Chris Dillow
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Wasn't it a great Olympics for Team GB, as I suppose we must call them? Fourth in the medals table - beating the Australians - is a fantastic achievement, isn't it?
No. There is another league table, published recently by the World Bank, which ranks countries by national income. And this bears a striking resemblance to the medals table. Nine of the top ten countries in the medals table are in the top 15 of the World Bank table; the exception is the Ukraine. Across all 87 countries to have won a medal, the correlation between the medals ranking and the GDP ranking is 0.41 - far higher than you would reasonably expect by accident.
In this respect, the Beijing Olympics were not unusual. In a recent paper Hon-Kwong Lui and Wing Suen, two Chinese economists, showed that population and national income per person were “major determinants” of medals won in Olympics between 1952 and 2004.
The reason for this is trivially simple. The more people a country has, the more chance it has of producing a medallist. And the richer it is, the more able it is to invest in talent-spotting or in training facilities, and the more chance it has of its sports becoming Olympic events; as Matthew Syed pointed out in these pages, sailing gets lots of medals but kabaddi doesn't.
Big economies should therefore get more medals than small ones. And they do.
This suggests a different way of judging Olympic success. We should compare a nation's position in the medals table to its position in the GDP table.
On this basis, Britain's performance was no better than respectable. Our fourth place in the medals table is just one place better than our position in the national income table. The notable fact about British Olympians is their underperformance in previous Games rather than huge outperformance in these.
By this measure, I'm sad to report, the Aussies did better than us. Their sixth position in the medals table is nine places better than their national income ranking. We can, though, take comfort in the fact that Germany - fifth in the medals table - underperformed relative to its economy.
So, who are the winners and losers by this standard? The winner is the Dominican Republic. Its one gold and one silver put it 47th in the medals table, while its puny economy is only the 179th in the world. Mongolia, Zimbabwe and Jamaica also did well.
The loser is Taiwan. It has the 17th biggest economy in the world, but came a mere 79th in the medals table.
There is a pattern here. The countries that punched above their economic weight in these games - which include North Korea, Cuba and Uzbekistan - are in many cases nations not renowned for their peace, political stability or respect for human rights; Jamaica is no place to be if you are a homosexual. Many of the losers have a better record.
This vindicates Harry Lime's theory. As he said in The Third Man, warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed gave us Michelangelo, da Vinci and the Renaissance while 500 years of democracy and peace in Switzerland (35th in the medals table and 22nd in the GDP table) produced only the cuckoo clock. (Even this was wrong; the cuckoo clock was invented in Germany.)
Excellence in the Olympics, then, is no sign of a wider flourishing of a nation. Gordon Brown might care to consider this before celebrating the British results.
There is an even stronger pattern. The 2008 medals ranking is similar to the 2004 ranking. The correlation between the two is a hefty 0.8. The ranking in the Athens games alone explains, in the statistical sense, three-fifths of the variation in the Beijing rankings. Of the countries to have “medalled” most - including team GB - moved fewer than ten places in the rankings between 2004 and 2008.
In other words, history matters. A nation with a culture of winning medals tends to continue doing so; nations with no such culture find it much harder.
There is a lesson here for anyone running any large organisation. Big groups - nations, firms, government departments - have history, traditions and culture that heavily influence their chances of success or failure. These cannot easily be overridden by the mere will of a leader.
You have probably got an objection to all this. When Chris Hoy sat on his bike on the starting line, he did not look at his rivals and think: “I come from a richer nation than most of those guys; this'll be a cinch.” Instead, he focused upon giving all he could.
And this is the point. From the point of view of the individual competitor, Olympic success is about skill, training and dedication - and, arguably, perhaps even natural talent. But from the point of view of the nation, success depends upon history and economics.
In other words, overall outcomes are not necessarily merely the result of individual motivations added together. Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please.
Chris Dillow is an economics writer at the Investors Chronicle and blogs at stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com
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Carolina Ruiz, que dices?? Dominican did the best, we have this at our pride!, i hope next time we do much better, i love my country so much.
Victor, Bonao. M.N, Dominican Republic
Give us more resources, and I will promise you that we wil beat any one.
Chris NY
Chris Figueroa, New York, USA
This article is real. A country's medals are those winned by it's representatives, but you've got to take into account how did that country got there. What's the budget from the government for the sports, and what's the budget of the athlete (sponsorhips). Even with that, DR won the games.
Maxwell Brown, Glasgow, U.K.
There is a mistake in this article. The author confused Dominican Republic, ranked in place 79th in GDP table, with the island of Dominica, ranked as 179th. Jamaica, 124th in GDP table and 13th in the medals table, did a much better job.
Carolina Ruiz, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
I am very proud of the two olympic medals obtained in Beijing by our humble Dominican atheles. Our country if full of joy because of this. My congratulations to all competitors for their friendly participation and to China for being a fabulous host.
Rosamna Reynoso, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Visit this link and you'll see the humble "mansion" where the dominican gold medalist resides!!! and his family.
(picture taken before his last performance)
http://espndeportes.espn.go.com/news/story?id=716762&s=box&t
I strongly agree with your article!
Horacio Perdomo, Miami, US
Be fair, it takes a while for government policy to filter through and have an effect, we are only just starting to feel the effect of ten years of Labour on the UK's GDP. We still have a chance to outstrip Dominican Republic in four years time.
Will Rees, Reading,
Charles from SD : "Athletes depend on their own money"?
What?
You think Nike doesn't pay to have the swoosh all over our athletes? Do the athletes own the facilities they train in? What about all the trainers & everything else?
so poor NBA basketballers rent their own gym and shoes?
