Magnus Linklater
The man, the films, those blondes. Free DVD collection starting this Sunday
Tragic, unpredictable . . . lessons to be learnt. Whatever the outcome of the Madeleine McCann case, there will be no lack of inquest afterwards on the way the Portuguese police have handled the case. In some ways it has already begun. The British view, thinly disguised, suggests that things would have been better handled here. It is, at best, a questionable assumption. When it comes to the psychological profiling of determined predators, we too have a long way to go.
Tomorrow three women who have lost daughters to violent attackers are taking the courageous step of holding a press conference in London to highlight the failure of our criminal justice system to understand and to pre-empt the actions of men whose obsessions drive them to stalk, control and sometimes to kill their victims. Stella Moore, Tricia Bernal and Carol Faruqui have all experienced the agony – shared by Kate and Gerry McCann – of finding themselves daily in the headlines as police pieced together the steps that led to a family tragedy. In their case, it was the loss of their grown-up daughters, killed by estranged and vengeful partners, which turned their lives upside down.
Stella Moore’s daughter, Tania, was shot in her car near her home in Derbyshire. Tricia Bernal’s daughter, Clare, was shot dead in Harvey Nichols by a former boyfriend. Carol Faruqui’s daughter, Rana, was stabbed to death in a field while tending her horse. What all three mothers now know is that, in each case, there were unmistakable clues that pointed to the violent outcome – the assailants were known to the victims, police had been informed about the threat as it built up and a steadily growing series of events pointed forwards to the almost inevitable final confrontation. Yet on each occasion the clues were misread, downplayed, dismissed or ignored.
The case that the three women will be making is a dramatic one. They believe that, if police and social services studied techniques now routinely used in countries such as America, Canada and Finland, but which are radically different from those deployed in Britain, 80 per cent of the deaths that are likely to happen over the next three years could be prevented. And since, on average, two women die each week in this country at the hands of a current or former partner, that is a substantial claim.
Domestic violence killings, as they are known, have a pattern that has been studied in great detail in the United States, leading to a dramatic reduction in the number of cases. Some years ago, two men, Bob Martin, of the Los Angeles Police Department, and Gavin de Becker, who specialised in protecting film stars and other public figures from the attention of stalkers, began to compile a system of assessing the risk of assault from rejected partners or psychopathic stalkers. By studying hundreds of cases, and working backwards from the actual assault to the first signs of a possible threat, they realised that there was a method by which the risk could be accurately quantified.
They developed Mosaic20, a computerised model that assessed the likelihood of an attack, placed it on a scale of one to ten and measured it against nationally compiled statistics. So accurate did their predictions become that San Diego, where such attacks were common, was persuaded to set up a family justice centre, where anyone believing that they may be at risk can go for expert assessment and, if necessary, protection. The centre has been instrumental in reducing the domestic murder rate from 12 a year to just one. It has now been copied in 26 other parts of America.
In Britain, there is only one such system in use. The family justice centre in Croydon, introduced a year ago, is a model of its kind, as good as anything elsewhere in the world. In an area where there were up to five adult murders a year, the number has dropped to zero. It has yet, however, to be copied anywhere else, and it has minimal funding compared with the US model. Baroness Scotland of Asthal, the Home Office Minister, has been pressed to introduce it in Britain but has not yet been persuaded. Tomorrow she will be lobbied by Stella Moore, Tricia Bernal and Carol Faruqui to support the Croydon centre and to apply its principles more widely across the country.
There is, of course, no evidence that the person or persons who abducted Maddy McCann would have shown up on an equivalent computer model for child-obsessed adults. But there are strong parallels when it comes to the use of psychological evidence.
Determined stalkers, fixated on their likely victims, whether children or adults, leave trails of evidence – strange patterns of behaviour, psychological flaws, bizarre and sometimes violent episodes – that can be followed as scientifically as fingerprints or DNA evidence, which are the standard raw material of police investigators everywhere. The difference here is that the violent act, whether murder or abduction, has to be predicted before the event, rather than unravelled afterwards, and detectives seem less enthusiastic about preventing crime than they are about solving it.
