Tim Congdon
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Banks are strange institutions. They can epitomise the free market at its best and also indulge in some of the worst forms of financial skulduggery just on the right side of the law; they are both the standard-bearers of the capitalist system and, too often, its worst advertisement.
But, for the layperson, perhaps the oddest feature of banking is its arithmetic. When other businesses deal with each other they assume, correctly in most cases, that the assets - the land, the buildings, the machinery - belong largely or wholly to their shareholders. But most banks' assets consist of loans and are owned to a small extent only by their shareholders.
Typically, the part of the banks' assets that belongs to shareholders - the capital - is less than 5 per cent of the total. In the jargon, banks' capital-to-asset ratios are under 5 per cent. The capital is needed to protect the banks' depositors, who own more than 95 per cent of the claims on a bank, against bad risks in the loan portfolios.
When this is explained to them, the first reaction of most people is to run. However, British high street banks have operated with capital-to-asset ratios of about 5 per cent for many decades, and their customers have been able safely to deposit money and withdraw it on literally billions of occasions.
The point is that banks have learnt how to ensure that their borrowing customers pay back loans in full and on time. In most years the losses from unpaid loans are comfortably exceeded by profits from interest income and an assortment of fees. But every now and again, the banks take too many risks and the arithmetic turns sour.
In the past few years, commercial banks - Britain's high street and America's Main Street banks that take deposits from the public and process cheques - have purchased large quantities of so-called structured finance products from investment banks. (The latter differ from commercial banks in two main respects, that they trade and underwrite securities, and that their executives are - or were - even more stupendously overpaid.)
In principle the typical structured finance product bought by a commercial bank has been very safe and, when issued, was given a triple-A rating by the credit rating agencies. These triple-A securities ought to repay 100 cents in the dollar, 100 pence in the pound, 100 cents in the euro and so on. The great majority of them probably will repay in this way, despite the recent shenanigans.
Unfortunately, last year the wholesale money markets closed up for a wide variety of reasons, of which the most important was the fall in American house prices and the implications of that fall for the value of the structured finance securities. Triple-A securities dropped in value, often by 10 to 20 per cent. If such securities were, say, 10 per cent of high street bank assets then they had lost 1 or 2 per cent of the value of all their assets.
That sounds trifling, hardly enough to threaten the banks' charitable donations let alone the future of capitalism. But here comes the vicious arithmetic. A drop in the value of assets of 2 per cent wipes out 40 per cent of the capital of an organisation such as a bank that is only 5 per cent owned by its shareholders. According to rules developed by international financial bureaucrats in Basle over the past 20 years, a bank that has lost a big chunk of its capital must - at least theoretically - shrink its assets to restore the sacred capital-to-assets ratio to its original level.
A ghastly downward spiral, called “debt deflation”, can now engulf the system. The banks can shrink their assets by selling off securities or forcing their customers to repay loans. But sales of securities aggravate the fall in their price, and forcing customers to repay loans is even more gruesome. As loan portfolios decline, so does the level of bank deposits. Bank deposits are the principal form of money in today's world. If the quantity of money goes down, so do asset prices, incomes and spending.
None of the above, despite its overwhelming significance for employment and living standards, is rocket science. Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has written extensively about the Great Depression of the 1930s, the worst example so far of debt deflation.
The downward spiral is caused by a logjam that prevents market agents from pricing assets correctly. The textbook answer is well known and was applied by the Bank of England on many occasions in the 19th and 20th centuries. The central bank, assisted by the Government, must move into the markets and buy up every decent security in sight. Instead of the triple-A securities trading at 80 or 85 cents, heavy official purchases could raise the price to 90 or 95 cents. The banks can start to write back their capital and to lend again, ending the crisis.
Like Mr Bernanke, the US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson knows that big government or central bank purchases of securities must be the priority in an extreme crisis of the present kind. That was the rationale for the Paulson plan of a fund of up to $700 billion to buy in the banks' blighted securities. It was the right thing to do, but Congress didn't like Mr Paulson's chumminess with the bankers.
Given the harsh arithmetic of a modern banking system, Mr Paulson and Mr Bernanke must try, try and try again to get a similar package through the American political system. If Congress remains pig-headed, a big cut in interest rates, possibly to zero, could be needed to rescue the banking systems and economic prosperity of the leading industrial countries.
