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From The Sunday Times

June 29, 2008

Yes, it’s messy, but toppling Mugabe may be the only option

Martin Ivens

How Bill Clinton brightens a room. Last week he dropped into town to celebrate Nelson Mandela’s 90th birthday. One minute he was hobnobbing with Elton John and Robert De Niro at a charity dinner – corporate tables a snip at £100,000 – the next he was seen leaving No 10 in what the fashion writer of The Times gushingly described as “a dazzling pistachio shirt, an eye-popping striped tie and a raffish summer jacket in dove grey, the season’s most fashionable shade”.

The only raincloud on our man of mode’s sunny horizon was Mandela’s pronouncement that Zimbabwe was suffering because of “a tragic failure of leadership”. I hope such talk didn’t bring back unhappy memories, as Clinton is quite the expert on African genocide and failures of leadership.

Back in 1994, when he was president, the Hutu government of Rwanda murdered 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutu within the space of 100 days. The weapons were primitive – machetes, spades and garden tools – but the results were highly efficient, the fastest killing spree in history. Clinton later apologised for failing to “appreciate the gravity” of the situation.

Actually Bill’s administration did appreciate it. Washington had helped remove UN peacekeepers from Rwanda, blocked the sending of UN reinforcements when 8,000 a day were being murdered, and refused even to jam radio broadcasts used by the government to coordinate the killings.

A year later Clinton was at it again, or rather not at it again, during the mass murder of thousands of Bosnian Muslims in Srebrenica in 1995. This time he refused even to change the flight path of an American spy satellite to find out what was going on: it would have been too embarrassing.

Clinton is, of course, loved by good liberals everywhere, while his successor George Bush and Tony Blair are reviled for the invasion of Iraq; they were or are deluded pawns of sinister neoconservatives and starry-eyed neo-liberals who want to prop up democracies on the back of western bayonets.

Now I don’t want to be too hard on dear Bill. He eventually came round to tipping the balance against evil in Bos-nia. And when the Serbian leader Slo-bodan Milosevic threatened the ethnic cleansing of the Albanian population of Kosovo his friend Tony Blair persuaded him, after a series of screaming matches on the phone, to commit American ground troops.

Today humanitarian intervention has, in any case, been widely discredited after the disaster that followed the toppling of the genocidal dictator Saddam Hussein, hasn’t it? The antiAmerican left and the little England right unite in scorn for the Texan cowboy and his British poodle.

But what’s that I hear? Massacres of Muslims by Muslims have approached genocidal proportions in Darfur, Sudan. “Something must be done,” cry the do-gooders of the left. In Burma, the generals let their people die in the wake of devastating floods rather than accept contaminating western aid. “Send in the US air force,” bellow the critics of American bombers.

The little Englanders have changed their tune, too. Fire-eaters are now calling for Britain and America to oust Mugabe, even though they have condemned all other allied interventions.

There is only one thing worse than humanitarian intervention by the West, it seems, and that’s no intervention.

The calls for action grow stronger as Zimbabwe’s pulse grows fainter. Our government has failed to persuade the South Africans to turn Mugabe out, as they can at any time, though as Peter Hain hinted in these pages last week, we haven’t tried very hard.

Forty years ago Britain didn’t act to remove the illegal white minority government of Ian Smith in Rhodesia when it was propped up by apartheid South Africa. Today Britain doesn’t want to topple Smith’s nemesis, Mugabe, against the wishes of the white regime’s enemy and successor, the ANC government of Thabo Mbeki. We gave Mugabe a knighthood after he massacred his enemies in Matabele-land. But he was “a good chap” then. Conservative and Labour policy alike on Zimbabwe has been crippled by postcolonial guilt or inverted racism.

In any case, an overstretched, second-rank power like Britain would find it difficult to force its will on a landlocked opponent without the cooperation of the neighbourhood – though Zimbabwe’s army is no obstacle.

Mugabe jeers: “How can the ball-point fight with the gun?” Alas, he is right. Perhaps the disapproval of Man-dela and, more important, that of Mugabe’s African neighbours heralds an end to his illegitimate rule. I have my doubts. For the moment we can tighten the sanctions screw. But if the horrors threaten to mount to Rwandan proportions, shouldn’t we act?

