Ross Clark
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Much as I hate to oppose a tax cut, in the case of stamp duty on house sales it is necessary to make an exception. Yesterday, various rumours were doing the rounds: one version has it that the Government will allow homebuyers to defer the payment of stamp duty, another that the tax will be suspended altogether in an attempt to stimulate the housing market.
Invited to comment on the Today programme, the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, certainly didn't deny the Government was considering these options - from which it is safe to deduce that this is yet one more case of the Government floating a proposal through a controlled leak, then analysing the reaction before committing itself to action. It isn't hard to see why the Government is desperate to revive the housing market. Gordon Brown is acutely sensitive to the role played by house prices in the mood of voters.
When house price inflation was at its peak in 2003, he changed the Government's preferred measure of inflation from the retail prices index, which includes an element of house prices, to the consumer prices index, which excludes all housing costs. The effect was to move the goalposts for the Bank of England, keeping interest rates lower than they otherwise would have been and allowing the boom to continue. Whenever the housing boom appeared to be flagging thereafter, he pumped money into shared equity schemes, adding to inflationary pressures in the housing market.
Now that the boom is over, the Government has been fishing around for ways of trying to arrest the collapse. In April, Mr Darling attempted to persuade the banks to increase mortgage lending by swapping £50 billion of mortgages for government bonds - effectively transferring risk to the taxpayer. In the event, the mortgage-for-bonds swap proved a miserable failure. The banks said thank you very much - and then carried on tightening their lending criteria and raising their fixed rates.
If the Government thinks it can buck the housing market by granting homebuyers a temporary reprieve on stamp duty, it is doomed to a second miserable failure. How can I judge this? Because it is what happened when Norman Lamont, the Conservative Chancellor, introduced a stamp duty holiday in the depths of the last housing crash in December 1991. Housing transactions slumped from 1.306 million in 1991 to 1.136 million in 1992, which remains the lowest figure recorded in the past 30 years. Prices, according to the Nationwide, carried on falling, by 2.6 per cent during the eight months in which stamp duty was suspended.
In August 1992 Anthony Nelson, then Economic Secretary to the Treasury, announced the end of the holiday, saying it had cost the public purse £400 million at a time of rising debt. “In the longer term,” he said, “it is the reduction of interest rates that will bring about the firmest and surest revival of the property market.” In this, he was quite right: the beginning of the end of the last housing slump began a month later, on Black Wednesday, when the Government stopped trying to peg the pound to the mark and interest rates fell as a result.
A stamp duty holiday this time around will cost far more than £400 million. In 2006-07, stamp duty on sales of residential property raised £6.5 billion. Even without a stamp duty holiday this will fall by more than half in the current fiscal year because the number of house sales has plummeted. At the same time, the Government's borrowing requirement is soaring as recession eats away at tax revenues. In the Budget, the Chancellor predicted a public sector net borrowing requirement of £43 billion for the year 2008-09. Yet in June alone he had to borrow £9.25 billion. Now, with the economy flagging, would be a great time to reduce taxes - if the Government had the money. But it doesn't, because of its irresponsible spending spree during the good years.
Why try to pump up the housing market anyway? House prices are falling because they reached absurd heights: even after an 8 per cent fall over the past 12 months they are trading at around seven times average earnings. When banks were keen to lend mortgages of six times a borrower's salary, these prices were just about affordable. Now that banks have reverted to more traditional lending practices - a decade ago most were prepared to lend a maximum of three times a borrower's earnings - there is a huge gap between asking prices and what buyers can actually afford. Freeing buyers from having to pay stamp duty - which is levied at rates varying from 1 per cent on a £125,000 home and 4 per cent on a £500,000 property - will make scant difference in a market that is still probably overvalued by a third.
There is just one effect that the Government will have achieved by leaking the suggestion of a stamp duty holiday: the few people who are in a position to buy will now be tempted to put off their purchases until the Government makes a proper announcement on stamp duty, perhaps in September. Expect house sales figures for August to be the gloomiest yet.
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Anne, Bournemouth
There isn't much sun at the moment, noting the big slump in Bournemouth! As for demand, drive around any major city centre at night and see how many lights are on in those horrid new build flats (slums of the future) not many! I cannot see the next big rise for quite some time
The Eraser, Altrincham,
I work as a Conveyancer, soon to be made redundant as a result of the governments mis management of the current economics, from Hips which are a waste of time too northern rock creating an all time low in public confidence and they continue to fail us !
Samantha Kelly, Northampton, UK
Maybe this apparently incompetent policy leak is designed to help prices crash faster after a month of almost no transactions when it is withdrawn. A Machiavellian explanation, but perhaps Darling believes Roger Bootle's thesis that a fast crash is better? Perhaps not.
