In my favourite Brer Rabbit story, our eponymous hero calls on Mr Fox to do
literally anything - barbecue him, drown him, skin him alive... whatever -
except inflict upon him the horror of being thrown into the briar patch. Fox
accordingly throws bunny into brambles. Bunny dives straight for hidden
burrow. Escapes.
Next week, as Thursday's by-election cheers and boos subside, Brer Cameron and
his crew will be calling on Gordon Brown to do literally anything - make way
for a Conservative Government, hold an early election, precipitate a
leadership contest, resign... whatever - except inflict upon us the horror
of two more years of his wretched administration.
The moral is clear. For Mr Brown to carry on regardless is the Opposition's
bramble patch. There lies their burrow. There lie their best hopes for a
whopping victory after a general election that they've had ample time to
prepare for. To those Labour sympathisers who call for the party to regain
its composure and carry its sickly leader through two more years of power, I
reply that this is exactly what David Cameron hopes for too.
As an observer, albeit Tory, who tries, however fitfully, to present a fair
picture to his readers, I can see as clear as daylight what the
Parliamentary Labour Party must do to save their party and its still-needed
influence on British history. It must fight the next general election
beneath the banner of a leader in whom it is possible to believe. That
person is not Gordon Brown.
A general election in 2010, which the Government had long despaired of winning
and in which the whole country regarded the Labour leader as a lame duck
whom his party had feebly decided to dispatch after rather than before the
election, could prove an absolute wipe-out. A 2010 general election where
the governing party had panicked at the last moment and changed its leader
in a death-bed conversion to the obvious, would bring Labour into total
public contempt. Yet, to my bafflement, it is towards one of these two
alternatives that the PLP seem to be marching.
Understand - I concede this at once - that I have no real feel for the culture
of the Labour tribe; but accept that I have some idea how Tories think. And
come with me, Government MPs, into the minds of David Cameron and his
frontbench team. Look through their eyes at the scene that confronts them -
you lot, on the benches opposite - and ask yourselves where in the long term
they see advantage. You do know, I think, that Mr Cameron has steady nerves.
What would an opposition leader with steady nerves be aiming for, if not the
prolonged, hard-pounding, two-year destruction of an incompetently led
Labour Government's morale, self-belief and national standing? Mr Brown is
there for bayoneting practice, until the Tory troops are ready.
Isn't this obvious? Can't you see why thinking Tories want the present
administration to limp wretchedly on for as long as our constitution allows
under a leader who has lost beyond retrieval the respect and the affection
of the electorate; and then to go down to a dreadful defeat in 2010 - hit so
hard they don't get up again for a decade? Don't you sense how relaxed is
the centre right at the possibility that Mr Brown will be given more rope -
two years' supply - before his party hangs itself? Don't you smell a whiff
of nervousness on the Right that Labour might, finally and after all, throw
itself from a bus speeding towards the abyss and pick itself up with a new
Leader who understands how to fight Tories? Why, Labour MPs, would you
positively opt for the agony of a leadership in its death throes being
played out slowly in a long, cruel, humbling spectacle, before the eyes of
the whole country and its news media?
Euthanasia has always been more tolerantly viewed on the Left than the Right -
so why choose for your own leader the lingering death and the saline drip?
But there's another reason, beyond the avoidance of Labour's slow
humiliation, for its MPs, trades unions and members to trigger change.
By soldiering on under a stumbling high-command, the party is giving the
Tories time to rearm, and giving the voters time to get used to the idea of
a Conservative government- in-waiting. As importantly, this
government-in-waiting is winning the time to get used to the idea that a
government-in-waiting really is what they are.
They are being offered two more years to work up a programme for government,
get the sums right, the ideas clear, the manifesto written and the message
strong. Already - haven't you noticed? - they are starting to walk and talk
like an incoming leadership. And when an opposition leader and his team see
themselves as ready to take power, the rest of us read the body language,
sense the subliminal confidence and start to see them that way too. Why give
them two more years to grow?
