Wei Jingsheng
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The whole world is suffering from an economic crisis. Some in the West, like a desperate drowning man clutching at a straw, have said the Chinese Government has a lot of money, let us beg them to save us from the crisis. But they do not realise that the Government in Beijing does not know how to save itself.
China has a $2 trillion foreign currency reserve but it also suffers from a huge disparity between the rich and poor: while 0.4 per cent of the people hold 70 per cent of the wealth of the country, a fifth of the population - more than 300 million Chinese - have daily incomes of less than one dollar. This extreme concentration of wealth is a serious problem for the Chinese Government and threatens its grip on power.
First, it means that there are too few consumers to sustain a domestic market. So “the workshop of the world” is particularly reliant on the fortunes of the world economy. The Chinese Government announced yesterday that exports had fallen at their fastest rate in a decade, declining by 2.8 per cent in December, on top of a 2.2 per cent year-on-year fall in November. China's exporters are collapsing, pulling down other businesses with them. The Government claims that unemployment is running at 4 per cent in urban areas; but the official figures cannot be believed. According to some serious statisticians, the unemployment rate may have already passed 20 per cent. This makes the severity of the economic crisis in China much sharper than in the US and Europe.
Second, growing unemployment and stagnant wages will stoke the rising resentment against the super-rich, threatening the position of the ruling class. The Government regards the tens of millions of peasant workers who will return to the cities after the Chinese holiday season to closed factories and no jobs as an urgent threat. Chinese peasants have a long tradition of rebellion.
Following in the footsteps of the US Government, the Chinese Government in November announced a four trillion yuan ($600 billion) public spending package to get the country out of the slump. But this won't work in China. Because China's Government is not elected by the people its policies are run on behalf of the bureaucratic-capitalist class. Instead of acting in the interests of ordinary Chinese, it will try to save the big business enterprises of the ruling elite. But the owners of these big businesses will simply move their assets to safety outside China.
The evidence can already be seen: from Los Angeles to the shores of Lake Geneva, China's super-rich are anxiously snapping up real estate, paying with cash. The more turmoil there is - as unemployment shakes the social order - the more capital will flee China. This will exacerbate the vicious cycle.
So the Chinese Government is trapped by a terrible dilemma. It can act to help ordinary Chinese (in the manner of Roosevelt's New Deal in the 1930s) or the bureaucratic-capitalist class. But it cannot do both.
If the Chinese Government does not take a New Deal approach, it risks the Chinese people revolting and overthrowing those in power. Across the country there is mounting evidence of popular discontent turning to violence. According to the Chinese Government there were more than 80,000 “sudden incidents” - its euphemism for protests - in 2006; it is now thought that last year the figure rose to 100,000. This rising tide of discontent is Chinese history repeating itself - the end of each dynasty was marked by a crescendo of violence.
Military suppression cannot work. Soldiers are the relatives of the peasant workers who have lost their jobs; the families of the military officers will also suffer through the economic crisis. But if the Chinese Government does act to protect the ordinary Chinese, the ruling class of big businessmen and bureaucrats will overthrow it, and replace it with a Government that will protect its interests.
The first scapegoat will be Wen Jiabao, the Prime Minister. While his tears, most famously seen after the Sichuan earthquake, could fool the average person, they will not fool the bureaucratic-capitalist class. His end is set, except for the timing of his departure.
China has seen many political coups within the ruling class. The most recent examples are from the 1970s. Lin Biao failed in his coup against Mao Zedong in 1971; while Hua Guofeng overthrew the Gang of Four and ended the Cultural Revolution in 1976. A political coup within the Communist Party could provide the temporary stability necessary to solve the economic crisis.
But if a solution is not found then the Government will fall. In a democracy, the end of a government is a normal event. However, in a dictatorship it is a matter of life or death. Since Hu Jintao, the President, and Wen took power, changing officials has become bloodier. As part of the political struggle for power more and more officials have been executed or sent to prison - usually under the cloak of punishing corruption. The internal conflict between the various vested interests within the Communist Party is getting bigger with each wanting to make the rival factions scapegoats.
