Magnus Linklater
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The news from Scotland this morning must have hit Downing Street with the kind of shock that Macbeth experienced when he was told that Birnam Wood had begun to move in the general direction of Dunsinane. “Ring the alarum bell!” he cried, as he saw the fulfilment of the witches’ prophecies of doom. “At least we’ll die with harness on our back.”
Tony Blair may not have used quite those words, but the sentiment was much the same. If today’s Populus poll in The Times is to be believed — and it echoes a trend that is beginning to grow steadily harder — then Labour is about to lose political control of a country that, for more than 50 years, it has regarded as its heartland.
A 10 per cent lead by the Scottish National Party would give it a seven-seat majority in the Scottish Parliament, enabling its leader, Alex Salmond, to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, or to chance his arm and govern as a minority party. Either way it would be a savage blow for Labour, which has regarded itself as the natural party of government in Scotland for as long as most voters can remember. It would be a damning verdict on Mr Blair’s premiership, on Gordon Brown’s economic policies, and on the devolution experiment so far. The prediction once made by Lord Robertson of Port Ellen that devolution would “kill nationalism stone dead” has backfired spectacularly.
A few things need to be said right away. First, this is a poll, not the real thing — and the election campaign is yet to begin in earnest; secondly, it is very far from a clarion call for independence — only 27 per cent of those polled actually want Scotland to leave the United Kingdom; nor is it a rebuff for devolution itself — 52 per cent would like the Parliament to have more power, not less; and Mr Salmond, for all the high recognition he enjoys, wins no better ratings, at 27 per cent, than his rival, the First Minister, Jack McConnell.
This is, primarily, a stinging rebuff to Mr Blair, who has succeeded in winning for himself a level of unpopularity that has not been witnessed north of the Border since Margaret Thatcher introduced the poll tax; in this case it is Iraq that has been the aggravating factor. For Mr Brown, too, the poll is grim news, because it suggests that he may take over as Prime Minister just as his homeland is turning its back on a decade of steady if unspectacular economic growth under his chancellorship.
More than that, however, it means that he will be fighting a political war on two fronts, taking on Tories south of the Border and Nationalists north of it. Mr Salmond and the SNP, if they do command a majority, are pledged to pursue the issue of independence from Day 1, thus provoking a constitutional crisis as well as a political one.
Mr Salmond is well aware that independence does not rank high on the Scottish agenda. But he believes that, once in power, he can promote it as the best option for the future of the nation. Within 100 days of being elected, he has pledged to introduce a White Paper setting out the terms of a referendum. He has even devised the question: “The Scottish Parliament should negotiate a new settlement with the British Government, based on the proposals set out in the White Paper, so that Scotland becomes a sovereign and independent state. Do you agree or disagree?”
He has said that he would hold the referendum towards the end of his first four-year term of office, by which time, he argues, the SNP would have proved itself in government. As only Westminster has the power, to run a full-blown referendum with binding conclusions, the Salmond version would have to take the form of a “consultative” process; but if passed it would be hard to ignore.
What can Mr Brown and Labour do to claw back the ground? The first thing, of course, is to win, not lose the election — and in the next four weeks we will see some of the most ferocious campaigning that Scotland has witnessed. On my mobile phone yesterday came the latest in a series of messages from Labour, promising revelations about “Wee Alex’s” dubious proposals, and we will see much more of this kind of thing as the party sets out to expose the weaknesses of the SNP’s tax-and-spend policies, and to warn the country about the dangers of separation.
But if the SNP really does go on to win the election, there is another way that Mr Brown could turn the situation to his advantage. For all that Mr Salmond’s commitment to a referendum is portrayed as a strength, it is in reality a serious weakness. The Lib Dems — the only serious contenders as coalition partners — have stated that they would refuse to form a government with the SNP so long as the referendum is part of their manifesto.
