Magnus Linklater
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To explain the exact connection between a newly opened hamburger joint in Beijing, Sir Richard Branson's biofuelled planes and the strip of wild flowers running round my farmer friend's field in Cambridgeshire would take more than the 970 words allotted to me here but, believe me, they will be on the front page of this and every other newspaper before long, because they spell the beginnings of a full-blown food crisis.
You can see the early signals already - the doubling of wheat prices, the mounting cost of bread, the steepest increases at the supermarkets for 14 years, demonstrations on the streets by pig farmers threatened with bankruptcy, “tortilla riots” in Mexico, the drying up of aid to the Third World.
And this is only the start of it. In the words of Tim Lang, Professor of Food Policy at the University of Leeds: “We are sleep-walking into a crisis.” At the very least he predicts the end of the era of cheap food, which will of itself amount to a big shift in our eating habits. But if the process of rising costs and diminishing supplies of grain accelerates, as it may well do, we could witness actual shortages of basic foostuffs. One report last month said that the world is only ten weeks away from running out of wheat supplies after stocks fell to their lowest level for 50 years.
The causes are many and various, but at their heart is a change in global consumer habits that has crept up on us almost without our noticing. In China and the Far East, growing wealth has been accompanied by a taste for Western diets, including, principally, beef, which is now being imported in increasing quantities. There was a time when the idea of an American-style hamburger would have turned the stomach of the average Chinese; not any more. McDonald's is rolling out a chain of drive-through fast-food outlets in China's 30,000 petrol stations, and opening restaurants across that vast country to cater for a new appetite for Western meat.
The world market for beef, and the resulting need for cattle feed has coincided with a decline in the production of grain, as the maize farmers of America switch from producing their standard crops to growing biofuels as an alternative source of energy. Worried by the instability of oil and gas-supplying states throughout the world - from Russia to the Middle East - the US Government has encouraged farmers to turn their fields over to producing ethanol. Production of this alternative fuel is predicted to rise by 30 per cent by 2010. As one farmer put it: “Once I grew food for a bullock, now I grow fuel for a Buick.”
Enter Sir Richard, heralding a new era of carbon-free aviation travel by sending one of his passenger jets across the North Sea, its tanks brimming with biofuels. His feat is, of course, widely applauded, with giants of the global-warming era such as Bill Clinton and Al Gore congratulating him on a pledge to spend $3 billion on developing his alternative Virgin fuels. So, just at a time when we should be considering how best to increase our production of grain, we in Britain are switching off one main source of it.
Here then, one might imagine, would be an opportunity for Britain, with its long tradition of highly efficient farming, to begin filling the gap. As Professor Lang, in a lecture this week at City University, London, pointed out, Britain has turned round its farming industry to become one of the most productive in the world. Too productive, perhaps. By the 1970s Britain and Europe, aided by massive subsidies, were contributing to grain, beef and butter mountains that had become a source of international scandal.
The Common Agricultural Policy began switching its grant system away from production towards more environmentally friendly schemes. Farmers were encouraged to grow verges round their fields, where wild life could flourish. Hedges, ripped out to increase the size of fields, were carefully replanted. Ponds, small copses, water verges and species-rich grassland were actively encouraged. It did wonders for biodiversity, and made a great deal of money for some. My East Anglian farmer friend reported happily on the marked improvement the new grants had made to his bottom line.
He is less happy now. With wheat at £180 a ton, he would dearly like to rip out the thickets and meadows where birds and bees so happily congregate, and go back to doing what he is best at - producing grain. But he is locked into a ten-year scheme and, for the time being at any rate, he is unable to make the switch. Elsewhere, there are some signs of flexibility: in Scotland a new scheme is being introduced, aimed at encouraging farmers to co-operate, and become more competitive and more market-orientated. But overall there is little sign that policy-makers have grasped the enormity of what has happened. The UK is now barely 60 per cent self-sufficient in food.
It is clear that the Government has yet to react to the dimensions of the looming world food crisis. It needs to begin a debate with the EU on the whole direction of Europe's agricultural strategy and rethink it from scratch, devising a strategy for sustainable production, then begin to educate the public about the realities ahead. It will mean a change in culture that is a million miles from the Tesco-driven consumerism we have grown lazily used to over the past 20 years.
