John Major
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Sixteen years ago an economic gale blew away a vital part of my economic strategy; now, a more comprehensive storm has undone the entire economic strategy of the Labour Government.
In the days of the late-lamented Prudence, the Chancellor of the Exchequer at the time, promised an end to “boom and bust”. As Prime Minister that promise must haunt Gordon Brown, for he knows that - as Chancellor - he was culpable for the domestic circumstances that contribute to our dire economic plight.
Who ignored the debt spiral as it built up? Who weakened regulation and allowed Northern Rock to offer 125 per cent mortgages? Who diminished Bank of England control over our banking system? Who wrecked final-salary pensions with a £5 billion-a-year tax levy? Who ignored the risks of the house price and equity boom? A glance in the mirror shows him the culprit.
The Prime Minister admits to none of this but asserts that our present woes are due entirely to “an international crisis begun in America”. He repeats this mantra so often that he may have come to believe it. But no one else should. A large part of the crisis now engulfing us is home-grown in the Treasury and No10. The UK would be facing recession and a house price collapse without any international dimension. New Labour has as much financial blood on its hands as any erring banker on either side of the Atlantic.
Last year, at the Mansion House, the Prime Minister spoke of “an era that history will record as the beginning of a new golden age for the City of London”. Nemesis must have smirked. Within months there was the first run on a UK bank for 100 years, and the collapse of Northern Rock. Since then, the taxpayer has been called upon repeatedly to rescue our once-secure banking system.
Yet ministers foresaw nothing of what was building up and, to judge by their inaction, understood even less. Their failure to do so is one reason the future is bleak for so many who did not profit from the boom, but will surely suffer from the bust.
House prices are falling at the fastest rate since records began. Every home is losing value, but the plight of the elderly is especially heart-rending. Many who planned to boost their retirement income by trading down to release a cash nest egg have had their hopes dashed. The soon-to-retire face a double whammy: not only has the value of property fallen, but their pension funds - already weakened by tax levies - have also been cut in value by 30 per cent or more.
Hundreds of thousands of elderly people did everything possible - without state benefits - to secure their future. Now, the crisis cut in interest rates is likely to reduce their income even further.
At the heart of the troubles is debt. Debt has been this Government's biggest growth industry. Annual borrowing - even at the beginning of the recession - is at record levels: no comparable country is in a worse position.
When Mr Brown claims that national debt is lower than many such countries, he is being less than candid. He knows he is excluding long-term liabilities such as £100 billion of private finance debt, our unfunded public sector pensions and the debts of Network Rail and Bradford & Bingley. Once these are taken into account, our true debt is nearly three times higher - at a shocking £76,000 for every household. The figures the Government uses to reject the charge of financial incontinence are as bogus as a fourpenny bit.
Personal debt, too, has risen to levels never before seen - up by 70 per cent in a single decade. It is now the highest of any leading economy: higher as a proportion of income than any G7 country has seen. The Labour Government wallowed in the feel-good factor of this easy money: it made it popular, won elections, so Labour let it rip. The IMF tried - repeatedly - to warn Tony Blair and Mr Brown of the dangers ahead, only to be told it was “mistaken” and “wrong”. It was not.
Mr Brown glosses over these errors. The UK, he claims, is better placed than most to deal with the crisis. But, if the IMF is correct, that is yet another juicy piece of fiction: it believes the UK will suffer the deepest recession of any leading nation. The collapsing value of sterling suggests it is not alone in that view.
Faced with a blizzard of debt and a recession, the Government summons the ghost of J.M. Keynes and hints at further mega-borrowing, although whether this is for spending or tax cuts is not yet clear.
This would be folly. Some distress borrowing is inevitable - recession will cut tax revenue and increase social expenditure - but if the Government appropriates Keynes to justify further massive public spending, it will be making a fatal error.
What, then, to do? Most importantly, monetary policy has been eased. Beyond that, experience of the last recession makes me cautious. There is no pain-free way forward from the mess we are in. My heart says “yes” to tax cuts; yet my head tells me that, if we pile debt upon debt, there will be a painful day of reckoning. Today's unfunded tax cut is tomorrow's tax increase. We are not in a 1930s-style slump, nor do I believe we will be. It may be unpopular to say so, but we should be wary of mortgaging the future with even more debt.
