Edward Lucas
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When is a victory not a victory? When it dents your country's image, scares your allies and gets you into an unwinnable war with a hugely stronger opponent.
That is the bleak outlook for Georgia this weekend, after what initially looked like a quick military win against the separatist regime in South Ossetia. Georgia's attack followed weeks of escalating provocations, including hours of heavy shelling by the Russian-backed breakaway province and signs of large-scale Russian reinforcement.
Thanks to American military aid, Georgia's 18,000-strong armed forces are the best-trained and equipped fighting force in the Caucasus. But it is one thing for them to defeat the raggle-taggle militia of a tinpot place like South Ossetia (population 70,000). It is another for a country of less than five million people to take on Russia (population 142 million). Now the Kremlin is reacting strongly. Russian warplanes are reportedly striking targets in Georgia. Reinforcements are pouring in. And the Kremlin's mighty propaganda machine is lumbering into action while a cyber-attack appears to have crippled Georgia's websites.
For it is the information war, not what happens on the ground, that will determine the victor of this conflict. Russia is portraying Georgia as the aggressor, an intransigent and unpredictable country determined to restore its supremacy over an unwilling province by means of military force and “ethnic cleansing”. Such a country, clearly, would be unfit to receive Western support.
That seems to be working. European leaders have long been dubious about Mikhail Saakashvili, a charismatic US-educated lawyer who stormed to power in the Rose Revolution of 2005. Where the fans of the Georgian President see charm and brains, his critics - such as the German Chancellor Angela Merkel - see a dangerously headstrong and erratic leader. A crackdown on the Opposition in November, bullying of the media and instances of abuse of power among senior officials have allowed detractors to draw uncomfortable parallels between Georgia and Vladimir Putin's Russia.
These are misplaced: Georgia is not perfect, but it is not a dictatorship. Its leadership does not peddle a phoney ideology, such as the Kremlin's mishmash of Soviet nostalgia and tsarist-era chauvinism. It has a thriving civil society, vocal opposition and ardently wants to be in the EU and Nato. Moral grounds alone would be enough reason for supporting it against Russian aggression.
But on top of that is a vital Western interest. The biggest threat Russia poses to Europe is the Kremlin's monopoly on energy export routes to the West from the former Soviet Union. The one breach in that is the oil and gas pipeline that leads from energy-rich Azerbaijan to Turkey, across Georgia. If Georgia falls, Europe's hopes of energy independence from Russia fall too.
Yet the West is both divided and distracted. America will be furious if reports turn out to be true that Russian warplanes bombed an airfield where Pentagon military advisers are based. But a lame-duck president is not going to risk World War Three for Georgia. In Europe, Georgia's allies are mostly small ex-communist states such as Lithuania; heavily outnumbered by those such as Germany that prize their relations with Russia, seemingly, above all else. It seems Russia is ready to hit back hard, in the hope of squashing the West's pestilential protégé.
In short, it looks more and more as though Georgia has fallen in to its enemies' trap. The script went like this: first mount unbearable provocations, then wait for a response, and finally reply with overwhelming military force and diplomatic humiliation. The idea that Georgia sought this war is nonsense. Recovering control of South Ossetia from its Russian-backed rulers has been a top priority for the Georgian authorities for years. But nobody thought it would come by military means. The Georgian strategy had been to use soft power, underlining its prosperity and the corruption-
busting successes of Mr Saakashvili's rule. That contrasted sharply with the isolation and cronyism of South Ossetia, which survives only on smuggling and Russian subsidies.
Now that strategy is in ruins. As things stand, Georgia will be fighting not to regain South Ossetia or even to deter aggression, but to survive. It is hard to see any good outcome. Georgia has failed to win a quick victory: crucially, it failed to block the Roki tunnel under the Caucasus mountains, normally used as a smugglers' highway, but now the route for Russian heavy weapons that Georgia cannot counter for long. Worse, the authorities in Abkhazia, Georgia's other breakaway region, may mount an attack, either on its own or with Russian help.
The fighting should be a deafening wake-up call to the West. Our fatal mistake was made at the Nato summit in Bucharest in April, when Georgia's attempt to get a clear path to membership of the alliance was rebuffed. Mr Saakashvili warned us then that Russia would take advantage of any display of Western weakness or indecision. And it has.