Professor Lang suggests we may need to go back to the ground-breaking reports of the 1940s, which led to a wholesale shift in Britain's approach to food production. If that means a revolutionary change in the national diet, then so be it. Maybe that would be no bad thing.

Magnus Linklater's journalistic career spans 40 years, taking him from editor of Londoner's Diary at the Evening Standard to editor of Spectrum and the Colour Magazine at The Sunday Times and editor of The Scotsman. He joined The Times in 1994 and writes a weekly column on Wednesdays. He was chairman of the Scottish Arts Council from 1996 to 2001, and often writes on Scottish issues
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it is my opinion that the general public in the u.s. knows that there is a real economic crisis on our hands at this time...the problem is what our government and polititians are doing about it..at this time, i believe most have turned a blind eye to their constituents. everything is touched by petroleum and the best thing our government could do at this time is quit wasting my tax dollars bailing corporations out of trouble and subsidize solar and wind energy for the masses.
caryn verell, houston, usa / mississippi
The reason why prices of grains are rising so quickly is less to do with a fall in their supply (e.g. 3.8% according to official figures for wheat) and more to do with an increase in the supply of money. All major nations are "printing" money at a rate that is as frightening as the fact that it seems to be so little reported.
Rick, Manchester,
The growth in demand for agricultural products is fantastic news for the whole globe.
This can reduce the rate of global warming. IF the developing world can get it's act together - and it is a VERY BIG IF - they will find markets for produce that were previously dominated by over-subsidised farmers in America and the EU and remove poverty from the third world.
Can you imagine a world without Sports Relief or Comic Relief or Saint Bob G?
David Illingworth, Abernethy, Perthshire, Great Britain
How strange to hear people saying there's too many on the planet. Perhaps they think God is in the wrong here?
Sean, Manchester,
Thank goodness for this piece that successfully highlights the scale of the food crisis facing us. I foresee a time in the not-too-distant future when British farmers will be directed, rather in the manner that they were directed by the War Agricultural Executive Committees in World War II, to ensure that land is farmed properly and not laid waste. That will need a change of mind-set for my area of the Cambridgeshire Fens where the National Trust is planning to buy up and partially to flood some 15,000 acres (up now from a previously reported total of 13,500 acres) of the finest food-growing land in the country. The Trust is receiving tax-payer and Lottery funding for its crazy and out-dated ideas: this should be stopped forthwith. With wheat at 200GBP per tonne, fine farmland is for food-growing, not flooding!
Geoffrey Woollard, Cambridge, England
When you mention the conversion of American maize produce to biofuels, I notice you forget to place blame where it really belongs: on American politicians who direct subsidies to hopelessly energy-inefficient maize-based biofuels rather than permitting the import of efficient Brazilian biofuels derived from sugar.
Rowan, Oxford,
Funny that the people who've commented below about over-population never seem to consider suicide, thereby doing us all a favour.
Mike M., boston,
First of all l think you are misleading a lot of people when you say "as the maize farmers of America switch from producing their standard crops to growing biofuels as an alternative source of energy"...you do not grow biofuels, the famers are still planting the same crops, and much more, just now these crops are being used in the production of biofuels and not into animal feed, as the biofuels producers, aided by Government subsidies are able to pay higher prices for the raw materials than animal producers.
The problem in the UK is after years of the major supermarkets squeezing the margins of UK producers hiding behind the safety net of supplying cheap food for the public, many have been forced out of the business and is a major reason why we have the problems we do in the UK today.
Yet at the same time they welcomed with open arms cheap foreign imports where standards are way behind those of the UK.
The supermarkets hold the key, share some of the profit.....
S.Wellcome, Hornchurch, UK
The only one to mention helping our farmers instead of subsidising the EU farmers in recent times was David Cameron.
I just hope he can swing the vote for a referendum, the sooner we are out of the EU and in charge of our own future the better. When things go wrong and David Cameron is proved right,
I hope Gordon Brown will feel a deep shame for what he has done to our country since he has been in power.
