Peter Millar
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The most frightening sight in recent weeks has not been the media’s metamorphosis of Russia from genial, if rather uncouth, bear into snarling wolf, but the knee-jerking of British politicians.
In Kiev and Tbilisi, David Miliband, the foreign secretary, and David Cameron, the Tory leader, displayed their lack of historical perspective, posturing on politico-economic faultlines of which they appear to have barely schoolboy understanding. Russia is a huge country not as far away as we would like, about which our politicians know far too little. That is most acute when it comes to the “near abroad”, the former Soviet republics to which George W Bush – and now Miliband and Cameron – would like to extend the Nato membership that the West refused Russia.
It has been said that Russia fears a new encirclement. It does, but it is more than that: for Nato forces to enter Ukraine would for most Russians be tantamount to invasion. For Cameron to equate Estonia and Ukraine, as he did last week, is stupidity.
Estonia’s history, language and culture are markedly separate. Forced into the Soviet Union in the second world war, it has also over the centuries been part of Sweden, and ruled by the Teutonic knights. Its language is related to Finnish.
Ukraine is another matter. Its name comes from Old Slavonicu kraju, meaning “on the edge” – in other words, borderlands.
We stopped saying “the Ukraine” to make it sound more like any other country. To Russians it doesn’t. “The” Ukraine had no independent existence before 1991. Like most borderlands it has been almost continuously fought over, since the early Slav kingdom of Kievan Rus fell to Mongol invaders.
Parts of it belonged for centuries to the vast Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth, then much of the west to the Austro-Hungarian empire.
Today, those are the most westward-looking regions, where the language mostly spoken is Ukrainian rather than Russian and the religion is Uniate Catholicism rather than Russian Orthodox.
Kiev, however, remains an anchor in Russo-Slav identity. Far older than Moscow, Kievan Rus gave us the word “Russia”; a statue of its first ruler, Rurik, dominates Moscow’s Pushkin Square. Kiev has totemic status, as Winchester or Runnymede does for England. Of all the losses suffered since the fall of the Soviet Union, those of Ukraine and Belarus have been hardest for Russians to suffer.
Fifty per cent of Ukraine’s population speaks Russian (compared with the 17% who are ethnically Russian). Many Russians – including the late Alexander Solzhenitsyn – see Ukrainian as little more than a dialect, no different from Geordie’s relationship to southern English. Stalin, the Georgian who became Russia’s greatest imperialist, gave the Ukrainians extra territory in 1945 because he considered them inseparable from Russia. He vetoed seats in the United Nations for Canada and Australia unless Russia’s “dominions” got them too. And they did. Never in his wildest dreams did he expect them to vote their own way, let alone achieve independence.
Georgia in Moscow’s eyes is merely a testing ground – from which it emerged victorious. If Ukraine is invited into Nato, the risk is not just a crisis over the Black Sea port of Sebastopol, leased until 2017 to the Russian navy, but also a Russian annexation of the whole Crimean peninsula. That is no more improbable than it would be difficult. Access from Ukraine proper is by a narrow causeway over marshland that could be taken by one battalion of paratroops. Meanwhile, the city of Kerch in the east is less than three miles across water from Russian soil.
Russian annexation would be locally popular. Crimea was not part of Ukraine before 1945. Ninety per cent of its population speaks Russian. Its historic population – the Tatars – were exiled by Stalin and replaced by Russians.
That would invite a Ukrainian civil war, almost certainly bringing in the pro-Moscow breakaway region of Transdnistria in neighbouring Moldova.
This is a minefield over which Miliband and Cameron are trampling without a map. John McCain may see “KGB” written in Vladimir Putin’s eyes but that doesn’t mean what it used to. Russia may be a corrupt pseudo-democracy but it is not communist.
This is a turf war. Russia no longer challenges America for global hegemony but that doesn’t mean it’s going to sit quietly while Uncle Sam parks tanks on what it considers to be its front lawn. To borrow a line from a new John le Carré book: “To ignore history is to ignore the wolf at the door.”
The author was The Sunday Times central Europe reporter who was made foreign correspondent of the year for his coverage of the end of the cold war
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The sad thing about David Miliband is that his father was a brilliant, gentle Marxist theorist, who clearly showed who really rules in Britain, the US, etc., ie, the corporate class. The son has betrayed all that with his support for US and British imperialist forays in the Middle East and Georgia.
