Tim Congdon
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Is the Government's rescue programme beast or beauty for Britain's banks? The leap in share prices has been beautiful for short-term investors in the stock market. But a strong case can be made that the Government has been beastly to the banks, with dangerous long-term consequences for our financial sector.
What effect will the Government's actions have on the structure of the British financial system and, in particular, on the international competitiveness of the City of London? In a recent speech Paul Tucker, an executive director of the Bank of England, referred to a “social contract” between the Bank and Britain's commercial banks.
The heart of that contract used to be the lender-of-last-resort function. When a solvent and profitable British bank had difficulty funding its assets, the Bank of England was supposed to lend freely to that institution at a penal rate. The rate was to be high enough to encourage early repayment, but it was not to involve any attack on shareholders' rights.
Britain's bankers have been greedy, naughty and irresponsible in the past few years. Well, bankers are greedy, naughty and irresponsible everywhere and at all times. For all their faults Britain's banks are not insolvent or unprofitable. At the end of June this year the book value of the much maligned Royal Bank of Scotland's equity was more than £60 billion, while the total profits in 2007 of the eight institutions negotiating with the Treasury last Tuesday night was about £40 billion.
When the Northern Rock crisis broke last August, the Financial Services Authority responded appropriately. It tried to marry Northern Rock, which could not fund itself in the wholesale markets, with Lloyds TSB, which had a strong network of retail branches. But Lloyds TSB was worried that even the retail network might not be able to raise enough money, and sought to borrow from the Bank of England.
This would have been a classic lender-of-last-resort arrangement of a kind that the Bank of England had undertaken before. Alistair Darling is said to have vetoed the facility on advice from Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England.
Since then King has insisted that it is not the Bank's job to provide long-term finance to Britain's banks. He seems to have repudiated the lender-of-last-resort role.
The damage to confidence has been done. The world believes that Britain's banks are bust or semi-bust, whether at the last reporting date (end-June 2008) they had shareholders' funds of £200 billion or not. The British Government seems to agree with the world that organisations with capital about three months ago of £200 billion may be bust, and has decided that these organisations must raise more capital if they want to access the Bank's facilities.
Potential private investors cannot overlook that this year the British State has nationalised two banks (Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley) without their shareholders' consent. If the British State can bully banks to take actions that neither their management nor shareholders approve, isn't it understandable that the capital markets are reluctant to put more money in?
Banks are forced into the hands of the State. Superficially the “preferred capital” made available last week was rather like a long-term lender-of-last-resort loan, and optimists might say that the Treasury was performing a role that used to be the Bank of England's. The trouble is that the preferred capital was also poisoned capital.
The banks could access it only if they also handed over to the Government chunks of their equity, the £200 billion or so that belongs to their shareholders. As with Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley, the Government is determined to drive a hard bargain. Its rhetoric is that the bankers must compensate the taxpayers for any rescue funds.
The trouble here is that British banks compete head-on with banks from other countries, where the governments are being more lenient. In the US the Bush Administration is avoiding nationalisation. A fair bet is that the nine banks identified as beneficiaries of yesterday's American package will be set softer terms than their British counterparts. In sharp contrast to the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve is lending on a massive scale for periods that may extend into a few years. It is acting as a lender-of-last-resort aggressively supporting America's banks.
Two conclusions cannot be avoided. The first is that it would have been better if the Bank of England had reacted to the recent troubles in the same way that it did, so brilliantly and effectively, in past crises. The support should have been pre-emptive and low-key, and it should have come as a traditional lender-of-last-resort loan. It ought to have been unnecessary for the Treasury to offer the strange mishmash of “money” that is now available on semi-confiscatory terms.
Secondly, the international competitiveness of Britain's banking industry is being destroyed. Nationalisation will cause undue caution and rigidity in banks' operations, while talented and experienced bank executives will seek to work elsewhere. In many cases they will emigrate.
New investors in British banking will be reluctant to come forward when the Government tries to privatise the assets it has taken from banks' existing shareholders. In the past 20 years Britain's economy has led the world in one, and only one, activity: international financial services. That leadership - and with it the prosperity of the City of London - is now in extreme peril.
Tim Congdon is an economist. He was a member of the Treasury Panel (the so-called “wise men”) that advised the last Conservative Government.
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Ultimately it is all down to greed; our beloved bankers will chase this years share price hike, and they will aim to impress the city with fiscal fireworks that cant be sustained.
Liam, London, UK
Banks (and regrettably my Building Society, the Derbyshire) have created this crisis. It makes me seeth to read this ridiculous nonsense. It's not the Government's fault - it gave the banks freedom (no Tories objected) and they blew it. Time to take responsibility.
Ricky, Bakewell, UK
If any British bank executives would like to emigrate, let them come to America. We will welcome them with open arms, as we can use all the Brits we can get.
William Henton, Washington, DC,
I had thought that the Lloyds TSB/HBOS deal was going to be one of the all-time greats, but HBOS ain't so good now and I'm damned if I can see why existing Lloyds shareholders should forego dividends until the HBOS preference shares are paid off. Let's all vote out of it and stay free like Barclays!
Geoffrey Woollard, Cambridge, England
ah, we're back to social contracts,or were they compacts, are we?
peter c, Devizes, Wessex
Don't worry, Tim, old sport - British banks always were much better at collusion than competition.
Adam Addis, Lancaster, UK
Excellent article - at last someone telling it like it is - a story of incompetence and poor judgement by King and the Government which has ruined London's reputation for banking and safe investment. The long term damage is immense-even if the Tories get in investors will fear the return of Labour.
David, London,
Richard, Chichester, West Sussex
People seem to forget conveniently when Brown became the chancellor of exchequor in 1997, he established the so called 'three way' framework, BOE+FSA +Treasury was supposed to do proactive regulation and monitoring . No use in blaming any one else but BROWN .