ES, Kingston
E Simmons, Kingston Upon Thames, England
Stafford County Council recently stated an intention to sell off some farms it owned to commercial development as that would produce more revenue! Well there you have it. The State developed this theory that food could be got from abroad and that our lands, as defined by SCC, would be best covered in houses and storage facilities. Unfortunately, events have got ahead of such planning and once more Labour have put the country into danger. Labour never did understand farming, the countryside. It appears that their thinking is that yes, we may lose thousands of acres to building development but we can make up the short-fall with GM. So that's alright, we can ignore the benefits that organic offers in better husbandry and variety of supply for there will be an adequacy of protein pills to eat. The energy crisis shows how losing control of supply puts us into danger and food is another facet of the same reality. Those seemingly empty acres are food and not the fiefdoms of class enemies.
Malcolm Turner, Alsager, England
So the real problem is not that there isn't enough food, but that all the food is being fed to the pigs and cows and hens and sheep and....
Stop eating meat, and there will be food enough for everyone.
PK, Bangalore,
Since New Labour has let in more than one and a half million immigrants ijn the last ten years, it is hardly surprising that the country is even less able to feed itself than before. Thanks for nothing, New Labour.
RB, Aberdeen,
Eat less meat AND only travel when necessary.
H Grant, Germany,
Scaremongering?
How often do I read that sort of response to articles on climate change and resource depletion?
People are entitled to believe the moon's made of green cheese if they wish, but when self-delusion becomes mass delusion its time to get worried.
Ian is right of course - we could go back to the diet of of 1950 to become a much healthier people, and there would be enough to go round everyone on the planet.
Like the man said: there's enough for everyone's need, but not for everyone's greed.
Tom MacFarlane, Thornton, UK
Quite right Magnus, but it's only half the story. Because not only is the available land for foodproduction under threat from the switch to bio fuels and, in Europe, to much less efficient organic farming, the Earth has now entered a period of cooling (in spite of what we are being told by politicians and environmentalists) which will make the growing of grain that much harder.
On the bright side, however, we can be confident that the obesity epidemic will soon be over.
Ed Zuiderwijk, Cambridge, UK
I'm assuming that those calling for population control will be the first to fall upon their swords, so as to provide an example for the rest of us. Or is population control for other, bigger, less civilised countries and people? 'The Surplus Population' was a concept written about by Charles Dickens in A Christmas Carol, as the Ghost of Christmas present pointed out, has anybody sought the views of the 'surplus population'?
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
And in places like sub-Saharan Africa where Mugabe has already just about destroyed Zimbabwe's food production, and South Africa is in the same process by driving white farmers off their lands, Will we listen to "ageing pop-stars" desperate for self-promotion who ask for cash to feed the starving masses in the near future? I hope they are told to go to blazes for the condition there is going to be self-inflicted and they must live with the results. Should reduce the over population though in addition the the HIV/AIDS and the new un-treatable tuberculosis.
We are so glad we escaped in 1999.
B J Deller, Marbella, Spain
If you have a garden, please grow your own food, Spring is coming here is the chance.
Don't rely on the food chain be independent.
Look after you family. It is not going to get any easier out there.
anne, eastbourne, east sussex
How Malthusian is the prospect of widespread starvation for populations who can no longer afford to eat because agricultural land, including that in their own countries is being deliberately turned over to the production of crops to burn rather than to eat? No doubt the very sorts of people who are responsible for the creation of this obscene market will be the first to organise pop concerts and other events when the problems begin.
figurewizard, Hampshire, UK
Its so simple.....................Overpopulation, Overpopulation, Overpopulation.
How many times must it said ?
doris, Southeast, of England
I fully agree with the comments on population growth,
THAT IS THE PROBLEM, NOT RESOURCES.
Large sections of the worlds population will never reach their full potential, physically or mentally because their are not getting enough protein of any form. We should be growing grain to feed people not cows.
LJS, EDINBURGH,
So far so predictable. We now grow maize to turn into cow food and more maize to turn into car food. Of course we're low on cereals when we grow crops to feed ecomomies instead of ourselves. The land can sustain more than the current population if we eat less meat and drive or fly fewer miles. We don't have to become full-time vegetarian cyclists, just part time, or it's dust bowls, death and starvation for the lot of us!
Charles Berger, Epsom, Surrey
There's plenty of food in the world. Much of it is fed to pigs and cows for beefburgers and bacon. If we at a lot less meat, we'd have grain to feed millions.
I once read a statistic that said we could feed three times the number of people we have now - if only food were more evenly distributed and people had a vegetarian diet.