When it comes to the kind of psychological profiling that might have prevented the Soham killings, for instance, where all the clues were available in advance, our systems are ill-equipped to take preventive action. We must all hope that there is a happy ending to the Maddy McCann case. But, if the worst transpires, one thing is certain. When all the facts are known, and the abductor identified, the clues that might have identified him in advance will be staring us in the face.
Magnus Linklater's journalistic career spans 40 years, taking him from editor of Londoner's Diary at the Evening Standard to editor of Spectrum and the Colour Magazine at The Sunday Times and editor of The Scotsman. He joined The Times in 1994 and writes a weekly column on Wednesdays. He was chairman of the Scottish Arts Council from 1996 to 2001, and often writes on Scottish issues
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I think that this kind of system would not work in Liverpool. The police here are only interested in traffic control. I don't think there are any real policemen here anymore. You may get seven or eight yellow jacketed officers standing around a speed gun. I don't know, perhaps they're disguised as clues. And before anyone comments, No, I have not been booked for a motoring offence, but I did see a guy handcuffed and dragged out of his car after arguing with a policeman about the fact that he had been using a mobile phone while driving. I know it's an offence, and I know he should not have been using it, but the consequences were a bit OTT
David Conlin, Liverpool, Merseyside
Risk assessment tools such as Moasic 20 are known about within the UK criminal justice sytem within the UK and as far as I am aware widely used. The main issue with using such tools in the UK is that they have yet to verified for use on a UK population. Bodies such as the Risk Management Authority in Scotland have published a guide as to which Risk Assessement tools for both violent and sexual violence risk have been verfied on UK populations. The Risk Management Authority has a websites which is found easily using google, where more information on Risk Assessment procedures and tools can be downloaded.
A Kelly, Scotland,
Loosely linking to the subject of Maddie McCann. It may be that the arrest of Murat was as a result of the pattern of Huntley in the search for Holly and jessicca. I've always felt it is a mistake to take the hallmarks of one situation and transpose them onto future events.
Our instincts tell us so much about dangerous people,as sadly the three Mothers can probably testify, but these basic human skills are overlooked in favour of impartial professional methods that may argue with instincts. I think detectives have often said what eventually led them to solve a crime was their instinct but this can often be after a murder rather than before.
Lynda Wardley, Tonbridge, UK
What about the women (mother and daughter) who make false allegations against a male who reported their child abuse (grandchild and son) and are given surveillance technology to stalk and harass the guy who tried to protect the child in order to cover up their crime with continuous death threats and the lethal use of the surveillance technology for eight and 3/4 years?
If the police and those in authority can't get this situation right with totally invasive surveillance technology after all these years, how can they be expected to get anything right? Oh, yeah, and the mother was armed by the police despite continuous death threats made against the guy who reported her child abuse. What happens is she uses this gun?
The government sanctions stalking and harassment while providing the weapons. Do you expect the government to do anything?
Gary D Chance, London, UK
Gavin de Becker's book ,The Gift of Fear ,was published in 1997 and the Mosaic programme was already in place then. It is an excellent work and should be compulsary reading for all police officers and legislators.
Vivienne O'Riain, Le Vesinet, France
Wait wait wait... People in the UK were murdered with guns? I thought that guns were banned and confiscated and a figment of the imagination outside of the USA.
John, Alexandria, VA
<b>Hey John, you are an idiot. Total gun deaths in th UK in 2002 were 97 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/01/10/ngun10.xml). Total gun deaths in the US during the same period were 18,000 (http://www.cnn.com/US/9901/02/murder.rate/)
The US has 5 times the population of the UK, so dividing this figure by five gives us 3,600 murders. The US has 36 gun killings for every 1 in the UK.</b>
Full Name, Melbourne, Australia
Wait wait wait... People in the UK were murdered with guns? I thought that guns were banned and confiscated and a figment of the imagination outside of the USA.
John, Alexandria, VA
I think I understand what the author is trying to say in this article. I would not say it is misleading at all - just another slant on how to detect crime.
Ian Payne, LICHFIELD - STAFFS, ENGLAND
It must be pretty terrifying to be in the position where you know a jealous ex-lover is capable of killing you and the police ain't going to do naff all about it.
