Michael Portillo
Enter our Snapshots of Summer photography competition
Conventional wisdom has it that the last thing David Cameron wants is a change of Labour leadership. Gordon Brown is grumpy, unpopular and discredited, so any successor would be harder to beat, or so the argument runs.
I disagree. David Miliband’s egotistical bid to oust the prime minister could destroy the government’s remaining credibility, which will hardly help Britain or Labour through the economic crisis. If Brown is dumped, it could lead to divisions in the Labour party deep enough to exclude it from office for a decade or more. Whether Brown survives or is knifed by his colleagues, the Tories stand to gain.
If Miliband succeeds in starting a leadership contest, the public will conclude that Labour is finished. Resorting to three prime ministers in 15 months looks desperate, however you dress it up. Many Labour MPs may think that anyone must be better than Brown. If so, they should recall that that was also their general view when they eased out Tony Blair.
If any of them seriously thought that salvation lay with the foreign secretary, maybe his behaviour over the past few days has shaken them. His newspaper article on Wednesday was the most openly disloyal and hostile attack on a prime minister by a serving senior cabinet minister that I can recall.
His grinning performances at a press conference, when doorstepped by the media and on the radio were juvenile. He vacuumed up attention and flattery like a junkie. His demeanour demonstrated that he is at least unready and perhaps unsuited for the highest office.
Labour’s present crisis was triggered by losing the Glasgow East by-election. The government has merely received its come-uppance. It has behaved cynically towards Scotland. Having granted it autonomy, Labour’s senior Scottish figures – Brown, Alistair Darling and John Reid – have made their careers in the Westminster parliament.
The Scottish Labour party has been left to be led by third-raters who have been trounced by Alex Salmond, the Scottish National party leader. In Glasgow a Labour party that seems badly out of touch haemorrhaged working-class support. It would be a paradoxical response, to say the least, to replace the member for Kirkcaldy as leader with Miliband, a Hampstead intellectual.
The Labour MP Geraldine Smith called Miliband a nonentity who had been overpromoted. She was wrong on both counts. His keen intellect made it inevitable and proper that he should gain high office. But he has risen because his patrons, Blair and Brown, recognised his talents. He has not climbed because of public acclaim or support, even though a few callers on a phone-in programme last week were apparently enough to convince him that he is the people’s tribune.
Miliband urges change, today the cheapest word in the political lexicon. Correctly, he analyses that Brown annoys the electorate with his tiresomely exaggerated claims of past success and his confusion over future direction. But on a day when the foreign secretary was not otherwise coy, he refused to identify that way forward.
A year ago Miliband famously predicted that we would soon be yearning for Blair again. That is certainly not what most of the Labour party feel. They supported Brown for the leadership, expecting a move away from new Labour. Tired of Blair’s adulation of wealth and of the United States, they looked for a fresh commitment to social justice.
They have been deeply disappointed. Brown impoverished the poorest by abolishing the 10p tax rate and threatened higher duty on their old cars. He has backed down on attempts to squeeze more money from nondomiciled high earners.
Now he contemplates whether to use taxpayers’ money to underwrite the banks in order to shore up house prices for the middle classes. While it is true that Labour won the last three elections by being new, most of its MPs and the trade unions (which now have the party in financial hock) want Labour to move left.
Miliband may aim to replant the new Labour standard (which actually Brown has not abandoned) but others in the party see in the impending struggle an opportunity to purge the Blairites from the cabinet, where they are still massively overrepresented.
Labour has already begun the squabble about whether being too left-wing or too centrist has brought it down. All parties wage a variant of that fight but usually it breaks the surface after they have lost, not before.
If Miliband became leader (which scarcely seems possible, given the party’s revulsion against Blairism), that would not signal the end of Labour’s civil war but rather its intensification. It is hardly a prospect to make Cameron shake with fear.
I remember being puzzled when Harold Wilson, on his resignation as prime minister, said his greatest achievement had been to keep the Labour party together. The strife of the following two decades made his point. Never under-estimate Labour’s divisiveness.