The Nationalists, clinging perhaps to the slimmest of majorities, would hardly have tasted power before they faced defeat at the hands of their opponents on a key political issue. Even if they did go on to hold a referendum, it would, if held in the present climate of opinion, almost certainly be lost. A “no” vote would not only be a public humiliation for the Nationalists, it would deprive them of their flagship policy.
Mr Brown, meanwhile, could present himself to the Scots and the English as the champion of a united Britain, thus winning back useful ground with those of his critics who are wary of his Scottish background. And he could do something even sharper — he could shoot the Nationalist fox between the eyes. Instead of waiting for Mr Salmond to come up with his consultative exercise, he could announce his own referendum Bill, which would introduce the real thing — a proper nationwide and binding poll asking the Scots what kind of future arrangement they really wanted.
And he could devise his own question, perhaps something along the lines of: “The Scottish National Party proposes that Scotland should leave the United Kingdom and go it alone. Do you agree or disagree?” You don’t need a witch to prophesy the outcome of that one.

Magnus Linklater's journalistic career spans 40 years, taking him from editor of Londoner's Diary at the Evening Standard to editor of Spectrum and the Colour Magazine at The Sunday Times and editor of The Scotsman. He joined The Times in 1994 and writes a weekly column on Wednesdays. He was chairman of the Scottish Arts Council from 1996 to 2001, and often writes on Scottish issues
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What an honour mention in the "times" .
Yes we are all like it or not at a cross-roads,end of the Union,and History will say the last 'Roar of the the old Lion' was twenty plus years ago in the Falklands,and by the way daer olde! England might require the oil out there to stave of the cold winds of Poverty that will come from an International desison of "Who's Who in the North Sea" ,but be sure of one thing the Oil Corporations will be quoting the Iron Maiden's words,' buisness as usual '.
I for one will not morn the death of the British Labour Movement as we have known it,its rebirth in more limited directions should give the electorate a greater choice.
Angus Smith, Fairbanks, Alaska
Many good points, but the overriding issue is. New Labour were happy to tag onto Scottish votes when it meant they were kept in power.
The next few weeks will see Labour hitting Scotland like never before. Please, please see them for what they are opportunists, in it for themselves, not you or me, be we English Irish Scottish or Welsh.
The Labour government with all its Scottish born cabinet have damaged the relationship between us more in the past 10 years than the previous 100.
We have always had a tenuous relationship, but have managed to walk side by side, we are a nation made up of many facets; dont let a lying,, faceless administration turn us into a disgruntled nation, that would be tragic.
Let us please have politicians who have conviction, truth and morality, we have seen enough of spin and lies.
bee., Teesside,
Rory Winter - I don't think the Scots are that disenchanted with whats going on south of the border - they just - like any decent minded person cannot stand that rat Blair!
What will be will be but if the Scots vote in the SNP it will be for one reason only - a protest vote against Blair and his Iraq war. Maybe if he was fighting for whats right instead of fighting to keep the petrodollar at the bidding of the US instead of what he should be doing by supporting the inevitable switch to the petroeuro - a switch which by the way will kill the US which is why they start all these conflicts - then he wouldn't be considered a traitor to the world. And to the UK.
Blair is killing the union outwith UK issues.
John, London, UK
Why do I keep reading that "the English pay the bills"? Due to oil and our many exports we actually pay more in tax than our share per head and then get paid back less than our share per head. If you (England) are just paying all the bills then why don't the English government let us go our separate ways. The truth is you need our exports and wealth of natural resources more than we need your politicians placing nuclear warheads in our back gardens. Scotland is also the only country in the UK where birthrates still outnumber deaths so it's our oil funding and exports funding your pension problem. Let us not forget that we (Scotland) are the current leading country in carbon capture research which is not going to receive further funding from Westminster, Scottish research has had to move abroad in the past due to lack of funding from the south, MRI machine... Scots have always been at the forefront of technology but we get no credit.
G, Edinburgh,
"Let Scotland ,Wales Ireland, and England go there separate ways everybody wants it ,and were all in the EU so what does it matter"?
