Gordon Brown went to bed in No 10 on Thursday night thinking the party had
done well in the key Glenrothes by-election, but not well enough to win. He
was ecstatic when he awoke on Friday to the news that Labour had triumphed.
With a new spring in his step, he bounded down the steps to greet his
smiling staff and went into the morning press conference beaming. Friday was
a glad, confident morning in Downing Street. But will there be many more
such happy awakenings for the prime minister?
In October 2007, his three-month honeymoon came to a rude end. The botched
election call that month did for him. Stung badly by the sudden whiplash,
his and No 10’s confidence plummeted. The dithering over Northern Rock, his
failure to sign the European Union treaty with the other EU leaders and,
most seriously, the 10p tax fiasco depressed his standing still further. The
disastrous local and mayoral elections in May 2008 saw Labour’s share of the
national vote sink to 24%, its lowest level for half a century. Defeat in
the Crewe and Nantwich and Glasgow East by-elections, both safe seats, added
further to his woes. The cabinet and the party were close to open revolt.
He was hopelessly unfit for the top job and most, including me, concluded he
would have to go. The only question was when.
Then the wheel turned. It began in August, with Brown’s first proper break for
nearly a year. He had faced intense periods as chancellor, but only for a
few days and they were followed by periods of respite. Constitutionally and
temperamentally, he is not best suited to relentless pressure; No 10 has
taken note and built in more down time for him to unwind.
Relaxing with his family over the summer, he knew it was now or never. He
planned the reshuffle, decided on changes in Downing Street and mapped out a
conference speech that would present him as an authentic and strong figure.
For almost a year he had dithered, startled like a rabbit in the headlights
before forces he could not control. Now he decided he would take charge.
When the expected onslaught resurfaced in early September, he was ready. He
faced the first open calls for a fresh leadership election and several
resignations, the first from Siobhain McDonagh, a junior whip, but he stood
firm. The party was not ready to unseat him yet; but he was still far from
being in the clear.
A new tone was audible in late September in his conference speech, aided by
his wife Sarah’s surprise introduction. But it would take more than his
carefully sculpted oration setting out why the party still needed him, and
offering his centre-left vision for the future, to save him.
The credit crunch, which was breaking during the Manchester conference, was
decisive. It emboldened him at last to set out his own stall. Ever since he
became prime minister, the intellectual climate had been against government
regulation and in favour of tax cuts.
Almost overnight the crisis changed the terms of the discourse in favour of
managed capitalism, with government having a vital role to play. This was
the mood music he needed. More telling still, at last he was dealing with
issues over which he had mastery. His response showed to all that he was the
most knowledgeable leader in Britain and one of the most experienced figures
on the world stage. Daily, his confidence recovered.
Not since Tony Blair’s first period in office from 1997 to 2001 had he been so
much in command of his material and so obviously relishing his job. He had
been pretty unimpressive and reactive in his last six years as chancellor in
2001-7, and his initial period as prime minister had an air of unreality.
But this was real.
Exploiting his new-found strength, Brown unleashed his most audacious move, a
radical cabinet reshuffle. The headline was the return of Peter Mandelson,
his one-time closest ally but his mortal enemy over the past 14 years. It
was a masterstroke and showed that he was prepared to put aside the
hypersensitivity that had characterised so much of his previous political
life. Instantly it removed the venom from Blairites and others. Since then
not a squeak of discontent has been heard from John Hutton, Hazel Blears,
David Miliband or James Purnell, nor from the older statesmen such as Geoff
Hoon and Jack Straw. The silence is uncanny.
Bringing back Mandelson also allowed him to draw on Mandelson’s political
genius; in the past few weeks he has shot straight into Brown’s inner
sanctum alongside Ed Balls, Shriti Vadera and the increasingly visible Sarah
Brown. At the same time Brown reorganised No 10, adopting an “open office”
plan in place of the impossibly inefficient warren of corridors and small
rooms that had bedevilled every prime minister since Lloyd George. Stephen
Carter and the divisive Damian McBride were sidelined, and in came Liam
Byrne to help Tom Watson impose order and coherence on the No 10/Cabinet
Office machine. Rearranging the deckchairs? Maybe. But the quality of advice
to Brown in Downing Street has never been higher.
The tide may continue to flow in Labour’s direction for several months ahead.
For a full two months Brown has shown the country that he can shape events
rather than passively reacting to them. The intellectual climate looks set
to favour government intervention. Brown’s team sees Barack Obama’s victory
in the United States as further indication that the progressive left is in
the ascendancy. David Cameron and the Conservative party, who had been
riding high for almost a year, have suddenly appeared vulnerable. Neither
Cameron nor George Osborne, his shadow chancellor, have offered a credible
or consistent response to the crisis, while Osborne’s past has reawoken
concerns about the Tories being out of touch and associated with sleaze.
Cameron’s performance in parliamentary questions last week offered little sign
that he was bouncing back. Labour has ruthlessly exploited the failure of
opposition parties to come up with a clear alternative on the economy and to
make their punches land. If Brown flirts with tax cuts for the low-paid it
could further unsettle the Tories. Not for many months has Labour confidence
been as high as it is this weekend. Will the euphoria last?
The past year has seen violent swings of fortune. The wheel could turn again.
Labour believes the opposition will be unable to find a compelling argument
before the general election for dealing with a post-crunch world. The Tories
will need to dig deep into their talent pool to mount a convincing
fightback.
Yet history shows that the Conservatives’ ability to recover power, as in
1951, 1970 and 1979, is unrivalled. An almost unprecedented electoral
recovery will be needed if Labour is to win the election, which is unlikely
before the early summer of 2010. The latest YouGov poll still has Labour
nine points adrift of the Conservatives. Talk of Brown calling an early
election is absurd: no serious figure in No 10 is talking about it. Once
bitten . . .
Three critical questions stand out: will the current Labour unity hold; what
happens when the Tories recover their voice; and how will Brown cope when
the immediate economic crisis is over and the daily news is of economic
woes? The general election is still likely to see a Tory victory with a
majority of 20-30, but only a fool would now write off a Brown victory
entirely.
“Game on” is the mood in No 10 this weekend. The economic crisis ensured
Obama’s victory. Last week showed that it may yet give Brown a fighting
chance.
Anthony Seldon is writing a book about Gordon Brown’s reign at No 10