Last week Bob Marshall-Andrews, the veteran Labour rebel, called on Brown to fire the foreign secretary. He is absolutely right, although if Miliband survives the weekend it may already be too late. Miliband’s office is his launch pad. Take from him his title and trappings and he would struggle to make waves, let alone mount a challenge.
It is said that some junior ministers are willing to resign to force a leadership contest. Then it would be good to remind them now that they risk being thrown into that outer darkness where there are few perks and little media attention. In any case, it is no easy matter to organise a cabal without the ranks breaking. Brown should act now while the cabinet is scattered around the globe on holiday.
Harold Macmillan once sacked eight of his cabinet in a day. If Brown did the same it would also, doubtless, be dubbed another Night of the Long Knives. After last week the prime minister could be excused for getting his revenge in first.
If, on the other hand, Brown leaves Miliband in place, then the plotters have all summer to coordinate their tactics. Nor can the government function if the prime minister and foreign secretary are on “no-speaks” and other ministers rally to opposing colours.
By not sacking him, the prime minister appears weak and vacillating. Had Blair dared to dismiss his ever-troublesome chancellor he might still be in power today and Brown would never have had to prove his inadequacy.
Brown must now take great care. When Margaret Thatcher returned to Westminster from a summit in Paris, having failed the previous day to win convincingly against Michael Heseltine’s leadership challenge, she invited her cabinet ministers to see her one by one. It must have seemed the safest option, since in full cabinet a bandwagon against her could have been set rolling. In fact, in such an intimate meeting each minister felt freed from any suspicion of conspiracy. Thatcher’s friends could then tearfully speak their minds: that for her own dignity she should resign.
Earlier this year I made a television programme in which some key figures involved in the recent history of the Conservative party participated. None was in any doubt that deposing Thatcher had cast a dark shadow over the party for many years. Chris Patten and Kenneth Clarke, who had been critical of her and had urged her to quit, both reflected that for the Tory party’s long-term wellbeing it would have been better had the electorate, rather than the party, ended her political career.
One participant commented that the television programme itself – appearing nearly 18 years after the event – had helped at last to clear the poisonous air.
On that basis, if Miliband succeeds in toppling Brown, Labour can anticipate almost a generation of feuding. In the short term Cameron may miss the easy target: his dour and lumbering opponent across the Commons chamber. But if Labour ruptures once more, then the Conservatives could look forward not just to an election win but also to another era of political supremacy.
Martin Ivens is away
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the collective power of smart thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Flip MinoHD Camcorder
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
42,945
2008
71,450
Car Insurance
Not Specified
MI6
UK-based
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Save up to £1,000 per couple with Elite Vacations at the five-star Constance Lemuria Resort
and do the British Isles this Summer.
Save up to 60% with Oxford Hotels and Inns
Try our inspiring luxury holidays to the Indian Subcontinent and South East Asia.
Great offers available
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Ross from New York,
not that UK politics doesn't get bloody - I'm sure it does.
I think the knifing reference dates back to at least Roman times and/or the Shakespeare quote in Julius Caeser and ' et tu Brute?'.
Paul, London,
Since the Cabinet are not going to support Gordon Brown, the only possibilities for Labour survival are for Brown to sack them or for them to sack Brown.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
Agree totally Michael. But the current crop of MPs couldn't manage a corner shop. Sack the cabinet & who will replace them?
This is the end of the Labour Party. Blair was the last throw of the dice. Bankrupt, no clear source of income, no clear social base. (I was a member for 28 years!)
Alistair Nicholls, Manchester, UK
All three major parties, are completely sold on the idea of a Federal Europe, and have absolutely no intention of representing the British Public in any shape or form.
As a result, 'The People' are not quite as stupid as the politicians thought, and are now making this clear at the ballot boxes.
