When I’ve had a difficult day, or if I just need a quiet place to think things over, there’s a remedy that seldom fails: I close the bathroom door, run a hot bath, lie back and let my anxieties evaporate in the gently rising steam. But at 96p a time – compared with 41p just four years ago - this homely pleasure now looks like extravagance.

Maybe I’ll have to settle for a quick shower and find somewhere else to worry about the falling value of my home or the escalating cost of feeding my family.

Last week’s announcement by British Gas of a 35% rise in gas bills, plus 9% on electricity, means that the cost of heating our homes is going to take a big slice out of the average household budget. Gas prices are already up by 60% since 2004, electricity costs have risen by 40% in the same period. For the elderly on fixed incomes, the pain is greatest and the worry about keeping warm will be most acute.

The problem is not confined to pensioners, however, and will not be solved by a £50 top-up to the winter fuel allowance. It is estimated that by Christmas 6m households will be defined as “fuel poor” – spending more than 10% of their income on gas and electricity. The prospect of the government fulfilling its 2001 pledge to eradicate fuel poverty now looks about as likely as Gordon Brown winning the next election.

The government’s reaction to the British Gas announcement follows a pattern that has become all too familiar as its economic woes pile up. First, blame global factors, in particular the price of oil. Then float the possibility of a windfall tax on the supposed culprit. Demands from union leaders for a £500m levy on energy profits to provide handouts for the fuel-poor have already been supported by Conservatives in the Local Government Association and look like an easy hit for a nervous prime minister desperate for support from cash-strapped voters.

The risks attached to penalising energy companies and operating an unpredictable tax regime were underlined on Friday when EDF, the French supplier, unexpectedly pulled out of its projected deal with British Energy. The collapse of the deal, which was intended to provide the UK with a new generation of nuclear power plants, will leave the government with an even bigger energy headache.

It is a headache of the government’s own making. Yes, oil prices do affect the cost of gas, but the biggest driver of domestic energy prices is the UK’s inability to be energy self-sufficient despite rich natural reserves and our one-time world leadership in nuclear power. Our lack of independence leaves us with a looming energy gap as we scrabble for power supplies on the world markets. The gap will yawn wider in the coming few years and will present the next government with an energy crunch that could be even more painful than today’s credit crunch.

Our dependency on gas is at the heart of the problem. As UK natural gas resources dwindle, we are increasingly dependent on gas bought from Europe, Russia and the Middle East. Last year the UK imported 27% of its gas. This year the proportion will rise to 40% and by 2015 is predicted to reach 75%.

The shocking fact is that, due to appalling energy planning, Britain is burning more and more gas to make electricity. Where gas is used directly for heating and cooking it is nearly 100% energy-efficient. But when gas is burnt to generate electricity, it is only 50% efficient, due to the heat lost in the process. At present, nearly 40% of UK electricity is generated by burning gas. Government ministers who scold us for failing to insulate our homes should be reminded of this chronically wasteful use of resources.

Why are we consuming our vital gas reserves in this way? Because this government has spent the past 11 years dithering over its energy policy. Unable to take any decision on nuclear power until its late conversion in 2006, Labour has also been too nervous of the green lobby to agree to new coal-fired power stations. At present, coal provides more than a third of our electricity, with about 20% from nuclear. Wind power accounts for 1%, with about 3% from other renewables, such as hydro and biofuels. Nearly half of our nuclear and coal-fired power stations will be phased out during the next 6-8 years. Even if we can succeed in building the thousands of wind turbines that the government has promised, the inconstancy of wind generation means that they must be backed up by conventional power sources.

Had the EDF nuclear deal gone through, the first of its plants would have been running by 2017. Now who knows how long it will take for another partner to emerge?

As for coal, the most advanced of the plans on offer is at Kingsnorth in Kent, where E.ON wants to build a “cleaner coal” power station. Planning permission has been granted by the local council, but final approval from the government is still awaited and climate change activists are gathering this weekend for a mass protest.

Which way will the Tories jump? Greg Barker, the shadow environment minister, says a Conservative government will provide a “test bed” for carbon capture and storage. E.ON’s assurances that Kingsnorth can be fitted with carbon capture as soon as the technology is available may provide the Tories with sufficient comfort to bless this scheme. But if their carbon capture conditions sound too onerous, power companies may back off from the rest of the replacement coal stations proposed.

David Cameron knows that he cannot risk leaving an energy policy gap. After initial reluctance he has endorsed Labour’s nuclear strategy, but says that his government would refuse to subsidise the industry. Now that this strategy has been dealt a body blow by the EDF withdrawal, it may be wiser for the Tories to keep the door open. Even with the cost of decommissioning, electricity generated by nuclear power is less than half the price of wind.

When the energy crunch comes, Cameron is likely to be in 10 Downing Street. He will have no desire to follow in the footsteps of Edward Heath and be forced to order national power blackouts. I might have to give up those long hot baths – but I draw the line at cleaning my teeth in the dark.

Jill Kirby is director of the Centre for Policy Studies

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