Back in 1999, at the height of the Kosovo crisis, Tony Blair gave a celebrated speech in Chicago drafted by my old war studies tutor, Professor Lawrence Freedman, setting out principles for humanitarian intervention. Somehow it evaded the Foreign Office censors. It deserves reading in full, but here are his key tests for action.

“First, are we sure of our case? War is an imperfect instrument for righting humanitarian distress; but armed force is sometimes the only means of dealing with dictators. Second, have we exhausted all diplomatic options? We should always give peace every chance. Third, on the basis of a practical assessment of the situation, are there military operations we can sensibly and prudently undertake? Fourth, are we prepared for the long term? In the past we talked too much of exit strategies. But having made a commitment, we cannot simply walk away once the fight is over; better to stay with moderate numbers of troops than return for repeat performances with large numbers. And finally, do we have national interests involved?”

The Chicago speech was not a charter for American gunslingers to go riding out in an outlaw world. Blair knew that idealism had to be tempered by realism. He understood that democracies are rightly reluctant to sacrifice the lives of their servicemen. He set limits to western ambitions: no, we are not going to get rid of dictatorships where the balance of risk is all wrong.

Blair’s critics have a point, too, that the first and second tests were not applied in Iraq, though even Saddam’s allies thought he had chemical weapons. In Afghanistan and Iraq, President Bush and his defence secretary, Don-ald Rumsfeld, failed the fourth test by pig-headedly refusing to plan for the postinvasion settlement. In our magazine today you can read how the remarkable US general David Petraeus, exponent of “the surge”, is trying to make up for that deficit in Iraq, though even he acknowledges that military victory will be insufficient without “moral legitimacy”.

Blair concluded his speech like this: “I say to you: never fall again for the doctrine of isolationism. The world cannot afford it. Stay a country outward-looking, with the vision and imagination that is in your nature. And realise that in Britain you have a friend and an ally that will stand with you, work with you, fashion with you the design of a future built on peace and prosperity for all, which is the only dream that makes humanity worth preserving.”

Windy talk of “dreams” and “humanity” usually gives me indigestion, but I believe, in essence, Blair was right. British engagement with an outward-looking America is always better than the alternative. I see no reason in theory why an Anglo-American planB could not be devised to topple Mugabe’s tinpot government if thousands more are starved and axed to death. Most of the Chicago tests are easily passed in Zimbabwe’s case. The second, that of exhausting all diplomatic means, alas, could soon be met. Only the last, that of cold national interest, is debatable – although we should be able to look our children in the eye when they ask us what we did.

When he was chancellor Gordon Brown won a reputation for his concern for debt-laden African countries. Now the prime minister and his idealistic Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, may have to face a hard choice. To watch as more die or to push for intervention. I’m sure they won’t want to go down with Bill Clinton as leaders who couldn’t “appreciate the gravity” of an African tragedy.

"Tom Welsh, its not your legs being broken, feet being chopped off, its not you being burnt or beaten".

Lloyd, I suppose you mean well. But I am more concerned about the million Iraqis who have died as a result of "my" government's well-meaning actions. Some problems have no easy answers.

Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,

Lloyd advises that we "get Mugabe and put him in chains take him to The Hague and charge him with crimes against humanity."

I've a better idea. Rather than take him to a bunch of dithering Continentals, turn him over to his own people. He'll get the justice he deserves.

Mike, Fayetteville, AR, USA

America will not intervene militarily anywhere for a generation. We have wearied of the loss of blood and money to the jeers of an ungrateful world. Any President sending troops to Zimbabwe or elsewhere would be impeached. Daddy has gone European and retired early. Zimbabwe is yours.

Tourbillon, San Diego,

The last thing we need to do is to get involved in other peoples countries'. Another war creates another mess and you get only abuse for it. Forget it. Let us fix our own problems and stop pretending we are a world power.

chris clarke, chappaqua, usa

Neither the US nor the UK have any national interest in Zimbabwe. It is a country in name only made up of tribes who mutually hate each other, like most of the other states in Africa--enen Kenya the ancestral land of our would-be president. Let them be.

Bob, Reno, USA

I see the military interventionists are out in force again. They are as wrong about intervention in Zimbabwe as they were about the invasion of Iraq. The solution to Zimbabwe lies in the hands of its people and its neighbouring African countries. Diplomacy, censure and sanctions will oust Mugabe.