Clive Burghard, Lancing, ENGLAND
admire u lots mr. portillo but ur wrong...Miliband is the man to lead Labour as for those who rabbit on about the Lisbon treaty and sovereignty.what planet r they on?
JOHN ROGAN, LONDON,
I support the view of the analyzer.
peter, london,
It seems Labour's true manifesto is a Federal Europe. To this end the rights of democracy are being systematically destroyed, the Lisbon Treaty being a prime example. Both Blair & Brown fell heavily on their 'spinning' swords; Labour has shown utter contempt for the British and our Sovereignty.
Jean Baker, Guildford, England
Labours performance triggered the Glasgow east result and it's their persistance that will bury them. They will be removed because of the Lisbon treachery - the one single thing that they could have got right - and they blew it. The rest I'm affraid is, in balance, irrelevant and too late.
Alan, Houghton-Le-Spring,
Michael Portillo, unlike David Miliband, is and always has been an honourable man. If he says Brown should reach for the long knives, Gordon should certainly think about it...
Paul, Recife, Brazil
If the nation has lost faith in this govenment and even it's own ministers have including the former PM why on earth dosent David Cameron call a motion of no confidence ( nobody should oppose) and a general election a year late this autumn? I do not believe we would accept another unelected leader!
Dave Farmer, Broxbourne, England
When a PM cannot be ousted, that is a sign of a PM who has been careful to surround himself with mediocrities.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
Could it be that David Milliband should be seen as a 'Cliff Richard' figure in todays politics??
mw, somerset,
MICHAEL PORTILLO..... probably the single greatest loss to British politics and the UK public in recent years.
CRM
Christine Martin, Glasgow, Scotland
"Knifing Brown"? How long have British people been using the word "knifing" in this way? I've heard of giving someone the axe. But "knifing"? We don't use that expression in America. And before you ask, we wouldn't say "shooting Brown" either.
Ross, New York,
The Tories lost it when they became a set of factions instead of a team. Labour goe the same way. Whoever's next will be just as expensive and probably even more useless. Anyone brave enough to promise tax reduction and a written consitution, I'm all ears and open to offers in exchange for my vote.
KR, Stockport,
What Labour needs is a Big Brand - not a miniband of school boys and dinner ladies.
Marty, London,
The fact is that the electorate have seen what this government are; a bunch of liars who are only in it for their own interests. Brown is totally incompetent and Miliband, yet another politician with no experience of working in the real world. New Labour are dead and good riddance.
Paul, West Midlands,
What is the point of Gordon Brown?
Ian OLIVE, Nanteuil, France
"Labour has already begun the squabble about whether being too left-wing or too centrist has brought it down" when in fact sheer incompetence, spectacular waste and lunatic policies have been the real problem.
Marcher Baron, Welsh Marches,
Kill Labour? Please get on with it Mr Milliband and save the UK!
david webb, bournemouth, uk
The purpose in life of Gordon Brown is to demonstrate how good Tony Blair was for this country, even if you may disagre with some of his decisions.
Do accountants make good CEO's ?
No.
By Gordon, sooner you go the better.
Graham, Fleet, UK
Brown should have fired Miliband after his TV news conference - he has left it too late.
His indeciveness has been his downfall -- now he could redeem himself by calling a snap general election.
Miliband has certainly not been a shining light as Foreign Secretary - his grin is nauseating!
Chips Westwood, Sarlat La Caneda, France
Dont blame Miliband, Mr Brown brought this upon himself, 10 years of positioning, not allowing Labour a real choice post Blair, and then he gets the job but doesnt know how to lead... Miliband is Labours only hope... but I dont expect them to go that route until Cameron destroys Brown and his cabal
matt, london,
If any leader of any party wanted to put a vote to the elector regarding leaving the EU He would get my vote which ever party was in power. I would think better of Mr Brown if he would give us all a vote on the EU constitution
Mike W, Templecombe, United Kingdom
An American in despair over the political situation in the USA aked me for my opinion of who was the most capable leader for the UK?