As of the end of May 2008, the Conservative Party is beatable. I doubt it
would be the likelihood, but it would be worth Labour's aiming for. A
stronger possibility is that a powerful Labour counter-attack now could
knock the Tory advance off balance and pin them back to their more core
support base. In any ensuing general election they could then be held to a
much narrower victory than looks likely on the present poll figures.
They could also be flustered into offering a dishonestly rosy prospectus for
government, renouncing in advance the bolder of their ideas for public
service reform, and making silly promises about generous future future
spending.
The consequence after such an election would be a narrower parliamentary
arithmetic in which 50 or more Labour MPs who on present trends look likely
to lose their seats, keep them: a post-election Commons in which a new
Conservative government had a slim majority, no real mandate for right-wing
reform, and an unrealistic manifesto that began to fall apart from Day One.
To lead a pre-election fightback that could deliver this, Labour must be
commanded by someone who understands Tories and their ideas; who gets the
logic of their political philosophy - and so can see how patchy and confused
is the Shadow Cabinet's effort so far to translate instincts into policy.
Blinded by hatred of the Right, Brown doesn't begin to understand what
Tories (or indeed the English) are about. Yet sitting behind Cameron and Co
at Prime Minister's Questions are a dozen of his own side who could pull
their own manifesto mercilessly apart, if they wanted to; and who understand
what a tentative, vulnerable, breakable and confused creature the
Parliamentary Conservative Party - as of May 2008 - still is.
It is into such minds that a successful Labour leader must enter. To
paraphrase Disraeli, a Labour Prime Minister in 2008 surveys on the front
bench opposite him a row of par-baked baps. By 2010, and with two more years
to be compared with Gordon Brown, they'll be tough cookies.
The message to Labour is clear. Get another leader and go soon.
Labour is now such a toxic brand, the most they can ask of a new leader is a lesser defeat than Gordon will deliver. Which means either Johnson or Benn--the only 2 in the cabinet who don't make decent people want to retch. Milliband will turn out to be New Labour's William Hague--if not Portillo!
David Allen, London, England
This wouldn't be a double bluff, would it Mathew? Perhaps this is the election to lose, as in 1992. Regards jeff Pollitt
Jeff Pollitt, Romiley, Cheshire
Excellent, a new leader, untainted by New Labour failure! Oops...ain't got any of those. Straw, Clarke, Milliband...Balls!
paul freeman, London, England
Excellent article - I just hope that the Labour Party rejects the message. It's not only Brown though that is at the root of the disenchantment with Labour. It is the whole Nu Labour enterprise. They have been rumbled as the authoritarian centrist government that they are. We will not be slaves.
Ian Burgess, Bristol,
While MP is correct in his assertion that Brown cannot win, I'd also propose that New Labour cannot win no matter who the leadership, and the entire party knows it. "It's the economy" is the answer to who will win the next election, and that cannot be fixed in time thanks to NL spendthriftyness.
Richard Evans, WGC, Herts
In accordance with your introduction, I think you have done a great job of persuading Gordon Brown to stay another two years, but I am not sure whether that is what you wanted to do.
Henry Percy, London, UK
Brown did most of the damage to Britain under Blair. Together they will go down in history as the two most incompetent ever, with Bush making up the trio. Now, Blair is kidding the arabs in his new highly paid part-time peacekeeping role. We don't need a new leader of labour we need a new leader.
Frederick, London, UK
We are going to suffer fall out from Browns policies for many years to come so people would do well to remember that when the tories are in power ( that is a racing certainty ). It amazes me that the focus is so much on the last year as PM without recalling all the robberies he committed under TB.
Gav, Essex, UK
Woefully out of touch, elitist, lacking in social skills. We knew all of that, and yet, we hoped. Since ducking a general election Brown has limped on from crisis to crisis - where as Blair would proceed with aplomb. Brown is simply an abomination.
Spencer, London,
They have to stick with Brown. Look on the Labour benches: do you see anyone, ANYONE with leadership potential? No - otherwise we wouldn't have got Brown in the first place.