For 11 years Mr Brown has claimed personal credit for the economy that Labour inherited but the Conservatives created: “We have had the longest period of growth in the history of this country,” he says, conveniently forgetting that the first five years of this growth came under the last Conservative Government.
As Mr Brown heads towards Washington, in his self-appointed role as economic czar to the wider world, there will no doubt be a spring in his step. But come the next general election the public will not be so easily fooled, or forgiving.
As with every Labour Government we have known, its legacy will be a wrecked economy that - yet again - will take years to mend.
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Excellent article. Why isn't this broadcast from every roof top? No terrorist group could do a better job than the past and present Labour Government. No wonder it needs so desparately ID cards and an ID register and a multitude of new laws to control every British citizen.
Helga Hanson, Ostrach, Germany
Well put John, but just the start! The pound is now heading for parity with the Euro, its recent strength has ignored fundamentals. Although no technical reason will exist, it will be deemed time to join, so HMG avoid the embarrassment of the pound going sub-Euro. Yet another sell out beckons.
Steve Buckel, Braunau-am-Inn, Austria
All mr Major says is quite true, but we did not hear him say all this BEFORE the crash. So we must assume that he did not see it coming any more than the rest of us.
Perhaps he bought gold and commodities then sold both last summer early on. What we all need to know is what we can do to prosper now
Richard Stead, Acharacle, Scotland
Some very interesting comments but nobody has mentioned the complete vacuum at the top of the Tory party. When the last Labour government went broke (as have they all) we had the Great Thatcher. The present leadership is lightweight in the extreme. They have no credibility. I speak as a Tory.
Jim Cavanagh, Chorley, Lancashire
This article by John Major is a must-read for anyone who cares about this country and brilliantly gives a potted history of how the government got us in this mess.His role as both a banker and Prime Minister gives him unique insight into our present woes and Mr Brown should listen and learn.
michael southcott, northampton,
I happened to read Mr. Major's rant while waiting, and waiting, for a train - so I was in no mood to accept a lecture on sound economics from the man responsible for PRIVATISING the railways. How much has that cost this country, in both money and LIVES? He should slink away in shame.
dennis mahoney, camborne, uk
100% correct, Mr Major. My eternal frustration is that the current Tory opposition has not aggressively exposed the totally bogus 'Chancellor to the World' image that Gordon Brown is trying to create. Gordon Brown needs to be ruthlessly exposed as the worst Chancellor that the UK has ever had.
Nicholas, London, London
So, why isn't the current conservative leader hammering the same points home in parliment?
Colin Whitehead, Sydney, Australia
When governments make mistakes or economies break down during a government's watch it is our responsibility to criticise them, and, if the troubles are severe enough (which they undoubtedly are) vote them out at the next election. This is what maintains a strong democracy.
Chris James, Swansea, Wales
Brown was waffling away about the national debt the other week. I didn't believe it.
I had hoped that some some in the Conservative Party would seize this "own goal" and David Cameron would challenge Brown over this "bobbins" at PMQ's. Alas not.
Well done, Mr Major.
Rob, Eindhoven, Netherlands
Thomas Fuller I sincerely hope you are correct. An excellent well-argued article. DC should pin it to the wall.
Ian Burgess, Bristol,
John Major, and many others, are absolutely right to highlight the truth about Britain's debt, quite regardless of anything that anyone tries to point out about his own record in office. Whatever he did or did not achieve, the brutal truth is that Britain's debt is, well, brutal.
Brett, Chorley, Lancs
spot on. So why isn't Cameron saying this?
Before we can boost the economy with tax cuts or extra public spending we need to pay down debt and let house prices return to their historic levels of about 20% below where they are now. Painful but necessary.
Mick, Leeds,
Poiliticians and Regulators must be punished !
Their pension and perks must be cut by 30% at least.
They should share the burden they brought on us by taking incompetent and selfish decissions.
Gekko, London, UK
Things will be much worse come the next election , then we'll see whose setting the records . Labour have devalued just about everything they have touched , not just the pound . Majors position previously actually puts him in the perfect position to comment , as he has been there , done that .
