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From The Sunday Times

November 2, 2008

Victory may prove to be the easy part

Martin Ivens

America’s big four television networks aired a party political broadcast lasting 30 minutes on Wednesday at peak viewing time. This being the land of the free but no free lunch, the “informational” on Barack Obama was paid out of his war chest, the biggest in American history. No British-style equal time for John McCain, though many Americans could and probably did switch channels. Still, for a few minutes at least, millions caught it.

The broadcast bore the hallmarks of David Axelrod, the artful operator who has made a career out of marketing black candidates to white voters. In his tried and tested winning formula, Obama was sold as the opposite of “the angry black man” of white racist nightmares. He was cool, reassuring and reasonable.

On screen, Obama’s candidacy was endorsed by Eric Schmidt, chief executive of the hippest company on the planet, Google, while white military men lined up to give him the salute. The support of white role models is an important part of the Axelrod strategy. So is telling the voters that backing the black candidate puts them on the right, or rather the righteous, side of history.

Like the best advertising, some of the message rings true. Though it was too long, those who persevered to the end could not doubt that Obama is a class act: a first-rate Harvard intellect with a first-rate temperament. Franklin Roosevelt was accorded only the latter accolade.

As Axelrod’s colleague David Plouffe pulls in armies of volunteers and millions in contributions through the internet - I am getting up to four Obamamails a day and I don’t even live there - old professionals are slack-jawed at the most phenomenal campaign in US history.

Carl Wagner, Ted Kennedy’s campaign manager who also helped Clinton win his first victory in 1992, is gasping. “Last year if you had told me Obama was going to raise $700m and get 3m new donors I would have been inclined to call a mental hospital,” he says, aghast at the size of the Democratic candidate’s rallies in the heart of the old Confederate South.

Former senator Wyche Fowler, a veteran of one of the closest contests in postwar American history, can’t believe the size of Obama’s volunteer army in his home state of Georgia: “I’m predicting a landslide on Tuesday.”

But a landslide for what? The inexperienced Obama is a blank page on which half the country has written its hopes. Like new Labour in 1997 he preaches consensus healing. His campaign has succeeded through cautious restraint, his mantra of change allowing him maximum room for manoeuvre. The talk is a Republican titan will head defence or the State Department.

Obama’s ability to “redeem” or heal America has been widely overhyped by the liberal media. Like Tony Blair, will inexperience mean he is similarly slow to learn to use the levers of power? Abroad, he has already been greeted as a hero though he will soon be tested. The weight of expectations is almost too great. If organisation and money are the criteria for success, the Democratic candidate is set to win big. Certainly, large sections of the Republican party believe it. They have already begun their acrimonious “Who lost 2008?” debate. They call to mind those shrill, ugly Tories who lost in 1997 and blamed the electorate.

Brave souls defy conventional wisdom and point to narrowing opinion polls. Their last rallying cry is the Democratic candidate’s alleged socialism. “Spreading the wealth around might become the epitaph for his candidacy,” whistles Dick Morris, a Republican spin doctor. The McCain camp plays up the memory of Truman’s famous surprise victory over Dewey in 1948 to whip up last-minute support.

A month ago McCain had a 20-point lead on Iraq and was giving the Democrat more than a run for his money. And no wonder. His lobbying for a change of strategy led to General Petraeus’s surge, which reduced casualties and kept the country from falling apart. The surge was opposed by Obama. When Russia invaded Georgia in August, McCain sounded the alarm while his opponent was lost for words.

But ever since the financial giant Lehman Brothers crashed, the economy has become the big issue. There was already discontent. Despite America’s increased prosperity, middle incomes have ceased to rise according to received opinion (though many economists dispute it). The past 12 months have seen stagnation. The past two months have been a disaster. The mass in the middle or at the bottom have suffered an asset collapse as their retirement funds and house prices plummet and their jobs are in jeopardy.

Fear really is the key. Globalisation means that for the first time low-skilled American workers will be competing for jobs with low-paid workers in the Third World, putting downward pressure on their wages. The same global forces mean the skills of the West’s managerial and entrepreneurial classes are better rewarded. The rich get richer and, unlike Warren Buffett, the investment sage now advising Obama, not all of them have worked hard to get it.

Obama proposes tax rises on families earning more than $250,000 a year. The effect could soon be felt across the Atlantic. Labour’s left and the Liberal Democrats have long called for higher rates of tax on incomes over £100,000. Now they will no longer feel out of time.

“I think I will know what Obama will do if elected - he will send me a $1,000 cheque unless I am in the top 5% of the country,” says David Frum, a despairing apostle of modernising conservatism. “McCain’s message on the economy is more complicated. First the economy is fine, then it’s crisis, then. . .”

McCain’s campaign has no central argument, laments another disappointed supporter, David Brooks. “His proposals don’t add up to more than the sum of their parts.” He has run a campaign based on biography. That has compelled him to discuss the inadequacy of his opponent’s, but negative campaigning hurts both the target and the person who does it. McCain, the least partisan candidate in years, has allowed himself to be portrayed as a rightwinger chained to religious fundamentalists.

