Richard Beeston
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Rarely have Russians had such cause to celebrate their hero. One minute Vladimir Putin was in Beijing mixing with Russian athletes on the opening day of the Olympics. Moments later he reappeared in the Caucasus, sleeves rolled up and directing a victorious counter-attack against his arch-rival Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian President. Fleeing refugees and wounded civilians were comforted. Generals saluted smartly as they were sent off to battle. No one was left in any doubt that Mr Putin, rather than the absent President Medvedev, was still firmly in charge of the country.
In the space of only five days the Russian Prime Minister succeeded not only in smashing the Georgian Army but also teaching all those in the “near abroad”, as Russia refers to its neighbours in the former Soviet empire, a painful lesson about challenging Moscow in its own backyard.
The decisive action was in sharp contrast to the response in the West. The war in Georgia exposed deep divisions in the transatlantic alliance and revealed the impotence of the Bush Administration in protecting its closest friend in the region.
Respect is something Mr Putin and many of his countrymen believe they lost when the Soviet Union broke apart 17 years ago. They may now feel that over the past few days some of that loss has been restored.
For Russians sunning themselves on the Mediterranean or enjoying the long summer evenings at their dachas in the countryside, this is the plausible narrative faithfully repeated by the state-controlled media.
Unfortunately, the conclusions they draw are completely wrong. Russia may have smashed its tiny neighbour but victory will come at a heavy price. The war will reduce rather than increase Russia's stature abroad, where the Kremlin faces growing isolation.
Since the emergence of the modern Russian state during the Yeltsin years in the 1990s, the country has been regarded as chaotic and corrupt but broadly peaceful and certainly no serious threat. Back in 2003 Condoleezza Rice, the Russophile US Secretary of State, famously advised President Bush to “forgive” Russia for its stand against the Iraq war, while France was punished and Germany ignored.
To judge by the language of both US presidential candidates responding to the Georgian war, forgiveness is no longer an option. Democrat or Republican will take a much harder line towards Russia over its aggressive foreign posture, its increasingly autocratic Government and the inescapable conclusion that Mr Putin is determined to remain in power indefinitely.
The Europeans may seem divided, but behind the bland statements calling on both sides to stop the recent fighting something significant has happened. Six European leaders, five of them from the former Soviet bloc, chose to stand side by side with Mr Saakashvili yesterday as he struggled to remain in power. The events in the Caucasus will only serve to harden opinion against Russia at Nato and in the EU.
The mini-war in Georgia may have surprised some Europeans, but it was expected weeks ago by British Intelligence. Thanks to the murder of Alexander Litvinenko, the ex-KGB officer who was poisoned in London by suspected Russian agents nearly two years ago, Britain has completely reassessed its relationship with Moscow. MI5, which reports that Russian agents in Britain are now back at Cold War levels, regards Russia as the third most serious threat to British security after terrorism and nuclear proliferation. Attempts to rehabilitate relations have faltered and the recent treatment of BP by its partners and the Russian authorities has only reinforced the view that Russia cannot be trusted.
Flush with billions from the sale of oil and gas, the Kremlin may calculate that it does not need allies in the West and would rather be respected and feared than befriended.
That too would be a serious mistake. For all its big-power bluster, Russia is weak and vulnerable. Russian tanks and aircraft may have smashed the fledgeling Georgian Army with ease, but most of the weaponry was Cold War-era and many of the troops conscripts. Anyone who has seen the Russian Army operating in the Caucasus knows that the military will need a generation to modernise. Meanwhile America, and its main Nato allies, are decades ahead in military technology and combat experience.
Russia is also facing a severe demographic crisis. Its population is shrinking by 700,000 people a year. The UN estimates the population will fall below 100 million by 2050, down from around 146 million today.
As for the economy, it is booming thanks to natural resources that account for 70 per cent of the country's wealth. But the oil price is in a state of flux. Russia has failed to diversify. Should energy prices fall sharply, the economy could collapse, as it did a decade ago.
Mr Putin once described the collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest tragedy of the 20th century. Trying to resurrect it could be the greatest folly of the 21st.
Richard Beeston is foreign editor of The Times
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Justin, bamberg, germany wrote: "If Russia is so great, why is everybody moving from it and why does the birthrate continaully declin? Who is going to support all those pensioners?"
I wonder why You are asking? Birthrate in Russia is 11,30 which is bad, but in Germany it is even worse - about 9,00.
albert, Moscow,
If Russia is so great, why is everybody moving from it and why does the birthrate continaully decline? Who is going to support all those pensioners? If the EU is going to have a hard time in 20 years, Russia is going to have 10 times the problem (oil is not something you can base your economy on)
justin, bamberg, germany
Any article about South Ossetia that does not mention the Kosovo war and NATO's bombing of Belgrade and the Danube bridge cannot be regarded as unbiassed. Michael Binyon (14 August) is much more balanced, as is Friedman in Stratfor.com or Professor Lieven in The Times (11 August ).
George, London, England
Were one falsely accused of a crime? Well I wonder what the yet-to-be-charged in Guantanamo (not to mention the illegally extradited elsewhere) would have to answer to THAT question...
Diana, New York, USA
all the agression by russians is organized in moscow. the rest of russia has suffered from moscow not less then georgia
ivan, rostov, russia
Keith in Winnipeg:
There is a world of difference between the US vis-a-vis Russia and China, and for you to say otherwise is ignorant and grossly unfair. Answer me this: if you were falsely accused of a crime by the government, where would you rather be: the US, Russia, or China?