Edward Lucas is the author of The New Cold War (Bloomsbury)
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If the West does not insist on the war criminal Putin be first regarded persona non grata and then tried for the illlegal incursion into Georgia,we will see more wars to come. If Obama is elected, it will be Estonia to call the NATO bluff. The US must make a treaty with Georgia now, forget NATO!
Thomas, Zurich, Switzerland
"...But nobody thought it would come by military means. The Georgian strategy had been to use soft power, underlining its prosperity..."
Than what was the point for WEST to arm Georgia for last 5 years. If it is ineffective against Russia, then only use is against "separatists"...
George from Georgia, Chicago,
Georgia should not have started this bloodshed in Tskhinvali. Killing 2000 civilians in a night bombing is not what "small democratic country" is supposed to do. Russia had no choice. Ossetians trusted Russia and we could not betray them. We hit back. But hopefully not more than that.
Alex, Moscow,
Russians have no idea what is a real history of their own country. Mainly because the only books they are reading are written by PM. Putin. It's known that in 1924 Stalin signed the document which allowed the installation of people of the North Osetia in the territory of Georgia, called Samachablo.
Natalie, London, UK
The Georgians start war when
- they have pulled in troops though agreed to truce
- Beijing Olimpics start
- Ms.Rice has visited them.
Mr.Saakashvili is clearly an immoral agressor now.
Abkhazians and S.Ossetians have won wars at 1980/90s verge mainly by their own efforts.
luba, Haifa, Israel
The massacre which unleashed Saakashvili is now being documented by the prosecutors. The pro-western democratic man-eater will be brought to justice. Some western governments (UK&US 1st of all) will very soon have to answer uncomfortable questions. Their only shield now is ignorance of their people.
Alexey, Angarsk, Russia
Let's not ask a question how separatists got Russian passports. The important thing is that they did and as soon as they got Russian citizenship they automatically lost Georgian one - Georgia does not have dual citizenship.
So, tell me, why did Russian citizens live in Georgia without visas?
Irina, Toronto, Ontario
The thing is that a mass massacre of the Ossetians, which started on the night of 8th August did leave no choice to Russia, the evidences of war crimes committed by Georgians are horrifying! Everyone has rights to make its own moral choice, my choice is 100 % support for Russian actions to stop this
Stan, Moscow, Russia
Saakashwili killed 2000 civilians and TOTALLY destroyed Zhinvali city. This is FACT which can be and will be proved easily.
The situation seems clear, BUT "democratic" and "free" mass media says that Russia (!) is aggressor!
It is really unbelievable!
an-tin, Sankt Petersburg, Russia,
Dear friends! We are watching the Great Lie in the Internet! The reality is that Saakashvili FIRST bombed Tskhinvali on the Day of the Olympic Games! Georgian soldiers SHOT Russian peacemaking troops, peaceful population FIRST and only AFTER this Russian troops came to prevent further destruction. Remember Kosovo, and the US position in that case! If you understand the reality, that means your have a free mind. Thank you!
Dmitri, S.Peterburg,
If i was a resident of South Osettia, it certainly wouldn't be Russia i'd be thinking of as my enemy right now. it seems the West has a rather different view - almost as if they didn't really care for the fate of the unfortunate people in S. Osettia - perhaps they don't?
Marco, KrakOw, Poland
"Georgia is not perfect, but it is not a dictatorship" - even if we assume that this is true, do democracies have right to slaughter 1400 civilians overnight? We in Russia do not care if its democracy or tyranny. Democratic murderes should pay for thier crimes the same price as despotic dictators
Zloy Tugarin, Moscow, Russia
You are not calling Germany an "ex-nazi" country, so why should you label Baltcs the "ex-communists" 20 years after they had overthrown the communist regime, which was imposed on them by the Soviet occupational force?
audrius, vilnius, lithuania
Georgia thought it will get away taking over the breakaway region in one day during the opening day of the Olympics (when everyone makes peace and love, so Russians would avoid crossing the border in South Ossetia). If they managed to pull this out, Russia would have lost the main road in Georgia.