Nick O, Varna,
i will even go further matthew...let them go for milliband or punnell.someone intellectually and emtionally confident to take on the tories.what we want is a descent fight for the big prize and he should immediately go to the country because fortune favours the brave.go for it mlliband or punnell!
john small, canterbury, uk
Parris, you're right about the pickle, but who takes over? The thickies in the Thick one's cabinet? The bitter on the backbenches? Beg Tony & his cronies to return? Milliband fell in my estimation after the individual carbon accounts. Nonentities like Straw. It's like Major - only midgets left.
Ken, Oxford,
I suspect that there is no good news on the horizon for the UK and the New Labour Juggernaut cannot easily manouver. Meanwhile there is no bull on the NL front bench who can cope with 2 years of the picadors. Labour must go to the polls now while the electorate still dreams.
Geoff, Sydney,
Brown and co should remember the Canadian Conservatives who went from Government to 2 MPs. Such is the dissatisfaction with Labour across all parts of the UK that this sort of scenario is far from impossible here too.
AJ, London, England
Matthew: I remember reading your column in The Investors Chronicle many years ago that the country would be better run if the Labour party faded away and we wwere given the choice between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Perhaps that happy situation is now not so far away!
Beth Williams, Reading, England
Viva la Revolution!
Goodbye dithering Brown, hello Scottish Independence & Cameron as English Prime Minister. Everyone wins.
Please given him, and the rest of ' the Raj' political asylum. We don't want them back.
John Mayer, Oslo,
J Kane, I don't know anyone who's underestimated Cameroon. Overestimated more like. Sure he's got a fully costed manifesto under his pillow like I've got a mad maggie thatcher poster in my bedroom. Keep dreaming! The sheep are desparate to believe that he's more than hot air meets car salesman.
A Thomas, Lanchester,
Dear oh dear Matthew. Why did you have to let the cat out of the bag and let them know what their one hope was??
It is blindingly obvious they couldn't have figured that out themselves.
Call yourself a Tory!
David Coomber, Shrewsbury, England
People continue to underestimate Cameron and I am sure that he already has a properly costed manifesto. Silence is golden or this bankrupt government will shamelessly steal the proposals. If Labour replace Brown the country will not stand for 2 unelected PM's. They're stuffed either way.
J Kane, Reading, UK
Very sorry not to play the old game, but new rules now apply. Whichever party is in power they still have the same basic problem. Everyone has over spent and got themselves into personal debt way beyond their means. It is now time to work and save not borrow and spend. The shopping spree is over.
Boris, Belgravia, London
Brown staying is only part of the problem. Labour have forgotten what they stand for. Old Labour values were abandoned along time ago in favour of pandering to the middle class. The electorate's perception of Brown and the party are the same: tired, weak, pathetic and desperate.
Time is up.
Paul, West Midlands,
I have just noticed on IMDB that the film Deathwatch (2002) had its dialogue authored by one Gordon Brown. How appropriate.
John, Edinburgh,
Replace Gordon with Lily Allen she almost got more support from the labour party than GB did earlier in the month, and at least we'd have a laugh while we all go broke!
am, letchworth,
I don't think this has anything much to do with Brown - under Blair the result would have been the same. A vaccuous administration has taxed and spent to the limit. The money has run out and they have nowhere else to turn.
We can now see what New Labour is and always has been - nothing but hot air!
Rob, Isle of Wight,
They can let Brown run the ship onto the rocks, or tear themselves apart with a leadership contest. Matthew counsels the latter option, so perhaps he favours the former. That is, unless he's a double agent. Wheels within wheels.
John B, Middlesbrough, UK
Tony Blair to return? ha ha!
After Cherie's memoirs?
How would he pay the mortgages on his 6(?) houses, the last one priced at £4.5 billion.
if they throw out Brown will the new one take Labour to the right or the left? And whichever direction this new leader choose what will the losers do?
TrevorH, OXON,
Spot on. The tories would love Gordo to lead labour into the election. He is the conservatives greatest electoral asset.
tone, cambridge,
The PM will beat cameron buyt mid terms blues will panick an poor cabinet into knifing him and replacing him with a kim campbell type figure.