Jack , manchester, USA
Yes, it's agression, aggrandizement, it was probably planned for years... but really, is there any good reason NATO's security perimeter shoudl extent to Tbilisi? The fact that the Georgians want us there adds pathos, but it's not really a reason. Whoever controls the gas and oil has to sell it.
Alex, Los Angeles,
We need a UN Security Council where the world's bad boys, countries with a recent history of invasion, war crimes, and crimes against humanity, don't have a veto.
Russia, China, the USA, it is the fox guarding the hen house.
Keith S, Winnipeg, Canada
Mid-July: 1,200 US marines on maneuvers training with the Georgian army; soonCondoleeza Rice visits Georgia.We are wondering who is to blame for the conflict?Look at the media spin about casualties and deaths in Georgia while ignoring the 2,000 dead civiliains in S.Ossetia's capital..by Georgia!!
Nicholas O'Brien, London,
Hong Min, Harbin, China
I believe you. That has been my analaysis since when a start studying Russia and the russian language many years ago. I believe that the change will happen in 10-15 years, as Russia population will be reduced more. Russia, with its attitude has no friends in the West
Anthony L, Chelmsford, UK
Alex , London , or Alex, Moscow
Russia's main income comes from row materials, industry is heavy metal, cars are from Chevrolet. Pegeot. It imports most of its durables. The technology is stolen from the west. Investment is from the West. Dream on.
Anthony L, Chelmsford, UK
Just one step closer to the One who will bring peace and rule the Nations with a rod of Iron. He came once as a lamb and allowed Himself to be crucified,Yet He had all power and even though all man and all God He rose. He is coming back soon but this time as a lion...the lion of the tribe of Judah.
Steve, Hanford, U.S.A.
I just love the Australian's and Canadians talking about the moral high ground against the U.S. U.K. when the Australian's where in Iraq and Canadians in Afghanistan. Where do they get off? If their governments sent just one person to fight they were in on it too. Less military makes you righteous?
Ed, Lexington, U.S.
Russia gave its plans away with cyberattacks on Georgia's government websites and it's internet starting on July 20 as reported by New York Times. Russia had troops in place along the border massed before Georgia attacked. They provoked Georgia over and over shooting and shelling Georgia by proxies
Ed, Lexington, U.S.
Russia has a colossal nuclear arsenal. Yup, Cost to maintain? Colossal. Oil prices cannot stay high. With reasonable prices the US/EU wouldn't seek self sufficiency. But now...
China/India & Russia NEED that demand. Global insecurity does not breed demand
Steve, Derby, UK
To G. Graham.
How come then, that Georgian tanks hve been destroyed?
And those weren't bad tanks, and they had antiaircraft missiles.
I wuld think that the arlane was just playing wih the nonmilitary targets.
Vladmir, Sydney,
Yakubu:
If you knew your history, you would know that Georgia was not always part of the Soviet Union. So, no, this isn't the SU getting their old territory back.
ster, Denver,
The performance of the SU-25'Frogfoot' ground attack aircraft against the BBC TV crew was indicative of how much the Russian military needs to modernise. They attacked three exposed (civilian) vehicles with rockets - and missed! Typical bully - all muscle - no sophistication!!
G Graham, Auckland, New Zealand
Russia has been flexing its muscles for a number of years. It has resumed flying missions to British airspace for the first time since the USSR dissolved and has increasingly been more argumentative with the West. If they carry on there will be a new Iron Curtain in Europe.
S, Leicester, UK
It's the strutting Saakashvili and his Neo Con backers who took the fall.
joe reilly, spalding, England
Russia is bully beating little Georgia. But Russia is poor country, population shrinking and become weaker every day. China become richer, stronger. China is patient, waiting, watching. Vladivostok and russia land in asia will be china soon, in 10, 15, 20 year. You will see. You will see.
Hong Min, Harbin, China
Strutting Russia still has got enough nuclear bombs, so that if it would blow them all on its own territory - it would destroy the whole world.
As long as foreign media will view the problem from the usa-georgia side only - no understanding to people of west will come. And it will always be NATOvsRU
Alex, Moscow, Russia
The Americans are far more diplomatic in spanking their uppity neighbours! They would have given weapons to the other side instead of mounting a full-scale invasion as the Russians did. Putin could learn a few things from the Americans. Not good these days, just to get some tanks and roll in!
Igor Krumitsky (Moscow), Moscow,
I believe the Russians refueling in CUBA (a known enemy of US) had multiple tiers of Nuclear Weapons on board. That wouldn't make you nervous ?
J. Philip Johnston, Mt. Olive , Louisiana USA,
After the fall of the Soviet Union I had expected Russia to reassert itself but after perhaps 50 years. That time has come much too early. Once the Russian economy improves further and more resources are diverted to the miltary there will a major conflict. We are back to the era of the Great Powers.
Susen Sarkar, London,
What a ridiculous statement: "Back in 2003 Condoleezza Rice, advised President Bush to forgive Russia for its stand against the Iraq war, while France was punished and Germany ignored." Thank you for forgiving Russia, big brother. This favour has questionable value, but thank you anyway.
Andrei, Moscow,
I can't say for sure who is right or wrong about this war,but I can say that media coverage of this crisis was pure propaganda.First of all as I know,journalists must present the truth not wishes,but hopefully as I can see in comments people around the world are getting immune to this brainwashing.
Vox, Skopje, Macedonia
What did Russians ever do to deserve the British boos: don't be plotting against them, it's not Iran. Just let them be! Does being overly democratic in your view supersede being objective? It is a battle between some Gazprom and BP, are you a shareholder?
Tim, Los Angeles, USA
I just wonder why no one interested to hear Ossetians, or their lives are not that important in this big great chess game call geopolitics, and to make Russia look as such an aggressor and bad guy (but, really, Russia does nothing different then US in Panama, Grenada, Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan or Britain on Falkland islands).