Ion, Bucharest, Romania
I think that it needs to be reminded to all (incl. Mr. Lucas) that the war was started by Mr. Saakashvili with shelling the civil city by rockets and artillery.
In general, if the West really wants to present Russia as it's enemy, they will finally get us as an enemy. Russia is not Iraq.
Roman, Moscow, Russia
Very good insight into the Western inability to make quick values-based decisions.
Audrius Matonis,
Lithuania
Audrius, vilnius, lithuania
Nato allies, while dividing former Yugoslavia set a dangerous precedent and put the blame on some of the nationalist leaders or forces. The USA administration also set brutal dictator S. Huseyin to believe that he could get away with the occupation of Kuwait. EL of course has forgotten all these!
erol, London, UK
BTW, how much time would it take for Edward and other Western journalists to stop calling Lithuania and other Baltics the "ex-communist countries". We are independent, Western-orientated free market democracies for almost 20 years now after the 50 years of Soviet occupation. We are iNATO and EU.
audrius, vilnius, lithuania
I'm relieved. This is the "less dumb" thing I read so far on this particular subject. After dozens of emotional and sometimes ridiculous reader's comments, at last an article that speaks some sense. Well done. Russia's attitude is unbearable
Francesco, Brescia, Italy
American "freedom" at the point of a bayonet or Soviet "liberation" at the point of a bayonet - it seems pretty much the same to me for the small countries such as Iraq at the receiving end.
Andy, Coventry, UK
To Henry Percy...
Sounds like you would LOVE to live in the Soviet era. Freedom leads to less war not more. Except if a less-than-free county (Putin's Russia) is spoiling for it. People like you who would just hand over your freedoms for some imposed peace and quiet
are sickening
Phi;, Boston,
For many years it was possible to see that the Russian-backed breakaway territories could generate nasty wars. But the West, and mainly Europe, ignored the Russian menace to peace.
Czechoslovakia 1938, Poland 1939, Baltics and Romania 1940, Hungary 1956, Czechoslovakia 1968 Georgia 2008?
MaGioZal, São Paulo, Brazil
Why the obvious overreach by Saakashvili? On its face it seems like Father Christmas brought a pony for little Medevev 1) halt the decline in energy prices2) a war game for the generals 3) show up the West & China or the possibility of Saakashvili being an "agent in place" acting on cue perhaps.
Patrick, Houston, U.S.A
Seems like the world cannot decide if it is going to be made up of a bunch of little tribes or aggregate together for power. Tribalism is the bane of civilization, but the whales dominate the small fish. Would hope that at least the women of the world could lead the way to non-violent solutions..
Talisa, San Francisco, USA
It's a shameful day for America. We have allowed ourselves to become too weak since the Cold War. This should convince us it's time to re-arm, to drop the old NATO and form a new one with our allies in Britain, Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltics.
Drew, San Francisco, USA
Ossetia is going to become independent? Oink, I just saw a flying pig!
Malcolm, Margate, UK
Did someone write that violence did not occur under the Soviets? Have you not read about Soviet intervention in Hungary? And if there was little fighting elsewhere it was because the Soviets ruled with an iron fist. Capitalism has its flaws, but the Soviet dictatorship was as bad as the Nazis.
Mark, New York, USA
I hardly think it is a case of Russia attempting to maintain 'law and order' in the world. Remember, that when Soviet Union fell, the 'new' Russia did just about everything except invade it's former republics to prevent them from gaining independence.
Sam, Aledo, Tx,
I pray the USA stays out. Its none of our business. More and more Americans want to see the USA become nearly isolationist and protect our own nation. The Anti Americans in Europe can deal with Russia and Georgia,
Dennis D, New Jersey , USA
Let the UN hold referendums in N & S Georgia on which country those 2 regions wish to join.
Ninety day UN supervised fair campaign with both sides allowed TV and radio access.
In this case, citizenship is murky, so let those only those resident in a region for 5 of the last 10 years vote.
Keith S, Winnipeg, Canada
Europeans once again prove to be nothing but a collection of squabbling tribesmen. I have a hard time believing the Russians merely want to "protect" the poor opressed Ossets.
