From the window of my flat in London I can watch the Thames as the tides and seasons change. March is a kind of turning point. The river now is full of surprises, forever distracting me from my work. As the skies keep changing, so does the water's apparent colour: blue-grey to brown, to greeny-grey flecked with white, to almost black. The spring tides rush in and out and violent eddies trouble the surface that, agitated by who knows what beneath, can almost seem to boil. And sometimes the March wind, pushing against the flow of the tide, whips the waves into strange, sharp, almost stationary peaks - the current running one way, the wind the other.
When weather, wind and currents are on the turn, say yachtsmen, a curious, choppy and deceptive water (they call it “an uncertain sea”) can be the result. Such a sight is troublesome not only to the sailor's calculations, but to his spirit.
I think we in Britain are on such a sea in March 2008. The economic wind seems to be gusting one way, while the optimistic language of politicians gusts another. Most of my countrymen, in the backs of their minds, harbour doubts and worries about the future; yet few are sure enough to let it spoil their Bank Holiday plans.
TV monitor in hand, I can flick from a worried-looking banker talking about turbulence in the world's stock markets, the possibility of another bank failure and the drying up of credit, to David Cameron at his party's spring conference, cooing about ways of letting parents take six months' paid paternity or maternity leave after the birth of a child, with their jobs guaranteed on return. Or I can follow the argument of a woman indignant that a potential employer did not give her a job on the ground (she suspects) that he had realised she was pregnant. The injustice of it!
My eye can move from a Times column by Anatole Kaletsky, full of hope that all will be well with the world economy, to pages dripping with something close to apocalyptic language. I can walk into a poncified gastro-pub near Canary Wharf on a Tuesday night to find no table available until 10, and a room packed with smart, coolly dressed under-40s businesspeople paying £23 for a small piece of steak, with the offer of a bottle of wine for £200, chalked on to a faux homespun blackboard... but note that the waiters and waitresses are young people from Paris who cannot find work in France. And I walk home past a giant, moving electronic display of world stock market prices, with arrows pointing down.
The newspapers have been full of Budget news and reaction, into which words and phrases such as “robust”, “withstand”, “bubble” and “well placed to weather the storm” recur. I see pictures of the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, with the sweet, shallow eyes of one of my llamas, strangely uncomprehending, registering not even fear, as he stands blank, passive and passionless at the dispatch box and drones from a script about a return to previous levels of growth in just a year or so - all being well - and how the “economic fundamentals” are sound.
Meanwhile, the politics pages and TV discussions are full of babble about the key role in the community played by post offices; or Easter holiday congestion on Britain's roads; or whether it's fair that your concessionary bus pass should depend on your postal code; and whether the nationwide scheme for free bus travel for pensioners will be properly funded; and whether doctors will or won't grudgingly work some extra hours at weekends or in the evenings.
In the Commons Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, asks why Gurkhas who retired before 1997 cannot get permission to stay in Britain, and it seems like a big issue; and Mr Cameron asks about whether the Prime Minister will meet the Dalai Lama, and roars of support greet Gordon Brown's reply because MPs understand it. Exchanges on the credit squeeze and world economy draw only confused mutters.
And there's no great debate about the world's or Britain's economic prospects because what is there to say except “fingers crossed”? Over the Thames the metallic clutter of huge cranes above the Isle of Dogs stays rigidly in place, steel arms swinging slowly across the sky, building new skyscrapers: offices and homes for office workers; and they are extending all the platforms on the Docklands Light Railway so the trains can take an extra car because the growing pressure of commuter numbers threatens to overwhelm the service.
Over the weekend I watched again that Peter Sellers classic, Being There. Simple-minded Chance, who has never left his employer's house, watches television obsessively. There are sets in every room, and with short attention span he flicks mindlessly, trivially, from programme to programme, from drama to humour to tragedy to an advertising break. These images are his world. One day he has to leave. Walking for the first time the mean streets of a Washington slum, he is baited by a gang of proto-hoodies. He stares at them point blank, flicking his TV monitor desperately. But they don't go away and he doesn't understand why.
Watching Mr Darling deliver an impotent Budget, his Prime Minister sitting leadenly beside him, you could easily imagine both men flicking urgently at their TV monitors, wondering why the picture wouldn't change according to their preferences. It always did before.