The right’s fear - and the message of their final appeal to the voters - is, in the words of Minnesota’s Governor Tim Pawlenty, that the elections will create a “runaway train”. A Democratic president urged on by a House of Representatives with a bigger Democratic majority and a Democratic Senate with a filibuster-breaking 60 seats could end the conservative era inaugurated by Ronald Reagan 30 years ago and go on to make fundamental changes to the economy.

Speaking about the $700 billion government bailout of the banks, Frum argues: “This concentration of financial and government power is very dangerous. It is better to have it in the hands of a limited government man - a message I haven’t heard from McCain.

“Do you want the government to tell the lending companies how to lend? Do we want to see the government saying to banks we look more favourably upon your application for credit if you lend in the right regions, if you have a bigger minority lending programme or do manufacturing in the United States? These are preferences already inserted into tax law.”

Exaggerated fears or no (and Obama has latterly surrounded himself with experienced economic advisers), the Democrat’s promises to unions and zeal for regulation frighten capitalists. The absence of tough rules has hurt capital-ism but imposing suffocating rules will kill the golden goose.

The momentum of Obama’s vast campaign and the economic crisis in the US will mean many naturally sceptical folk will cheer a likely Obama victory on Tuesday. When Axelrod goes home to Chicago, it will be up to the candidate to prove the campaign wasn’t the message but the beginning of something better.

Its not all to do with experience! After all everyone has to start somewhere. He will have a fresh view on things which will be good for America after Bush who was just ... Bush.

Ross , Glasgow, UK

Sir! You try and run for Presidency of what is still the most powerful country! Or shall we just leave you waxing lyrical? We shall see!

Mark, London, UK

I will be happy if he treads gently upon Israel's neck a little harder than the previous incumbent, and I think he just might.

John Wood, Uxbridge, UK

Am so happy to here that the president of America is a black, from the east of African where I am now Uganda,Kenya and Tanzania we have to congratulate we Africans. It is so great and i say that when God say yes no one can say NOOOOOOOO.

I LOVE AFRICA AND THE PEOPLE OF AFRICA LONG LAST AFRICA

NDAGIRE, KAMPALA, UGANDA

Governing and experience in foreign policy should not be too
difficult for a man of excellent academic background like Barack Obama, who also has the common touch having been
a former social worker. Furthermore, Mr. Biden will be an asset to him in foreign policy matters.

lena, vienna, austria

Just as a question what has the Democratic party done with Joe Biden? It seems that for the last couple of weeks or so they've kept him sequestered at an unknown location. Perhaps that's because the press began to notice that every time he spoke he contradicted Mr. Obama. Good luck Joe!

John Corkery, Calgary, Canada

I was surprised that Mr. Ivens failed to mention Mr. McCain's patronizing and purely political pick of a woman who, although she may be governor of Alaska, is one of the least intellectually curious and least knowledgeable of any possible president in American history. She is a disaster for McCain.

Michael Johnson, Tucson, Arizona, USA

Neither Obama nor McCain have governing experience (Sarah Palin, anyone?). Odds favor Obama, and if he wins, the American people will once again show their guts, their courage and their internal strength which has defined the nation since its inception.

Sarah Van Voorhis, San Francisco, CA, USA

Will turkeys really vote for Christmas ?

I cannot quite believe that Americans will vote for a tax raising protectionist in the middle of a recession. America is great due to its economic and political freedom. Obama will reduce both by taxation, redistribution and political correctness.

Luis, London, UK

It's all very Blair-1997. The electorate opting out of an intellectually exhausted political theory buoyed up by vague hope. But elections are about selecting the most plausible candidate; out of Huckabee, Romney, Edwards, Clinton, Giuliani and McCain, Obama clearly is best of what's on offer.

Gus Swan, London, UK

Obama: a man who has espoused principles upon which America was founded; cynicism aside, there is an idealist movement extant in the U.S. Let the Republicans crow; there will be no more fascism! I hope that all of Europe uderstands that "I lift my lamp beside the golden door" are not empty words.

William, Sugar Land, USA

Well done!
You have shaken another clutch of whack-jobs out of the trees.
The only American-owned business currently on the upswing is gun-purchase. The paranoid are buying Uzis and AR 14s, they are convinced another ban on assault weapons is on the horizon.

adrian, Annapolis, USA

After two train-wreck terms of George Bush, it'll be a relief to have somebody like Obama (calm, thoughtful, intelligent) in the White House. The last President who had a CV practically identical to Obama's was Lincoln. He did OK, I think, and Obama will, too.

Scott, Fairfax, USA

Palin and McCain are running second in all of the polls, but they will win! All people who think they are not going to win should take a look at the results tomorrow. The polls are superseded by results.

William, Sugar Land, USA

Obama 331; McCain 207.

Don't forget that Sarah Palin is not qualified to be governor of Alaska, nor mayor of Wasilla, nor coach of the girls' soccer team, nor a participant in any of her dreams or nightmares. McCain can claim nightmares; common sense, no.