James, Arkansas, USA
Henry, no this didn't happen to Georgia in the Soviet era.
It happened to Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary in the Soviet era.
Keith S, Winnipeg, Canada
If Russia wants to protect it's cityzens let it do in Russia. and Georgia is called "Georgia" from ancient times when Russians still were in forests and was not Russia as a whole coutnry. Gruzia is a name Russians made up.
David, New York, USA
The Ossetians are originally descendants of the Alans, a Sarmatian tribe. They became Christians during the early Middle Ages, under Georgian and Byzantine influences. Under Mongol rule, they were pushed out of their medieval homeland south of the Don river in present-day Russia and part migrated towards and over the Caucasus mountains, to Georgia[14] where they formed three distinct territorial entities.
David, New York, USA
Us and Uk should not have been in Irak in the first place, it should not have been in Afganistan and so MANY other countries ...
mario meduri, milan, italy
Well, the world keeps spinning in the same flush of the toilet containing it. Nothing new under the sun and all that rot. Big fish eats the little fish. (Yawwwwnnnnn........)
Eugene, heidelberg, germany
Doesn't Georgia have enough problems already? If South Ossetia and Abkhazia don't want to be part of Georgia, why is our ally behaving in this aggressive and anti-democratic fashion?
Baz, Gander, Canada
1,500 civillians dead? The number doesn't sound legit to me, especially when trumpeted by Russian news agencies.
Sven, Kongsvinger,
All those poles , liths, Ukraines, etc, who suffered under Stalins Rule, who now condemn Russia. Guess what You are seeing exactly what the Georgian President is capable of, why? Simple
Stalin was Georgian... Someone who did not care about his people but his own goals. I
Marina, UK, London
Two points immediately spring to mind. This never happened in the Soviet era so it shows that capitalist type freedom brings violence and destruction leading to a loss of general freedom. Then, it shows how easily a confrontation can start which, by one point of mishandling or misunderstanding after another, can develop into any degree of warfare. We can observe these events but we can do nothing about them.
Henry Percy, London, UK
As a Lithuanian I feel our relationship with the USA is more important then any relationship with western Europe. The Western European countries will sell you down the river for a few extra Euro. The Russians have picked on us and the Poles for some time. Germanys respnse was to by pass eastern Euro
Nick Knight, Laytown, Ireland
Pres. Bush, "Georgia's territorial integrity must be respected and "we call for an end to the Russian bombings".
Kosovo anyone?
DaveP, Beverley, UK
Sudetenland 1930s: scary comparison?
Peter, Phoenix, USA
to michael in virginia.......That was a joke like that from tex in dallas wasnt it? Please say it was.
John David, Puigpunyent, Spain
Once again the lefties will go out of their way to blame the USA. Russia invades a soverign nation, and it's somehow Washington's fault. While the Berlin er, Bejing Olympics show the happy face of EurAsian despotism; the true nature of such regimes is on display in Georgia
Lou, Ventura, USA
As an Atheist I wish I had a God to pray to in the hope of preventing this Brush fire war turning into WW3.
Remember what Einstien said 'I don't know what weapons WW3 will be fought with, but WW4 will be fought with stones'.
Why is it the Balkans are so much trouble? WW1 for example.
Howard , Basildon, England
Does anyone remember the Olympics of ' 56 and the Hungarian rebellion ? The ' 80 Olympics and Afghanistan ? It must be a new Rusian Olympic sport. The Russians need to be careful as the 2014 Winter Games are to be in Sochi. Not that the IOC or the UN will do a thing. Mama Bear is back !
Desmond Taylor, Houston, USA TX
E. Lucas wrote:" A lame-duck president is not going to risk World War Three for Georgia.
Of course not. The MAD doctrine worked as both sides had much to lose. Russia - a population of 150m, the West around 900m. The West is much richer. In any nuclear standoff, the West will have to blink first.
DaveP, Beverley, UK
Le Carré's 'Single and Single' was again way before its time. Post cold war gangsterism will compromise all interests in that region.
ljh, Windhoek, Namibia
Dear Mr Lucas, you conveniently forget about the "democratic" georgians shelling with rocket launchers (not your average "surgical strike" weapon") a populated city in the middle of the night just after declaring a truce. There are people in The Hague on trial for much less than that...