Kevin Varney, Reading, UK
There is something very weird going on here. I live in California and i have never heard of "Mosaic20".
In fact, neither has Google. The only hits I find is this article by Linklater and an uncritical reference to his article from some Green Party feminist web site.
Can we get a better reference so that we can check if this is fact or fiction, please?
And I'll spare you the jokes about Minority Report.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/US
I now suspect everyone I encounter, for safety.
Mike Medina, St. Albans, England
"...detectives seem less enthusiastic about preventing crime than they are about solving it." ...and well they should. It is full of pitfalls for them and society. It has never been the job of law enforcement to prevent crime. Originally, their job was to apprehend people for whom a warrent was issued and present them before the magistrate. We should understand that it is no small leap for the police to go from aprehension of offenders to crime prevention.
Doug Forbes, Wheeling, USA
I fear that preventing such attacks is wishful thinking. Not only was Dominick Dunn's daughter strangled by her violent ex boyfriend in the US, but he only got 2 YEARS even though there was no doubt that he was her killer. As for Soham, a mere background check would have ensured that Mr. Huntley was not hired by the school. I'm afraid this assessment confuses 20-20 hindsight with foresight. You can now be arrested for being "in possession of an egg with intent of throwing" but I have yet to hear of someone being arrested for intent of killing a private person, alas.
elizabeth schumann, Paris, France
Funny, the article neither tells the reader how to spot a homicidal stalker, nor how to prevent his attack. I nominate this piece for 2007's most misleading headline of the year.
Aaron Perhach, Forty Fort, Pennsylvania
I think that what will become subsequently obvious is more likely the cause of the abduction, and indeed we can see something of it now in the disproportionate media attention and the big-money rewards. There will be the selling of stories and all the newly habituated post-trauma procedure. It is an unattractive situation, but it does reflect the cynical and unscrupulous state into which Thatchers non-society has fallen. Since this is comparatively early days in the lottery era, it remains to be seen how it may develop.
Henry Percy, London, UK
Why the British should assume a greater level of competence on the part of their police forces compared to other European forces is something of a mystery. The British police have steadily degenerated over the last few years due to a number of factors, most of which emanate from the rotten politico-bureaucratic establishment based in Whitehall.
Gervas Douglas, Andorra la Vella,
The pickaxe is usually a dead giveaway
Mark Vickery, Sittingbourne, Kent
Yes, Magnus, you're on the right track here - as is Jonathan in NYC.
Getting into a debate about the merits and drawbacks of, say, "gun control" sidesteps the real underlying issue of what to do about people who are just plain dangerous sociopaths or psycopaths.
In a free society this poses a grim dilemma as liberty is prized above security. I confess I have no instant solution but the problem must, sooner rather than later, be intelligently addressed.
David Thomas, Slough, UK
Gavin de Becker's book The Gift of Fear was published in 1997 and the Mosaic programme was already set up then. The book is excellent and should be compulsary reading for all police officers and legislators. Another good book in the same vein is The Jigsaw Man by Paul Britton.
Vivienne O'Riain, Le Vesinet, France
Believe me, we live in a very blind-folded society and at times we sense the triggers , strange behaviours and bizzare personality traits , yet we turn oblivious to it. Every stalker or a criminal leaves behind a trail of evidence but we ignore them, presumably thinking that nothing wrong or disastrous might happen. Aren't we like ostrich or some pigeon , who lives with a tunnel vision, devoid of reality. The brutal killing of three young girls by a psycopathic stalker, and the initiative taken by their mothers to book the criminal and bring out justice , is a very sane and sensible move. It should act as an eye opener, a lesson for others too. Can't we break our mental slumber and woke up to face the grim realities of our life. A preventive harsh step take, is far better than to relent for such an happening.
Sanjeev Dheer, New Delhi, India
I think there is some mistake here about the nature of the problem.
For example, everyone who encountered Seung-Hui Cho at Virginia Tech recognized him immediately as a dangerous psychopath. But if society lacks to the courage to do anything about such people, they will stay at liberty until they commit a horrible crime.
Jonathan, NYC, USA