Marina, Chanhassen,
When Georgians said that Gori was taken by Russians, there were journalists from Reuters who said that they are driving in the city and its empty, Georgians left but Russians never came. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moHvY-Y_ph0&feature=related
Marina, Chanhassen,
I don't think that Putin killed 1600 people over night , most of whom were kids, women and old, Saakashvili new that the most of the men are on patrols. Who is a criminal? Saakashvili should go to Europian tribunal!
Marina, Chanhassen,
Guys, can you just fokcus that Georgia is an agressor here? they started the war, and their friends form White House didn't do anything to stop it. there were US instractors in the country, they new all the situation, and probably helped to plan. U bark on the wrong tree!
Marina, Chanhassen,
This article fails to take into consideration that Russia is part of the G8 and a member of the UN Security Council with the power to veto resolutions, hence being very valuable in dealing with Iran and North Korea among others. As for the feasibility of ejecting Russia out of anywhere perhaps...
gdp, Thessaloniki , Greece
Let's see: Thatcher is a great British PM for invading the Falklands to defend British passport holders against the historic claims of the Argentine state, but the Russians are evil imperialists for defending Russian passport holders from Georgian invaders who were allowed to secede from the USSR.
Yakubu Kasavubu, Toronto, Canada
to read an article on Robert Amsterdam's blog on McCain's proposals on Russia or an article from Fareed Zakaria on the same topic which appeared some months ago.
gdp, Thessaloniki , Greece
Dear Ivan, Putin will ruin Russia. Renewed strategic bomber flights, artic adventurism, Russian youth (Nashi), beligerence, state sponsored murder, tanks rolling again, renewed spying, state controlled media, bad business partners, renewed Cuba threats, efforts to blackmail the "near abroad" and EU
John, Ascot, UK
The vast majority of opinion appears to be against Russia. Can I just remind everyone that Georgia attacked first. Not Russia.
James Mack, Hutningdon, United Kingdom
Russia has made a terrible mistake in its handling of this situation. Now the West will give Russia the cold shoulder and leave it to face China on its own. The Chinese are already spreading into Eastern Russia and will swallow up the rest of the Country in 20 - 30 years - Your on your own now boys.
Riley, Kiev, Ukraine
Russia has problems (like all other nations), but it is not "weak and vulnerable". I doubt Russians would care too much if American and European diplomats don't talk to them and, given the fact that Russia's nuclear forces are huge - war is not an option. Let us not destroy our relations with Russia
Andre, Portland, USA
Putin is a criminal. As an ex KGB leader he shuould had paid for what he did.
If Russia become desperate, war will become an option and the West is weak.
Valerio, London,
The Russian behemoth has embraced capital markets and has enriched itself hugely by doing so.
It must not revert to type as a 19th century imperialist power dominating, threatening and subjugating its neighbours.
Either Russia plays fair or faces a second iron curtain.
John Collins, Bromley, Kent
Russia is weak. I have never respected them, and never will. Their attack on the small country of Georgia (just a little bigger than Switzerland with half the population) impresses noone. This was a huge blunder by Putin. I never took him to be very bright and this just confirms it.
Hugo, Lyon, France
Dear Mr Beeston
The oil prices will be high for a very long time ahead due to an increasing gap in supply/demand. In the meantime, Russia has growing telecoms, retail, banking, aviation and other sectors.
So leave your hopes of weak Russia to avoid dissapointment!
Alex , London ,
The problem is not about big Russia bulling small Georgia. It is about big Georgia commiting a genocide in small South Ossetia. The articles says nothing about that, which makes it completely biased.
You see what you would like to see.
Alex, Moscow,
Hey guys, let me add:
1. Russia HAS oil&gas, and it doesn't need any. We can intensify the extraction if needed, but it's not a point for your suspects.
2. Did WE make Georgia attack? No, they attacked not only citizens, but our peacekeepers - they attacked and killed soldiers of our army!
Artyom, Moscow, Russia
why did no one take any action when the issue was raised at the UN before the war and why was the Georgia not condemed for lauching attacks on innocent civilians? Why can't the people of the breakaway regions decide which side they want to be? Remember East Timor.
George, London, UK
Houses outside of Moscow sold 5 years ago for $5000 US, now $130,000. Moscow houses millions. Russia has immigrant problems, too many people coming to find work. The US is going down, Russia up. Worlds #1 Air Force US, #2 Russia, #2 oil exporter Russia, #1 user US. Russia is back.
Chuck, Tacoma , US
The reflexive anti-American responses from the Left around the world, although baseless, are to be expected. Let's see what Russia does in the next week or 2...then we'll know if their intent was to "protect" Russian "citizens". The truth will become more transparent as the occupation perpetuates.
Paul Healy, Reno, NV, USA
You always seem to attack the "sins "of the Russians your "sins" in Iraq ,Afganistan , Lebanon are always forgotten. After all the west is the policeman of this earth.Wake up little islanders before is too late.See the light and your hypocricy because you might need to attack Scotland soon.
Nicholas, LARNACA, CYPRUS
Good for you Uliana, Moscow.
The Russians love their kids just as much as we do.
Mick, London,
"Weak and and vulnerable" ..? what utter nonsense!
Russia has shown by this episode that it has the strength and the will to assert itself if it feels its regional interests are being threatened. We should perhaps all remind ourselves who the real power is in this part of the world.
jim, toronto, canada
3. Have you seen any 'ethnic'' Russian? Or maybe, 'ethnic' American? Hah, the only 'ethnic' american is Indian. All others are african, europeans (UK, Spain, etc), etc.. The same is for us: there are lots of cultures in us. So, citizenship is the primary proof! As well as for U.S., don't you agree?