From what I hear from people of all backgrounds from inside China they believe, 20 years on from the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, that time is up for the regime - they believe that in 2009 or 2010 the Chinese will reach the limit of their toleration for the Communist Party. One particular case sums up this mood of discontent: Yang Jia, a man who was executed last year for the murder of six policemen he killed as revenge for being beaten, became a symbol of resistance to many Chinese. He was hailed as a hero on many blogs, pro-Yang grafitti appeared across the country and crowds turned up at court to support him during his trial. The popularity of this man illustrates vividly the rebellious mood of the Chinese people. The intensity of this feeling far surpasses the resentment that was directed against Mao's Government in the 1970s or the corruption of the 1980s.
The people of modern China are different from their ancestors: they no longer expect a wise emperor and fair judges to rule over them. They know that only democracy will guarantee what they want: prosperity, security and fair treatment. The Chinese ruling class think this too - that's why they already send their children and their money to the West.
Wei Jingsheng was imprisoned by the Chinese State in 1979-93 and 1994-97 for his human rights activism. In 1997 he was deported to the United States. He was awarded the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought and the Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights Award in 1996
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Mr. Wei, you are a true patriot of China.
Jennifer, California, USA
Wei Jingsheng's opinion seems strangely out of date. Many Chinese people respect their government either because of its recent progress in most areas, or as a reflex reaction to constant western criticism.
Dom, London, UK
Wangchuk, New York, USA
What are you doing in USA? Are you a Tibetan exile? Why not go to Tibet & see for yourself. Do you not feel the heat of the US recession? Why not return to Tibet and help build a better Tibet & greater China for a brighter future. It will be better that way.
Lim , Johor Bahru, Malaysia
To: Lim, Malaysia
'Respect for elders'
Perhaps by being less respectful to the CCP elders then China will make progress for the whole population not just the wealthy middle class.
Bear in mind that China invaded independent Tibet by military force and still occupies that country illegally.
Colin, Carmarthen, United Kingdom
China will also face revolution in Tibet. Tibetans have never accepted Chinese rule as legitimate & have consistently struggled for freedom. Chinese colonialism in Tibet will eventually fail & Tibetans will again be free from imperialism.
Wangchuk, New York, USA
Colin, Carmarthen, UK asked: " Would you not prefer to be adults instead of children?".
Is it not the cycle of life? Birth - baby - child - adult - old age - death. You & I go through these stages. Please do not tell me Western people jump stage? To the Chinese, being respectful to elders is in.
Lim , Johor Bahru, Malaysia
Colin, Carmarthen, UK
I don't exaggerate. Even PE of US Obama wants to up the US space programes so that US will still dominate space. The fact that West continues to entertain Chinese dissidents & the Dalai Lama. The fact that the West is reluctant to share technology & continues to meddle.
Lim , Johor Bahru, Malaysia
Just wanted to say that representative democracy does not guarantee good governance and equally, a single-party government can still be a good government.
Compare China's classrooms to the UK's classrooms, for example.
Peter, UK,
To: Alex Mesh.
'People in China love their government.'
Yes like a child loves a father. That is the CCP way of things. But if that child disobeys then they will be punished. Is that not true? That was also the way of the Emperors!
Would you not prefer to be adults instead of children?
Colin, Carmarthen, United Kingdom
I am living in Beijing more than 2 years now. I can assure you that nothing will happen with chinese government in the near future. People in China love their government and the country. Many things changed since 1997 and the author can not be objective regarding this topic. Change is significant.
Alex Mesh, Beijing-Novosibirsk, Russia-China
To Colin Carmarthen UK.
During the time of the CCP we have seen the rise to the forefront of many Chinese Classical musicians.Prior to the recession many painters of this era have produced highly collectable artwork.
sam, Akld, New Zealand
Jim Wills - I agree, however the problem is how can a population be reduced, genocide? nuclear destruction?biological agent release (aka Twelve Monkeys) . Perhaps voluntary euthenasia as portrayed in the film Soylent Green to make food protein for the masses.
Richard, Glasgow,
The last thing the world needs is civil unrest in China. The 1.3 billion people would find, like Russia, their kind of democracy would be the rich grinding their heels in the faces of the poor. The average Russian does not wish for western democracy, look at it now,
vast wealth for the few
Phil de Buquet, Newport,
To: Lim, Malaysia.
You exaggerate. The West does not want to see China fall, just improve. Despite the mentioned 5,000 years of civilization, little real cultural progress has been made during the last 50 years. Everything of artistic and creative value in China dates from before communist rule.
