas and new proposals as a fresh approach to the world.
Problem is that, in the last 6-7 years, whatever he says I do not believe him.
If TB is promoting something I always step back, like 'if he is for it I do not like to support it'.
savo, london, uk
I was reading this article thinking who's writing this warm fuzzy of eco-babble? I should have known ..... a politician !!
Jim Talbot, Auckland, New Zealand
Hey, Tony, I notice that the private equity firm of Doughty Hanson is going to make a lot of money from their holdings in wind turbine makers. Do I recall correctly that they made big political contributions to you ? How much was it ? Any strings attached ?
Freddy, London,
In the reading of this article I am reminded why I disliked Blair - the hollow slogans, arrogance, searching for the next high profile initiative while caring nothing for intellectual substance. You got what you wanted from politics, money. But like an attention seeking child you will not go away.
James, Newcastle, UK
The science supporting man-made global warming is dodgy to say the least. Climate has always changed and always will. Earth works on a geological time-scale not a human one. We should concentrate on the things we can do such as reducing pollution and husbanding finite resources, not futile posturing
John, Gaborone, Botswana
Global Warming is a money spinner. Carbon Trading, ludicrous 'Eco Towns', taxes on older vehicles. All a huge con for the unscrupulous political and business entities who see the World and it's populations as cash cows. Read the Politically Incorrect Guide to Glbal Warming for a bit of honesty.
logdon, stockport,
Any lingering doubts that I may have had that man made global warming is just a con have just been swept away now that the arch trickster is giving it his all.
david webb, bournemouth, uk
"Americas emissions are still growing. So are those in Japan. In Europe they are static."
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The EU emissions are static? Well, for a given day, but annually? Then how is it that Kyoto accomplices (Er, signatories, sorry) have increased emissions over 20% while US is about 7%?
teqjack, Pawtucket, USA
Climate change - the biggest govt cash cow since WW2. The taxpayers who are being milked in increasing quantities in its name are expected to feel good about it. And exactly what percentage of all these 'environmental taxes' actually goes on solutions? Very little I expect.
Dirk Bruere, Bedford, England
The only evidence for AGW is computer models. Every time they predict the temperature is going to be warmer than it ends up being. Their 4Billion dollar a year budget should pay for answering the sceptics with science. Dont waste my taxes on this or searching for the tooth fairy.
larry, manchester,
Why is this self-promoting slime-ball heading up this issue. Blair has only one agenda.
David, Bromley,
It's nice to see Teflon Tony having another go at being someone. Why does he not shut up and go away. Surely by now he must realise that he is the most despise person in the UK and indeed most of the world. He is a self-seeking lying pansy with the guts and morals of a hyena. Get lost Teflon!
Sir Ian Barton-Goldstein, London,
I believe one of the most fundamental invasions of our liberty occurs when government dictates what science tells us. I wonder how Mr Blair would have dealt with Galileo: 42-days recurring detention?
fmb, London, U.K.
Yes- climate change is a critical problem, but no- we dont need Blair as the messenger. It significantly devalues the message. Remember Iraq and 45 minutes. This is a piece of political grandstanding by Blair to remain on the world stage - to support his bid to become 'European president' .
Tim Black, Southampton, U.K.
Can I ask Mr Blair to go sell concerned somewhere else.There are many with same message as he who are not proven liars nor looking to save the world in their spare time.
Any message he has on climate,war, blood or God is corrupted by his previous body of work.
robert everitt, wolverhampton,
That's rich from a man with how many houses? How many planes has he sat on in the past year? The amount of fuel and services you are using Mr Blair, outstrips the ordinary people of Britain by the bucket load! So what qualifies you to preach? What a hypocrite.
judy, Liverpool, England
Congratulations Tony, it's good to see that your penchant for infantile sound bites remains undiminished since leaving office. The notion that the cumulative effect of greenhouse gases on the climate is well understood is entirely bogus. Still let's not truth get in the way of your lust for power.
Adam Skirving, Edinburgh,
There will be a large number of people who will not regard you as being qualified to either advise or persuade us on any subject whatever, Mr. Blair. You and Mr. Brown were in charge of this country for 10 years and one bitten twice shy.
brian kelly, reading, berkshire
I look forward to seeing the hard evidence of CO2 causing global warming. The model was recently shown to have missed out a factor by IPCC research workers. Question what other factors have they missed? And it is ONLY A MODEL - not Gospel. Earth has been getting hot then cold for millions of year
M. Cawdery, craigavon, Co. UK, EU (now)
Good article, the time for action is indeed now.