Oxford Don, Oxford, UK

Whilst I despise this man and all he stands for should we not just keep our noses out and get our own house in order. We think that we are so perfect but we are far from it. Government corruption, an unelected prime minister, lies and deceit over iraq and peerages pluse bribing the saudis!

neil, almere, holland

There will always be a malaise and an apathy by the leaders who have most because Zimbabwe has nothing to give. Its natural resources are relatively worthless to a world that invades and topples a regime if it has lakes of oil. Hypocrisy at its worst and most obvious.

Nigel, Hereford,

Why must it be an Anglo American plan to topple Mugabe? What about the EU; surely they will rise to the task. Or maybe not.

John Edwards, West Chester, PA

"Zimbabwe has NO historical connections with China or Russia, thank you! Charan Muzaya

This is precisely why they should provide the troops needed to do this. The West is tainted in the eyes of Africans. It is time other powerful countries under a UN flag met some of the needs of the world.

Peter Beaumont, Yorkshire, UK

If it went well it would soon be called 'imperialism!'

fmb, London, U.K.

All you people calling for Mugabe to be forcibly removed from power must be "neocons" right? So I'm sure you all supported forcibly removing Saddam Hussein too, since he was at least 10 times worse than Mugabe, right? Hmmmmmm .... Maybe George Bush was right after all. Imagine that.

Dan, San Diego, CA, USA

UN intervention is inevitable. Western forces should be in and out of Zimbabwe if they wish to uptain their conscience of human rights. If the world doesn't intervene, then who will? We haven't exactly found life on Mars yet have we?

A.Paul, Wolverhampton, England, UK

Tom Welsh, its not your legs being broken, feet being chopped off, its not you being burnt or beaten. Its not you dying of starvation struggling to survive each day. You would rather just leave Mugabe to kill and burn people while you pretend its not happing living is leafy suburbia. SHAME on you

Lloyd, London,

Intervention might be good, but how? that must be well thought, the danger of fighting might be avoided.

giovanni, Berlin, Germany

Sir,
Why cannot sanctions be applied to South Africa, until such time as she brings about the fall of Mugabe and his Generals with transition to rule by the democratically elected MDC Government??
Isnt that what is most in the interest of both Zimbabwe and the world?

Martin , North Staffordshire, UK

The west blames African tribalism, ineptitude, and corruption--with good reason. Africa blames colonialism, racism, and the 'white man'---with good reason. Which of course solves nothing.
Facts are, Zimbabwe CANNOT sort this out themselves---unless you want to see another Rwanda/Dafur solution.

T Simoneaux, Blantyre, Malawi

True culprit and Mugabe spokesman = Tabo Mbeki
Zanu-PF's best friend = ANC
Lousy neighbor = South Africa
Willing co-conspirators = SADC
Inept, do-nothing, corrupt club of dictators = AU
Endlessly talking circle of corruption = UN

T Simoneaux, Blantyre, Malawi

Is it true that Chinese business interests are keeping Mugabe and Zanu PF murderers in place? They certainly supply all of the ammunition and weapons. Why are other governments just keeping quiet about this?? Too scared of Beijing or just too much self interest as well?

Colin, Carmarthen, United Kingdom

As a "NON -WHITE", who grew up under thre murderous Apartheid regime, I am ashamed and embarrassed that Mbeki has not been more forceful in his dealings with Mugabe. He had ample opportunity to elevate his influence and stature, yet, sadly he has failed miserably as a leader and a human being.

Varsi Padayachcee, Poolesville MD, usa

Why not intervention?
Let's start with Saudi Arabia, Syria, Kirghistan, Yemen, etc - not more democratic than Mugabe

savo, london, uk

Clinton is the perfect example for interventionism - to divert attention from Monica Lewinski case he would do anything.

savo, london, uk

What happens in Zimbabwe, or anywhere else in Africa, is nothing to do with us in Britain. NOTHING. It's their problem. Even if that were not true, there is nothing we could do that would not make matters worse for them. What we should do is mind our own business and get on with our own lives.

Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,

As a Chicagoan (US) who remembers the former PMs speech, I applaud the author in reminding his countrymen of the state of the world. There is no peace attainable with someone like Hussein or Mr. Mugabe. Zimbabweans should rise up. The US and UK can't police the world. There is no national interest.

Timothy, Chicago, United States of America

You (The West) will not succeed in re-editing slavery and colonialism . Great Britain is responsible for the economic disaster in Zimbabwe by sabotaging Mugabe's regime because of the right policy of distributing African lands back to their natural African owners. Leave Zimbabwe for Zimbabweans.

J H Blaise, Boston, USA

The only viable solution is an uprising by the middle level army officers and their subordinates.
Also, if the west stopped selling theme weapons, the people might be able to overthrow the government.
Way to go Tony,on living up to that manifesto promise. I guess your owners wouldn't let you, eh?

Tim, Toronto,

I don't agree with using SAS only. What is needed is to obliterate all of ZANU(PF), the militias and the war vets. Otherwise they will live to fight another day. The USA is good at this kind of thing.

Charan Muzaya, London, UK

Humanitarian intervention, a white mans phrase for 'bomin', how are things working out with Meles Zenawi.

hall, london, lilliput

The verocity of Western Mass Media opinion is to create stooges in Africa. In Rwanda, they ousted a majority government and installed a minority Tutsi Government , just as ruthless, supported by weapons from the West! The same will happen in Zimbabwe, namely instability so they extract more platinum

Simon Namnyak, London, England

"...good liberals... sinister neoconservatives... starry-eyed neo-liberals... the antiAmerican left and the little England right."

Thank you for at least not denouncing African tribalism.

Paul Giles, Baku, Azerbaijan

Lets not kid ourselves, there is no diplomatic solution - not with this man. Pursuing one would only prolong the agony.

Tim, Worcester, UK

Hey people we are talking about and African dictator in a country so badly run that the countries armed forces will join any armed uprising for a guarantee of a job for 12 months. This talk of sending in armies is just silly. One SAS squad could quite easily sort this out in 2 days.

Lloyd, London,

Simply not worth one more draped coffin returning to this Island. Africa wake up, and clean your back yard.

Vini, London, UK.

There is no resistance from people who have nothing. Go in get Mugabe and put him in chains take him to The Hague and charge him with crimes against humanity. This hysteria saying we have to send our sons and daughters into harms way is nonsense. He is a dictator of straw, he is a nobody a nothing.

Lloyd, London,

How would Veterans and Youth Militia behave if several of them were picked off? Would they start wholesale massacres or retreat in a fright? Why do Zimbabweans not fight back? Weapons are easy to come by. Try laying into them and see what happens. It can't be any worse than just waiting to be killed

Colin, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Iraq was invaded by the Western powers because Saddam had launched missiles against Israel, after being evicted from Kuwait under a UN mandate. Robert Mugabe presents no threat to Israel, so the rest, as the bard said, is silence.

Edmund Burke, Kingston upon Thames, England

Alexander Chr. Adrian, Oslo, Norway
Why the UK or USA? Because these are English speaking countries with a long historical connection with Zimbabwe. Most of the middle and ruling class in Zimbabwe were educated in UK or USA. Zimbabwe has NO historical connections with China or Russia, thank you!

Charan Muzaya, London, UK

Zimbabwe deserve the government they've got.
Iraq deserved Saddam.
Afghanistan deserved the government that the Pakistanis created, The Taliban.
The people of the UK & US overthrough their own tyrants.
We must now accept that the death of one allied soldier isn't worth the lives of these people

Frank Jackson, Whyalla, South Australia

I agree with Paul Owen. The job could be done in a month by a mobile SAS team carefully targeting its attacks against the regime. With that gone all opposition would melt away. This is totally unlike the Balkans with its deep seated ethnic and religious divide, whch anyway was successfully resolved.

Alastair, Rye, UK

All dictators come to a bloody end, as we've seen in eastern Europe. Mugabe will be no exception. The man to be locked up now is Mbeki, who is prolonging the misery in Zimbabwe. He also created misery in S. Africa, refusing to supply drugs for treating AIDS with the response 'Let them eat garlic'.

Chang, London, England

Let Africa get on with it by themselves. They threw out the productive white farmers and chopped the land up into subsistence 'shambas' and there it will remain until starvation and disease kills them if their own bullets doesn't get them first.