Who knows what's happening? Perhaps nothing, after all. Perhaps this will all blow over. But what unsettles me goes deeper than a sense of mystery about the future. At most junctures in history there arises the feeling of a lull before a possible storm. Heck, we were in a worse state in 1945, or 1979. Danger was more imminent in the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 posited bigger unknowns for the future. But at these crossroads the air was full of ideas: strong ideas, competing ideas, confident philosophies, angry dissent. People had policies. Ideologies clashed. Politicians and thinkers jostled to present their plans. Leaders led.
But what distinguishes this hiatus in 2008 from those earlier forks in the road is the impassivity of our politics, and the idleness of political debate, as we wait. There is a sense of vacuum.
There was not in 1979, as there is now, this curious hollowness in the air. Where today is the bold advocacy, the impatience to persuade, the urgency of argument? Where are the shouts of “Here's how!”? It is as though the stage were set for some kind of theatrical climax, but peopled only with stage hands and the rattle and murmur of the scene-shift. Where are the leading actors, the big voices, the great thoughts?
Pictures of David Cameron in his kitchen, a family scene sweetly contrived to frame his thoughts on paternity leave, or whatever, and images of the passionless figure cut by Alistair Darling at the dispatch box, his grey stare charged with all the philosophical depth of a shop-window mannequin, stick in my mind. Are these the spirits of the political age?
Dear Matthew, I can only surmise that if you can contemplate the world so serenely from your London apartment that all is well.
Ian cheese, London, UK
Mr Parris's portrayal of the unwitting British shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic as a storm brews ahead is disturbing.
I'm not a Lib Dem voter, but as regards our economy at least, Vince Cable seems to have a head full of wisdom and a belly full of fire.
Lynda, Edinburgh,
I think you are really a closet Cameron fan stuck in a Thatcherite rut. You are very critical of politicians and policies but you don t give examples of what you think is the proper alternative for either. You still exhibit a fuehrer complex. Who is this Wunderkind you have in mind and what are his magical, mystical policies that will . . . that will probably, drag us back to the last century, for which you seem to yearn.
Henry Percy, London, UK
It is time... for.. an ENGLISH PARLIAMENT.
Let us all go our separate ways,at least then we can vote in or out the people who do nothong for us.
Ray Brooke, Leven, England
The world might be going to hell in handbasket ,but this from Matthew is mostly fresh air, except for another little leak from the Parris mindset.
The lady who wanted /needed employment without prejudice against her condition. "The injustice of it ", says our commentator with, I suspect a degree, of sarcasm. Against what - the triviality,or that someone so burdened should not burden an employer ?
Prejudice, if not a pregnant partner should be within Matthews experience and though his financial position is secure, in some relationships both partners need work.
Comment by all means, but remember from your fortunate "faux " position in the order of things not everyone has the tallent to provide for themselves a view across the Thames and acres in the country.
( this, would you belive, from a long time admirer of Matthew Parris)
robert everitt, wolverhampton,
This Nu Labour government reminds me of the unfortunate 2005 air crash in Greece. If you remember all the passengers had died of asphyxia, but the plane kept going on autopilot, until the unfortunate vehicle slammed into a mountainside.
This government are effectively all dead too, no real activity, no real reason for being in power, just zooming on auto waiting for the electorate to despatch them at the next general election. Sad, we really deserve better than this.
David, Brighton, UK
Like a pub pundit in New Zealand in the 60's used to answer gut-crunching queries (Well, normally on rugby or horsies), 'You could be right, then again you could be wrong'.
What stuns myself, talking casually with Brits in Spain and other lush places, is how much they know about the country they left 'because of all the foreign migrants' -yes, they ALL absorb Daily Mail crap. Germans, Scandinavians, French, Dutch, etc, are far more clear-sighted and, well, sober.
Vino Rosso, Oslo, Norway
OK Matthew...How about you? Why don't you step up?
G Pasley, Bodden Town, Cayman Islands
There's no mystery to the hiatus. The politicians know their power is increasingly circumscribed by the EU, that recreation of 19th Century autocracy, the journalists know it and so only trouble themselves with political trivia, and the electorate are beginning to realise their vote can change little in how the country is governed.