Pietro B, SP , Italy
It's OK of for the US to have 750 foreign military bases around the world & to be involved in rendition & for the US under Bush with his IQ of 92 to bombard Iraq with no UN mandate & slaughter over 100,000 Iraqi civilians & encircle Russia with missiles. But when Russia strikes back that's not OK
Bob Bennett, Sydney, Australia
The Georgians may have a fool for a leader but they must have had the go ahead from Washington.
Wars are all about power and control and never, never, never about freedom and democracy.
Alaqn Heaton, Frankfurt, Germany
I love the predictable comments of Russians here from Dept Nashi that refer to Georgia as a 'fascist regime.' As the old saying goes 'People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.'
Krys, Nottingham, United Kingdom
"Nobody would be at war with Russia..."
But Russian troops were already in S. Ossetia. So if Georgia joined NATO in April, then there would be a war, almost certainly, unless NATO baked down. Georgia wanted to use article 5 to declare war & push Russian troops & Ossetian people out of Georgia.
John Kim, Seoul, Korea
Did Russia not provoke this? Granted, Georgia's response was brutal, but it was inevitable. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, has Russia not caused trouble in the new independent states? Was Russia not behind the assasination attempt of the Ukraine president Yushchenko? Think lefties.
Paul Healy, Reno, NV, USA
Poor Georgia. As soon they started to get back on their military feet, Russia was bound to straighten out the various 'insults' to the motherland arising from the collapse of the USSR. More fool the Georgian politicians for thinking 'Europe' would take any risks for them.
Jack Nutine, padbury, buckinghamshire
If not America there would be no freeedom anywhere in Europe. Of course there are many communists/Nazis in Europe that could care less whether there is freedom or not.
Ivan, Moscow, Russia
I was just in Atlanta and I didn't hear anything about this? What part of Georgia is being attacked and why don't we do something about it?
Tex, Dallas, USA
To Tatyana. Nothing we can do about it. Looking back in history we can see that every economic formation in society ends in war. The oil era is finishing, the war is inevitable.
LD, London, UK
Dear Edward Lucas,
Ask Osetians about their relation to Georgia in 1990s, 1920s, and now in 2004, 2008. There are constant sparks of bloodshed. And you prefer to point at Russia and see all of it by your geo-politics conceptions.
Mikhail, Penza, Russia
When the last Soviet census was taken in 1989 the Georgians amounted to only 70% of the country's population, the rest were minorities. This was simply the result of the Georgian empire created by an ethnic Georgian, Stalin. He annexed territories north and south to establish a greater Georgia.
Alex, Cupertino, USA
More worrying than Georgia for us is the guarantees we have now given to the Baltic States Their sizable Russian minorities consider themselves to have serious civil rights grievances. Russia will want to sort out that situation quite soon . Are we likely to be on the right side here? Anybody care?
Jack Nutine, padbury, buckinghamshire
Here we go. The breakdown of international order as we know it. After Kosovo, the inviolilability of borders means nothing. It's open season.
Paul, Angelholm, Sweden
Either a trap or not, but it is not done to attack a minority. With such act any credibility is lost and most probably shows criminal intent. I feel that Georgia and its president have lost respect and that Russia has no other alternative option but to protect a minority. Energy is not comparible
Willem van Lith, Nijmegen, Netherlands
Russia should not have been in Georgia in the first place, it should not have been int Moldova an other countries ...
Virgil, Portland, USA
This attack by Russia is directly related to their "interest in carbon energy." They use the separatists as an excuse to assume control of an independent country's oil pipeline and squash a Democratic Republic to boot. Appeasement anyone? The good ol' day's of communism are over. Right.
Jared, Baghdad, Iraq
Paulius, you prove a great point. The West always encourages miniorities to secede, from Yugoslavia to the Kurds to Tibet, etc. Now, why not the Ossetians & Abkhazians? Have you got something against them? All miniorities are manipulated or planted one way or other, according to your terms.
ian cheese, london, uk
Pro-Bush journalist never mentioned that this is Kosovo all over again. If the US and UK had not recognized Kosovo independence, they would not be staring at the fact that many nations will soon be recognizing Abkhazia as a new nation.
