The warnings have been heeded, Scottish voters have pulled back from the wholehearted endorsement of nationalism that the SNP had been counting on, and Labour has avoided the catastrophic defeat that some had been predicting. With swings of about 6 per cent in Glasgow and the West, there were strong signs early this morning that the Labour vote was holding up, though here and there the SNP has made some startling gains.

The prospect of a neck-and-neck result will mean that Scotland is facing the prospect of a hung parliament and fraught negotiations between the parties.

When, at 2.30 am the shock news came in that the SNP had failed to win Cumbernauld and Kilsyth, its top target seat, where only a 1 per cent swing was needed, it became clear that the prospect of a Nationalist-led government hung, at best, in the balance. The success of Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP’s deputy leader, in winning the talismanic seat of Glasgow Govan came as a major compensation to the party, but a neck-and-neck result will mean that Scotland is facing the prospect of a divided parliament. What the SNP needed, but has not got, was the kind of tidal wave of support that translates, not only into a massive majority, but the moral advantage it would need if it were to win support for its promised referendum, which would set the country on the route towards independence.

Alex Salmond pulled off a stunning victory in Gordon and on any other night that would have been hailed as a remarkable result. He described his triumph, and that of the party elsewhere as signalling “a wind of change” blowing through Scotland. But in truth the SNP breakthrough that had been promised has not materialised.

Tricia Marwick’s victory for the SNP in Central Fife was a big blow for Labour, and means the departure of Christine May, one of the parliament’s most articulate members. It is the first time that the SNP has made any gains in Fife.

What seems to have happened in the central belt is that voters who gave the SNP their support in opinion polls have faltered at the last moment, and may perhaps have heeded the warnings from Tony Blair and Gordon Brown that an SNP-governed nation would lead to a long period of instability as the party challenged Westminster over issues such as council tax, oil revenues and the Barnett formula. The “fear factor” for which the leadership was heavily criticised may in the end have persuaded Labour’s party faithful to turn out and vote.

For the Scottish Tories it was, once again, a night of disappointment, and the loss of one of their Holyrood stars, Murray Tosh, the Deputy Presiding Officer in the last parliament, was a particularly bitter blow. Scotland is not yet ready, it seems, to forgive the Conservatives. However, Alex Fergusson’s success in holding Galloway and Upper Nithsdale was a personal triumph.

What may emerge, however, as the biggest story of this election has been the startling number of spoiled and rejected ballot papers. Some 7 per cent, a huge increase from last time, have not been accepted, mainly because voters have been confused by the three forms of voting they were required to enter.

With council elections being included, it is clear that this was one challenge too many for many voters. This has affected the turnout figure as well as dented the majorities of the parties. A major inquiry will certainly be needed.

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