However it should be added that under Blair, Britain's carbon emissions went up, despite signing up to Kyoto.
Owen, London, UK
Despite conflicting evidence regards global warming, I prefer to err on the side of caution for the planet's sake.
The problem is that Britain seems to be making the lion's share of sacrifices throuh green taxes. If we can't get the major polluters on side, Mr Blair, our sacrifices are pointless.
Dilip Dhokia, Bradford, UK
odels assume growth is good.
population control small footprint sustainable lifestyles can be market driven.Ban MPs from car and planes.
When the real cost to a sole driver of is a days hard labor tree planting while walking cycling and public transport is encouraged as Singapore Curitiba
j ronan, curitiba, brasil
I wonder I am alone in thinking that Mr Blair is the epitome of a western political elite whose broadcast motives for impeding the economic growth of the poorer countries of the world are more derived from Machiavellian cunning than from enlightened self-interest.
Simon Stephenson, Windermere, UK
Deforestation, steel, shipping, cement, Chinese. So why did you spend 10 years over-taxing Britain over our negligible CO2 emissions? Nobody believes your mendacious propoganda, paid for by JP Morgan, the Holy See and your New World Order chums.
John Smith, Manchester, UK
His first sentence is incomplete. It omitted, after 'acknowledged', "to be the greatest mass confidence trick in the history of mankind, which hands self-serving politicians such as myself a blank tax-raising cheque and sets up aviation nicely as the new foxhunting". Stick to illegal wars Bliar.
Andrew, Peterborough,
(Mike Wilkes) 78,000m3 equals a cube only 43m on a side. Storage space shouldn't be a problem.
Graham Rounce, London, UK
Mr Blair can solve the problem of Climate change in "45 minutes" if elected as Prime Minister again.
jayil, london, uk
At the time, Blair did not recognise his duty to the world or the environment because it conflicted with his personal and political ends and the aims of those who made political contributions to his Party.
Mr Blair did little for the environment because the environment gives no contributions.
F. Cockburn, London, UK
Logically we must eventually move from growth to sustainable development. Human beings have been too successful at breeding. If we don't control our fertility ourselves then Gaia will do it for us. Global warming is just part of reestablishing a balance.
Richard, Upper Hutt, New Zealand
A very interesting article !
We (the citizens) are as responsibles as the companies, that's why we have to change our habits of (over)consumption. Production is trained by consumption and vice versa, don't forget !
May be a movment like the voluntary simplicity will help?
Mrttlemonde, Brussels, Belgium
The problem with climate change - and I think TB means global warming - is that the supposed evidence is rapidly melting away.
Try reading some serious critiques by heavyweights such as Steve McIntyre of www.climateaudit.org or Lobos Motl of www.motls.blogspot.com .
Let this madness stop.
Tim Skinner, Newbury, UK
Vociferous lobbyists backed by some scientists aknowledge climate change, global warming, 'the greenhouse effect' or whatever is the current catchphrase today, those who try to oppose these views or introduce contradictory scientific evidence are ignored, what is the real international agenda?
Les, Southport, England
There is one more problem - CC&S is impractical.
An existing 1400 MW station emits 10 million t. of CO2 p. a. requiring 78,000 m3 for storage & the station output would fall by 11%.
This won't happen! We must concede that Nuclear is an essential replacement for coal almost everywhere.
Mike Wilkes, Brisbane, Australia
"The problem of climate change is almost universally understood and acknowledged." Your first sentence is as factually wrong as it is intellectually facile, Mr Blair.
There are many sane people left in the world who are not hoodwinked by pseudo-scientific research reporting this link.
Edwin, Bucharest,
It is good to see that there is a positive attitude towards nuclear power.
It remains to be seen if carbon capture and storage are feasible, it is clear that wind, solar, and tidal power, will only ever be part of the solution - they will not solve the entire problem.
Thomas James, STRATFORD-UPON-AVON, United Kingdom
Tony Blair had the position power to take the necessary steps when he was prime minister of Britain. The scientists have been advising governments on the crisis that the planet earth and all species face inorder to achieve changes. Tony Blair's record on the environment will destroy his efforts.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
Climate change is not well understood, and proposals by any government to radically restructure the economy as a response should be strongly resisted. Advances in wealth and well-being tend to be made in spite of governments the more they intervene, the worse the outcomes.
Faustino, Brisbane, Australia
The greatest irony is that although the environment is threatened by humans, particularly the built industrial and residential environment (urban sprawl) and its consequent pollution, the hypothesis of dangerous climate change due to CO2 fails honest scientific scrutiny. Climate changes naturally.
Richard, Rye, UK