The only interesting question is how democracy reinstates itself, hopefully peacefully.
peter, birmingham,
That is the problem of the current turmoil. Nothing seems to be real. Tough meat is missing! In 1979, you might remember seeing Callaghan ramping in front of IMF for a lending. It was real, in fact the humiliation of it...
But now? Nothing really changes. No Job? Pff...Since 1970, as you noticed, you britons, there's no job in France (!), problems with banks? Pfff state is here for you...Cost of life? Nothin' more than a bubble or a problem of concurrency (for France in fact!) or sth else...
No Callaghan ramping over IMF wall, no bombs. The vast global network makes all that so "unreal". We're used to a quiet pace of a living with no shocks or what so ever...
If at the corner, reality comes back; well, "there will be blood" I'd agree.
Guillaume, Nantes, France
The last days of Rome come to mind. We have allowed ourselves to become so bloated with debt, and so comfortable in our hyper-consumerist lifestyles (shopping is now a hobby!) that we simply don't have the guts or the initiative for the fight.
I think once people start losing their jobs firebrand politics will come into vogue and the divisions between left and right will increase slightly.
James Milne, Glasgow,
Look at our politicians, my M.P lives in Surrey in a mansion, is a multi-millionaire -and Nu-Labour, what does he know,or care about the average working (or non-working Joe), its name on the letterheads and a nice pension,oh, and if the Governments books dont balance-dont worry this will all be blamed on the yanks and just increase council tax and stealth taxes till the pips come out-they wont mind......and the H.M. Opposition?...well right....
Steve, coventry, uk
When will someone have the courage to to stop blaming the politicians and start blaming middleclass britain. The politicians simply try to satisfy the gullibles insatiable appetite. It is better to be popular than to be right.
Fred Brough, Alltilac, 19120 France
The party's over, life was never meant to be like this - we're going back to nature where we belong.
Sage, UK,
Considering that the resource rent from North sea oil has been squandered over three decades and that the U.K. is on the non-winning (dare I say it, losing) side in the Middle East, no wonder you appear adrift in the brave new cashed up world.
Alberto Tedechi, Perth, Western Australia
We have indeed endured an era of mediocrity not just in the UK but in world politics , Bush Blair ,Berlusconi, Brown maybe a ban on people with surnames starting with the letter B entering politics is the answer.
Its interesting though following the American democratic nomination battle there is a desire for a new way.
Barack Obama has captured the imagination of so many because he sees this and knows what the people want is someone brave enough to tackle the important issues however painful that process is going to be.
The World is entering into a very uncertain stage and we need strong ,couragous and compassionate people in politics who have the insight to meet the huge demands this planet faces.
"Return to previous levels of growth of growth in a year or so" doesnt quite cut it Mr Llamma
Chris, Brisbane, Qld ,Australia
One of Matthew's former great leaders famously said, "you've never had it so good" and who is to say it has not got better. People are living longer, healthier and better lives in spite of the centrally dominated leaderless vacuum, of which he constantly complains. The country may be temporarily overdrawn to fund its lifestyle, but it was inevitable that sooner or later,someone had to call "time gentlemen please". Yesterday's assets may soon become tomorrow liabilities, but as much as we would like to blame our vacuous leaders, it was through personal choice.
May I suggest Matthew goes back to watching the eddies and tending his llamas. Brown and Darling may not inspire us, Cameron may wish to lead us incorrectly up one way streets, but in spite of them, we will survive. The country and the world may not be perfect but when was it ever?
M. Fishman, London, UK
I think we'd all better be on our guard and not mistake the meaning of Mr Darling's mutterings when he starts talking about seeds of growth.
Kevin Smith, Great Waldingfield, England
Yep, makes you nervous doesn't it?
judy, Liverpool, England
I think there is a sense of lull because the government is running out of money. It is more like a hangover than the quiet before the storm. The question they are asking themselves is not: did we really drink that much, but did we spend that much ? It will take some months for them to sober up and take stock of the new realities. At the moment they are in denial.
Gordon Brown just this week was boasting at PMQ about the number of new jobs created. So weak ! Most have gone to foreigners.
Anthony, London,
The amount of weak minded sheep we have on this topic is beyond a normal persons comprehension. The knight in shining armour will be the real financial controllers of this planet. They have put all of you losers into the position they wanted to, way before this latest supposed crisis.