Tony Fluxman, Grahamstown , South Africa
Mostly well known facts except to Milliband and Camaeron.
Indeed Russia, Ukraine and Bielorussia form a common cultural space. Under present circumstances Russia would not mind if Ukraine got into the EU. But NATO and missiles and stuff pointed at Moscow is a declaration of war.
max Pappas, Montreal, CANADA
Robert
Perhaps it would not be such a bad idea if Cedar Rapids was given to Canada without your vote?
If you only had a choice between dying or being a guard, which would you choose? Ever seen the movie "Seven Beauties?"
Anton is correct. The world would be better off if Ukraine stays neutral.
Mike, San Antonio TX, USA
I agree with Anton. Ukraine should remain neutral and have good relations with both the US and Russia while not allowing anyone to pit it against someone else. Also, Economically, Russia is much more valuable to Ukraine than is the US, with whom it does very little trade.
Paul, Clover, SC, USA
Perhaps it would not be such a bad idea to just divide up Ukraine. The part near Poland could be incorporated into that country, the Crimea added to Russia, and the rest remain as "Ukraine." During ww2 Ukrainians were often concentration camp guards for the Germans. Any info on that?
Robert, Cedar Falls, USA
Unfortunately Peter Millar does not appear to know his history when he claimed that 'Ukraine had no independent existence before 1991'. He seems to display as much ignorance of it as the British policians he chastises. As for Russia, it still has a colonial mentality that denies freedom to others.
George Sobol, St Peters, Australia
Some of you, guys, miss the point of this article. It is not about the Ukraine's history, or language, or even Ukraine-Russia relations. It is about today's geopolitical situation. It will be much better for the entire world if the Ukraine stays neutral country friendly both to the West and Russia.
Anton, Urjupinsk, Russia
the author has no idea about the history of Ukraine
Alex Skrypnik, Kharkov, Ukraine
The article has a definite Russian slant. Kudos to comments made by Rostyslav, Serge, Nataliya and Svyatoslav all of Ukraine. The fact that a people have been dominated for centuries by one conqurer or another does not disqualify them from self determination and nationhood.
Jim U, Northridge, USA
Author, be careful, another fact error: "the statue that dominates the Puskin Square" is that of Puskin and not Rurik.
Pavel, Moscow, Russia
"We stopped saying the Ukraine to make it sound more like any other country. To Russians it doesnt. "
"Of all the losses (..) those of Ukraine and Belarus have been hardest for Russians to suffer"
-- Ukrainians must appease suffering "brothers" at all cost.
Bring the magic "The" back!
Serhii, Tokyo, Japan
Milliband and Cameron , a little knowledge is more dangerous than no knowledge, spitting venom at Russia seems to be Millibands favourite pastime, Cameron is just jumping on the bandwagon, Saakasvili needs locking up in a phyciatric institution, an Georgia should apologise to the world for the mess
Tom, Notts, UK
Moscow is just a formation built thanks to Kievan Rus separatist Dolgorukiy, and this mainly artificial formation known before as Moscovia, not Russia. When Peter I came to power he just wanted to legalize this formation in all available ways. Paying the western newspapers was most efficient.
igorsova, London, UK
And what about the fact today Ukraine is taking the same path of other European countries, by allowing the Neo-Nazi troops in the streets and making WWI war criminals national heroes?
Everything which can hurt Russian, they will do!
Before to look at Russia, we may need to look the new Europe, no?
Ivan, Nott's, U.K.
1. Ukrayina (Ukraine) does not come from the word okrayina (borderland). In many Slavic languages, theres a word krayina, which means country.
2. Kyivan Rus did not invent Russia. The Grand Duchy of Moscow did.
3. Eastern Ukraine was Russified. It was not originally populated by Russians.
Taras, Kyiv, Ukraine
Brilliant article! At long last some truth! Thank you, the Times!
Victor, St Petersburg, Russia
The British created Pakistan in an area that was an integral part of India for over 5000 years. The Muslims in that part did not even want a nation but the British incited them to demand a separate state. Then they created N. Ireland. Then trouble in Fiji. Now in Ukraine. Russia must say, Not here.
Rakesh Krishnan, Auckland, New Zealand
This article completely ignores what used to be regarded as conventional wisdom-:hat a big reason Hitler lost WWII was his mistake in treating Ukrainians as Russians. CW was, once, that the Ukrainian desire for independence could have been used by the Nazis, who luckily were blind as well as cruel.
mark peters, pierce city, USA
My knowledge of English doesn't make me Englishman or American.