Tim Congdon is an economist and writer, who served on the Treasury Panel of Independent Forecasters (the Wise Men) under the last Conservative Government
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If we reduce interest rates, this will fuel inflation by reducing the value of sterling. Recession and inflation are bedellows and we must learn from history. In Germany in the 1930's, recession did not stop inflation government spending on public infrastructure roads, railways etc. did.
Robin Linger, Meols, Wirral
If the govt's primary goal is to support the banking system it should pay as much as legitimately possible for these securities. If its primary goal is to maximize taxpayer value it should pay as little as legitimately possible. How will these competing goals be balanced?
John Falck, Chicago,
the idea is to let people have access to unlimited funds(debt) so that they can go out and purchase anything and everything they can get hold of in order to oil the economy.this is done by the banks and now is the pay time .there should be no rescue and let them go to the wall.no sympathy for banks.
eebi britt, rome, italy
Mr Congdon, you confuse solvency and liquidity. Some banks are insolvent; no one knows which. Banks fear dealing with each other until the bad banks are identified via failure or are recapitalised. Paulson's plan fails to do the latter. A lower Fed funds rate also increases liquidity not solvency.
James, Pittsburgh, USA
The government should not take over the bad debts that the banks recklessly (some would say fraudulently) acquired. The government could offer the banks loans and capital in return for equity in the bank. The taxpayer could then get a return on their money when the system returns to normal.
Mike, Manchester, uk
For John Smythe: If assets decline in value by 2%, that is a loss to the bank - they'll only recover 98% of the funds loaned. That 2% loss has to be absorbed by capital which declines around 40%. If the bank is liquidated, and only 98% of loans recovered, shareholder's equity declines about 40%.
Mike Isaacs, London, England
American fiasco started in 1977 when President Carter required banks to meet requirements of their ENTIRE COMMUNITY. The Clinton admin in 1977 further bolstered that Community Reinvestment Act urging subprime loans. In 2003 Democrats stopped W.Bush from getting tighter controls on subprime lenders
Ben, Sunderland, England
Massive over-simplification. How much of the 5% equity was down to false earnings in previous years and to what extent were these earnings falsified for personal gain? What is the underlying profitability of banks given their bloated cost base? Instead of zero interest rates they should cut costs.
Steve, Manchester,
Abolish credit cards and put up interest rates to 6%.
m wilson, bidache, France
It would be simpler to lower mandatory capital ratios for two years during which time the government would stand ready to underwrite appropriate rights issues of the banks.
Shares in freshly recapitalised banks are more attractive than toxic securities.
Marek, London,
Ok these securities need to be purchased to get the system going.
Yet the tax payer should not lose money.
Bank shareholders should lose the money(equity), with them and the government taking action to punish the banks management for this mess.
Consolidation of banks and rebalancing is needed
David Shephard, Watford, UK
This entire edifice was built on credit. In a rising asset environment, the Bank posts supernormal returns. In a declining environment, the Bank post supernormal losses. Furthermore, when you use other People's money [Leveraging], you are always dependent on their Kindness a la Blanch Dubois.
Aly-Khan Satchu, Nairobi, Kenya
why would u cut the interest rate to zero? then the banks will only have the money markets to raise money from as there will be no reason to deposit. look at japan, they had zero interest rates and their ecconomy was in the doldrums for a decade.
will, grimsby, uk
Yes, lets pour petrol onto the fire! The whole Anglo-American financial system is currently imploding under the weight of a vast mountain of unpayable debt and your solution is to create more debt? Utter utter madness.
Mark, Leeds,
I think it's the 'yeah, we've been greedy and stupid but you've got to bail us out 'cos you'll suffer if you don't' attitude that rightly sticks in the craw of normally adjusted people.
This must NEVER happen again. We live in a democracy, not a corporatocracy (apparently)
MD, Milton Keynes,
The 2% drop in total assets must be written off against the 5% part the asset that is shareholder equity, not the 95% that is depositors' funds. Depositors fully expect the bank to bear the loss from the bank's operation.