After due consideration i chose another Scot
Alex Salmon
Should we move our executive to Edinburgh making it the capital of the UK? I am Cornish by birth1
Ivor, Merseyside, UK
Is it not amusing that an ex-conservative minister wishes Gordon Brown to stay as Prime Minister? If ever I have heard of a reason to let Mr Brown go, Mr Portillo's pseudo-support of him must be the best. With Brown Labour is finished, without him, Labour MAY be finished.
Marc, Paris, France
LABOUR DON'T GET IT..They are elected to represent the
BRITISH people, but they represent European beaurocrats,
promising us a referendum then reneging and traitorously
signing away our future, yet it is the BRITISH people they
rely on for power not the beaurocrats, PATHETIC.
Jeremy, Somerset, U.K.
Labour have lost touch with reality, promise us a referendum
and then lyingly deny it, massive borrowing and taxes on an
unreformed public sector, massive inflation and tell us no
pay rises for us (plenty for them) they are a joke and yet look
amazed that the people have turned against them.
Frederick, Hampshire, U.K.
I don't think Labour realise how angry people are with them.
Lisbon Treaty, massive taxes, borrowings, inflation, no law
and order, expensive poor state education system, trying to
control peoples lives, the list goes on. Their best response
is a grinning twit trying to become the new leader.
Tom, Northampton, England
Bad analsyis, Mr Portillo. In no way can Thatcher and Brown be favourably compared. The recriminations that followed her demise were sparked by post-decpaitation grieving after a truly successful PM. If Brown were to be evicted soon from No 10, who will care to remember his litany of inadequacies?
Paul Moss, Coventry, UK
Miliband may well have intellect, as you say, but what is going for him stops there. Having watched him closely since he was touted as a future PM I concluded that he is far to light weight. On the world stage he comes over as ineffectual, immature, lacking in stature and a man few take seriously.
D Case, Newquay,
Eric, Southwick, England
Do you see pixies at the bottom of the garden?
judy, Liverpool, England
good grief.......the JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON brigade are in full flow this week.........allthis negative tory motivated moaning and groaning has distinct signs of a bunch of pampered brats with a Bullingdon Club mentality.............Labour can still defeat thetorysat the GE and they knowthat too
Eric, Southwick, England
Portillo 1994 Millibanned 2008 same loyalty to the leader the Tories would not have been defeated in 1997 if portillo had been loyal to party and not put ambition first. Brown should learn from this.
the years in the wilderness for the tories were the fault of disloyalty so Brown should take note
Bruce, Leith,
Knifing Brown will kill Labour lmao
try
Knifing tony has killed Labour
phillip, swansea, wales
A Milibandwagon is defined as the smallest amount of support for a leadership bid visible to the naked eye.
Peter Croft, Cambridge, UK
Isn't that what we all want?
Go on Minibean - stick the knife in.
Minibean may be a big yahoo with the very people he has sucked up to but calling him talented is stretching things a bit.
Maybe in a lecture hall, or an Islington dinner table but running the country....?????.
Pinkie, London, United Kingdom
labour is only a name after 10 yearsof bliarism/ thatcherism, rob the poor to feather the rich is the mantra of both tories and labour, its left the country in a state of beafburgers,bingers,bankruptcy,the pound is worhless ao are the principles of labour and tories.
michael joseph, cahersiveen.adams towns, madness
I think Milliband is very like Portillo. Enuff said.
Scott, Bangkok, Thailand
I can forsee the Liberals having a turn in six years time. People have had enough of labour, but if the Tories win power and fail they also will fall from grace. The electorate is not to be ignored, because if it continues the far right parties will grow!
Darren, Radcliffe, England
Your comments are spot on Michael.
Stephen Holmes, Withington, UK
It seems to me that the whole of the Tory Party is terrified that the Labour Party decides to have a change of leadership.
I don't believe it will happen yet, but I'm sure David Cameron must have had a few sleepless nights.