Benzo, Nr Chelmsford,
I wonder when he says about the future being as bleak as he mentions, I believe we are in total freefall and our economy and our jobs, pensions, and our lives are at total risk of being controlled by a few.
Day by day, its gets worse and worse.
This govt needs to be removed.
walter, leeds, england
Everyone was to blame. The 1970s unions and management which bankrupted us. The unemployment of the 1980s. The refusal to see North Sea oil as a one-off golden egg and hence save the money as an endowment fund. New Labour thinking economics didn't apply to them.
We just aren't responsible.
Rhys Jaggar, Leeds, UK
major suffers from guilt since 1997 and hence his latter-day role as a "rent a quote" figure for the "tory boys in short trouers"has it really come to this in pursuit of the ultimate redemption?how much more demeaning can it get ?why not clarke/hesseltine?because major has always been patronised.
john small, canterbury, uk
It pains me to think that the current Tory oppostition have not made more effort to highlight to the electorate Gordon Browns role in this mess. Are people in Britain really that naive that they believe GB's rhetoric without question? Gordon Houdini seems to have escaped the wrath he so deserves!
Stuart, London,
John Major giving advice on economics is like listening to the captain of the Titanic give advice on sailing round icebergs.
Black Wednesday, 16% interest rates, record repossessions, record unemployment, wastelands of: Liverpoo; Sheffield; Coventry etc, and yes record debt. Where shall we begin?
Ian, London, UK
£76,000 for every household. Is that how much we owe?
I don;t believe it!
That is bigger than my mortgage. I've been trying to keep my debts down to manageable levels and they do this to me.
Humph.
Sue Doughty, Twyford, UK
If we were truly free Englishmen the role of the state would be so small as not too matter, sadly after a century of growing govt control , now in every tiny space of our private lives, we are nothing but a serf to an all power master. When did we lose our self respect, when did we become slaves ?
Gavin, London, GB
Brown has done more damage to the British Economy than the Luftwaffe.
Jeremy, London, England
Mr Major's criticisms are quite right, if characteristically understated. But who elected this Labour government and its two predecessors? British voters, who still want something for nothing and are prepared to buy the Brooklyn Bridge over and over. Only con men have a chance to win elections now.
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
Er...is this the same J Major who was anointed by Thatcher as her successor, after the squalid 1980s economic policies, and who admitted that on Black Wednesday, 1992, he and his Chancellor , Lamont, ' did not know what we were doing ' ?
Perhaps he,and his supporters, should keep a low profile ?
Fred, Droitwich, UK
I can remember when I was made redundant three times, and our house reduced in value by one third in 7 months. My husband was self employed in the shopfitting industry and so many companies folded, he was out of work for 2 years. That was under the '80s Tory induced recession, not a global one.
Val Daniels, Mijas Costa, Spain
John Major is right. He was pilloried for his errors by the media. I am surprised at how gently the media are treating the much more catastrophic policy errors of Brown and the BoE. They failed in their job of looking ahead, both on the way up and the way down, behind the curve in both directions.
Robert Cookson, Milton Keynes, UK
This is the best piece I have ever seen from John Major. His appraisal of the situation and whom to blame is spot on.
Would recommend that all BBC and other media personnel read this article. When they have they may start clamouring again for Brown's resignation. That would help the pound.
Harry H, London, UK
Doesn't anybody remember how incompetent the Major government was? They had a policy of cripplingly high interest and exchange rates, ruining the economy. Things only turned round when they fouled up so much they had to do exactly the opposite. Major was, is and always will be, a waste of space.
Sam C, Shrewsbury, England
Easy to criticize isn't it? Avoid the blame game and as Ghandi said: Be the change you want to see in the world.
Alan, Frankfurt, Germany
Yes, you are right. We have had the boom, now we have the bust - all under Mr Brown. And as is usual of the megalomaniac, he prances around claiming he made the good times but others are responsible for the bad times. Arguably the worst PM ever. At least John Major was elected.
Tone, cambridge,
But will Gordon Brown ever admit, even to himself, that he is responsible?