William, Sugar Land, USA

"Informational'? It's called an infomercial in the States.

Allison, Peterborough, USA

Obama will drag America down, Into a socialist state.
There are thousands who wants no part of him...
He is the most liberal man who has ever ran for president.

jj ford, beebe, united states

When it comes to specifics all Obama has to give is blank stares. Due to his inexperience he will rely heavily on Pelosi and Reid, a puppet if you will. Two partisan ideaologically motivated liberals.

Terry, Tulsa, US of A

What is it about jounalists that iritates?

Instead of giving genuine comment they make a statement against the odds so that if chance proves hem right they can take the credit and if proved wrong nobody remembers.

We would like some genuine insight please!

james, shaftesbury , UK

the premise that obama is inexperienced, and a blank slate(!), are dead wrong. he been much clearer on policy than mccain. if anything mccain seems to be a blank slate that people choose only out of fear obama. my expectations of him are these: competence, honesty, centrism ... no more.

erwin, charlottesville, virginia

If Obama can solve any part of America's current set of economic or moral problems, he will go down in history as one of America's greatest presidents. But that will be the greatest difficulty, Only a great man would be able to resolve the issues. Time will tell.

MargZebarth, Kemptville, Ontatio , Canada

I don't know what all the hullabaloo about Obama's inexperience is about. What experience does McCain have of being a president? i think the hype is getting out of hand and let's all get ready to see someone come to the White house with some freshness.

Victor Amadi, Abuja, Nigeria

'Experience',as a general rule, is an excuse for doggedly repeating the same mistakes.If the foundation is not right,no 'experience brickwork' will stand.Lincoln had little experience.Hope,however mystical,is a very powerful motivator in the human psyche - as Gandhi and Churchill demonstrated.

Keith R, Dalsland, Sweden ex pat

The economic collapse we are experiencing is not new. Anyone over the age of 35 must certainly remember how the recycled policies of Ronald Reagan caused the wealthy to become wealthier and the poor poorer. We've seen already that trickle down economics have failed us. Mccain's party's era is over

Christopher Watts, Boston, United States

What experience does McCain have...voting with Bush 90% of the time. Does getting shot down and captured during a war make you qualified to be President. I would say NO! Obama has the intelliect and the ability to work with experts to make the best decisions for the US and that is why he will win

Whitney Hamrick, Jacksonville, FL , USA

If Obama's the man then his role is to keep the country together as the US economy falls apart.

At best he's a one hit wonder, a one term president.

The US faces two choices, it collapses the dollar and prints money or undergoes a painful period of government driven austerity.

Chelyabinsk, Bromley, Kent

Obama has incurred the wrath of America's most powerful lobby, the National Rifle Association. According to my copy of the "American Riflemen"' Obama will limit my gun purchases to one a month. Real Americans cannot live with that. They will reject Obama and his assault on the constitution.

Eve De Harben, Hicksville, USA

Barack Obama's inexperience is not a big deal. He is far more experienced than the Spanish politicians and Monarch who brought democracy, in a very smoothly and exemplary manner, to a country, Spain, which had been ruled by a dictator for thirty six years. He will make history in very many ways!

Ruth Bousoño, Madrid, Spain

Obama will drive an American restoration. In good time, we will once again see that shining light on the hill, that glowing torch in the harbor, that open door to the neighbors, and follow that American Dream.....

Obama has been challenged much in life and succeeded. He will succeed for the USA.

Paul Stewart, Toronto,

you have no clue what a golden goose would look like
to the average american...

so take a hike mate...you're not welcome here.

craig sparks, lincoln, usa

He may be inexperienced, but his moral compass is set in the right direction. Bush/Cheney/McCain and their friends are morally corrupt, stealing from the working class who elected them and feeling no remorse for their greed or abuse of power. Obama knows right from wrong and the US needs that now.

George Haig Brewster, New York City, USA

Millions will go to the polls, take a deep breath, and vote for something completely different.

Obama 396
McCain 142

It won't be close at all.

Charles, Washington, DC, USA

Experience is worthless if you learn nothing from it. Obama is very knowledgeable. McCain has lost all my respect. He is the one who will do and say "anything to win."

Linda Culpepper, Benton, USA

I have a strongly held fear that the election will go to mccain and that Obama will be dismissed because of his race. fear will win not hope!

Ash , Norwich, england

I just hope that Barack Obama wins the
American Election. For if Mccain/Palin do win the election I fear for the people of America and eventually the people of this world.

Rainer Teichert, Poole, u

I am locked, loaded and ready to vote for Barack Obama this Tuesday.

Robert, Los Angeles, Calif / USA

This newspaper has always promoted democracy.

So it will respect the decision of the American people.

Even if it is, in its opinion, misguided.

If fear rules, then McCain will win.

If hope rules, then Obama will win.

I'm not sure who will win if calm judgement rules.

Rhys Jaggar, Leeds, UK

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