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This could result in capital-rich countries such as Russia, China and Japan having to support the dollar – just as the US supported sterling in the 1950s. And that could lead to situations such as the Suez crisis, where members of Eisenhower’s Administration called Anthony Eden to tell him “unless you end your Egyptian adventures, we are going to sell our sterling assets”.
India and China have been on the wrong side of history for the past couple of centuries, but now, things are going their way. We cannot fight that. For Britain, the risk is that we react to this by withdrawing, by becoming more protectionist, more populist in our economics.
The same applies to Western Europe. For my company WPP, there is no point in continuing to invest in Western Europe unless structural changes are made. For example, if we win a piece of business, we have to bear the severance costs of the company that lost the contract.
Western Europe is like an ageing company with huge healthcare and pension liabilities that are difficult to fund. That is why admitting Turkey to the EU should be a no-brainer. It is the gateway to the Middle East, has a young population, is highly entrepreneurial and would be a huge boost to the EU’s 450 million people.
In the UK, all the changes that Margaret Thatcher made have gone. When I visit Scotland and Wales, and see the extent to which local jobs depend on the public sector, it shows we have lost all the progress made under her. Governments can invest plenty of money on retraining people but, unless we can change more aggressively, we will be unable to compete. We are back where we were in the 1960s and 70s.
The exception to all of this is America. People wrote off the US in the 1980s and said that Japan would take over the world. But then along came Ronald Reagan. He changed the dynamics. What the world really needs right now is leadership in the Reaganite, Thatcherite, Blairite mould to lead us out of this crisis.
Mr Obama could be that person. I look at Barack Obama and it takes me back to when I was 18, to when John F. Kennedy was elected. Mr Obama is young, smart, a wonderful orator and represents a new hope, a new era. JFK was just the same and he changed the attitudes of my generation. That’s what the world needs now from Mr Obama.
Sir Martin Sorrell is chief executive of the media company WPP
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