Ann, Hong Kong, China
Zero interest rates!
Money, matress - now!!!
J Grindle, Sidcup, Kent
So many fallacies, so little space!
This bailout is the wrong thing to do as it is continuing the misallocation of resources which were caused by (among other things) the Fed's manipulated low interest rates. Want a wealthier country? Then let prices adjust to where they should be.
Sam, London,
"As loan portfolios decline, so does the level of bank deposits."
Could someone please explain this point. I must have missed something obvious.
Des, Edinburgh,
Thank you very much indeed for that explanation. I wish you'd written it 2 weeks ago!
Ben, newcastle,
I don't get your arithmetic: A drop of 2% of the 95% assets results in 93.1. To maintain the 5:95 capital:asset ratio, the capital drops to 4.9 (i.e. 2% of 5), this leaves a ratio of 4.9:93.1. This maintains the 5:95 capital:asset ratio. How did you work out 40% drop in capital if assets drops by 2%
john smythe, Woking, UK
Very informative article-Thanks. But, with all this added money it seems that it would be inflationary on down the line.
Bryan, Cove, USA
Great explanation. Any chance of a similar one to tell us how the 'Balance Sheet' works, something that's been mentioned on many occasions.
Keith Jones, Reading, England
The solution does not prevent the problem reoccurring or worsening. Bail out required? Maybe. A mechanism to prevent complex strcutured finance products from ever again becoming significant part of bank "assets" is minimum required and still absent from proposals- hence no deal.
Nick, London,
The core of the problem lies with executive compensation. As Mr Congdon says, sometimes banks take too many risks. But why? It's not in the bank's interest; nor its depositors'; nor its shareholders'. One group stands to gain: the executives. They compete to show the most profit, but never lose.
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
Why not nationalize all banks, forbid mutuals to become banks, than after a few years denationalize most banks and pay management and dealers salaries comparable to other professions i.e. teachers, doctors, architects etz. Or limit high salaries through taxation a la D Healy.
Peter Kaldor, Woking, U.K.
Providing the Govenrment gets a return on these purchases I see no problem - perhaps they can conyinually impose windfall taxes on the banks until the amount is paid off. In effect the banks have taken out a loan with the Government.
John Wood, Hull, UK
Well done Tim
Finally someone who has explained in plan english and math what is happening.
On a side note, I do not advocate the suspension of mark-to-market accounting by a replacement with mark-to-maturity, this will slow the downward 'death spiral' and reduce the need for new capital
Jason, London, UK
The banks' capital is a finite and known number in billion,but the toxic papers amount is not known
at any time.
Perhaps the government should buy up or increase the banks' capital rather than buying the toxic papers.
abubakarabrahman, Melaka, Malaysia
The bill may or may not get the banks to loan. Even if you think this is the best method we should demand a piece of hide. The gov should get preferred shares in a secondary offering. The first propossal gave us zip, now they say the president will figure something out in 5 yrs ie prior to election
MEaston, Madison, Dane
Mr. Congdon argues that the central bank must "buy up every decent security in sight," yet he then goes on to say that this is the rationale underlying Mr. Paulson's plan to buy $700 billion of the banks' "blighted" securities. And therein lies the rub - - blighted, not decent, securities.
Brian Ragen, Boise, USA
why not just change or suspend the ration of capital to loans until the economy is moving again and then slowly reinstate it as the "crisis" slowly resolves itself. Seems a better solution than buying $700 billion of junk. Now who will the government hire to sort out the loans?? YUP, you got it...
Paul , Euclid, USA
Every US Congessman is up for reelection in 5 weeks. The phone calls from their constituients are overwheming against the bailout... Few Profiles in Courage to be found.. The GOP still finds Ayn Rand as their god.
John , New Jersey , USA
Atten: Tim Congdon. Re: Your column of 10-01-08.
Your column is very informative, but it leaves out the finite solution to this problem. Mr. Paulson, and others proposing the corrective action, have stated that they don't know the answer to this giant problem, but they think a 700 Billion dollar
Kenneth B, Smith, P.E., Wilmington, DE, U.S.A.
Handing out a textbook on the Great Depression to all congressmen might help. Or can't they all read?
Paul Freeman, London, England