Vince Cable
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The rules of financial seamanship devised for calm waters and the occasional moderate storm are not proving much use in the face of the tsunami bearing down on us. Panic is the all-too-human reaction. And fear.
Leadership is required. Leadership will not come from a committee of economic ministers standing behind the chancellor, debating where to steer and fighting for control of the tiller. There has to be a sense of policy direction. Fortunately there are lessons to be learnt from previous financial tsunamis.
The first relates to monetary policy. There is now a severe monetary squeeze taking place, even though official interest rates are negative in real terms in the United States and low elsewhere, including Britain. Banks are hoarding cash and trying to avoid all but the safest customers. After the disappearance of new mortgage lending, lines of credit are being pulled from companies and individuals.
History teaches us that interest rates should be slashed during a banking crisis to stave off deep recession. This has happened in the United States, but not in Britain. The approach of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, dictated by its mandate, is to balance deflationary against inflationary risks with, in practice, occasional small adjustments in interest rates. The committee is in danger of becoming irrelevant in an environment where short and medium-term inflationary risks are massively outweighed by the danger of a once-in-a-lifetime collapse of the financial system.
Central bank independence must be maintained – not least because, after the crisis has passed, intervention by governments could have big inflationary consequences. What is required is for the chancellor to write to the governor saying that on a temporary emergency basis the committee should assume a central role in countering the crisis with a large cut in interest rates. A big cut – conceivably as much as two percentage points – would have a big psychological impact on consumer and business confidence when it is most needed.
Second, a far-reaching approach is required for the banks. Hitherto the Bank has provided unlimited liquidity (at a penalty rate and against sound security). Beyond that, banking crises have been dealt with on an ad hoc basis with, now, two nationalisations, an officially orchestrated merger (Lloyds TSB/HBOS) and various takeovers (Alliance & Leicester by Santander; smaller building societies folded into Nationwide). That approach has been right. The danger, however, is that the collapse in investors’ confidence in banks could result in the remaining high street banks being picked off, one at a time, resulting in a succession of messy nationalisations or forced mergers.
There is a case for a more systematic approach. A good model for managing a banking crisis is Sweden. After the collapse in the property market in the early 1990s, not dissimilar from America and Britain today, the banks had insufficient capital and there was a confidence crisis. The focus was on recapitalising the banks. Debt-equity swaps and new equity issues were generated under a government-managed programme. The government either nationalised banks or acquired a stake in them. When the banks’ balance sheets were sufficiently robust and economic conditions had improved, the government sold its stake (and made money for the taxpayer).
A variant of the Swedish model could be applied here. One step would be to help banks to raise fresh capital from the markets. At present banks cannot make rights issues because share prices are depressed and confidence has gone. Even in better conditions, underwriters have been left with a large chunk of shares. Were the government to agree to act as underwriter (for a fee) it is much more likely that capital would be raised or, if not, the government would acquire convertible preference shares and hold them up to the underwriting limit. The shares could be sold later, as in the Swedish case, but in the meantime they would generate an income for the taxpayer.
The financial crisis has touched only the edges of the real economy. Nobody seriously expects that to last. There has to be a coherent government response starting with the most vulnerable part: housing. It would be wrong to try to prop up house prices which still have some way to fall to restore affordability. A better approach would be to use the £8 billion the government has committed to social housing for social landlords to buy surplus land and property at the hefty discounts being offered. A large programme of social house building and property acquisition would help to reduce housing need and revive the sheltered house building industry while creating a public sector asset.
Beyond that lies the need for a new regulatory deal with the financial community. This should not be done when the public mood is understandably for hanging, drawing and quartering anyone connected with banking, although there is scope for some early practical reforms linking bank capital requirements to the economic cycle. There will be time enough for post-tsunami reconstruction. The priority now is disaster management.
Vince Cable is the Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman
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Lower your rates all you want Mr. Cable. BUT,the UK is a the largest debtor nation of all 32 OECD countries. This year alone you will most likely borrow £100billion. When you come to borrow that money you will be told what interest UK will pay if you want the£.Lower BOE rate&you will pay even more
KR, Cap Ferrat, FRANCE
If rates are cut sterling will fall and prices will rise.
But it will no effect on people's borrowings because Banks will not pass the cut on.
M Reid, Northampton,
make the banking crisis worse - cut interest rates: savers will withdraw en mass and decimate retail deposits held by the banks making their situations even worse. More bank runs to come
j dickinson, middlesborough,
These problems arise from fraud, deception, whatever you want to call it. The last thing we need is to fuel more irresponsible lending in consumer loans tied to the BOE rate. Small savers are needed to put some honesty back into the system. Why penalise us further by cutting rates?
Carol, Derbyshire,
If Gordon Brown really wants to bring some talent into the government in this time of crisis he should make Vince Cable Chancellor, a professional economist, replacing Darling - a lawyer.
"Government of all the talents" !
Karim, Towcester, UK
As things stand, slashing interest rates now would have a similar effect to that of plactic surgery upon a dead body...pointless.
Mr cable is right, but not being entirely honest. So grave are things for Britain now, in time we will be compared to present day Rhodesia.