An honourable person would.
Peter, London,
I commend John Major (JM) for the clarity of his analysis of Brown's role in the current financial mess . I would urge JM to work closely with the Conservative leadership in the run up to the next general election, since his wisdom should be invaluable to the youthful David Cameron.
Simon Jones, DUNDEE, UK
I agree, but I don't think that it would have made any difference which party had been in charge over the last 10 years. Britain has fundamental problems that the electorate dont want to fix.
graham, Stoke-on-Trent, UK
Is this the same John Major who won the 1992 Election by promising Tax Cuts Year on Year, a promise he knew was impossible to keep? If Labour squandered the Tories Golden Legacy, who squandered Thatcher's Economic Miracle in three years and gave us a second Tory Recession in twelve years?
Arthur Atkins, Basingstoke, england
Mr Major seems not to be the only one to have conveniently forgotten that we have had a number of recessions and financial panics under Conservative governments, including one fiasco whilst he was Prime Minister. Let's not let history get in the way of such bare-faced revisionism.
Paul, Glasgow,
John Major is to be applauded for exposing Gordon Brown's repeated lying. Its only a pity that the media and the Opposition have failed in this task.
Bruce Burniston, Swansea, UK
Labour will not only leave a wrecked economy but also a broken society. It is absolutely appalling what they have done to this country and yet some stupid, stupid people actually believe BOOM BUST BROWN's rhetoric. We are £2 trillion in debt which is 150% of GDP. We are bankrupt as a nation.
Richard , Nottingham,
It speaks volumes that an ex-PM from way back feels the need to set out the case against Gordon Brown.
Eileen Critchley, Little Hampton, UK
yet again Mr Major you prove yourself one of the better leaders this country has had. Pity your Party was busy shafting itself over the euro and slease at the time as otherwise we'd have not got into this mess in the first place
stan, london,
Of course there will rightly be some criticism of Tory economic management (which was far from spectacular) during the '80s and early '90s. But all the critics out there must submit to reality - no matter how bad the Tories were/are, the alternative have been an absolute nightmare.
James, Newcastle,
Echo others here - glad someone is saying what a large number are thinking. Labour blew its biggest oppportunity to, for once, leave a legacy of a strong economy.
As usual, it will be up to the Conservatives to clear up the mess.
Jason Harcourt, Hounslow,
Steve, London I agree entirely particularly your comments about Heath but Blair/Brown are also responsible for the repeated increase of EU interference in the UK.Brown is also responsible for welching on the NuLab Manifesto.But then he is solely out for himself - a nice sinecure in EU in due course
M. Cawdery, Portadown, Co. UK, EU Courtesy Brown
Re James Ray's comment about the Conservatives. I have lived through every Labour Government since the 1940's and each one left a wrecked economy. Heath's crew were appalling (including saddling us with The EU), but Thatcher proved the point of Major's last sentence.... 'will take years to mend."
Steve, London, UK
Well said Mr Major.
Duncan McGregor, St Mawes, UK
"House prices are falling at the fastest rate since records began." As a 30 year old professional used to paying over 400 pounds a month for a room in a houseshare, this is very good news indeed.
Phil, London,
Thank you John Major for this good analysis ,you and Mrs.T. were the greatest prime ministers in my working life in the UK
widiner, shanghai, china
Many good points until the last paragraph... Mr Major seems to forget that the Tories are equally capable of wrecking the economy.
James Wray, Leamington, UK
100% correct, Mr Major.
It is astonishing that Gordon Brown and his Government's central role in laying the foundations for this crisis is seemingly not yet widely recognised.
I am confident that in time history will identify and vilify the culprits, with this Government culpable to the hilt.
James Brooks, LONDON, UK
John - Thank goodness there's one Tory who's prepared to say it like it is.
Gordon Brown is responsible for destroying the UK economy with his tax, borrow and spend policies: and now he's planning to dig an even deeper hole in a desperate effort to win a General Election.
He must be stopped.
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
It's eery. Brown is Callaghan to Blair's Wilson: a short-term successor to a long-term Labour prime minister who left the economy in ruins.
Thomas Fuller, London,