Matthew Parris
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Some months ago a fellow guest at a college dinner dictated to me, as I scribbled on a slip of paper, a quote I didn’t want to forget. It is beside me now as I write. “Remember, I was knocked down by a horse-drawn bus, and lived to see a man on the Moon.” This (my fellow diner told me) was remarked to her by her late grandmother in 1972. The old lady was illustrating how much life had changed since she was a girl.
I retrieved that slip of paper, after reading in Thursday’s Times Anatole Kaletsky’s remarkable account of the convulsions of upheaval and change endured by his own forebears up until the middle of the last century. By comparison, wrote Anatole, the half-century since has been rather uneventful. The idea that we should be left giddy by what Tony Blair in a conference speech once called “the ever-increasing pace of change” is a misapprehension.
Or a misapprehension here in the West. I suppose that if you lived in Kampala, Jakarta or São Paolo, the last 50 years would have seen life revolutionised at least as much as in the half century before. But not here in Britain, Europe or North America. I have written before on this page about the technological doldrums through which we have been passing in the past half-century: still living much as we did when I was a boy in the 1950s; still driving cars powered by internal combusion engines, still going in to the office, and still (we men) in infernal suits and ties.
With very few exceptions (I shall come to information technology in a moment) the great life-changing inventions and discoveries — humble or hi-tech — that shape modern society were made before or during the Second World War: automobiles, aeroplanes, the jet engine, electricity, telephones, radio, television, refrigerators, washing machines, industrial mass production . . . the list is endless. In medical science the same is true: germ theory, penicillin, virology, radiology, anaesthetics and bacteriology are all pre1950, and the huge leaps enjoyed in average life expectancy in the developed world were made relatively early in the last century. Today life expectancy is only creeping forward.
I have just been reading an article written in America in 1950 for Popular Mechanics magazine. Waldemar Kampffert, then the science editor of The New York Times, offered his predictions on how science and technology would be shaping our lives by the year 2000. Reviewed 57 years later, “Miracles You’ll See in the Next Fifty Years”* is a chilling read for any journalist in the business of prophecy. We are not living in anything like the way Kampffert, who is deadly serious, predicts. He has us in disposable underwear which — like most of our textiles — is made from sawdust or chemicals, and which after use is broken down and “converted into candy”. Much food comes from chemicals or sawdust, or in frozen standard bricks: “Cooking as an art is only a memory.” We do not shave, but wipe on depilatory cream. Our houses are built of plastic: “By 2000, wood, brick and stone are ruled out because they are too expensive.” Crockery and cutlery are disposable, and dishes dissolve after use.
When a housewife “cleans house she simply turns the hose on everything. Why not? Furniture (upholstery included), rugs, draperies, unscratchable floors — all are made of synthetic fabric or waterproof plastic. After the water has run down a drain in the middle of the floor (later concealed by a rug of synthetic fibre) Jane turns on a blast of hot air and dries everything. A detergent in the water dissolves any resistant dirt.” Almost everything is standardised, predicts Kampffert, but to a high standard. “The heart of the town is the airport” and we travel in family helicopters or by jet. Weather forecasts are perfectly accurate. Approaching storms are diverted by burning oil beneath them. And a retardant for ageing has been discovered: people look 40 when they are 70.
An entertaining romp through the perils of prophecy, the article is adrift in more than its particulars; it is adrift in its overall message: that we would be living lives barely recognisable to the people of the 1950s.
We are not, with one significant exception (not predicted by Kampffert). This is the means by which I can offer you instant access to that back number of Popular Mechanics. IT has yet to represent much more than a huge convenience. Perhaps it will but so far its effect is to facilitate and accelerate.
But what struck me for the first time as I read of the whole-life shocks that Anatole’s forebears faced, is that the slowing pace of change in the material world has been mirrored by a sharp loss of momentum in the world of ideas, ideology and ethics, too. In the past quarter century, new thinking here has all but juddered to a halt.
When I was 10, my schoolmates and I believed that an Age of Reason was almost upon us. Reason was (unthinkingly) associated with science; and science would help to lead mankind not only to a more comfortable, but to a more just and moral, way of life. We learnt in our history lessons at school of religious and ideological spasms — the waves of philosophical and ethical change — through which our culture had passed in previous centuries. Another, we believed, was imminent. Perhaps it was already under way.