Abe, Santo Domingo, Republica Dominicana
Argument is fundamentally flawed since it does not recognize that a very large number of athletes train in one country and compete in the Olympics for another.
Just look at the large number of swimmers from outside the US who train (and went to universities on free Scholarships) in the US
james Culhane, Boston, USA
Using the SAME yardstick, What will be the situation for Cuba?
Cuba won a total of 24 medals:
2 G , 11 S , 11 B = 24 medals!
Lora, Portland, USA
Everybody knows that you need many resources to train a medallist and small countries dont count with them.
The athletes of Dominican Republic as first priority have to solve a lot of problems in a daily basis, before they start the training program.
Victor Justo, Santo Domingo, Dominican Rep
Considering I'm Dominican and knowing how our athletes work without almost no help from our government, just out of sheer dedication, against all odds, I'd say these are not meaningless statistics. And I agree, the Dominican Republic outperformed you all. ;-)
Celia, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Taiwan is not a loser. Chinese Taipei is.
CT, Austin, TX,
Meaningless statistics. Nations ought to be judged according to genetics-come on smart ones! For example, we don't expect pygmies to excel in basketball-that is not their game &, mutatis mutandis, Chinese to excel in football, Brits in gymnastics (heavy bones), Blacks in swimming (weak Achilles heel
ian cheese, london, uk
To all those claiming the USA is losing its grip on Olympic domination I have only one thing to ask: Does your country have a Ministry of Sports with a large government budget? The USA does not. Athletes depend on their own money, or donations and sponsorships. Put that into the equations next time
Charles, San Diego, USA
As usual, an economics writer/economist comparing apples and oranges using statistics.
Olympics medal total for a nation is the sum total of individual competitors.
If a superb one competes from Jamaica, then all deductions go down the drain as we notice in economies of US and more nations!
Krishna R. Kumar, Udupi, India
To Tim Worstall:
So do you want your slaves back or are you just happy taking the medals that belong to the Empire?
What an awful idea was that?
By the way, are we talking about national income or income per capita? Big difference!
These medal tables remain annoying and useless, still.
Andras Szucs, Southampton,
Peter, I think you missed the point, the author is questioning the fact that are we better than Australlia, hence the question mark. In fact he concludes that no we are not. Australia, our long time competative ally conistently over achieves and that is to be applauded and respected, well done.
Gareth Jenkins, Pwllheli, Wales
If we are going to re-examine how we judge a country's olympic performance, let us look at where many of the olympians from poor countries train and practice. Mostly in the USA or Europe.
Matt, Houston, USA
Bronze is the same as gold.
If you do not believe me, ask any blind person here.
It is harder to LET two others to win.
NBC should interview bronze winners only as they are the real winners.
Phelps, we love you more with 8 bronze medals - it is no easy job to let 2 and ONLY 2 EIGHT times.
tonypow, birlinton, ma usa
Surely it should be Team UK? Northern Ireland is neither part of Great Britain nor of the Republic of Ireland... I did hear mention of members of both the GB and ROI teams having either been born in or coming from Northern Ireland.
Rick, Belfast,
Tsk Chris, Tsk.
Everyone knows that the British Empire won the most medals at these games: as it has won over 30% of all medals ever awarded....
Tim Worstall, Messines,
I'm sorry to say this, but nr 179 on the World Bank list is Dominica, not the much bigger Dominican republic which is nr 73. The approach is relevant, and the other examples are, as far as I can see, OK.
Juha Kajander, Helsinki, Finland
Typical. The Olympics are over only a few hours and already you lot are looking for ways to diminish the athletes' accomplishments.
If squeezing spots on a purulent behind ever becomes an Olympic event then you can put your years of training to better use.
Scot Richards, Brisbane,
We Chinese take too much attention on the winning of the games.51 golden medals in 2008y to 32 golden medals in 2004y seems that we get 16 more medals is because we're host of the Game ,more or less ,at least .
Asia Xin, xuzhou, China
India is big economy and second largest population after China, but still managed to win only 2 medals.
Srinivath Aekboke, London, UK
Five nil five nil five nil five nil five nil five nil
Now, what were you saying?
Matt Starczak, Aberfoyle Park, South Australia
Peter from Australia, you say that the UK comparing itself against Australia is pathetic but that you're the best country in the world. Those statements can't both be correct - take your pick.
Harry, London,
Congratulations to Australia. With a population of only twenty million the medals count was excellent. Great Britain has a population of sixty million and thinks they did so well. No I do not think so. The Olympic games have turned away from the intended purpose, friendly competition..
LX Norris, Adelaide, Australia
Given the population the performance of Australia and Spain over a number of sports is amazing
GMNorm, Wiltshire, UK
Most people in the US are not interested in the Olympics. they are more interested in football, baseball and basketball. I do not think football is an Olympic sport, but even in baseball and basketball most American athletes choose to stay away from the Olympics. No one can stay on top all the time.
Ted Baines, New York, USA
Another starking fact is the fall out of USA from top notch to second in medals tally. Is it the tilt of the wind mills, with economic slow down and recession on wall street affecting the US sports , or is it mere global warming which is making the heat of competition too hot and unbearable..ponder?
sanjeev dheer, New Delhi, India
Why do you always refer to us, as if we were someone you just have to beat. I call that as pathetic. We are a small country
on the world scene, but because of a flow of migrants who have contributed much to our appreciation of life, we have develloped into the best country in the world. .
Peter Barrett, Melbourne, Australia