And so my knowledge of Russian language doesn't make me Russian.
Rostyslav, Vinnytsa(UA),Dnepr(UA),Tampa(,
Undoubtedly, the Ukraine must be split in two countries. All sides benefit of it. It will come true very soon.
Oleg, Moscow, Russia
Svyatoslav, Chernihiv, Ukraine
Your comment proves that the article is correct. You and your West Ukraine brothers hate Russia. But you are a minority. Most of the Ukranians want good relations with Russia, as would any sensible person. Russia provides Ukraine with more jobs then rest of Europe.
Oleg, Toronto, Canada
The brother myth is not very popular in Ukraine as the imperialistic policy of Moscow had clearly shown enough of the "love" that this Big Brother can give. And Kremlin`s policy today isn`t getting any better, because they don`t want to see Ukraine as a patner, only as their colony.
Svyatoslav, Chernihiv, Ukraine
Russia for more then 3 centuries forbid and destroy everything ukrainian, books, schools, universities, church, our poets and writers put in jail, now they continue anti-ukrainian propoganda in TV& newspaper. After Georgia they try to destroy not only our country, but completely destroy our nation..
Serge, Kyiv,
So what the West should do? Let Ukraine retracts from the newly-stablished electoral democratic system to fall again in Moscow's dictatorial arms? The real question is not about languages and religion, but respect for national independence, integrity and above all, democracy.
MaGioZal, São Paulo, Brazil
If you look All-Ukrainian population census'2001 data you'll see - The part of those whose mother tongue is Ukrainian totals 67.5% of the population of Ukraine in 2001, this is by 2.8 percentage points more than in 1989. The percentage of those whose mother tongue is Russian totals 29.6%, not 50%!
Serge, Kyiv,
Ukraine is a totally different country from Russia,Ukraine has it's own language,culture and history and that's a fact.Most Ukrainians speak Ukrainian and sing and write poetry in Ukrainian.People in big cities do speak Russian,that sounds really funny, if you go to Moscow you'll hear the difference
Nataliya, L'viv, Ukraine
For centuries Russia consisted of White Russia (Belarus), Little Russia (Ukraine) and Great Russia (Russian Federation). All one Slavic blood
Like all brothers it is a shame to see them fight
But its a greater shame when outside nations fuel the fires.
Alex, Melbourne, Australia
I find it very frightening to hear the posturing and vacuous threats uttered by the two boys David. They sound very much like men who have never experienced war, thought deeply about it, or even read about it. Russia has done nothing wrong, and moreover we have no power to sway it.
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
A very good article.It is frightening to see the empty posturing of Western politicians against Russia, whilst they entirely lack any knowledge of facts and historical understanding for the concerned regions. Russia is the natural partner of Europe NOT the USA;.We should stop following US agendas.
Szabolcs Piskolti, Signy, Switzerland
Russian Federation Pop. 146m - Former Soviet states who hate RF - Pop. 100m + Ukraine 50m. (EU 491m + US 303m)
The above countries will fircely resist RF invasion. Many are NATO members, and Millar's views count for nothing if a NATO member is invaded. Russia is outnumbered by over 5:1
Richard, Bucharest,
The most sensible comment on this is Vaclav Havel's - 'Russia doesn't know where it begins or ends'. There is no right answer, and people's emotions are engaged. Therefore we must concentrate on what our vital interests are and stick to defending those. That's hard enough without picking fights.
Alfred T Mahan, New Forest,
A common sense assesment at last - well done!
It's a pity our political leaders believe their own one sided propoganda from the NATO US script.
Trevor, Thetford, UK
Three things I laughed at!!:
"Rurik standing on Pushkin square" (it's actually a very good monument to poet Pushkin). "Sabre rattling continues!!" in "related links," and "Uncle Sam parking his tanks in Russia's front lawn!"
Wasn't it Russia's BACKYARD always? Thanks for the laughs.
Sergei, Moscow,
David Miliband and David Cameron have no right to say anything as the UK harbours a US military base therefore is not a sovereign country. Germany is definately not a sovereign country it has 81 US military bases from a total of 750 US military bases in over 150 countries while Japan has 37 US bases
Rob, Sydney, Australia
To the best of my knowledge, this is very balanced analysis. David Miliband and David Cameron should definitely read it!