Artyom, Moscow, Russia
No one wants war! Georgia have started it. Killed 2K Ossetians, 15 Russian peacekeepers. Destroyed a city within 24-hours after saying "we won't attack". What reaction you expected? Hey, the ones who say about "disproportionate response of Russia", compare the number of dead Georgian and Ossetians!
Vyacheslav, Ulyanovsk, Russia
The conflict and its temporary ending shows a line of separation between the prime minister, Putin, and the president, Medvediev. Putin declared war and Medvediev ended military operations. It is clear that Medvediev would not have chosen an "armed" negotiation and war only as the last resort..
Alain-Marc Rieu, Lyon, France
Time an again, Russia keeps demonstrating its thuggish and bullish intentions. What Russia is showing, by flexing its muscles, is that it still has not abandoned its imperialist appetites. However, any (evil) empire is doomed to a crashing end. Once again, any Russian-built (USSR) empire will fall.
Michael Basedow, Shropshire, UK
In long term Russia must have chance to go in the EU. Boris Jeltsin said this in 1999 and Bill Clinton in 2000.
Now it is already time for EU and Russia to work together on matters as gas, oil and energy. The EU began 1950 as the ECCS( Coal&Steel) with working together on energy matters as target.
Arnold Kramer, Ulestraten, Holland
I hear we are to have hydrogen powered cabs in the London olympics. Bugs are being developed which generate crude oil in California. Besides global warming, why can't we accelerate these projects via funding to remove our dependence on rogue states like Russia, Nigeria and the Middle Easten nations?
Penelope, London, UK
Can't wait for the collapse of Russia's economy.
Having travelled the world as a consultant to Governments & Banks, I spent 5 months in Russia during which time my team was chased by machine gun waving mobsters.
A collaborative partner secured its interests only by hiring a private army
Richard, Bucharest,
Is it my imagination or has Russia not really been invaded by over 40 different countries since the early 1800s? You completely miss this factor in their national psychology when assessing their response to events. And Putin has proven that the West will not stand up to anyone with a big enough gun.
KR, Stockport,
Putin is the greatest ever leader in the history of Russia. Russia was a choatic nation riddled with mobsters and covered with parasites sucking the resouces out of the mother land. Putin put an end to that and restored order and pride. A stable Russia is good for the world.
james, edinburgh,
Europeans know better what being 'closest' friends means for the american administration.
"The war will reduce rather than increase Russia's stature abroad, where the Kremlin faces growing isolation."
Certainly not in Germany.
Markus, Cologne, Germany
When Georgia joined the Coalition of the Billing to participate in the occupation of Iraq, it forfeited its right to protest against invasion. Many Americans (of which I am one) are tired of being asked to pay to fight the battles of Curveballs like Saakashvili and Tony Blair.
Roger, Oslo,
Almost 70 years ago Britain's greatest statesman made his famous remark "I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."
Russian national interest will not change.
Bill, Sydney, Australia
I'm sorry? What did Georgia expect, with a small army of its own having chosen US as its ally over neighboring Russia and attacking the civilians next door? Russia DEFENDS the region, even this bias article calls it "COUNTER-attack" before the author plunges into blunt insults for 14 paragraphs!
Necrik, Sydney, Australia
Once again events are hijacked by anti-Americans as more proof of everything bad in the world being the fault of the US & the West. So boring and not true. Georgia may have been reckless but Russia is using it to tighten its grip on Europe - which is a scary prospect. Russia isn't a friend of us.
Sam, London,
It is sad to contemplate the bias of the western media, most of all the tax funded British B?ropaganda Corporation. Granted we always like to side with the little guy, but if you tweak the lion's tail too often you should expect a great awakening.
John Ledbury, Kings Lynn, England
US - how many thousands of civillians died in iraq now?
Russia - too bullish and arrogant to see how the world would respond to its ignorance of Sarsosky's mediation
each has its own problems and leaders causing/failing to fix them, too busy catering to their international ego's, paid for in blood
rob, london, uk
There are double standards with regards to what the US does and then tells others to do. Having said that, that doesn't make any country - that behaves the same - noble or in the right.
People on each side listen to the others' perspective. There's truth and wisdom that can help end this violence.
Sean, New York, USA
The opinion of Russia in China ,India & the Arab World has not changed, so Russia would not care what the Western countries who cannot even defend militarily their ally Georgia think?
Also let us be objective while the Russian bear is treacherous so too are western countries
suresh, Chennai, India
usa have always had the largest aircraft carrier,
its called the UK,
who will bleat but do little as we are in russias pocket when it comes to energy supply,
open up your old chimneys and get some coal in,it could be a cold dark winter this year.:^(. my heart goes out to all civilians in this war
mick, essex, UK
Ront, did you see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCjq_z9D6bk ?
Georgians use BM-21 "Grad" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K51_Grad ) in Tshinvaly at the nisght.
Did you want to be in that town?
Nikolay, Moscow, Russia
If a South Ossetian went to Moscow he's probably be beaten up by nationalist skinheads, passport or no passport.
Joe Steel, Baku,
Mr Beeston is still in the same old cold war mind set, what ever Russia dose is wrong w, but what west dose is right. The time has come and gone for the silly minded westerners who think that they are the masters of the world. The Georgian incident has clearly shows that Russia is no longer looking
Madhu V, Chennai, India
Russian humanitarian mission to help South-Osetia?
Tell about these humanitarian efforts to widows and childless mothers in Chechenya.