John Names , Cornwall , UK
To my utter surprise Mr Parris's comments before Brown was elected were right; Gordon Brown has personality defects. I as a near life-long Labour supporter find him objectionable. For example, boasting to Andrew Morton that he has 'forced' school children to stay in full-time education.
James, London, UK
Mathew, there is no time to allow parties to play power games. This countrty faces an unprecedented economic crisis and we need someone to bravely demand that public spending must be drastically cut. Without that, we condemn our people to be the 'poor man of Europe'!
Steve Marchant, Broadhempston, UK
'A party must fight the next general election beneath the banner of a leader in whom it is possible to believe'. What no faith in your TP telling the truth. Your unhealthy hero worship of the oily Cameron is clouding your judgement. Take a very cold shower before you lose all credibility.
bert, hull,
Why? 9 months ago he was hailed a great leader + Cameron (even by TORY papers) as a busted flush. I know there are millions out there who act like sheep and follow what the Mail/Express/Times say (+ some Labour MP's) but Brown should sit back for 2 years mainly to thwart the press want him out now.
A Thomas, Lanchester,
Andy m,
£15bn a year subsidy to Scotland. Where is your evidence for this? A quite astonishing claim when oil is at $135 a barrel.
D J, Glasgow,
Brown will hang on tooth and nail for two more years -he hasn't finished shovelling English tax payers money up to Scotland,about £15B a year. He'llbe off to Scotland when he loses.Salmond wants a refendumin in 3 years. Why? More time to bring home the booty and easier to win under the Tories.QED
Andy m, London,
I think the only way Labour will be saved will be by Tony Blair riding back to the fray as an English General De Gaulle, and rescuing this sad party in its hour of need. It might have to get worse before Tony would consider such an action, but he's their only hope.
Martin, Coventry, Warwickshire (pre-ted teeth!)
If this is indeed the death rattle of New Labour, what new, all-saving name do they go for next? Perhaps Blue Labour?
Rob Tootell, Krakow, Poland
I thought the government should govern the country.
Whilst all this interesting controversy is going on over the 'limp government of Gordon Brown' and the Tory Party is in waiting with David Cameron as their leader, who is actually giving leadership to the country?
P VanEck, Plymouth, UK
Is it true that Tony Blair is taking soundings about a return to UK politics in time for the next election?
Nigel Hamley, Melbourne, Australia
For at least the next two years our finances are going to deteriorate, Labour's only chance is to replace Brown now and call an October election. They then have the possibility of a hung parliament. If they do nothing you are right it is downhill to political oblivion.
Tony Gee, London,
Cunning, a Trojan horse from Parris (nicely inverting the Greek mythology)! Give Labour good advice, knowing that the source is not exactly a trusted friend. Should sow yet more confusion / panic among our shambolic government and backbenchers.
2 Years for the Tories to build in any case!
ian Evans, Bedford,
Labour (note not New Labour) could turn this round in a month, a fairer simpler tax system leading to a more equal distribution of wealth, bring the troops home, stop meddling in schools and hospitals, clear the louts of the streets, bin ID cards, stop immigration, and remove all speed bumps.
Kevin, Leeds,
Brown was an enthusiastic advocate of that branch of corporatespeak called "change management".
He appears less keen to accept these ideas when he becomes the object of the change.
Brown has got to go.
mike, London,
If the Tories got into power tomorrow would anyone notice the difference?
This mob in power have Out-Toried the Tories for years,there is no choice in policy between the two the UK is more or less a One Party State now
At least we have the Nats in Scotland as an alternative.
Graham, Edinburgh,
I'm just reading Never Had It So Good history of Britain from 1956 to 1963. Fascinating stuff and a revelation that Labour connived to keep Macmillan as PM whilst the Tories were in office because he was perceived by them as stuffy and out of touch. In other words the election loser Brown has become
Logdon, Stockport,
The formula is this: from now on, for every month that Labour remains in power with Brown as PM, a year will be added to their upcoming era of opposition. Two more years of Brown = a whole generation in the wilderness. Please don't give the socialists any ideas about getting rid of him!