Ireland did go its separate way back in 1922. Unfortunately, Northern Ireland is still part of the UK. The two main nationalists (Sinn Fein and the SDLP) only won 41.4% of the vote in the recent elections I'm afraid. The UK will be stick with Northern Ireland for a while yet!
Roll on Scottish independence! It'll give Scots the ability to take responsibility for their own succeses and failures. Being given adult responsibilities can only be good for Scotland and its politics!
Mark Murray, Aberdeen, Scotland
Hi,
For all the talk in the media of the unfair nature of the devolution settlement - West Lothian question etc. - which I have sympathy with, one issue that has been completely ignored is what could be called the "Trident question". In the recent vote on the replacement of Trident at Westminister the majority of Scottish MPs, voting in line with Scottish public opinion, voted against replacing Trident, notwithstanding this not only is the UK going to get a new version of Trident but it will be based in Scotland! If this doesn't show that Scotland requires greater powers for its Parliament or even independence what does?
Mike Docherty, Glasgow, Strathclyde
There are only two real regions in this disunited Kingdom, London and the rest. Once Scotland is free and is a major success story (once we get the lazies out of their beds) we can allow the English regions back in one by one, ...... let's see how much money London makes when it isn't free to steal the rest of the country's pension monies and pension tax relief and government jobs that fuel the "miracle" of London growth.
I'd say within ten years we could have a prosperous country without London and we could sell the Londoners to tourists until we had got rid of them all. Think of it like a doughnut with a hole in the middle where London used to be and you'll get the idea.
John Sinclair, Dundee, DUK
Let's get this straight - it is not independence for Scotland which is at stake, but independence for England. I for one am heartily sick and tired of having our English affairs dictated by Ministers and MPs from north of the border!
Richard Marriott, Kidderminster, England
The UK (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) is at last pulling out of the great post imperial decline. Many mistakes have been made and even more lesson have been learnt. Our competition would be over the moon if we split now.
Every mistake would be blamed on the UK and not poor management by civil servants, or this, or that. It would all be blamed on independence. Don't give them the excuse. Give devolution a chance.
Danielrober, london,
The usual propaganda rears it's head when ever the SNP are discussed. Idris Francis is well known for his paranoia and racism on this subject.
For decades Scotland has been supporting the UK economy, your snide remarks about subsidy junkies are not true and not appreciated.
If you are interested in the subject please read:
http://www.siol-nan-gaidheal.com/deception.htm
Donald, Lerwick, Shetland.
Stop subsidising Scotland and then have a referendum three years down the line in Scotland as to what they want
I have always believed Scotland should be independent. With EU subsidy, the EU market and a Scandinavian style economy, coupled with Scottish inventiveness and hard work, Scotland could be a very successful small country.
Only when that is done will Scottish culture mean anything more than being the comic holiday for the rest of us.
Neil Murphy, cromer,
Let England have a referendum on ejecting Scotland from the Union so that we may at last be freed from the thrall of the Scottish Junta's yoke so cruelly and expensively cast about England's neck.
Michael Cazador, The Hague, NL
Thatcher, despite what she may say, was an English Nationalist. That woman has a lot to answer for. I wish we could say that's all in the past, but it's not - she was one of the main reasons for devolution and she was one of the main reasons for the growth in the independence movement.
Alasdair Mackay, Aberdeen, Scotland
Could any person in England tell me what is the fiscal deficit of the U.K. I have been trying to find out for some time--- I have asked supporters of the union BUT SILANCE
Bodach, Bo'ness, West Lothian
When asked whether Scotland should leave the UK and make its own way, why would England vote to keep Scotland in the style to which it has become accustomed? Instead of the Barnett formula which skins the Tory-voting English to subsidise the Labour-voting Scots, the Scots could get their snouts in the Brussels trough. Not only would it amount to a £30 billion tax saving for the English, they would never ever have to suffer a Scottish-dominated government again. It's a no-brainer to me.
Dave, Slough,
A former Labour voter, I shall vote SNP in the forthcoming Scottish election for the simple reason that they intend asking the Scottish people their views on Independence.