Jack Cameron, Prague, Czech Republic
The United States is trying to create a democracy in Iraq. Russia is trying to crush a democracy in Georgia. Only the post-modernist Left could fail fail to see the immense moral difference between the two.
Michael, Virginia, USA
With money comes power.
For both the US and Russia, this maxim reigns true.
P Flannery, Glasgow,
Saakashvili is a buffoon
He lacks political skills and grand strategy to pull off a Georgia NATO membership under the nose of Russia, It ain't gonna happen.
There is nothing to be gained by getting in the face of Russia
Nicholas, California, USA
Russia is 100% justified. If west can break international rules for Kosovo then d same international rules dont apply to anyone. I want to see d chaos for the west which will be caused by China in Africa and South America once Olympics are done. Will make cauc oil effects on Europe seem like a joke.
Cvele, Thornhill,
The world should stop crazy dictator Shaakashvilli. Osetian people will never live again under Gergian control. Freedom to South Osetia!
Soso Paulashvilli, Los Angeles, USA
I am sorry, the Georgians have been manipulated by the West into a confrontation with Russia that they cannot win. The West seek the destruction of the Russians & are using Georgia as their stepping stone. I cannot blame Russia for their reaction.
ian cheese, london, uk
What truly amazes me is how media now days can easily manipulate people. The truth is that nothing in this region could happen without direct command from Washington, Ms. Rise was in Georgia just a week or two ago. US will never do something directly, they'll use some puppet like Sakashvili to do it
Gene, Los Angeles, USA
Well. If Russia is not given a clear message this time, we shall soon see more of the same elsewhere. They have planted "minorities" everywhere around. Next will be Ukraine, then the Baltic States... We must respond NOW!
Paulius, Copenhagen,
South Ossetians wants to unite with his northern brothers. In the Russian Federation they will be a republic more, with own parliament and auto government, with Moscow and the central authority far far away. Attacking Georgia Russia gains control of Caucasus and have a good excuse: Liberate Ossetia
Juanan, Alicante , Spain
My guess is that S.Ossetia and Abkhazia will eventually become another Transdnestria, lawless ''republics'' unrecognised by all the countries in the world appart from russia who gave out they passports like leaflets to anyone in those regions and now have a good reason to protect its citizens.
Dainius, Varena,
This is direct consequence to a completely wrong Western policy to recognize the independence of Kosovo. USA and NATO even bombarded Serbia for months, there were many civilian casualties, and now the situation is basicly the same, only the names are different.
Jane, Skopje, Macedonia
Europeans troubled by pipeline problem. By means American military aid Georgia's army became the best-trained and equipped fighting force in the Caucasus. But those Georgians which have been killing innocent people were administered by rage to another ethnic kind of people, like to animals. OK?
Sergey, Krasnodar, Russia
As always the West misinterpretes the real event. And the real event that Gruzia's (why the hell you call it Georgia) intent was to do ethnic cleansing operation, kind of a blietzcrieg. They failed since Ossetians stood up firmly. Russia did not invade but tried to stop Gruzia's Fuhrer from agresion
Alex, Moscow, Russia
I think that Russia and South Ossetia are victims. It's my point of view. Georgia attacked Russian citizens and peace-makers in South Ossetia. It is foul action!
And I have one question: "Why "Times" represents one side, Georgia. Where is information about Russian political position!?
Leonard, Paris, France
When US starts a war for no reason on the other side of the planet to gain contorl of oil and region, its called "war on terror"(lol)but when Russia gets into a war its labled as "agressia". Admit it, Russia is superpower in makeing and it shows that nobody can mess w/ it, including US backed Georgi
Vlad, los angeles, USA
Edward hits every nail on the head. The west (especially Germany) are scared of Russia. Europe's energy dependency on Russia has created this fear. The UK should follow France and build nuclear power stations.
The best way to weaken Russia is to stop sending $billions of energy revenue to them.
David, Denver, CO, USA
Amazing, how Russia is feared because of their energy resources control and military potential now. Does anybody understand that letting it get away with this invasion jeopardizes much more than just the independence of the ex-Soviet territories? They are getting nastier and hungrier by the day.