Andy, London,
Gordon is Cameron's key to Number Ten, but change the lock, viz, the election of James Purnell as Labour leader, and the Tories will be back in the burning-boat of being the second largest party in the next parliament. If he goes now, the strenuous and com-plicated Mr Brown will do for Cameron yet.
stuart williams, Burry port, Wales
All these things are of course true. However, the key issue which has rarely been raised during the latest round of campaigning is Europe, and a referendum. Despite all the failings of Mr. Brown and his cabinet, this issue is far more important as a motivating factor in the minds of British voters.
David, Cambridge, UK
The real danger for the country and the Conservatives is that Nulabour have an enormous amount of room to turn things around. There is huge scope for tax cutting by ditching crazy schemes such as the drug games, ID cards, NHS computerisation, eco-idiocies, etc.
Thankfully, they're too dim to do it.
Martin, Welwyn Garden City, England
Forget Brown and Cameron,what if Paddy Ashdown were to make a come back.He is a world figure and commands respect.He is both articulate and intelligent,and would be the only choice
Paul Widdis, morden, england
Labour must keep Gordon Brown to ensure the tories have the biggest majority which is necessary to unravel the mess that Labour has left in its wake
John heenan, bath,
The roots of Labour's inevitable defeat at the next election were in its M.P.'s failure to support Tony Blair in the two difficult years after the Iraq invasion.
In 2010, both major parties will stress their support of the Iraq action. For Labour M.P's, however, it will be 6 years too late.
arnoldo, Coventry,
The process of replacing Gordon Brown would be damaging for Labour internally and high risk electorally. They can hardly inflict another PM on the elecorate at a time of economic downturn. They would have to go to the country with a new leader. Is there anyone talented - or mad - enough to stand?
David C, Brussels , Belgium
I hope Labour is not so stuffed that Cameron feels no need to listen to the wishes of the electorate, for instance on abolishing the council tax and reforming the Scotland question. I'm still not sure he and his party aren't blinded by old fashioned thinking on such issues.
John Ledbury, Kings Lynn, England
He is unelected. He does not have the confidence of his party or the people. He should resign or call a general election. Just clinging on to the vestiges of power till the bitter end in the hope that an act of god will save him is just pathetic and everyone else but he can see it. A pity really.
John Morgan, Old Stratford, United Kingdom
Matthew,
You make the same mistake as most of the media in believing it is Mr Brown who is the problem.
The problem is what Mr. Brown represents - a tax and waste Govt. which, when people are facing spiralling living costs, responds by RAISING taxes!! They must go.
Gareth Lloyd, Crowthorne, UK
Labour will reject this move, blinded by their contempt for the English working class who they have never forgiven for choosing Thatcher and have sought to pacify, drive out or replace with folk from abroad. They tried to create a country in their own image, rather than serve it. Shame on them.
Om, London,
The 'disaster' they are all concerned about is that not all of them have yet had their kitchens fixed, or claimed for their light bulbs, or bought a new bedside table, or paid the cleaner, or had enough free trips on 'fact-finding' tours abroad (you know, Bermuda, Venice, Prague,...). Tragic.
john problem, winchester, uk
Ian, London.
We are 'stuffed' whoever is in charge. It's the world failure in credit that's behind it all. Running an economy on consumer overspending and personal debt has hit the buffers.
Where do we get money for nothing now? Housing spec has collapsed. Empire shut down. Have a war I suppose
Boris, Belgravia, London
All very well, Matthew, however, there is no mention here of the 60 million who have to suffer while these games go on in parliament. We the people, don't want two more years of ineptitude and doltheadedness. Why should we? We want sensible leadership now
Alice, Hove, E sussex
I suspect that Tony Blair knew about Brown's personality foibles all along, and that is one of the reasons he tried to stay in power for as long as possible - he knew that if he gave the reins of leadership to Brown, he would be sacrificing his party. He just was not able to tell us.