Julian, LONDON, UK
The "S" in HBOS and RBS means one thing : Scotland.
Kev S, Hertford, UK
When Brown and Darling confiscated Northern Rock they said that shareholder compensation would be calculated on the presumption that the government had suddenly called in its loan and the bank had gone bust.
Are they planning the same trick with the big banks?
Ron Entwistle, Cambridge, UK
Well said. Mr King is the worst head for Bank of England in its history. A more competent head in his position would be able to help most British banks to survive the crisis rather than been nationalised. He destroyed the British banking industry, and brought us a deeper recession than others.
Mark, Birmingham, UK
Is it Nationalisation or is it monoploisation ? A monopoly kills competition. Maybe they'll make a board game out of it.
Santanu, Warren, USA
The BoE seems to have made far more liquidity available than the FRB relatively and any analysis of the banking assets of some would show impairment of an extent that depleted all equity capital for some.
The Goodwins, Hornbys etc seem the problem not King.
Damian, Brighton, UK
So my suspicions that this is no more than an attempt to enact Clause 4 are correct.
Sue Doughty, Twyford, UK
The banks (& shareholders) played with fire and got their fingers burnt.
"greedy, naughty bankers" emmigrate - good riddance.
House price bubble NOT due to low BofE interest rates as rates have been cut by 0.5% but mortgage rates have not: bubble due to poor risk assessment by lenders.
Dave, Canterbury, UK
Surely this all stems from Thatchers day when the mortgage payments were kept off the RPI that the BOE had to keep below 2%. if it had inflation would have shown as higher and therefore there would have been higher interest rates. Keeping house prices lower.etc,etc, Higher rates for savings,etc,ect
Richard, Chichester, West Sussex
Nationalisation just levels the international playing field. Russia, China etc. keep a VERY tight reign on matters of "national security" such as finances, energy, infrastructure- resulting in unfair competition when they do business here or we over there.
Nick, London,
The share price is variable my deposits are not. If shareholders want to encourage their executives to get big returns, then they should be prepared for the rough. If they affect my "safe" deposit then I welcome the gov's intervention as I am sure millions of others do.
Jimd, Norwich, uk
Mervyn King has been an unmitigated disaster at the Bank of England. Wrong man, wrong place, wrong time. The Bank of England as lender of last resort is the foundation of a stable banking system. Failure to fulfil that role in a timely manner for NRK led directly to this financial tsunami.
William, Edinburgh, Scotland
what load of politically motivated nonsense! The bailout is imperative and is set up to ease the current mkt turmoil. The plan has worked in easing the market after the US and rest of the world found out that Lehman was too big to fail. Without this plan, the UK would suffer a much worse recession.
Nick, London,
objectively correct & a good article. Labour again have dabbled in matters they dont understand. the price will be even higher as a result both financial & social
tim, warwick,
It's time to remove independence of the Bank of England as an emergency measure. Clearly their inflation "nutters" attitude and their slow response and total detachment from real world (except for Mr Blanchflower) is largely to blame to what happened to UK banks. Mervyn King should resign.
mac, Manchester, UK
How about Britain's "financial space to manoeuvre"?
Who ever wins the election: the brace / corsett will be very very tight.
Peter, Berlin, Germany
At least the bankers are "talented" enough to make Gordon pay up by squeezing us the hapless Tax Payers. Alas, we the phlebs who are the tax payer get the governments and prime ministers we deserve!
raj, harrow, uk
Lloyds TSB has been prudently managed and is solvent even by current stress-tested standards. The bank's chairman foolishly agreed to Gordon Brown's proposal to take over HBOS and is now saddled with that bank's liabilities. Lloyds TSB's shareholders are to be punished for other's mistakes.
John Fitzgerald, Teddington,
Its wrong to assume that the fate of international financial services is tied to service providers. British Banks may fall, but British thought can still guide Int. Finance. Even if BoE could, should it have lent cheaply? It would have meant robbing from the value creators as asset values are myth.
Suhasini Sakhare, London, UK
Tim, its the "competitiveness" of British banks that got us, the taxpayers, into this mess in the first place. RBS chief Goodwin would not even say sorry for botching up his job. And its not banks money, its the depositors money that has been gambled and lost. I hope that you understand that.
John Taylor, London,
So you are arguing that Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley were viable well managed operations and the BOE should just have given them as much money as they wanted, no strings attached?
Glen, Melbourne,
Just when the Chinese, Indonesian, Indian and Russian economies are moving out of the era of 'state banks' otherwise solvent institutions are dragged back under the socialist yoke in the United Kingdom. Cameron and Osborne need to speak up and be heard and not meekly agree with Browns socialist plot
Neil Johnson, Singapore, Singapore
1677 it says over the doors -- it took 331 years to create the value in Lloyds Bank. It took Gordon Brown and SirVictor Blank one meeting to destroy it.
Lloyds is now blighted by HBOS.
It will not survive any more of Gordon Brown's rescues.
David Moss, London, UK
Soros and Buffet only invest in businesses they understand-it seems to work for them...
The Treasury investing in the Banks seems to contradict this.
I totally agree that the old arrangement whereby the BOE was the last resort worked well enough. Northern rock would never have happened........
John Emsley, Meillac, France
Members of 'talented' bank excecutives club, just move to another executive job and get more reward for failure.
Dave, Preston, UK
I thought the government made vast amounts available and there were no takers, or at least, it had no effect.
Neil Murphy, Cromer ,
Errm, as these so 'talented' bank excecutives have poisoned the worlds financial systems with their toxic investment packages, where are they going to go, and who would want them?
mark collins, reigate, uk