Tatyana, London,
Georgian aggressors? Thats as nonsensical as the Polish invasion of Germany in WWII.
Why is anyone in the world feeding this ethnic minority hogwash? When will the world grow up and see that almost all people just want to peacefully live their lives with friends and family.
Jeremy, Minneapolis, USA
Readers should have a look at the blog of the columnist to understand his point of view. Mr Lucas sees Russia as a menacing bully led by ruthless rulers. It might be the case -to some extent - but what should we say then about what "pax americana" actually means under the rule of GWB ?
Philippe, Brussels, Belgium
"Are you kidding? If Georgia joined NATO, then now NATO would be at war with Russia."
No, it wouldn't. Nobody would be at war with Russia. Or more to the point, Russia would not be at war with anybody.
History is made in the present.
Lee Clemens, Darby, PA, USA
And as for our fatal mistake, for me, it was changing the nature of NATO from a defensive alliance to a tool of enforcement of US hegemony, while at the same time enlarging Europe at full speed to include as much eastern countries as possible, without consolidating the Union first.
Philippe, Brussels, Belgium
I read the replies, especially from Russia sounds very familiar Russian official propaganda machine started working.
LD, London, UK
Ugly and fat mother Russia never stop...they occupied Georgia, Romania (the Moldavian part), Latvia , Lithuanian, Armenia, etc, etc, created enclaves with Russian drunker there, like Transnistria in Moldova or Ossetia in Georgia and right now control these regions by these enclaves after cold war
Ovidiu, Cluj, Romania
To my mind, the Georgian president despite his being "brilliant" and "charming" is politically naive. The unseen hands that prompted him on have since left him in the lurch!What moral law permits Georgia to break away from former USSR but prevents South Ossetia from being an independent nation?
Azeez Olaide Abidoye, Birmingham, United Kingdom
I've been under the impression that the Osset separtists shelled the Georgian military, hence precipitating the counter attack by Georgian forces. I would like to see a reputable news source set the record straight, so far the unprovoked Georgian attack is coming only from biased sources.
Gino, St. Louis, USA
Dear Mr Lucas,
according to comments, you might be getting out of popularity.
Cold war is an unpopular idea now, together with all its supporters, ideologists and promoters. Nobody wants you, Mr Lucas, with your ideas of war!
Marina, Saint-Petersburg, Russia
Learn from this that Georgia must never become a member of NATO. The West has no stomach for fighting, especially not someone as big as the USSR.
Peter, London,
"The US government will be remembered for at least 4 huge disasters in the world Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq and Georgia."
Equating liberation and freedom to disaster? Just another free-rider US critic enjoying security they have not earned and will not protect. What will you do when the wolf comes
A. Howe, North Carolina, USA
Saakashvili, a Zionist, whose military has been armed and trained by the US and Israel has been ordered to test the Russian resolve by slaughtering the Russian citizens of South Ossetia. Now that Russia is responding, those who will pay the price will not be of Saakashvilis ilk.
Phil Ishmael, Liverpool,
I think you have it exactly right. Georgia wanted US aid before Bush left, but Saakashvili will only get an embarrasing propaganda defeat. US and Russia both understand the bigger war coming is to the East: Iran. And that war is unavoidable. Hopefully US will not also fall into this trap.
jdcarmine, Pittsburgh,
Mr. Lucas, do you realize that Saakashvili killed more than a thousand civilians by shelling the peaceful city? Tthousands of homeless people are fleeing Ossetia - not to Georgia, but to Russia? Dozens of our peacekeepers acting under mandate were killed? All that before Russia even entered Ossetia.
Alex, Moscow,
"Our fatal mistake was made at the Nato summit in Bucharest in April..."
Are you kidding? If Georgia joined NATO, then now NATO would be at war with Russia.
John Kim, Seoul, Korea
Mr. Lukas wrote: "It has a thriving civil society, vocal opposition and ardently wants to be in the EU and Nato". The key word is NATO: anyone wanting to be in NATO is a good fellow whatever he may do. Georgia has proven why it wants to be in NATO: to begin a war and expect no reply.