Mark, Woking,
This article sums up pretty much what I feel. I think it's disgraceful whats happened to housing under this government. Do they really think the people want housing to remain prohibitively expensive?
Simon, Chester,
Yes, that's right Anne. Demand will never wane, that's why the streets are full of people who currently can't buy. In spite of the population aging, house prices will continue rising for ever and ever and ever.
Robert, Hull,
The boom has created huge generational inequalities and all a bust will do is shift those inequalities to a different societal generation. Nonetheless, I have huge sympathy for first and second time buyers. Affordable family housing is unattainable. Has anyone considered the social impacts.
Joseph Wright, Seattle, US
Why not scrap stamp duty for FTB's, and charge 1% across the board thereafter for a limited time period. A revue has been long overdue anyway so this could help stimulate the market. A huge price crash will hurt many and benefit few, look across the pond and their crisis could be our future.
Barry Kilby, Hitchin, Hertfordshire
John Collins,
A house with a value of around £300,000 would be affordable (4x salary) to buyer/couple earning more than £75,000 annualy.
That's more than 3 times the AVERAGE UK salary.
Aren't we talking about upmarket prices when we are dealing with multiples of an average national figure???
Pete, London, UK
"an average £350,000 house"
What's one of those?
John, London,
Make hay while the sun shines. This is the big dip before the next big rise. Demand won't go away; it'll increase. You only believe in lower house prices in perpetuity if you were born the day before yesterday.
anne, bournemouth,
Classic example of Churchill's dictum of "standing in the bucket and trying to lift yourself by the handles". But there is another matter here. If his long term outlook is to make Northern Rock the "Peoples Bank", then we can see he has no understanding of how real jobs are created in the real world
Chris Coles, Medstead, Alton, United Kingdom
My hobby for many years has been studying credit bubbles and crashes. It is clear from history that money thrown in at the start of a credit bust is money down the drain. If the government really must throw away our money, then the bottom of the bust gets more bang for buck. It must wait until 2012.
Mike Holmes, Edinburgh, Scotland
Is it not a truly bizarre idea anyway that when you sell your house you have to give the government a fee. What does this perennially insolent organisation think it has to do with them in the first place?
eric campbell, harrogate, uk
As the average house should be well below the £125k threshold in any case - and if it isn't, then the 'seller' is asking far too much - such a 'holiday' should make no difference. Indeed, it will make no difference as property prices will fall back to levels based on far lower income multiples.
Paul, Coventry,
Does Darling work for the banks? Everything he and this craved government is doing vis-a-vis the housing market is aimed at propping up this bloated monster. People will easily see through this latest wheeze and remain firmly on the sidelines. House prices are falling fast, more pain ahead for banks
j dickinson, middleborough,
What of those wo completed in the last 2 years, I want money back!
John Abrams, Widness,
I don't disagree with a word of this article. It wld be foolish to try & stimulate a falling housing market with a Stamp Duty 'holiday'. Potential buyers shd be wary; prices still have a long way to fall. Govt is desperately trying to recreate a feel-good housing bubble but will only delay the crash
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
Having read all the articles in today's paper I can only deduce that HMG wants to pump-up prices to recover some of the losses it incured in backing Northern Rock! I doubt there is any long term reason for HMG's interest in this matter above this matter.
Alan, Gosport, Hants
the only reason they want to prop up the property market is because the last 10 years of high consumer spending has come from people extracting the supposedly increased wealth by remortgaging and other forms of easy debt. Heaven forbid we should actually repay any of this debt, no, just take onmore
Carl , scunthorpe, UK
Wake up Bill from Hull, "the absence of mortgage funds" is repairing the market not exacerbating it. Property prices at 8 times average income cannot be sustained and the govt should stop trying to prop up a false perception of wealth.
Olly, London,
One of the best articles I've read for a while. Even with recent falls, prices are still far higher than in the past in absolute, real and affordability terms.
This is another example of a desparate government seeking to meddle in the free market for political reasons. Let the market correct!
Andrew, London,
I have to say that I just don't get this. The slide in house prices is maybe at most 10% from peak, over a short period of time. This compares to a 50+% rise over the last few years. Why does this mean that the housing market needs proping up. Surely prices returning to the mean is a good thing?
Andrew, Herts., UK
It seems there is not situation so black that this government cannot make it worse.
As if the market was not bad enough now the few in the position to buy will hold back while they wait to see what happens. Or demand the seller reduces the price by the cost of stamp duty now.
Baron, No countryside,
I wish some of the smug "when house prices have collapsed we will all jump on the wagon" commentators would consider the "when house prices have collapsed we won't be able to afford to sell due to negative equity and you won't have anywhere to buy" side of the coin.
Bob, Reading,
The banks were willing to lend 6 times earnings - people chose to borrow that much - prices went up.
The banks choose to lend 3 times earnings - people can only borrow that much - prices must come down.
had the govt banned the earlier lending people would have shouted 'market interferance'
memeroot, leiden,
Absolute madness. This government has completely lost the plot! When will they get it that it is GOOD that our vastly overvalued housing stock comes back down to earth? Who exactly will the government be "helping" with these measures? Certainly not the young productive members of our society!
Paul, London,
Dispense with it for ever, Stamp Duty is an unfair tax, why should people who have to move house often, due to job relocation or for other reasons have to pay this, more than someone who stays put. Its another unequal increasing stealth tax that a grasping government gradually loads upon its people.
R George, Bristol, UK
The IMF has been warning this country over a number of years about the house price bubble and Brown ignored it and spent and spent. These financial holidays he is offering; the tax payer will in the end be forced to pay more tax to cover the national debt. Smell the coffee, this country is bust!!!
M. Butcher, W-s-M, England
Whatever the Government decides to do, they need to take decisive action and not dither. Why? The uncertainty will otherwise help to lock up the stagnant market even more. I am buying a house that is in the 3% stamp duty bracket. My reaction to the news? Stop the purchase and wait and see.
Caspar Craven, Surrey, UK
Stamp duty is a bad tax which hampers the functioning of the economy by taxing relocation for purposes of employment. It should be abolished forthwith. Why should I have to pay Treasury £20 000 simply because I have to move?
Arnold Ward, Weybridge, Surrey, UK
I find it quite amazing how this time last year no one thought that house prices could possibly go down and now lots of people at last have realised that having to pay 6 times your annual salary to get even the most basic house is absurd. No people like myself may actually be able to buy a house
phil , chester, uk
Stamp duty is far too low in England.
Stamp duty should be raised to put a halt to speculators that perverse the housing market.
Peter GODDARD, Epsom, England, EU
The article is missing the point, 1991 was about interest rates. This time it is the banks that are constricting the market. They are increasingly asking that the borrower has over 20% equity before lending. I was taxed £11k when buying my house when it could be have been used to increase equity.
Phil, Epsom, England
while prices might drop so that houses become more accessible to first time buyers, banks are tightening their lending criteria for those very buyers. Catch 22.
Jim, Taunton,
And what of those who have struggled in recent years to get on the housing market? Do I get a refund on my stamp duty?
Claire, Wells,
Good article: when will everyone admit that the last 5 years of house price inflation was just a crazy bubble?All the arguments otherwise can be easliy dismissed with solid economics (not in this tiny box though!). The market is correcting, so let it correct rather than waste more tax revenues on it
MB, Edinburgh,
Good article and i agree with most of it. In fairness to the Tories House prices were much lower in 93 so the incentive was lower aswell. As house prices have risen by 100% since Brown altered the thresholds, the thresholds should be moved by a similar amount. Brown gets his tax buyers get relief!
Neal, Reading,
Abolish stamp duty and instead:
1 - Apply capital gains tax to value increases of primary homes
2 - Remove council tax reductions for second homes
3 - Move council tax requirements from tenants to landlords (who can reflect this in the rent)
- Perhaps because MP's have second homes paid by us?
bv, Bristol,
Call me a cynic, but is this another example of a government trying to ingratiate themselves with the increasingly disillusioned voters? The housing market largely relies on credit - until this is offered again by mortgage lenders, nothing will assist in any meaningful way.
DC, London,
If I read the leaked "proposals" right, the vast, vast majority of house purchases will eventually carry a far higher stamp duty amount, with a saving of up to a measly £250 for those buying below £150,000, wherever that would be.
Labour cannot believe we're that stupid, surely.
Will, London, UK
Prices are and will fall. But just watch how quickly they bounce back! Banks already starting to drop rates as swap rates plummett. Oil is dropping like stone. BoE rates will be 4% next year.
Banks will get greedy again and lend high LTV to make profits and property will rocket op to 2012 olympics
AJ Gowland, manchester, England
House prices have been inflated by the willingness of fools to issue mortgages above the value of the house and the willingness of fools to take out mortgages above the value of the house.
Time for a little commonsense. No suspension of stamp duty. House prices need to fall.
J Williams, Manchester, UK
1) Damn right.
2) Stamp duty should be made incremental 250,000 house 7,500 bill 249,999 house 2,499.99 bill is stupid and evil.
Socialism is about fighting the environment life is about adapting to it. The 91 stamp duty holiday was a stupid anti-conservative thing to do - as was tying £ to DM
edward green, Upminster,
So why cut taxes when house prices are falling anyway?