Wagner, Neuss,
I good summary of the potential for war in Ukraine. I bit understated, though. Losing the Crimean peninsula will be the least of Kiev's problems. The entire country is essentially divided between the former Polish west and the pro-Russian east. Ukraine is already split in two.
Veniamin Nikolayev, Philadelphia, USA
Very sensible article. It is time for Europe to start asking why all new "democracies" find it profitable to join an anti-Russian military block, whether this trend is profitable for EU (including the risk of nuclear war with Russia) and whether NATO can be a good substitute for EU goverment.
Alex, Canberra, Australia
OK. I am Ukrainian. I love my country and I speak Russian. My child speaks Russian. If someone dares to enforce NATO on Ukraine I (as many Ukrainians) will consider it an invasion !!!
About 75% of Ukraine speaks Russian, BTW. You won't hear Ukrainian speech there, which is not good but its a fact.
Ruslan Sendecky, Kharkov,
Thank you for this article, I think we need more of this sort of thing! It angers me that most of the posturing from our supposed leaders and leaders to be has been for their own selfish polical goals.
Alan Forster, Rushden, UK
Hallelujah!!!
At last a voice of sanity from "free and unbiased"!
Elena, Bed's,
Actually Ukraine is not Yushenko's voice Fred. Opinion polls give Tymoshenko 24 percent enough to win a presidential election if it were held now. Former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich the rival Yushchenko beat in 2004 has just over 20 percent, while the president Yushenko has about 7 percent
Rob , Sydney, Australia
In my opinion it is a great tragedy that Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are not together now. We are the slavonic BROTHERS, we have one culture and one history. We should be togehter , not necessarily in one Empire.
But, of course, there MUST be NO WAR between brothers. Hope these dark days will pass
Alexey, Perm, Russia
well Fred what about what Ukrainians dont want....it has four letters yes NATO. Most Ukrainians dont want it and dont want a war with Russia either. But thats the flip side with westen democracy. Democracy's predicate is western interests. Seems like British neo colonialism.
John, London,
What pathetic Russocentric history. The area surrounding Moscow was known as Muscovy well into the 18th century. At that time there was no Russia. In the 18th century Muscovites usurped the term 'Rus' to become 'Russians', & Rusyns around Kyiv became Ukrainians to differentiate themselves.
Greg, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
As the article states, to Russia the Ukraine isn't a foreign country to be taken; it is a part of Russia. Most Russians see the Kievan Rus as their ancestors, so Russia won't appreciate watching their heritage move toward the west.
Dustin, Meechigan, USA
'Ukraine had no independent existence before 1991'
Ukranian nationalism has a long history and this article appears to dismiss the ideology that led to its creation in 1991. I wouldn't like to have a few beers with a Ukranian nationalist and tell him his country is bogus and really part of Russia!!!
Graeme Thomson, Glasgow , Scotland
First, Millar should be informed that there is no such language as 'Old Slavonicu'. Not even an 'Old Slavonic'. There is a Church Slavonic but it has nothing to do with the origin of Ukraine. 'Ukraine' comes from "U Krayj" which means 'homeland' & predates 'Muskovy' or even 'Imperial Russia'
Taras, St-Catherines, Ontario, Canada
There is a lot in this article about what Russia wants, and precious little about what Ukraine wants. The sooner Russia realises, like Britain, France and the other colonial powers, that the days of empire are over, the sooner it will accepted as a grown up, responsible partner.
Fred Harris, Slough, UK
Very precise analysis.
David & David had like a 'safari visits' to Georgia and region & each had 15 minutes briefing.
They did not have much to say, as their mentor did not send them a fax with instructions what to say - mentor is also in a shock.
So they both opted for empty 'tough-leader posing'.
savo, london, uk
They obviously haven't read much Lermontov either
John, London, SE,
Facts check: In 1945 the Crimean Autonomous SSR was transformed into Crimean province of the RFSFR. It was not until 1954 that Khrushev transferred Crimea to the Ukraine as Crimean ASSR.
vva, Los Angeles, CA, US
"Crimea was not part of Ukraine before 1945" -- you meant to say 1954 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea, and you meant to say "the Ukraine", as at that time it was the Ukrainian SSR.
tony, Rochester, USA!
strange for this 100% russian view. Ukrainians I know are not 100% so sure about this point of view - particularly those working in the west (some 10% of the population) and those living in the western and middle part of Ukraine. OK, Kiev, Moscow and St. Petersburg are the 3 main cities - for russia
mark, alicante, spain