Alice, Hove, E sussex
A woman might just do it, and get the feminist, pro-single mothers vote. However I don't think there is quite a majority for that in the country.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
Keep him, he is the Conservatives best election ally.
Malcolm Turner, Alsager, England
I couldn't imagine Brown spending 6 weeks being the public face of labour during the general election campaign. This is what prospective labour MPs need to consider not whether the economy will turn around.
mike lincoln, wakefield,
They are stuffed if he stays and stuffed if he goes. The only decent thing for them to do is accept that they've lost our confidence and call an election so we can have the change we so desperately need. Maybe enough Labour MPs will keep their seats to keep Labour alive to fight another day.
Ian, London, UK
It's a platitude to complain about the short attention span of the Americans. Now, did you guys forget how you were mouthfoaming to replace Mr. Blair with Mr. Brown? Something wrong in the suggestion department, eh? Now, we might have,shortly, an unemployed Mr. Bush. Worth a try, isn't it.
Felix, Mountain View,
To listen to all these whingers they would have you believe they never earned a crust in the last eleven years.i would suggest the real reason they are hacked off is the value of their houses are falling.It was obvious ..even to a cretin ..that house price inflation was unsustainable.
P. Campbell, Southampton, England
Another thoroughly captivating piece, Mr Parris. But you nod at rather than state, tiptoe around rather than stomp on one key point about the identity of Labour's replacement leader: s/he must come from the English Labour Party; s/he must be English if s/he hopes to win. Disaffection is toxic.
Jono, South Wales,
This time I think your analysis, Mathew, usualy so good, is faulty in this instance. Brown will never give up the leadership; he would destroy the labour party, rather than see anyone else in his place.
The tories are learning fast, with Boris in power in London helping to show what they can do.
Mike Ganoes, London, U.K.
Spot on! Brown could never be a leader, now he's accelerating down the slippery slope, without a safety net, without hope for him or for Labour. But the team he has is also woeful, and constant "listening" and "messages" make them all sound like a sideshow medium with the accompanying credibility.
Padraig, Perth, Australia
Given the volatility of the polls lately, it would be no surprise to see the current Tory lead disappear well before the next election. The assumption that Labour has already had it seem ridiculously premature.
David Space, London, UK
If they don't its the end of the Labour Party.He may well be their last PM.
stephen hulton, eure, france
3 ideas for Labour
*Call election Oct 09 as economy starts upswing & claim credit
*Electoral boundaries inherently favour labour. Tories need large polling advantage just to attain a small majority
*Change leader 6 mths before election & ride popularity bounce as Brown should have done in Oct 07
paul reed, Cincinnati, USA
Would David Cameron be able to deal any more effectively with the largely exogenous economic problems of credit, and rising oil and food prices? Blair missed all this and Brown has had the misfortune to run smack into it.
Michael Sayers, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Wait till there's a BNP candidate standing. Then you'll see who the working class support.
Andrew Milner, Karuizawa, Japan
We are not stupid the current labour leader helped win the 2005 general election, and the previous t. The PM lost his eye and lost a child. He can fight back form tougher more traumatic times than this. An effote tory will not change what we think of him.
Bob Moore , Crewe, UK
Who do the shredded remnants of the working classes vote for?? The Tories, don't make me laugh. Working class = forgotten class. Many comments here are from the US, France, Aus etc, why??? Quality of life, down the pan! I will also emigrate given a chance. Its time to leave the sinking ship.
Graham, St. Albans, uk
And another thing. The choice of leader and the changing of leaders is a management issue. If Labour cannot implement a change of Leader in the face of such a result, then that confirms everything people have said for the last ten years about Labour's inability to manage - even themselves.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
The point about the Tories wanting Brown to stay as target practise is stunningly obvious.
However the idea that they cannot get it together even now to fight an effective Labour leadership and win decisively is not so clear. Note that Cameron is much more intelligent than the Labour cabinet.
Marek, London,
It is comforting to realise that the Labour Govt is in such a bone-headed, reality-denying stew that they will see Mr Parris' excellent advice as a trap, and reject it.
Well done again, Mr Parris!
A J Scott, Draguignan, France