The other parties obviously consider us to be too stupid to have an opinion on this matter as on so many others.
Centurion2, Glasgow, Scotland
"The Union was an eighteenth century solution to a seventeenth century political problem. It has no modern relevance or utility."
Apart from North Sea Oil propping up the UK's fiscal policy for the past 25 years of course.
Not to mention the fact the Scotland has woken up to the variuos crocks of s.... handed to us by successive Westminster governments.
Roll on the 3rd May.
Paul Rankine, Ellon, Scotland
Scotland, Scotland, Scotland, Scotland, Scotland and more bloody Scotland.
There is more than one country in The UK and England is About 90% of the whole lot. Any chance that we might be asked to join in on the debate, after all, we pay the sodding bills. I don't really care what Scotland wants but I do know what 68% of the English population want - an English Parliament.
Patrick Harris, Portsmouth, England
Problem is no one in their right mind would let Holyrood run anything. There are no characters that command any respect with the exception of a few independents.
Its not known as The Numptorium for nothing you know
Pete, Edinburgh,
It cannot be much comfort for Labour party activists that their standard is carried by a Minister for Scotland with all the substance of Banquo's Ghost. Where is their inspirational Malcolm to send them rushing for their claymores and clamouring for the fray?
And what a rebuff for our prime-minister-in-waiting-in-waiting it could prove, should Labour be routed in Scotland, whose leadership strategy has long been one of complacent: 'If chance will have me king, why, chance may crown me; Without my stir.'
Ray Burke, Stockport, England
Rory Winter refers to "Scots becoming increasingly disenchated with what they see happening south of the border". Does he need reminding that most of these problems have arisen under a Scots dominated Government? Let us hope that independence (for England) is now inevitable and the appalling cabal of Scots Labour ministers will return from whence they came.
Steve, St Albans,
Spot on Richard of Leyburn. The Union is a decayed political corps. The decent thing is to bury it. Replace the mutual disdain and contempt between Scotland and England with two independent nations just as Norway/Sweden, Germany/ Denmark, Spain/Portugal, etc seem to co-exist. We may even find then the Scots will support English national football teams and only hold one last grudge match - a desire to beat England in the World Cup Final - at cricket of course!
James Brown, Ayr, Scotland
Another referendum for Scotland how many times must they be asked? I'm sick and tired of hearing about what the scots might and might not do. let us really shoot this fox once and for all and have a referendum for England on home rule. Why do all these scottish people think that independence is all about themselves?
If Scotland does not vote SNP in May, it does not follow that the English will accept the current situation.why should English MP's sit with Irish, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists at Westminster?
k young, preston, England
um, how can an SNP victory be seen as a 'damning indictment' on the devolution project so far?
That presumes that the objective of devolution was to ensure permanent Labour rule. However, I imagine most Scots feel it was to ensure permanent Scottish rule. An SNP victory is a victory for democracy, for the simple reason that it shows the Labour party does not have an undue hold over the Scottish parliament.
Graham, Bath,
Let Scotland ,Wales Ireland, and England go there separate ways everybody wants it ,and were all in the EU so what does it matter .we might just start getting on a little betterOK move the subs and do a deal with the oil and arm services and pensions, what else could be a problem?
s fisher, london, England
But can we please ask Mr Brown kindly to let us have a referendum in England? We have never been asked whether we would like devolution let alone independence - and this affects Scots and Welsh people who live in England as well as the English. All we were offered was what we did NOT want, that is partition into regions. Do we live in a democracy or do we not? Are the 50 million people of England supposed sit by supinely while our fate is decided for us, content with what ever outcome is decided? No, no, no as Maggie used to say.
Ian Campbell, W Horsley, England
Dominic
At the last general election, the Tories won more votes in England than Labour but Labour won more seats in England than the Tories.
Labour representation from Scotland and Wales might excerbate the situation, but England still returned more Labour Mp's than Tory ones.
Roll on Independence regardless.