Isn't this a kick in the teth to anyone who bought at high prices and paid tax over the last few years? What subsidy do they get?
rikrok, London, UK
Well Said Bert!. First time buyers are united now and would not bother even to window shop. FTB are so convinced that the properties will be 30-40% lower within the next 24 months.
Kumar, London, UK
Arnold Ward, when property prices drop, it's because of economic reasons, e.g. a recession. So the first time buysers will be losing their jobs, and buying propertry is not on the top of their list! Forget about "affordabe' - get real
John Cussard, Banbury,
When Norman Lamont suspended stamp duty in 1992 it had no effect because it was only levied on the most expensive houses.
A stamp duty holiday on an average £350,000 house today would save the buyer £10,500 and would provide nearly a third of the 10% or £35,000 deposit required.
John Collins, Bromley, Kent
Finally, a sensible article on house prices! I get very suspicious of all these financial journalists who continually try to play down the housing crisis, blathering on about 'strong fundamentals' and 'corners being turned'. I reckon most are just trying to prop up their own property portfolios.
Daniel, Basingstoke,
The faster house prices drop the more quickly homes will become affordable.
Arnold Ward, Weybridge, Surrey, UK
This is further evidence in support of the need to substantially curtail or remove the powers of government to the point where little can be changed without very long public debate and consultation. Much of the cost of this process could also be eliminated, leaving only publicly visible debate.
Malcolm, london,
Paying tax on a purchase from savings that you have already been taxed to death on is ludicrous. If the 'capital gain' was taxed it would only be paid from 'profit'; lower cost to buyers would give the market a nudge in the right direction without costing our dear.gov.uk.
Danny, Putney,
Using my own hard earned money to keep me priced out of an overinflated property market and bail out the speculators. You couldn't make it up!
Nick, Watford, UK
There are too many different taxes as it is. Surely a tax set so low is an obvious candidate for abolition to simplify the UK tax system
Gareth, Oxford, UK
House prices are largely dictated by what buyers can afford, i.e what they can borrow. Hence the boom. Thus stamp duty is effectively a tax on sellers. Absent stamp duty, sellers will pocket the difference by way of higher price. So this daft idea would just shift money from taxpayers to sellers.
Tom, London, UK
Homeowners dont benefit from rising house prices, unless you borrow or trade down. i own my house I look forward to a 30% plus drop so people can afford to by again. Proposal more spin than substance, why not help housebuilders build home or is it to simple?
James , Brighton, England
No first time buyer cares about a 1% SD 'holiday' or 'deferral' when united their absenteeism from the market in the next 18-24 months can bring about a 30% fall in prices!
The only 'holiday' Gordon ("I will not allow house prices get out of control") Brown should take is a long one far far away!
Bert Futures, Islington, England
Agreed. The glubberment should leave well alone - what do they hope to acheive in the long run? Volumes will pick up when prices fall, why keep trying to inflated this already hyper-inflated farce any longer?
Richard, Guildford, Surrey
Great article.
1) Stamp duty holiday? Government cannot possibly afford.
2) Stamp duty deferral? Stupid idea. How long? How will it be recovered? Will the government get a second charge on deferred homes?
The public will have to accept that the housing market will only move when prices drop.
Brian, Manchester,
Next labour will be giving hand outs, 30% of the asking price. For me it would have to have a 50% value hand out, to consider buying. Or just wait a year and buy 50% lower!
oliver, colchester,
How much money is going to be hose-piped by this government trying to reflate one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history?
Let the housing market fall and use the money reserved for this futile attempt at bucking-the-market to plough into major transport and infrastructure projects.
Rob, Honiton, UK
nothing the goverment do will change this situation. factors dictating the value of property are too strong to fight against. banks wont lend the money, the public cant buy, simple! watch em fall!
rich taylor, coventry,
"The effect was to move the goalposts for the Bank of England, keeping interest rates lower than they otherwise would have been and allowing the boom to continue."
And this receives such little attention. How can the BoE be independent as an inflation fighter when Brown decides what inflation is?
John Mack, Aberdeen, UK
This proposal is another insult to the taxpayers of this country.
Why should yet more financial aid be injected into the grossly overinflated property market?
The property market should be left to correct to a level whereby average prices are on a par with average earnings.
Allan, Inverness,
Excellent article! Brown and Darling are so inept that it is difficult to see how much further they can sink. Borrowing a decade and a half old FAILED tory policy has to be the worst idea yet. Maybe a holiday (no phone, email etc) for PM and Chancellor would be better for the UK than a SD holiday.
Clive, Chichester, UK
The massive rise in house prices was artificially boosted by easy credit and 'sub prime' mortgages, which skewed the market.
The absence of mortgage funds is having the same effect.
The damage caused by the former will be exaverbated by the latter, without some form of intervention.
Bill Rispin, Hull, England