Bob Price, Sunderland,
Miner , Perth, Australia
Thatcher did not sink the Conservatives; if that were the case how did they survive for another 7 years in office, including winning a general election? No, Major, Portillo, Lilley, Clarke, and assorted others can claim that particular crown, all in the name of the EU.
Morvan, Saulieu, France
I am with you Frederick. The Hague seems appropriate now.
Charles Dowie, Epworth, United Kingdom
Labour's dead anyway - so who cares! They've ruined our country and should be jailed for their incompetence and stupidity.
Frederick , London, UK
Big fan of Portillo but, as Brian says, great hatchet job on Miliband. No particular reason to think a contest now will send Labour into feuding any more than after the next general election.
Portillo's own boldness backfired - but Major, unlike Brown, had support as an elected PM 5 years in office
Axel, Jencks, Canada
Firing Miliband won't do. He's no Heseltine, but amongst the pygmies that now run the Labour party he does have some stature. That being the case, putting him in a position where he has nothing to lose would be a bad move.
Better to offer him something demeaning in the reshuffle instead.
Dave, Livrpool,
The whole of the government needs to be put on trial for gross mismanagement the quicker they are out the better for all
D. Fielder, Halesworth,
Mr Brown has ducked some unpopular but prudent measures. Ultimately that catches up on any leader. To get out of it just needs a real crisis, in which he is forced to tell the British people some uncomfortable truths. Then the political scene will be transformed.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
A good hatchet job on Miliband. However, Portillo misses the obvious point that labour are doomed to a drubbing in the next election if they keep Brown( surely that is what he wants). Perhaps his attack on Miliband is an attempt to keep Brown in Office. Labour need a new leader NOW otherwise finito
Brian, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
I like Michael P and on This week I listen avidly. He is the best Leader the conservatives never had, esp since 1997. He is right the labour party thought and the general public hoped blairite policies would go, and have a more centre left policy. Shame on you JGB!!! its your fault. GO and now.
James , Brighton, England
I still think the Tories are partly to blame - if they'd elected MP as leader we might have had a decent opposition..!
JJ, London, UK
Brown is indecisive, so Miliband will survive. It doesn't much matter, Labour is now despised in the country and only miracles might save it.
neil murphy, Cromer,
One P.M. in ten years, Thatcher, saw the Tories wiped as a political party all over the UK,and everywhere north of Watford. She may even now, save Brown's,or Labours bacon after all these years, Because she still frightens me, and I have lived in Australia for odd years.
Miner , Perth, Australia.
Brown has lost the trust of the people and the confidence of the Labour party. Plus I don't think he is PM matrerial Changing leader may or may not make things better but I think the Labour party may be reaching the point where they need to take a chance from certain doom
John Goode, Welwyn Garden City, UK
Why is Brown even hesitating to fire Miliband? His odious performance this week deserved nothing less.
Labour MPs must also know that if they change leader again so soon they will have to call an election. Are they so desperate to get out of power that they are ready to commit suicide?
Paul Owen, Birmingham, UK
It's been musical chairs ever since WW II: Labour governments under Attlee, Wilson, Callaghan, Blair and Brown, alternating with Tory ones under Churchill, Eden, MacMillan, Douglas-Home, Heath, Thatcher and Major. Cameron will get his two or three terms but mark my words .. Labour will be back!
K Philips, London, UK
As perceptive as usual; always a pleasure to read your column, Michael. I really cannot understand the media adulation for Miliband - he speaks the same vacuous nonsense as Blair did - and does he like to preen before the cameras. The boy needs to grow up. Brown should send him to the backbenches
Dr. Ian Burgess, Bristol,
No change=no chance.
Labour are now where the Tories were in 1995. Divided, hateful, scared. Sooner the electorate can put them out of their misery the better (for us, and for them.)
Dr Blue, Rantington, Rantingshire
Michael's criticisms of Miliband are absolutely priceless!
kevin molloy, liverpool,