Maxie, Clydebank, Scotland
A problem you failed to spot. A first minister must be elected by MSPs after the election and if there is not a majority government it is unlikely if the SNP were to be the largest party that they would have enough support to get Alex Salmond elected as First Minister, whereas Labour would if they were in coalition with the Lib-Dems would probably be able to secure Tory support. If no one is elected first minister, a new election is called.
Darryl Matheson, Elgin, Morayshire, UK
Labour got back to power via whipping up Scottish resentment against the poll tax to an absurd degree and tainting this visceral hatred with hatred of a nasty tribe, the Tories. The extinction of the Tories in Scotland made the Scot Nats the real default opposition. Labour, till 1997 a party surviving in Scotland hence all the Scots in the cabinet and the BBC now, paid them back with a ridulously generous devolution deal and all the political jobs wanted in England also. The Westlothian inequity was glossed over, by Labour and Libdems - Ming Campbell at the time said it was a non issue. But its injustice has slowly surfaced. Now, as Labour is loathed, Scots can afford to dally with the Nationalists hoping that England will do anything to keep the Union. But post Westlothian, the vast fund of good will by the English to the Scots has gone. Another deeply wounding New Labour legacy. In 10 years it has managed to kill a whole national culture, fragmenting Britain into suspicious tribes.
Blackstone, Banbury,
Salmond can easily bypass his referendum pledge if he has to do a deal with the Lib-Dems.In four years time there will be another election for the Scottish parliament anyway, so he can drop the referendum plan and appease his own support by using the 2011 election as a vote on independence.I suspect this has been the plan all along.
martin, dundee, scotland
Salmond is cleverer than Broon by half--never lose sight of that.
Gonuyursel, Oban, Scotland
Scotish independence no problem just take very single Scotish MP in the English parliment with you that way e will nevr have to put up with another dreadful labour government
DOMINIC, Phuket, Thailand
Why would any English person want Mr Brown to "shoot the Nationalist fox between the eyes"? The Union was an eighteenth century solution to a seventeenth century political problem. It has no modern relevance or utility. It may have emotional resonance in my parents' generation, but not in mine. The sooner the Union is dissolved, the better for England; and if that is better for Scotland too, then that is an added bonus. Of course, Mr Brown's reasons for wanting to shoot the Nationalist fox are a little more obvious; but equally unappealing and unconvincing to English eyes.
Richard, Leyburn, England
And the English just keep on paying the bills?
Alun, Singapore, Singapore
Would it not be better, after all these years of Nationalist fantasy, to give them their "independence" and see how long they want it? Once economic and political reality had set it and they crawl back, we could look forward to a decade or two without the endless complaints?
Idris Francis, Petersfield, UK
The clever part of what Mr Salmond is proposing is that he won't hold the referendum until the end of a the parliament. Of course, by then (2010, say), Westminster will have had another election - and you can bet that Salmond will be hoping against hope that the Tories win. With the Conservatives in control in Westminster, suddenly the independence argument will chime much better with a Scottish electorate that returned a maximum of 5 Tory MPs.
It would be foolish to assume that the Lib Dems will necessarily stick to their word on not forming a coalition with the SNP. They will smell power, and will be tempted by the prospect of being the most important of the 3 major UK parties in Scottish government.
Interesting times indeed.
James Steer, Clapham, London
"And he could devise his own question, perhaps something along the lines of: The Scottish National Party proposes that Scotland should leave the United Kingdom and go it alone. Do you agree or disagree? You dont need a witch to prophesy the outcome of that one."
Yes, of course he could. But first let's see what the years ahead hold for the disUnited Kingdom. As the Scots become increasingly disenchanted with what they see happening south of the border each successive day will bring us closer to the break-up of the Union and our independence.
Rory Winter, Macduff, Banffs, Scotland
Could someone tell me why the Scots are still subsidised by England? If Scotland wants seats in the English Parliament, could the English have a reciprocal arrangement.? Remember 'no taxation without representation'. Kind of catchy don't you think?
Desmond Taylor, Houston, TX