Prominent among the ideas whose time we thought would come was a withering away of nation states, and the growth of World Government. Petty nationalisms were primitive and old-fashioned, and humans would outgrow them. And we would learn fairer means of distribution of the world’s resources. Population control would occupy the world’s leaders. Wars and conflicts would cease — or at least be controlled and adjudicated by international bodies. Lives of selfish greed would yield to reason. Growing understanding of psychology would help to tame madness — collective and individual.
Some believed communism was the human system through which this transformation would be wrought. Others thought a liberal humanism — and, of course, science — would do it. And there were those who thought that America would lead the world until all the world was so much like America that world government was effectively achieved. The clash of ideologies was strong, stronger than ever — indeed it was to lead to the Cold War — but both sides to that argument shared belief in an important premise: that human society was, if not perfectible, then capable of huge improvement through political and social action; and that that old devil, human nature, could be tailored, trimmed, rebalanced and enlightened.
Had we not (after all) seen patterns of human belief and behaviour change almost out of recognition from our great-grandparents’ day? Change on a comparable scale must lie ahead too. In our heads as well as in our household appliances, modern man would be new and different.
None of this has come to pass. The gap between rich and poor has widened. The nation state is as strong as ever. With the stumbling of the United Nations, ideas of world government have faded. We are no closer to curing mental illness or human misbehaviour: crime has increased. The forced migrations of peoples haunt the age. We have given up even thinking about the population explosion. And, now that communism has fallen by the wayside, Adam Smith’s view of human progress driven by individual self-interest is even more widely accepted than in 1950. A profound pessimism underlies it all. We do not any longer suppose it likely that the human race is capable of improvement except in its material circumstances.
Will this pass? In 2050 will there be new ideals, idealisms and ideologies, new plans for the betterment of humanity as a whole? I shall not fall into the same trap as Kampffert; I shall attempt no prophecy. I do not know. I know only that as I write, the world is pretty well stuck.
Matthew Parris joined The Times as parliamentary sketchwriter in 1988, a role he held until 2001. He had formerly worked for the Foreign Office and been a Conservative MP from 1979-86. He has published many books on travel and politics and an autobiography, Chance Witness, for which he won the 2004 Orwell Prize. His diary appears in The Times on Thursdays, and his Opinion column on Saturdays
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Obesity. from a nation of people unsure of its next meal, we have gone to a nation of lard arsed burger guzzlers. The industrialization of food production and the chemical residues we consume will in future years come to resemble the thalidomide crisis. Our consumption of the planets resources has been realized to be completely unsustainable. We are changing the Planet, something only dreamed of in sc-fi.
And mp3 players.
Ron Baker, london , UK
Stuck may be the wrong word... stalled progress could also describe the current situation. True there are hardly any original inventions with the potential to be life changing, but that dosen't mean there are no new ideas. There has been a revolution in information technology which means there are plenty of ideas in circulation. The world is so diverse and people from all walks of life can communicate easily causing the intermixing of opposing life experiences which are being transformed into new ideas and philosophies. The eastern block is becoming westernised whilst militantly trying to retain its traditional values and the west is being changed beyond recognition becoming culturally diverse through immigration. This process itself is considered progress.
Irina, Aberystwyth, Wales
We SHOULD be going back! I believe that most baby boomers still alive today were happiest when they were growing up and enjoyed the enormous sense of freedom compared with today's mollycoddled world, in which any sign of exuberance or curiosity in the unknown is seen as ASBO potential.
Mike Mitchell, Spalding, England
Has something been missed? Not a long time ago I read that the invention which has helped mans progress the most by far in the last century was the humble bicycle..It enabled millions to visit nearby villages and prevented the interbreeding which would have otherwise occurred.
ed bradbury, bournemouth, dorset
my view on the collapse of atheism..My daughter ,a catholic is married to a Moslem and has 4 children .I as a non-believer am interested to see what will be the outcome of their eventual religious beliefs. ,(if any). Children are not stupid and will come to realise that its an accident of birth which can determine ones religion. (if not I'll tell them) All over the world with cheaper travel young people are roaming,meeting and falling in love with faces they find more interesting than in their homeland and inter-faith marriages will increase enormously
Its just as likely that religion as we know it will collapse.
ed bradbury, bournemouth, dorset
As a GP, I have seen enormous changes in the last twenty years which have greatly enhanced my opportunities to help my patients improve their lives. The information revolution has vastly expanded wealth in many countries that used to be very poor, notably in Eastern Europe and Asia. But the greatest change the world has seen has been - as Mr Parris implies - the collapse of atheism, especially in Eastern Europe and Asia. Secular "humanism", in all its forms, has been seen to fail and has been decisively rejected. And, as Western European populations decline and are recolonised from the East, the same will shortly happen here.
Desmond Persaud, Wimbledon, London, UK
The Egyptians invented most things. We've been going backwards ever since.
jj, Cambs, UK
Genetics - first mapped and utilised post 1990. Huge importance to the world, just the average person is not aware of the potential changes to our lives it can make.
Jashen, London, UK
It appears to me that Mr Parris is living on a different planet than most of us. Did he think in the 1950's that today he would find his pocket ringing from a communicator? The changes that have occurred in my lifetime post 1950 are considerable. Science has indeed moved forward. Unfortunately the greatest achievements are stuck in black ops military programs. Ever notice that the US military never uses any of it's advanced equipment until it considers it mostly obsolete. There is a good reason for that as it doesn't want any of it falling into the wrong hands thus giving away anything that the others didn't understand. The use of stealth fighters and bombers in the gulf war is but one example. Google search Steven Greer or Tom Bearden on the web and you will find that so much has advanced only to be hidden within the military. Unless this tech is released soon we are entering the point of no return as a planet. The technology is there. Demand disclosure now before it is too late.
Kevin, Grand Rapids, Michigan USA
About a month ago I watched a 1930's Marx Bros.comedy film A week ago sitting with my grandchildren I had to endure a Mr.Bean "comedy " No progress there then
ed bradbury, bournemouth, dorset
"IT has yet to represent much more than a huge convenience. Perhaps it will but so far its effect is to facilitate and accelerate. "
Piggy Kruger's 60 year model might be appropriate, as IT moves from a huge convenience for those who want to use it, to an absolute necessity for daily life. Think NIR, NHS spine, national road charging, chips in bins etc. The change will be at least as profound in its social effects as any of the C20 developments you list. The State will be able (be in no doubt about its willingness) to monitor individual behaviour in incredible detail and offer rewards and disincentives accordingly. Your personal choices will be known to authority not just in the moment but in a permanent record from birth to death. If you don't foresee the power of governments to control society through IT, ponder why the ID card you will have to pay for carries the statement "this card remains the property of the Secretary of State and can be withdrawn at any time".
Paul, Stafford,
In the past, we invested in the future and the progress helped everyone.
But for the past 40 years, we've tried to bribe everyone to be our friends.
It didn't work.
The question is will we return to investing in the future, or will we keep trying to bribe the barbarians (both domestic and foreign) until we're totally bankrupt, the system clapses and they find out they can't even feed half the populations they have without our help which we won't be able to give any more because they finally broke our back?
Ugly American, Las Vegas, USA
We may be on the verge of world shaping change, looking at patterns. From the Wall Street Crash of 1929 to the Great Stockmarket Crash of 1989, heralding another worldwide economic downturn, sixty years passed. From Pearl Harbour in 1941 to the Twin Towers in 2001, sixty years passed. From the Soviet Union"s creating the A-Bomb in 1947 or 1948, to a possible similar achievement by Iran in the near future, sixty years have passed. Does Mathew Parris really believe his own words?. I have no doubt there are great developments and secret technologies being perfected at this very moment, possibly the stuff of sci-fi dreams, kept ultra-secret for any military possibilities they may lend the possesser. The Times last week mentioned an explosion at CERN"s LHG, delaying research by several months. Was it an accident?. Is the USA"s Fermilab sharing information with CERN, or are they competing?. I would predict that within a decade, these paricle physics labs make NOW seem like a Dark Age.
Piggy Kruger, bridgwater, UK
No, it will not pass; and much of the world's cruelty and bloodshed in the last century stemed from the puerile belief that human nature was perfectable. Recognizing and accepting our limitations can in the future far better prepare us for intelligently dealing with mankind's natural shortcomings. What we cannot change, we must honestly manage; and we cannot manage what we neither recognize nor accept. Should our behaviorial aspirations ever prefer man's genetic engineering over nature's, we shall be on the path to extinction by our own hubris.
Michael Grable, Silver Spring, MD/USA
hmmm I wonder if a black person in America would say 'nothing of importance or new has happened after WWII' But that aside, do you really believe technology makes a difference in society and belief? There was so much discovered by the Greeks and Chinese in the BC era that was was abandoned and forgotten and it will happen again. We are faced with a social problem (how to get along) that has advanced very little compared with technology. And the saying :'you cannot stop progress' Total bull. History shows progress, both socially and technology wise, is stopped and reversed all the time. History shows every time new ideas and ways of life arise, a backlash of the old ways rears it's head and eats the change. It's the terrible weight of history.
Charlie Beer, San Rafael, CA
Good People,
Those who are superior to you in background, breeding, and/or station do not
_wish_ to see any changes. In fact, we would prefer that you not even discuss such things, and are prepared to take any necessary measures to ensure that you desist from doing so.
Is that clear?
Winthrop Dunghill , Nantucket, MA, USA
Few contributors here have mentioned the environmental aspects of post-WW2 change; that is, the growing impact of human activities on the biosphere, the growing awareness of those impacts, the emergence of new technologies to cope with those impacts, and the growing realisation that our civilisation will have to be radically reconfigured in order to remain ecologically viable. Look at the hugely influential pre-WW2 innovations Martin listed - "automobiles, aeroplanes, the jet engine, electricity, telephones, radio, television, refrigerators, washing machines, industrial mass production" - and it is clear that many of them have been greatly altered in recent decades. The pattern is one of moving towards technologies that require less input from nature (oil, steel, coal, etc) and which create less output into the natural world (pollution - CO2, CFCs, etc). We may look back on the current period as the one in which industrial civilisation learned it had to live within its means.
Sean Maher, Melbourne, Australia, VIC
Humanism's belief in the essential goodness of man wasn't the answer to society's ills when the Enlightenment philosophers proposed it, and time has only proven the point. Like communism, liberal humanism only looks good on paper--it doesn't work when you add actual humans, even the best of whom are selfish and fearful. And let's face it, it isn't always the "best" of us who rise to power.
It's counterproductive to continue pretending that man is capable of evolving into a perfect being who will create a perfect society. History--which looks no different than today's headlines--shows us the dangerous fallacy of that dream.
Humans can rise to great heights, yes. We can create beauty, make sacrifices, show compassion. But we aren't capable of making a heaven of Earth, because our spiritual toolbox is half-empty. The best we can do is be honest about what humanity is, and remember the lesson of the tower of Babel.
Deborah Shepherd, Midland, U.S./Virginia
That was a very long and ill-informed rant.
If you think that nothing has moved on, insist on having only pre-1950s treatment next time you are in hospital.
Tom Oaklely, Cambridge,
"Much food comes from chemicals or sawdust, or in frozen standard bricks." Kampffert was right about that one. Have you visited a takeaway recently? Well, don't.
Janet, London,
may I add a p.s to my letter " and will be for a very long time to come"
ed bradbury, bournemouth, dorset
I have only to look at religious belief throughout the world today (and see contributors comments in the "miracle" debate) to conclude that whatever advances were made in either half of the last century ,we are still in the dark ages.
ed bradbury, bournemouth, dorset
This is a wonderful article, but I think it too quickly generalises from major scientific ideas to all those that hold sway over our lives. What would surely seem revolutionarily different (to them for better or worse) to someone transported from 50 years ago in one bound, would be the utter, utter transformation of social norms (over race, class, gender, patriotism, deference, authority). To give just one example: in just fifty years there has been a shift, perhaps never before experienced in its breadth and depth, in the life expectations women have, the relationship between men and women (and men and men, and women and women), the way we interact, and the broader notions of how we should behave. To live as a man or a women now, and to live then, is to live very differently indeed. So too with race. That these changes had no invention dates, no eureka moments, or can trace roots of ideas far back, doesn't make them any less profound. And to many of us this does feel like progress.
M. Coakley, Brooklyn, USA
I will agree with your article. We have entered a period of no exit.
NP, Birmingham,
If you meet a man who has walked on the surface of another planet you can guarantee one thing about him. He will be old. No young man has done so.
Notice that every quarter the government reports economic growth of such and such a percent, but the two kids, car, mortgage and family holiday lifestyle of your parents is now out of reach? What they've done is to count women's involvement in the formal labour market as "growth". Then when inevitably the education system collapsed and everyone had to go to university to catch up what they didn't learn at school, that was counted as "growth" too. Then the casualisation of unskilled workers was counted as "efficiency savings", never mind that Bloggs the feather-bedded cleaner was at least providing for his family and keeping his boys out of trouble. Some growth.
An excellent artice.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
I disagree with the comments that the world has not changed in the past 50 years. In fact it has changed even in the way it changes. Instead of the mentioned breakthroughs, like the discovery of electricity, the last 50 years has provided more in breadth than it maybe has in depth. Not only do we have more fields of expertise but these fields are more advanced than ever. We now even have more integration between these departments and in a sense we are shaping the world more fervently. Maybe with this progression there is less distinction; each advance seems just an expansion of the last. We are making remarkable developments but maybe we are losing the awareness and importance of these advances. Our job for the next 50 years is to streamline these advances into a process we can all appreciate and benefit from instead of merely query.
William Roden, Birmingham, UK
Matthew Parris is wrong.
Lest anyone disagree with me I offer two related examples: The transistor (invented in 1947) and the integrated circuit.
These are clearly two of the greatest and most influential advances ever made by man.
HJ, Reading, UK
Scientific progress has not stopped, but our belief that it will solve our problems has. Perhaps in the next 50 years we will rediscover the importance of our Christian heritage. As a scientist, I have learned that science will never solve all our problems. We need to keep searching for ultimate meaning and purpose elsewhere.
Alan, Redhill, Surrey
Human nature never changes but technology amplifies its effects. The terrorists petard turns into a nuclear weapon. The doctors leaches into penicillin, X-rays to MRIs. With CCTV, mobile phones, emails, databases and search engines the state can spy on us to either protect or enslave. Does the chance of a significantly better life outway the price we may have to pay for it. Perhaps it's time for technology to stop.
Tom Roberts, Derby, UK
"Others thought a liberal humanism and, of course, science would do it.". Others have remarked on science's continuing contribution. But Matthew is right about a change of Zeitgeist - there is far less optimism, far more resignation, far less participation in politics and far more distrust of the whole system. Is this an over-correction to our previously naive credulousness? Whatever, it is liable to cripple our attempts to tackle our problems, for which liberal humanism still offers the best approach. We have to believe in human agency, the human capacity to find ways of living on the planet in (comparative) peace and in balance with what it will sustain. A liberal humanist open society offers the best chance to engage all the available talents. It will not be easy - but with today's pervasive cynical despair it will surely be impossible. Cynicism is a self-fulfilling prophesy. Today's clever "treasonable clerks" must be asked if being right is so precious to them.
David J F Pollock, London,
Total nonsense of course.; and naturally written by a law graduate not a scientist. To say that there has been little or no scientific advancement over the past 50 years shows breathtaking ignorance. There has probably been more science (and technology) "done" in the last 50 years than in the rest of human history. Just because aeroplanes still have 2 wings a couple of jet engines doesn't mean they are the same as they were in the 1950's. They are now made of carbon-fibre composites, have aerodynamics based on computational fluid dynamics and have engines which operate at temperatures 1000 centigrade above the metal's melting point. I suggest Matthew stays in more rather than wasting his time going to dinner parties and chattering to similarly ignorat arts graduates.
towcestarian, northants, UK
Unravelling of DNA. Cloning; and therefore the ability to create life. Women's control of fertility - an absolute revolution in itself. Only a few of obvious advances since the last war, with huge implications for the future. What universe is Matthew Parris living in?
kate, oxford,
On the nail as usual. My concern is that we could actually be going backwards. Taking religious superstition seriously (as long as it's not Christianity) now seems to be required whereas "science"` is something to be seen with suspicion. Carl Sagan wrote an excellent book just before he died; The Demon Haunted World - science as a candle in the dark. So far it seems to be playing out. The candle is guttering.
Ray Warren, Plymouth,
Maybe life seems to have gound to a halt in matthews world. I suggest he gets himself a technical understanding and then reads "The World is Flat" by Paul Friedman for an understanding on how technology continues to change the World at what seems to me to be an exponential rate. For example, Matthew goes on about how travel has not really changed completely forgetting that technology is being deployed in an attempt to prevent that need. The next big thing happening now is Virtual Presence. This will solve multiple problems especially reducing the need for Business Travel and all the time, cost and CO2 that entails.The early systems now being deployed are impressive - lets see what they look like in 10 years.
Neill, maidstone, uk
what rubbish. hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty in the last 50 years, medical advances have saved millions of lives, IT has revolutionised the way we work, shop, enjoy leisure, foreign travel has mushroomed, social freedoms unimaginable 50 years ago are commonplace in much of the world, and the global stock of ideas - scientific, philosophical, artistic - is more profoundly rich than at any time in human history.
jim poyser, manchester, uk
I might mention contraception, and epidural anaesthesia (rather useful in childbirth). And ultra-sound scans. And much more of immediate relevance to many people, not all of them women.
Well, I suppose you can't think of everything...
NL, Brussels, Belgium
There was an extensive article about this in the New Scientist a few months ago. It postulated that one reason for the hiatus in new discoveries is that we've picked all the 'low hanging fruit' that's easy to discover! Steel hulled ships, radio, petrol & diesel infernal combustion engines, flight, etc.
The rate of new discoveries may slow down naturally.
Still, bio and nano technologies, artificial intelligence, and as yet unknown advances in physics may give future historians of C21 something to look back on in the same way mechanical engineering has of C19 and C20?
paul newbold, sheffield, england
The World Wars may have hastened developments but most of the discoveries were in times of relative peace - very little was discovered in war but the concentrated exploitation of knowledge that warfare brings made change faster. Mass transportation, power generation and communication are based on 19th or early 20th century discoveries. The basis of IT is the transistor, another invention of the first half of the 20th century.
I'm not sure though about Matthew's pessimism - it may be that after the consumer revolution, which is what the mass exploitation of technology has wrought, the next steps forward are around humanity adjusting to this new world. The 19th and 20th centuries looked for answers in novel technologies, perhaps the 21st will look less for novelty and more for stability and social change.
Ted Coffin, East Knoyle, UK
Mathew has actually pointed out why there has been no movement forward. If you analyse the major changes, they all are based around two World Wars, which due to the upheaval they imposed on the world poulation pushed forward the social and technical changes that we have witnessed up to 1950.
So does Mathew want another major conflict to engulf the world and so move us up to the next technological and social breakthrough?
B Wight, Glasgow, UK
Given that the basic nature of the human beast appears not to have changed much in 40,000 years, I wouldn't be looking for a breakthrough anytime soon.
Ken Leyland, Liverpool, U.K.
It is amazing! Our space program is going back 35 years to Apollo-style craft. A step backward because they knew how to build things back then that simply worked..
Technology seems to be in a stage of continual 'tinkering' and slowly improving what has already been built.
I didn't realize this before,. but now I see you're correct.
New thinkng is facing obstacles of liability, fear and 'old-think'.
I am a Biomedical Equipment Technician. It seems that anything new is usually a remake of a previous product..nothing really new. ( More expensive, though.)
Thank you for the wake up call.
George Chiasson, Milledgeville, Georgia, USA
Hopefully in 2050 I will look back and say..the first 30 years of my life were great..the next 10 .not much happened.The next 10 years and more were exciting.. then things changed.Having suffered a while to put the thing right the public got conned into thinking the grass was greener elsewhere.The next 10 years were difficult to say the least..from progress we went to..backwards?yet stilll the guy in the street kept the incubents in power.During the next 10 years I received a pension..about 20% of the national average wage and was told this would become less over time.My local council was soon to be bankrupt.About this time someone mentioned ideals,idealism and ideology..betterment of humanity.My children..and grand children have NOTHING to look forward to.The pensions will be totally inadequate.No doctors,no Dentists.nothing..The world has gone backwards since ??1969?In 2050 I will be 110+hope my sex life is better then
david, Barnsley, S.Yorks
I don't know, Mr. Parris - a well-tailored suit and tie can look quite spiffing.
Kevin, London,
Gosh no. Just think of Social "Science", post-modernist textual analysis, performance and conceptual art.
All the really crucial stuff is post-WWII.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/US