Lets face it, the New World Order is just about here, and it is time to pay the ferryman. You will accept their offer to remove all the bad news if you allow them to rule the planet. There will be a cull of the over populated planet Earth, that will make the Nazi and Stalinist period look like a minor incident.
But dont worry boys and girls, if you follow blindly you will have a job that is paid by way of housing, food and order. Just remember that those that are identified as potential leaders will pay the price, along with every non compliant through ability or sickness. A perfect world for all the little gnomes.
Tony Blair, Margaret Thatcher and many others are all members of the club already.
Mike, Edinburgh, Republic of Scotland
Why should the political leadership be worried? Their pensions are secured by the tax payer and are not subject to risk in the financial markets like those of us who work in the private sector. They will receive their retirement package whatever happens to the economy
Ian, Jacksonville, Florida
It is hard to even imagine the stench of the sewer from the top of an ivory tower, but it is there. Everything is always there, though we will only see it all by looking. So look to the future and see tomorrow in the eyes of the young, then realise that your own time has past and hand the reins over. We will not be overlooked forever.
Thomas, London,
The greatest security risk is not terrorist, but short selling by hedge funds which threaten global markets and companies.
Where is the leader who forgo the taxes from stock market gambling profits and ban short selling?
Ray, London,
The current situation is akin to an English summer. A few lovely sunny days, getting increasingly hotter until it's almost unbearable; then a real humdinger of a storm.
Gordon kept to the Conservatives spending plans for the first NuLabour term (nice pleasantly warm financial 'weather'); during the scond term, he started taxing, spending and borrowing (financial temperature rising); in the third NuLabour term, the financial 'heat' has grown to unbearable levels. The storm is imminent ..... we can all feel it and it's making us very nervous. Deep down, we know that Gordon/ Alistair and NuLabour in general have made the situation in the UK worse than it needed to be, and they haven't got a clue how to improve things - except 'fingers crossed.'
Donna Walker, Effingham, Surrey
Unfortunately for both the country and the Tories we have to endure two more years of this Government before they are forced to call an election. Till then there is little that Cameron and co can do except prepare. If they show their hand now, Gordon will simply steal their best tricks. Meanwhile we can only hope that there will be something left of Britain to govern when Labour is eventually turfed out: as it was in 1979.
Adrian Gilbert, Tonbridge,
When the prime minister of a major European country cannot change the tax on long life light bulbs without the approval of 27 other countries how are we as a country to get out of this mess.
If the pound falls much more we could join the Euro at parity. Perhaps this is Gordon's aim.
Robert, Worcester, UK
Right about no leader. There was Thatcher, then there was Blair, and in between was an interregnum when we managed without a prime minister. This is another interregnum
John Ledbury, Kings Lynn, England
'If you ain't got it, don't spend it' and 'don't use a credit card' two pieces of advice my father gave me, which mean I've never borrowed money and am now at 30 typing this e-mail from the safety of a tranquil cafe in Thailand.
One question I'd like to know the answer to is house prices. In the U.K. they've been going up by 15% (not exact forgive me) for the past 10 years or so. By contrast wages have barely kept up with inflation and in many cases have fallen behind it, making us in real terms less well off. So in light of that what allows us to pay for this fantastic 15% gain in house prices - credit?
Where does credit come from?
When I was back in the U.K. at Christmas I read the 3 main sources of our wealth are currently property, the financial market and the public sector. That doesn't sound good
Average household debt???? Perhaps Throeau can help us 'simplify, simplify, simplify'.
Another issue outsourcing to Asia - we're told the jobs are replaced but by what?
Paul , Chiang Mai , Thailand
... Or, Matthew, maybe this hiatus from the constant clamour by the media and opposition politicians for instant soundbites is just what we need right now. There are no ideological divisions between the parties at the moment, so let's not manufacture any false ones. The government is taking broadly the correct approach to the credit crunch. Cameron should stop posturing over trivia at PMQs and instead support Brown in steering us calmly through this crisis.
Bob, London,
'TV monitor'. What do you mean by this Matthew? Maybe a TV remote control unit? Who uses this term? I've heard of a TV screen referred to as a 'monitor', but never a TV remote.