Colin, Carmarthen, United Kingdom
The Chinese are pragmatic people, tuned to hardship and hard times. They had 5000 years of civilization & had learned the up & downs in life. To day, China is catching up & looks like the West is getting worried. It wants to see China fall so that it will continue to be dominant. Poor West..
Lim , Johor Bahru, Malaysia
The unemployment rate in China is sky high, most of the youngsters here are seeking post graduate studies, for there are no jobs for ungraduates, by the time they finish there are no jobs for PHDs. Education is the main business in China, the best any student can aspire to is become a teacher.
Tom, Taiyuan, China
To: Nick, Wuhan.
Why would you not participate in any kinds of protest? And why is it that Chinese young people have no teen culture of your own? Civilisations move forward by improvement through generations, bringing in new ideas and throwing out the old. You do that yourself, not by permission.
Colin, Carmarthen, United Kingdom
Education should come first than the power.
Chak, beijing, china
i am an undergaduate. i would not participate in any kinds of protest should there be a rebellion because Communist Party cannot be supplanted by other systems. would capitalism work in China? peasant rebelliions were lead by other classes and Hu is not a fool and he holds a good prestige in China.
Nick, wuhan, china
They don't need democracy here. They need education first otherwise the peasant class would just vote in another appealing despot and be back to square one again.
J.Feasey, Zhengzhou, China
As much as the party-members in charge of the university I work in have told me that 'Chinese people are not ready to talk about politics' I have found the opposite to be true. More confortable speaking in English than Chinese about their discontent, the majority hold their government to be 'wrong'
Rebecca Taylor, Nanjing, China
Whilst a democratic China is a laudable ideal, can such a large number of peole be governed democratically ? If it can, the resulting Democratic capitalism will only maintain or increase the huge wealth divide and things won't be much better for anyone apart from the small number of dissidents.
Mark, Hull, UK
I believe other Asian states will have similar concerns. Jobs are being lost in Vietnam and Tet bonuses are being withdrawn/reduced. The population still appears optimistic but this could change as the country starts to feel the full effects of the ripples caused by the crisis that started in the US
RV (expat), Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
I have lived in China for more than 5 years and I have met very few people in that time who want democracy, change or who disagree with the policies of the government. The vast majority of people i have met have been brainwashed their whole lives and blindly follow what they are told to think and do
Lee, Shanghai,
it seems so .
but allways it is very ridiculou.
how do such fool so many years?
.....
daisy Lee, shanghai, china
Of all the mistakes the West has made since the end of World War II, our failure to back the Kuomitang in the Chinese Civil War was one of the worst. Think how different (better) the world could look with a democratic China as a partner. Let us hope the Chinese are on the verge of toppling the CCP.
JD, Birmingham, UK
"From what I hear from people of all backgrounds from inside China they believe, ..., that time is up for the regime - they believe that in 2009 or 2010 the Chinese will reach the limit of their toleration for the Communist Party."
Interesting comment. It reminds me a lot of the Bush worldview.
Mike, Hong Kong,
Jim, I'm not sure what your Malthusian argument has to do with millions of Chinese being sick of corruption.
While wanting an increased level of freedom and wanting a McMansion, two cars and overseas holidays are not mutually exclusive, there is a difference which you seemed to have missed.
Julian, Perth, Australia
I agree with Jim. The population of the world when I was born was not much more than the population of China now. The various consequences of vast overpopulation, especially in that region, are beginning to be felt.
James, Melbourne, Australia
Centralisation is China's great difficulty. But that comes with the CCP and been the Chinese imperial way for centuries. Fragmentation is the way forward. Independent election of seperate government for each province. To a Chinese that must sound terrifying but is quite normal in other countries.
Colin, Carmarthen, United Kingdom
A very good article
Luke, China,
I would definitely suggest taking this analysis with a pinch of salt: in six months living in relatively poor rural China I have not seen or heard of any protests against the regime in this area. The idea that the "Communist" party is about to be overthrown is probably fanciful.
Jeremy, Gongyi City, China
An excellent article.
Mickey, Shanghai,
Superb article - perfectly encapsulates the situation here.
MarkChina, Beijing,
The planet earth does not hold enough natural resources to produce the goods needed to raise all the chinese peoples lifestyle and incomes to western levels. The cure to the chinese problem and also that of many countries including America and Britain is to reduce population levels rapidly.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia