I DON’T KNOW if Tony Blair will be reading this over the breakfast table, but I do know that for him the welcoming waters of the Caribbean will already seem a lifetime away.

His return to London on Friday came a few days after a particularly bleak opinion poll that saw support for Labour drop to a 19-year low alongside a 40 per cent rating for the Tories — the first time they have achieved this level since the month before Black Wednesday on September 16, 1992, the day that interest rates touched 15 per cent and sterling was pushed out of the exchange rate mechanism.

These poll findings triggered yet more speculation about the timetable for Mr Blair’s departure from Downing Street, and whether Labour needs to change its political direction of travel.

We should not read too much into one opinion poll. But it would be foolish not to recognise the difficulties that the Government has had over the past few months and acknowledge that this is being reflected in the polls.

I suppose it should come as no surprise that we are witnessing the disappointment, and at times disillusionment, that is part and parcel of being in government for a number of years. The challenge for us in the Labour Party is to identify how we can turn this round and bring together once again the broad coalition of electoral support that won three elections.

This will be make or break time for new Labour. The year ahead will set out Labour’s priorities for the next decade and, in so doing, the post-Blair agenda.

So why are the next 12 months of such importance? The Comprehensive Spending Review 2007 may sound as dry as dust and of interest only to a few anoraks in the Treasury. Yet nothing could be farther from the truth. It will involve a fundamental reconsideration of Labour’s priorities.

This will be a key moment in British politics because it will set out the boundaries and scope of the welfare state for the foreseeable future. Spending allocations for the remainder of this Parliament will be decided, and it will effectively write many of the key elements of Labour’s manifesto for the next general election.

A decade into office there are new challenges. People are far more ambitious for themselves, their family and the community in which they live. Labour has to respond to this by showing that it is as comfortable with enterprise and aspiration as it is with social justice and opportunity for all.

New ways will need to be found to improve social mobility so that hard work and talent are rewarded. Security will need to be given a greater priority so that we can fight global terrorism, stop identity fraud and ensure that people feel safe walking home at night. Democratic renewal is essential for both local and central government, and power needs to be devolved to empower local communities. We will need to create public services that match quality and standards in schools and healthcare with the record levels of investment in these areas.

The spending review represents both a challenge and an opportunity for Labour. It comes when there is growing concern among some in the party about the programme of modernisation and reform that is being put in place. Campaigns are being launched to halt the changes in their tracks. Questions are being raised about the values and principles that underpin the programme.

The challenge is to tackle these concerns head on and not try to avoid them. We have to explain that change is necessary to keep pace with the world in which we live, where people make greater demands and have higher expectations than before. More must be done to demonstrate that our values and principles are unchanged, but that we must be pragmatic and radical in their pursuit.

There will need to be a new process to allow this debate to take place. Just over ten years ago we considered the future of Clause Four of the Labour Party’s constitution. For many it was not an easy period, but we held our nerve and replaced Clause Four with a modern statement of aims and values.

Now as we approach our tenth year in government, and with the spending review taking place, this is the right time to return to the debate about the direction and political position of the party. The starting point will be the experience gained and lessons learnt since 1997. However, it is vital that it doesn’t dwell on the past, but looks to the future by identifying the challenges we face and how we can meet them.

This will give Labour the opportunity to renew itself in office; this will be crucial in order to secure future success. But we shall have to be clear what we mean by renewal. There will be some who try to use this as the chance to turn the clock back; to promote a set of priorities that plays to narrow, sectional interests rather than those that have a broad and popular appeal because they reflect the needs and aspirations of the British people.

That is why it is so important that we renew ourselves as new Labour. Many of our critics have failed to understand its strengths and appeal. It was never just a rebranding exercise but was a well-thought-out, robust and policy-dominated approach aiming to meet problems of our time with new solutions that remained true to the party’s long established values.

It would be a monumental mistake to abandon this highly successful approach. But voices in opposition are being raised. The time for coded criticism is over. This is the moment for an open and honest debate about the future direction of the Labour Party.

The author is Labour MP for North Tyneside.

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