And sometimes it's best for a leader to say nothing. No point in adding to the media panic.
andrew, cirencester, uk
No wonder we are all worried sick. We have a huge crisis of values on our hands. Faced with economic crisis we know we should change our lifestyle but also with the increasing urgency to halt climate change we also have to change our values. At the moment and we are running scared, in cold turkey. We have been used to consuming and feeding our spending habit when we want. We need to find joy in other ways. We need leaders to show us the way. Not just politicians but the creatives and the scientists.
Carol Doughty, London,
Politics is like this because the politicians know they have no power to do anything.
The EU-SSR, in the desigantion of Vladimir Bukovsky, decides it all; MPs pretend that that is not so.But we, the voters know the truth.
What else should we do but "eat, drink - and borrow"?
The last real decision was to keep the pound, nothing significant since then.
john, london,
A. Bell - absolutely. And they wonder why nobody votes anymore and intelligent people are leaving the country.
Geoff SAUNDERS, Meylan, France
They are all career politicians, thinking if the worst comes to the worst then they'll jump ship, get jobs as consultants or whatever in private industry, and that will be that. They'll be sorted. They don't have ideologies any more. It's just - do whatever it takes to stay in power. Nick any other parties ideas if they look like vote-winners. Philosophies? Forget it. It's all focus groups, investigation committees, headline grabbing, ill-thought "initiatives" They've all got Teflon-coated, mud-resistant suits and they feel no shame.
A.Bell, Hamilton, Scotland
Absolutely right Matthew !!! Phone King Arthur VIA the lady of the lake !!!!!
Ian Payne, WALSALL,
Well, Matthew always treads a delightfully uneasy path between whimsical rambling and blinding insight. His last few columns though have shown how effortlessly he is able to slice apart the puff and humbug of this bogus, fraudulent and self interested bunch of charlatans, who where we need statesmanlike governance only provide self interested spin.
I work in government and feel the tremours of this centralist regime every time there is a new headline and its corresponding knee-jerk 'initiative' or policy change ripples down before we've had a chance to consolidate the last misguided and inconsistent one. We are truly governed by vain, puffed up, idiots whose only vision is of that of next week's polls.
If only the Conservatives had a quarter of the perspicacity, wit and expressive power of Mr Parris - Cameron could dice and fry Gordon Brown every single PMQ time.
Matthew - please get back on the opposition benches, your country (what's left of it) needs you!
PaulH, malvern, worcestershire
A lyrical, and utterly lucid, voicing of our feelings, Mr Parris.
Thank you.
sandra, london,
Matthew is right here. He senses the storm....It iwill be big and it will be scary. I believe it will see a drop of between 10-20 % of GDP over the next few years.
As vacant politicians witter, the base of the economic system is on the edge of collapse. The papers chunter about this weird beastie called the 'credit crunch', as if it is a force of nature. It is not - it is the cumulative force of all of us, each of our desires to have something we can not afford now, our desire to grow rich on the proceeds of doing no work, our greed and stupidity.
I think that Matthew has sensed this, but not put his finger on it. The credit crunch is the reckoning for OUR stupidity, and we need to know it, and maybe learn a lesson from it. The world does not owe us a living....Time to get back to the values of thrift, self reliance and hard work. The party is over.
Mark A , Dunedin, New Zealand
YES!!
Robert Gill, Galashiels, Scotland
Words, words, words, words: Too many words....too little substance.
Garth Rex, Glendale Heights, USA
Correct, Matthew, and uncannily prescient. Wait. It is coming.
Jeremy Taylor, Saint John, NB, Canada
"There is a sense of vacuum"
Its been at the heart of political life in this country for over 10 years - there is an anthem for this vacuum and it goes ...
'Things can only get better ......."
There is no leadership - because there are no leaders ! Just the same old spin chasing the same old votes.
The pain of the credit crunch is yet to be felt - but its coming ! The western world has been mis 'led' for far too long.
Dave , Swindon, Wiltshire
We are still waiting for Mr Browns vision after 24 weeks.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Fabulous article. I particularly like 'sweet shallow eyes of one of my llamas'.
Roddy Campbell, Christchurch, New Zealand
Yep, we're doomed. Peak Oil and major climate change just around the corner and politicians in general are clueless. We're DOOMED.
Kieran, Leeds, UK