Michal, London,
Russia is a big, angry and ugly. And no, Bob, the greatest threat to Russia is neither the US nor the UK. It is China.
Simon , Birmingham,
Bob, Bradford. The West, in the form of Germany, attacked once. That's it. How many times has Russia attacked other countries, in the East and the West in the past century?
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
Michael Brietenhagen, but the Russian Army vastly outnumbered the Georgian Army both in numbers and equipment. It doesn't matter how good you are, if the other bloke is bigger, much bigger, you'll probably lose.
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
macho brinkmanship rearing its ugly head. Putin is showing a pathological unwillingness to relinquish power, both personally
and nationally. a dangerous situation made more dangerous by a lack of strong western/eu response.
wilfred griffin, dundee, scotland
well, I have to say the one-sided reporting in UK is just unbelievable!
During the Jeltzin time, the West/US could do with Russia whatever they wanted. That is now over and a big problem. Especially the US.
And UK is just following blind the US anyway...
nanarubia, london,
Is it a coincidence or a convenient lapse the fact that most of the western media seem to have droped a key piece of information? The georgians started this mess with military action in South Ossetia. By the way. The fact that more than 90% ossetis wish to be Russian should have some importance.
Júlio Carvalho, Lisbon, Portugal
To Natalia from Germany
I trust you are already there, having delivered pens, shoes and choclates to those in need? To put it your terms, you, as a Russian, have many more reasons to be there unlike British. Otherwise it is a banal hypocrisy. Something you could learn from Putin perhaps?
Alex, Saint-Petersburg, Russia
i disagree with the assessment of a reduction in russian stature abroad. right now gordon brown is pursuing the bush party line which is trying to leverage the loss of an alleged ally in the Georgian president into a PR win against russia. In truth russia won against georgian aggression.
smith, vilnius,
This is about Russian expansionism and their desire to revive the Soviet Union. It's Good vs/ Evil, freedom vs/ tyranny. America has NOT lost the moral high ground, as no other country in history has done so much to help so many. Europe should be the most appreciative, but they have no memory.
Kevin, Cincinnati, USA
"Strutting Russia is heading for a fall'
Richard Beeston
Little-Islanders are envious of Supercontinentals.
Russia Rules!
Britannia doesn't anymore!
Choose your weapon, sorry, your game, and Russia will beat you black and blue. Football perhaps?
Rajiv Ranjan Rawat, Moscow, Russia.
"Should energy prices fall sharply, the economy could collapse, as it did a decade ago"
That "should" is the key to interpreting this article.... Putin can sleep soundly...
Hayden Greenwood, Damascus,
So the commentary implies that an army of inexperienced Russian conscripts equipped with outdated weaponry has routed an equally or better equipped, US-trained, "combat experienced" army of Georgian professionals? Not so bad from a Russian point of view, isn't it?
Michael Brietenhagen, Leipzig,
It's the logistics, stupid.
Kosovo is on NATO's doorstep, so NATO could do as it wished, and Russia had a choice between impotent squawking or launching World War III. Sensibly, she chose to squawk.
Georgia, is on Russia's doorstep, so it's NATO who has that choice. They too chose sensibly.
Mike Stone, Peterborough, UK
"where the Kremlin faces growing isolation".
What you really mean is that the US has launched today a major propaganda operation, with UK participation, & a few of the "Coalition of the Billing". The world? Certainly not.
Alex, Paris, France
Nobody has made the following points:
1. Ruskis handed out passports to the SO population so that they (Ruskis) could claim SO's were citizens.
2. This was an air sea and land attack. These type of attacks aren't executed without months, maybe years, of planning.
Conclusion: This was planned
Aaron, Chicago,
Does Mr Beeston know how many times the 'West has attacked Russia in the last century? The biggest threat to Russia is the US/UK! But of course they are busy fighting somewhere else for the time being.
Bob
Bob, Bradford, England
Main games of Russian and Gergian Top are driven by narrow interests or instincts.But look, Saakashvili has shown that with US and EU approval he has been realizing geogian century dream to kill Ossetes. Russia - justice. That is a main character of current Russian top needed for understanding
Sergey Rukhtin, Krasnodar, Russia
"1,600 Civilian Osetins ARE killed by Georgia"
Ivan Kazennov, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia
Ivan, are you sure Georgia killed those people? I am not, I think an independent investigation is needed to sort out the killers, georgians or russians.
Ront, Tallinn,
Many commentators here seem to think that when Americans do something evil it is wrong, but when Russians do something evil it is OK because Americans do that too. If that is not hypocrisy and double standards, then nothing is!
Esa Leskinen, Hämeenlinna, Finland
Old russian military equipment... ha ha... Don`t forget 50 years old missile system shot down state-of-art stealth bomber F117 over Serbia when 50:1 ratio was in favor of NATO?? After all russian T-34 walked in Berlin rather then high-tech german Panther in Moscow.
Goo, Belgrade, Serbia
Paul, London:
Try learning Russian and read Russian media, then you will see where that paranoia is prevalent.
Helen, Manchester, UK
"Meanwhile America, and its main Nato allies, are decades ahead in military technology and combat experience." Well, that's certainly one advantage of starting open wars of dubious legality against small countries with half-baked armies! Maybe Russia is learning more lessons than we think....
Neil, Galloway, Scotland
From this pointt Russia should wait until all civilian Osetins are murdured by trained by US Geogian brave soldiers.
And only when they are all dead should go to UN and talk about it.
Wherever talks finish with they dont make dead people alive.
1,600 Civilian Osetins ARE killed by Georgia
Ivan Kazennov, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia
Everybody and all in the United Kingdom!
Where are you?
Why nobody hears about your help to South-Osetia?
Help children of South -Osetia!
They have lost houses, parents, brothers and sisters!
Send them clothes, schoolbooks, shoes pensils and pens, chokolates and medicine.
Natalia, Koblenz, Germany
Germany & Russia are now business partners building the Nordstream Gas Pipeline from Russia to Germany. Germany will therefore seek to avoid any criticism. They worked together just before WW2 and they work hand in hand now; even though this may seem a bit too exaggerated it is not far from truth.
Karel Svoboda, Praha, Czech Republic
Condi Rice is a Russophile, you say?? Pull the other one, it's got bells on.
Condi Rice is a russophobic Cold Warrior who, for instance, gave Bush and Cheney everything they wanted as the disasterous Iraq war was brewing.
As for the rest, the Bear has taught the West where the Red Line is.
RKKA, Fairfax,
The Russians are no worse than us - after what has happened in Iraq and Afghanistan we have lost the moral high ground - besides when Israel carried out a similar action with even less provocation the USA (and Britain for that matter) were quite happy for its ally to bomb the hell out of Lebanon.
Dan, Winchester, England
Those that grew up under the shadow of an East/West nuclear conflict rejoiced when the cold war ended. Nearly twenty years on, the paranoia of that age is still prevalent in the Kremlin.
Have they learned nothing?
Paul, London,
The first part of the article is funny, the seond is silly. It is obvious and simple that Russians protected Russian citizens living abroad, prevented Georgia agression, whicl killed ~1500 people, and they even had a UN mandate to do that.
Roman B., Seoul, South Korea
Richard Beeston is a little optimistic in his belief that the West has significant advantages over Russia in technology and recent military experience. Russia is very rich in minerals other than oil and it's military, although old and tired is at least standardised and integrated - unlike NATO.
Ali D, St Helier, JERSEY
Yes, Russian weapons are a decade behind US and her West Allies. But US and her Allies is tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan (and possibly Iran in the near future).
They simply don't have enough resource (man, machine, money) to fight Russia.
Firman, Jakarta, Indonesia
Mini-war!!!??? I am Osetian. 1 600 my brothers and sisters murdered by Georgian army during the bombing the civilian city on the day of Olimpic openings!!! And only then Russian army came and saved the whoie nation of Georgian genocide!!! You do not know, Sir, what you are talking about!!!
Dmitry, St. Ptersburg, Russian Federation
I have always thought that it was unwise and unduly provocative to expand NATO eastwards particularly when Russia was so weakened. Now the tables have turned somewhat. Would it not be better to include Russia in a treaty organization to counter any possible threat from China and the Islamic world.
Paul, York UK,
Excellent analysis, at least someone with vision in the International media world!
Fady Asly, Tblisi, Georgia
It was easy to avoid all this trouble. Bush could just call his friend Saakashvily at 7-8.8, when Saakashvily had stated his attack on Tshinvaly, and ask him to stop before Russia would be involved. But he decided not to call.
One telephone call could save a lot of human lives - but it wasn't done
Sergey, Moscow, Russia
old saying, east/west divides at river Dnieper=Kiev. Russia plans 5 new aircraft carriers for Black Sea?Polar regions?Maybe Rus will reduce Ukraine to old Polish/lLithuanian empire borders, gas/oil prospects Black sea. West /Ukraine/Nato must decide while is time or Rus gets even closer to EU
J Jarvis, Alton,
For all of Europe's anti-american retric, they are even more greedy then the USA. The Germans bypass the east. Now Leaving Georgia to the wolves, for Russian oil. Somethings in Europe never change. Americans let down Georgia, but they are not European.
Nick Knight, Laytown, Ireland
"Russia is also facing a severe demographic crisis."
Not as severe as the U.S. demographic crisis, pursuing legal and illegal mass immigration policies that will someday turn America into a densely populated Third World anthill--all the while imagining that we can conserve energy and save nature.
Tom Andres, Sonora, CA, USA
People of the World!
everybody is tired from the wars!
let's live in peace!
let's know each other better!
if you want to have a kind little Russian bear among your friends, please let me know!
uliana, Moscow, Russia
Mr Beeston is right to some point,
Our weapons are indeed old. Its a legacy of Gorbachev era. At that time we thought the Cold war was over, there are friends around and we don't need any more weapons. That all proved to be wrong.
I think its not too late to relaunch weapons programs.
Ivan, Moscow, Russia
This is ALL about oil. Putin & his pals in Iran are doing everything they can to keep oil over $140 a barrel. Putin will go after the Caspian pipeline in Georgia next. The Putin apologists fail to mention how he stole tens of billions from Western oil companies engaging in joint ventures in Russia
Franc, Gulfstream, USA/Florida
In the USA we have a double standard on sneak attacks. In 1942 Japan attacked a U.S. military target (Pearl Harbor) that ended with atomic bombs on citizens living in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That sneak attack (on us) was definitely "not O.K". When it happens to others its another story.
John, Vancouver, USA
Russia seemed to have no good reason to attack Georgia. They claim they don't want a NATO country on their border, but if they annex Georgia they will have a NATO ally on their border and a very strong one- Turkey. Maybe they did this just to take China off the center of the world stage?
Mike, Connecticut, USA
Do we hear the echoe of Hitler"s famous words on the Soviet Union, "We have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will collapse...". It never pays to underestimate Russia.
Piggy Kruger, Bridgwater, UK
If Russia was no longer regarded as a threat why did our leaders decide to encircle it with a military alliance? To stop it becoming a threat perhaps. But acting on our fears so often makes those fears realised. Psychology 101.
martyn, calvia, spain
Instead of deep analysis of situation, Mr Beeston tells us fairy tales about economical situation in Russia and weakness of its army. Western people, there is no way back to the Soviet Union, don't you understand? We have many problems, but this time we had to constrain our promises
Artyom, Moscow, Russia
Georgia is not "next door" to Russia but next door to its empire. Is Dagestan, Chechnya and North Ossetia really Russia or just full of Russian colonists?
The Soviet Union collapsed when the price of crude oil last fell. The new Russian Empire has risen along with the price of crude.
Joe Steel, Baku,
Although Georgia has paid a heavy price, Russia has shown the west it's hand, and for that we should be grateful. Western politicians should wake up, this is what happens when we accept mass migration. Colonies for the 21st century?
Steve , Arbroath, Scotland
After 15 years of weakness, Russia is acting as a
Great Power again. Such powers don't let themselves become encircled (by NATO), welcome hostile governments (Georgia) next door, or let their every concern be ignored (Serbia, missles in Poland). Nor would the US, for any supposed "respect."
Walter, East Hampton, USA
Russia protected its own interest. They might of went a little too far though. When the United States protects its own its ok but when any other country does it condemns it. How many people has the United States killed in the Iraq war directly or indirectly. Estimates are around 95,000 people.
Juan Vera, Philadelphia, USA
I Only hope Mr Beeston is correct in his claim that Russia's military machine is cold war era and out of date compared to the "west". Russia is a nation that can never change, Putin is as despotic as the communist leaders of the recent past and possibly worse than the tsar's that preceeded them!
Alex Hayesmore, London,
Look at the bigger picture. Explore the 1000 odd Israeli advisors in Georgia and the US advisors in Georgia. Explore the oil connection. Sound familiar?
Liam Jones, Adelaide, Australia
It was a mistake to recognise the independence of Kosovo, thereby denying the sovereignty of the Serbian nation over its territory. It was a mistake to allow Georgia to think that it could be a part of NATO, as if we would ever go to war with Russia to defend Georgia. We lose, the Bear smirks.
Louis, Creston, NC, USA
This has more to do with flexing the economic weight and less about flexing military weight. But for Russia to attack its tiny neighbor without much of Europe protesting means only that Europe already fears its increasing control over gas and oil resource. Remember Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania 1940
Pat Smith, London, England
Unfortunately for you the population of South Ossetia is not ethnic Russian.
also Unfortunately for you the population of South Ossetia is not ethnic geogrians.
pasha, Kiev, Ukraine
How come no one said anything when Israel obliterated a whole country (Lebanon) after Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers. Russia was right to defend Ossetia, and they could have done much more damage had they wanted to.
JC, Calgary, Canada
The EU better wake up. This is a clearly a power play to control the oil & gas supplies for Europe and to intimidate western oriented former members of the USSR since their ideas (freedom, democracy) threaten Russia's autocracy. Either act or prepare to appease.
Daniel Westerbeck, Linville, NC, USA
I agree that Putin is likely heading for a nasty shock but for different reasons. I believe the rampant uncontrolled corruption will be the downfall of such a now blatantly lawless country.
Terror will only hold the population in place until some even greedier gent wants the largest slice.
Ken.H, Kenton, UK
Bogdan @ Liviu . Please dont use the same type of personal attack as in the Romanian press! You are a Canadian now. Keep it for you attributes like "brainwashed by his keepers". Let's see your commentary after Russia apply the same "solution" to the Moldova - Tiraspol conflict killing Romanians.
Bogdan, Toronto,
Ruski not be so strong if we comparing stuffing up in Hafganistan!!
Ruski only talking big now only because of oil price. They doing everthings in middle east to keeping oil price high so they are profit. Without oil they are only vodka peddlers. That is if they dont drink it all before selling.
Petrovich, Vancouver,
I have been following the whole affair from the US and I must say that I agree with Liviu from Victoria BC, Canada in that the author of this piece just doesn't get it. This historical event will strengthen Russia not the other way around. Most American analysts agree with my assessment.
Fernando, Silicon Valley, CA, USA
The author of this piece is clearly brainwashed by his keepers. Everybody wants to hate on Russians. They were in the right to go in and protect their citizens. Bush wants the use of force to end while he is massing his navy fleet in the golf in anticipation of an attack on Iran.
Double standards.
Liviu, Victoria BC, Canada
Russia has always been obsessed with her national security, and this is ever apparent when she starts throwing her weight around. Undoubtedly Russia has become rich over it's control of gas and oil, and will get richer, however these resources will decline as will Russia's leaverage over Europe.
Steve Miller, Huddersfield,
Mary, Suwanee, US: "In a straight fight, the US would obliterate..." I doubt it. And that's not US style - rather they specialize in "overwhelming force" against the weak. Like nonstop bombing Serbia, which had virtually no air force or modern anti-aircraft defense, from above 5000 feet for 78 days.
Tomas Kuhn, Budapest, Hungary
Well, depopulation even higher in Poland, Ukraine, Blatic Republics and Georgia. Russia has advantage many people from former soviet republics want to live there.
Russia will raise again, no doubt.
john, nyc, usa
Simon Jennings in the Guardian is right. Liberal interventionism has undermined respect for national borders and encouraged "small-statism", which allows - even justifies - aggression by (in neo-con terms) both "good and evil." The west needs a more sophisticated approach than "we good, they bad".
C. Hall, Hong Kong, China
@Avery
Yup. It's like the author pretends like the U.K actually figures into Russian strategic thinking . Its more the US and its Colony called Great Britain along with the E.U to them. Just look at what kind of soft power France and Germany have been able to wield globally since the Iraqi Quagmire
Dave Englar, LaGrange, USA
There's no pretense for a war in the Baltic Sea region. The last time Russia conquered Estonia, it was after it stole a sixth of Finland and was preparing for war with Germany.