David Downes, Chester, UK
As a houseowner/ no mortgage my house has hugely 'increased' in value thanx to Gord's boom but I agree house prices shld NOT be propped up. Houses in the SE are unaffordable. Vince as ever is talking sense. But Gord WILL re-stoke house prices: he wants to be elected & negative equity = lost election
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
If interest rates minus inflation is negative then why save anything in sterling? That's even ignoring tax on savings. I would already have been better off putting all my money into Euros earlier in the year, if my pounds are to be watered down to nothing then frankly why bother holding them?
Phil, Welwyn, UK
Cheap money is a major cause for our current situation. We need to start putting a proper value on money and encourage all forms of savings rather than continue the failed low interest rate policy that has feed the 'Irrational Exuberance'.
Crowther, Silsden, UK
So even Vince Cable, who has culitvated a media image of common sense, follows the Gordo line of destroying Sterling to inflate away the debt. No sooner will there be this rate cut demanded by the political-media-economic elite than savers will, in their droves, move their money overseas.
Paul, Coventry,
The current turmoil is partly to blame because interest rates have been kept artificially low for too long. Have we not learnt anything from this mess?
scotty, london,
Do these fools learn nothing? Greenspan cut rates to head of a recession 2 or 3 times and we have the current melt down as a result. You cannot have a boom without a bust. Rate cuts will only delay and exacerbate the problem.
Simon, London, UK
There is no point in lowering interest rates if the banks don't pass them on. The people who provide the real money to banks, depositors, then miss out too as the banks reduce interst rates to savers. The only winners in this, funny old thing, - the banks who created the mess in the first place.
Jim, Norwich, uk
You don't just need to look at financial tsunamis, look at other types of crisis.
1. Getting rid of Hitler.
2. Healing traumatised communities post 9-11.
3. The winter of discontent.
4. Hurricanes Katrina and Gustav.......
5. 1997 Tory meltdown.
Lessons there, anyone?
Rhys Jaggar, Leeds, UK
Thank you Vince !! At last a politician who is serving up concrete ideas rather than an a toilet roll of empty rhetoric !!
Ian, Littlehampton,
Vince Cable is one of the very few politicians to add gravitas to the Lib Dems and it is a pity he cannot have better access to power to effect his theory. I disagree on one point - there has not yet been a collapse in land values and effecting his proposal now may artificially keep prices high.
Tim, London, UK
Let the market do as it must. There will be losers, but there will also be winners with whatever action (or inaction) you take. Time all politicians took note of what S Yogarajah, Harrow, , UK has just said. The LD's clearly don't represent the poor.
Simon, York, England
Jim if the government inflate their way out of this it's the purchasing power of money that changes, not the 'real' value of assets.
Tom, London,
Thanks Vince, I didn't know whether to vote Liberal or Conservative at the next election; now I know I definitely won't vote for the Liberals. Good to know you would undo one of New Labour's genuinely good decisions. BoE independence only when things are going well.
John Dickinson, Poole,
With interest at their present levels, we already have some people buying GOLD which doesn't produce any income and yet reduces Bank liquidity. Reducing interest rates will only drive more peoples savings out of the Bank retail markets exacerbating the liquidity problems and driving up inflation.
Mick Owen, Bolton, England
If interest rates are cut it will undermine the value of Sterling, which is already undergoing a painful correction and will lead to largescale increases in the price of food, so much of which is imported. Although we need to cut rates, this is not the time to do so, inflation is far more dangerous.
Tony Makara, Manchester,
Surprisingly, ever sensible Vince Cable is overlooking over inflated asset prices that robs the young and those who have not yet acquired assets to benefit those holding the bloated assets. There is no fair or sensible way to tackle the current predicament without lancing the boil.
S Yogarajah, Harrow, , UK
i wish vince cable was working with the tories - he is a wasted asset being with the Lib Dems
paul, nottingham, UK
Vince Cable is one of the very few politicians I can listen to without getting angry. He is a man of obvious skill and clear integrity, unlike the current shower of career politicians and incompetent non-entities. I am not a Lib-dem supporter, but I dearly wish he was Chancellor.
Jack, York,
since the government are nationalizing banks using taxpayer money, why can't they force rescued banks to offer reasonable mortgage rates to save further collapse. my mortgage is rising from 4.5% to 8.2% and I can't find a lender willing to remortgage, as price drops have left me with only 10% equity
Phil, London,
I think the suggestion here to 'solve' the problem by inflating our way out of it, as in the seventies will finally be adopted. It gets our indebted government and population off the hook, and rewards the profligate while penalising the thrifty who will see the real value of assets tumble.
Jim, london,
Mr Cable keeps raising this idea of Housing Associations buying up extra capacity. Buying up land is ok, but RSLs have build quality and overcrowding standards to maintain which regular builders do not comply with. We don't want another 1960s tenement problem in the years ahead.
Alex, Liverpool, UK
would the 700 billion US dollar not buy all the houses with troubled mortgages in the US? If so would that not be the root of the problem?
henry, notts,