M Wilson, Bidache, france

If there is intervention it cannot be followed by an invasion of Western business looking to exploit a country in profoud turmoil as has happened too often elsewhere. That would confirm the world's suspicions that self interest not principle is the West's primary motivation.

Jonathan, London,

The West should stay out of Africa and make them sort out their own problems.Nor should any Africans be allowed to leave to seek asylum in the West. The West has meddled too much and too long and Africa has enjoyed excuses for too long not to seek stability

bob holmes, axbridge, England

I may be on the wrong side of this hysteria about Zimbabwe.

Egypt is murdering Blacks trying to enter Israel and is being paid for each corpse. Morocco is torturing on behalf of the US-UK which is plundering an Iraq with over 1.3 million dead as a result.

And Martin Invens wants what?

JOHN ISH ISHMAEL, TORONTO, CANADA

Is the MDC really the answer ?

What about the Chinese presence there now ?

What would be the exit strategy ?

Bosnia and Kosovo were both supposed to be quickies but troops are still there, many years later.

Stan(expat), USA, USA

After smasing "successes" like Afghanistan an Iraq we need another(!) invasion in some third world country by British or American troops? Why not consider what the U.S. have tried with Castro. Assasinate the man! Or ask the Russians or Chinese if they want to police Zimbabwe? Why the US or the UK?

Alexander Chr. Adrian, Oslo, Norway

Jim Wills, a one world government would be a terrible idea, we would all be living under tyranny. When the next Hitler comes along there would be no sovereign nations to defeat him.

Martin, Zimbabwe got it's independence and like the rest of Africa is ruling itself badly. Not our problem.

Emily, Galway, Ireland

There are enough refugees in SA to get together an invade their own country if somebody would give them the ammunition. I would support helping them do so.

I do not support sending young men out to the other side of the world to die for an Africa which has no interest in saving itself.

Emily, Galway, Ireland

Last week it was Iraq, this week Zimbabwe, next week Canada?
When will we learn, you can not teach democracy with the pointy
end of a gun. Don't get me wrong, I would stand with England,
Australia and Canada, even Germany; but this is not our fight.

John, Placentia, Republic of California

And after the topple..?

It's all about land. The subsistence farmers aren't interested in feeding the country and the big shots with the really productive farms will scream "the white man is back".

If we go in it's for a generation while we change mindsets. Are we prepared for that?

Ted, Cheshire,

And what about Australia's efforts?

Richard, Plymouth,

Surely you have lost your senses or are in jest. Just where in either Europe and Africa, can one find a nation with the courage and the willpower for such an effort? And through which country would such a European nation march in order to reach Zimbabwe.

Europe must shed its White Man's Burden.

Bob Evans, Anaheim, California

What a stupid idea. Zimbabwe will be like Iraq, there will be a political vacuum and our troops will get attacked by Mugabe's guerilla fighters. They wanted the freedom and the British out, so with freedom comes responsibility. They need to fix their own mess and the West should stay out of it.

Paul, Bucks, England

A one world government is the only solution to this type of problem. Nations all going in differnet directions is the main cause of the planet's problems. Britains efforts need to be directed towards this end.

Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia

Your news story suggests that Zanu will move swiftly to eradicate all opposition. A rapid British military intervention may be the only hope for the millions of oppressed and exiled Zimbabweans, who would welcome it as liberation, not re-colonisation. I hope that the UK has contingency plans ready.

Faustino, Brisbane, Australia

Excellent article. But: 1. Europe leaders won't support overt intervention. 2. UK military so overstretched it could not do this if UK wanted to. 3. Zero support in US for any more foreign military action. 4. Moral outlooks don't equate to national interests. Re W. Wilson's 14 pts. failure

Terry L. Walker, Ladson, SC / USA

Intervention - doesnt that mean you need to fund your military adequately? or should we outsource that too!

Richard, Plymouth,

Surely an invasion of Zimbabwe would be a cake walk? The army and police are desperate to change sides. Only Mugabe and a few cronies at the top are clinging on and are not persuadable. The bullying thugs who are doing his beating and killing would melt away if faced by soldiers who fight back.

Paul Owen, Birmingham, UK

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