So unless you foresee a war between Moscow and Helsinki or Berlin, I wouldn't count on them worrying much about Tallinn.
Giustino, Tartu, Estland
News that Transdniester has has broken off talks with Moldova over Georgia is proof Putin is totally victorious. The separatist splinters have been driven harder into the sides of the ex-Soviet republics, bring them closer to failed state status. The colored revolutions are being rolled back.
Brian Dell, a Canadian in Stockholm, Sweden
The USA and Breat Britain have lost the moral ground a long time ago (2003 Iraq threat fabrication, Kosovo etc.). Please Richard Beeston spare us your act of superiority and just admit that Georgia made a big mistake (cock-up) by using first artillery and rockets against civilians.
Michael, Armidale, Australia
they want to control as much oil and Natrual Gas going to the EU as possible. ! Indeed, i agree. NATO and the EU need to take action on this asap.
Robn, Breda, The Nethelands
What will really break Russia isn't the war but the BP issue - if companies can't trust the Russians and if the state just revokes visas as a way of taking over a company, no major company will work with them, and then the economy will start to go down.
Mark Jones, Cardiff , Wales
"What do we expect, if the Georgian government attempts to incorporate two provinces which prefer to remain closely tied to Russia (due to the the predominace of Russians living in them),
Unfortunately for you the population of South Ossetia is not ethnic Russian.
Peter, Manchester, England
Hopefully Europe will "see the light" and support Georgia and the rest of the CIS. They have allowed themselves to become dependent on the Russians for NG. If Putin gains control of the export pipeline passing through Georgia then Europe will be in a bind.
Ruple Ranger, Sugar Land, USA
In a straight fight the US would obliterate Russia-the problem is both US and Russia have HUGE nuclear arsenals, etc. I can't serioulsy believe any sane Russians or Americans want war with each other-it would be nuclear, any attempt at land forces would trigger nukes,etc being launched immediately.
Mary, Suwanee, US
Britain, not Russia, is weak and vulnerable. We have sold or surrendered all our strategic industries to foreigners, we have created an illusion of prosperity by borrowing massively, and we have squandered any pretensions at moral leadership by participating in illegal wars.
Paul Amery, London,
The author is completely right. Russia is weak and those who say otherwise are fools. If the Georgians had organised themselves like the Chechins they shoe would most definitely be on the other foot. In a straight fight they would be obliterated by the US.
Ed, London,
Did US ever get the Security Counsil resolution for the attack on Iraq?
Did you know that Russia still supplying armo to Afganistan to fight taliban?
Who is number 1 today to critisize Russia? What about Iranian thread and US radar and missiles in Europe?
At least Russia is honest.
Val, Sydney, Australia
I can't imagine a President Obama standing up to Putin. They're in different leagues.
Rob, NY, USA
What seems to get consistently overlooked is that Georgia used artillery and rockets against civilians FIRST. Russia was right to respond with force. If US rather than Russian citizens had been attacked in such a way, Tiblisi would be in rubble now.
Luis, London,
A good analysis of the situtation. Shame about most of the comments.
Peter, Newcastle,
What do we expect, if the Georgian government attempts to incorporate two provinces which prefer to remain closely tied to Russia (due to the the predominace of Russians living in them), and the Russian government objects? With American missiles projected for the Czech Republic and Poland threatenin
Dr. Donald F. Megnin, New Smyrna Beach, USA
Why doesn´t America mind its own business. The US administration has no credility with its words of wisdom. The Russians on the other hand should spend much more of their finances and technical skills on having a war on pollution. Starting by cleaning up the bomb shrapnel and any war pollution.
JIm Wills, Brisbane, Australia
Yes, and the same thing was said about the Soviet invasion of Finland in 1939! Every country is interested in "its front yard"! Georgia wishes to ally itself with NATO and the EU, but it doesn't have the means to protect itself, let alone try in incorporate to straying provinces who prefer Russians
Donald F. Megnin, Ph.D., New Smyrna Beach, USA
It seems that Richard Beeston has something in common with Mikheil Saakashvili. The ability to underestimate Russia.
Derek, Taunton, UK
Richard,
Don't you think you're providing the English too much comfort? Energy prices won't fall sharply. What leaders of small countries do matters little. Look to the big states.
The Russian kit may not be the shiniest, but Russia has plenty of nuclear-armed missiles. And demographics change.
Nanne Zwagerman, Berlin, Germany
Excellent analysis.
If Mr Putin likes playing the big fish in a shrinking pond then let us all enjoy the show and make fun of him. We cannot, unfortunately, stop his appetite for innocent victims.
Eventually Russian citizens will join in and he'll become a footnote in history.
fred keeling, almunecar, spain
Yeah right, weak and vulnerable with a colossal nuclear arsenal.
David, Worthing, UK
Now why would the US have such close friends on Russia's doorstep (Georgia, Estonia, Latvia) except to create mischief? But Russian bombers refueling in Cuba was declared "crossing the line" by the US. So only the US can have "friends." Such arrogance will backfire sooner or later.
T. Y. Chaillot, Paris, France
With due respect to the author, may I suggest that this is wishful thinking masquerading as analytical journalism.
Ranjan S, Gujarat, India
Putin and his followers want to return as much as possible to the old USSR. They want to control all oil going thru Georgia to the west. They want to control as much oil and Natrual Gas going to the EU as possible. This way they can blackmail the EU with threats to turn off the spiggots.
Sandra , Santa Barbara, CA, USA