This article is only scaremongering.
Martina, Duesseldorf, Germany
Slightly inaccurate reporting I fear.
"Enter Sir Richard, heralding a new era of carbon-free aviation travel by sending one of his passenger jets across the North Sea, its tanks brimming with biofuels"
Actually ONE engine was running on 25% biofuel from a special tank - and we don't even know if it was used at normal power levels!
Branson however has shown his of mastery of public realtions yet again - you fell for it!
Mike Bibby, St Albans, England -not EU
So the UK is only 60% self-sufficient? And we apparently throw half of our food away according to other articles? And 70% of UK adults are overweight? All sounds like problems that'll sort themselves to be honest. We'll have to eat less and throw away less.
Ian, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
Heard this Doom's Day pitch before during the oil crisis of the early 1970s. Since then we've had the global obesity epidemic which indicates almost no one in the developed world misses a meal. The very unlikely worst outcome is the processed food manufacturers and fast food operators will develop very nutritious and tasty "Soylent Green" foods which will keep everyone even fatter than they are today.
MARK KLEIN, M.D., OAKLAND, CA
Give Richard Branson his due. The recent flight was to establish the technical feasibility of biofuel at high altitude, low pressure and low temperature. He has made it plain, repeatedly, that he knows as well as anyone that ultimately bio-kerosene must be derived from a non-food source such as algae.
As for the rest of us - well, we're human beings. That's what we do. Once upon a time Easter Island was covered with lush forest and the inhabitants had more food than they could eat. Then they chose to starve themselves into extinction.
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
Congratulations on an excellent article.
Surely, the underlying cause of all this is overpopulation. The production of biofuels is just making the existing problem of agricultural land shortage worse, faster.
Our efforts should be concentrated on halving the population of the world within 30 years (it will double if we do nothing). Ask yourself; which religion bans contraception?
Greg Palmer, Düsseldorf, Germany
My biggest fear is the impact on the diverse ecosystems we have in the UK and around the world. Mother Nature has produced beautiful things, but the parasite that is man is slowly destroying thousands of years of nature. A balance needs to be found, and that balance is population control. There will come a point where the 'human right' of having many children will be quashed for the sake of survival of mankind.
Alternatively, a good bout of deadly world flu would come in handy.
Martin, Maidenhead, UK
Just who is going to get the POP-STOP foundation up and running? Target: global population reduced by 10% every ten years or less, and gross national product (each country has a sub-target) down by 5% - which still leaves everyone 5.55% better off...for those that must have economic growth.
Doug, Basel, Switzerland
Biofuels need killing off before they can get established, because once they are established, and if the price of oil continues to rise, airlines will use huge amounts to fly people on holiday to countries where people are starving, because they can't afford to compete with the airlines for agricultural produce.
andrew, cirencester, uk
The previous contributors' comments summarise the situation nicely.
Oh dear! The global economic model is worn out. Just look at one of the world population counters on the internet, and watch it climbing!
It appears that moderating world population and (UK) immigration is beyond the will/grasp of the politicians, economists and religious leaders. How to reduce the number of consumers, and consumer demand, without a global depression? I feel sorry for the trees and fields, and people.
Glyn, Hereford, UK
Before a famine breaks out we should think about whether we need to fly between New York and London for shopping trips.
Biofuels = starvation.
Mark, Epping, Essex
The Victory Garden had a lot going for it. We need to get more back yard gardens going. Even a window box can grow something. As a collective thing, we can help out this way. Also, there is a good feeling to be able to grow smething that contributes to food on the table, with perhaps some produce over to give away.
margie, victoria, australia
Perhaps we should promote contraception to head off population growth, as well as reducing our excessive consumption. The real problem is there are far too many people on this planet.
Max, drogheda, ireland
When will politicians start to talk about the real problem the world is facing: over population. Malthus is often derided but I think his time has come. There are now too many people in the world, and in Britain, for it to be a pleasant place to live. Maybe the world in 2050 will be able to feed 9 billion people (although I fear famine will be an everyday occurance in the less fertile regions), but if this is only achieved by clearing all the forests and farming every scrap of land, fishing every fish in the sea and turning the planet into nothing more than our life support system, that is too high a price.
Sam, Cambridge,