Maxim, St.-Petersburg, Russia
We cannot have it both ways, we dismembered Yugoslavia
while an impotent Russia looked on, now they are dismembering Georgia while an impotent West looks on.
The Europeans won't fight in Iraq & Afghanistan, very unlikely
to take the Russians on. Why should'nt Ossetia be
independent?
Roger, Weymouth, UK
Seems like a simple choice. Support Georgia, or build more nuclear power stations.
andrew, swindon,
"Thanks to American military aid, Georgia's 18,000-strong armed forces are the best-trained and equipped fighting force in the Caucasus" - as author wrote - destroyed the town and killed at least 1400 civilians. Their blood are on all supporters of the georgian fasict regime.
Vadim, Taganrog, Russia
While some elements in the West are supportive of elementsts that want independence from China =Tibet , Xinjiang etc etc, They do not support the Ossets who want to break away from Georgia.
Why the double standards?
Sam New Zealand
sam, Auckland, New Zealand
Mr. Lucas, you better get your facts right. There is no "attack" on Georgian websites, and it is the Georgians that started all this by launching an offensive into South Ossetia where you have people who are not georgians but a minority. It's all Saakashvili's fault and this time he made quite amess
Nik, Philadelphia, USA
Above all, Russia wants to control Europe oil and gas supply lines, to shut the pipes down at times of their will. Georgia is a geo-politically crucial area for the West in her effort to remain independent, i.e non aligned with Moscow. Never trust the Russians, an old european saying still true!
Gil, Los Angeles, United States
Ameircan educated war monger started this war in the hope of getting the West involved in his side but the West is not that crazy to risk a world war III for the sake of his fascist politican. Russia is one of few counries in the world that maintain law and order in the international scene.
tateishi, Buenos Aires,
E. Lucas wrote:" But a lame-duck president is not going to risk World War Three for Georgia.".
What a disappointment, right, m-r Lucas? Are you really that suicidal?
Peter, Daly City, US
If we apply the moral rules used on Serbs, then Saakashvili is a war criminal who has massacred over 1000 innocent civilians in a cold blooded attack, in one night.
It warrants a western bombing campaign against Tiblisi, else hypocrisy reigns. Why is there so little interest in his war-crimes?
vitamin, London,
"The idea that Georgia sought this war is nonsense. "
When you open fire in an artillery preparation onto an urban area with massed multiple rocket launchers, like the Georgians did at the start of this operation, it's because you want to gain your political goals by war. And Georgia has lost.
rkka, Fairfax,
Looks like a replay of cold war times, wonder what name it gets then?
L Ballaam, Townsville, Australia
Mr Saakashvili started massive bloodshed after years of fragile peace, in the night before Olimpic games bombed sleeping city and killed lot of civilians, started massive military campaign against ethnic minority, so West must support, encourage and affirm this true democrat. OK, got it.
Sergey, Moscow, Russia
It is mainly the US involvement in Georgia that caused this tragic disaster. The US government will be remembered for at least four huge disasters in the world; Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq and Georgia.
What is making me most sad is that many of my Georgian friends will die due to this.
Goran Dalin, Stockholm, Sweden
Isn't it too much to make a trap with 1400 it's citizens in Osetia capital which were killed in unexpected well prepared attack. Why did US block Russian resolution in Security Council this morning when Georgia took 75% of the city but with th author condemn Russia stoping the fire.
Alex, Utrecht,
Sorry - there is no evidence of any attack on Georgian websites at the moment. Traffic to the .ge TLD is up - but it's hardly an 'attack'
Ian sankey, Paris, France
if Geogia is NATO member, it will drag NATO into a nuclear war.
ben, Dallas, us
An excellent analysis by Edward Lucas. The western leaders are gathered in the centre of authoritarianism in Beijing in the company of Prime Minister Putin. Do they have the nerve to stare Russia down?
Victor Perton, Melbourne, Australia
Mr Lucas
What you call " raggle-taggle militia of a tinpot place like South Ossetia (population 70,000). " is actually the historic homland of a small and oppressed ethnic group, namely Ossets. Oppressed not by the Russians but Georgians.
John, Wesport, USA