Matthew Parris
Your last chance to get tickets to Top Gear Live
To a much greater extent than is generally acknowledged we use events to justify conclusions that we were already minded to reach. When David Cameron's bicycle was stolen in Notting Hill this week, the media represented him sympathetically as an ordinary guy doing the shopping, and sharing - albeit involuntarily - the grief that crime causes his fellow citizens.
If Gordon Brown's bike had been nicked in identical circumstances we would have dubbed him a prat for chaining it to a stub from which it could be easily lifted, and described the incident as yet another stumble for a hapless politician who seems incapable even of taking his bike down to the shops. Apparently objective facts can be arranged to point in quite various directions.
And so, in the Glasgow East by-election, a couple of hundred votes one way rather than the other tipped the balance towards a result that we are ready to pronounce “devastating”. Yet those few hundred votes - that narrow defeat - weren't what is important. A narrow Labour victory would have pointed equally to a horrible outcome for Gordon Brown's administration in any nationwide election, confirming what the polls have been showing for months - that the Government is unpopular and heading for defeat at the next election.
For Labour the by-election has simply clothed in flesh a problem that was hanging in the air. The loss of Glasgow East is a cipher for deeper anxieties - and, just possibly, an excuse for the party to grab its fate by the collar and ask the question that it shrank from asking a year ago: does it really trust Gordon Brown to lead Labour into the next election?
Will Labour face or duck that question? Among MPs and sympathisers whom I talk to there seem to be three opinions: 1. Carry on regardless; 2. Postpone the decision until after the party conference in the autumn; or 3. Start the ball rolling to replace the leader now.
The real choice is between 1 and 3. To postpone the decision until autumn is a cop-out, a cloak for doing nothing. Next autumn equals never.
If in its heart the party wants to carry on regardless, that's fine. There are occasions in history when hammering on and hoping for the best has paid dividends. Paralysis is a respectable option.
But Labour MPs, trade unionists and grassroots members should not delude themselves that waiting until the autumn is some kind of a third way between action and inaction. Unless Labour goes into the autumn conference minded to use it to remove the leader, he will survive it. And after the Christmas and new year holiday of 2008-09, the case for ejecting him before a disastrous general election does that job for the party begins to fade.
I can see it already. Mr Brown has an awkward conference with the trade unions in Warwick this weekend, but no serious move is made against him. Charles Clarke and a handful of ultra-Blairites mutter on into the end of July - but they are not the stuff of which a leadership challenge is made.
As for those Young Turks and old reliables who might challenge Mr Brown, they prick up their ears and are seen in restaurants, but nobody wants to wield the knife.
Then it's the summer holidays. As these draw to a close and journalists and their ministerial dining-companions come back from the olive groves and beaches, there begins a rising murmur that Labour's September conference in Manchester is “make or break” for Mr Brown.
Can't you just hear the clichés roll? His leadership is “on trial”. His job is “on the line”. He has to make “the speech of his life” this year. “The knives will be out” for him if he stumbles.
Then comes the conference. Each supposed leadership contender's speech is fingered excitedly to see if a potential bid is in prospect; listened to intently and pronounced afterwards as containing (perhaps) some hint of ambition, but in no sense a declaration. Finally Mr Brown speaks. He isn't particularly good (he never will be) but he doesn't fall flat on his face either. He has had all summer to write this speech.
And then what? Did this “make” or “break” him? Hardly. His critics continue to grumble, his palace guard pronounce him victorious, and the great mass of his MPs and followers sighs a little disappointedly, but realises that there's nothing here to get their teeth into.
A bottle of champagne, then, for the first reader to spot - before me - the commentator or Labour politician this October declaring that the party has the winter holidays, now, to think about the leadership, and that (say) the European elections next year will be the “crunch point” for Mr Brown.
Two bottles of champagne if it's the same politician or commentator who wrote that Glasgow East was to be the crunch point.
People reluctant to get a grip on difficult decisions and who wait for fate to offer them handles often wait for ever, and often secretly want to. The choice facing Labour this summer (the party will moan) is invidious.
But actually it isn't. They're lucky. Most administrations, as they approach the end of their natural shelf-life, become disliked as administrations - their leadership disliked, but no more or less than all the rest of the team.
To become more popular there is no simple change in personnel that they can make - nothing big they can fix.
Labour is more fortunate this July. There is something it can fix. Mr Brown. The party knows - and it infuriates them - that Mr Cameron is more vulnerable than he seems. Few in Labour think that winning the next election is likely, but giving Mr Cameron a good fight is perfectly imaginable.
Polls tell them that much of the electorate's anxiety about this Government is focused on a single personality - its leader.
Unfair as this may be, it gives the party the opportunity to remove at a stroke what most obviously irks the voters. Let's be candid about this: it would be to make Mr Brown a scapegoat, and that's unfair. But scapegoat is a role, I fear, that he would play with distinction. The honeymoon that followed his departure might not last long, but it should be sufficient to pull the party back to an honorable defeat at the general election, which a new leader would be admired for calling promptly.
For Labour, victory next time is hardly likely, but the difference between honorable defeat and total wipeout lies not just in the scores of Labour seats involved, but in the morale and energy of the incoming Principal Opposition whose task it would be face up to a new Tory government in its critical and maybe hesitant first months. That would be the very worst time for a Labour civil war about direction and leadership.
Whoever may challenge Mr Brown for the crown therefore has a tricky task in the art of communication. He or she must essentially be saying this to potential supporters: “I cannot promise to win the next election for you, but I can mitigate the rout.”
Oddly enough, for me as a former MP that does resonate. It might resonate better than you think among the Parliamentary Labour Party.

Matthew Parris joined The Times as parliamentary sketchwriter in 1988, a role he held until 2001. He had formerly worked for the Foreign Office and been a Conservative MP from 1979-86. He has published many books on travel and politics and an autobiography, Chance Witness, for which he won the 2004 Orwell Prize. His diary appears in The Times on Thursdays, and his Opinion column on Saturdays
Explore your passion for food with the delights of Thai, Indian & Chinese cooking
In our new series, Tony Hawks takes a dry, wry look at modern life - junk mail, interminable meetings and snooty sales assistants
Read the training tips and advice that helped our London Triathletes
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
The latest travel news plus the best hotels and gadgets for business travellers
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
2007
£30,000
2006
£14,337
2008
£39,937
Great car insurance deals online
c.£75,000
GlosFirstmeansbusiness
Gloucestershire
£32,795 - £41,545
Universitry of Southampton
Southampton
£
£32,795 - £41,545
Universitry of Southampton
Southampton
Competitive Package
Npower
West Midlands
Some of the finest Apts & Penthouses
Across London
Great Investment, River Views
Luxury properties within exclusive development in
Chislehurst Kent
A new experience in Luxury Living
Las Vegas SALE!
£POA
With Ramblers Worldwide Holidays!
£POA
List your property with two leading travel websites
£POA
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times. Globrix Property Search - search houses for sale and rooms and property to rent in the UK. Milkround Job Search - for graduate careers in the UK. Visit our classified services and find jobs, used cars, property or holidays. Use our dating service, read our births, marriages and deaths announcements, or place your advertisement.
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
You ought to have your Comment article of Saturday,19th May 2007 published again -it certainly stood the test of time!
David Collier, Gorran Haven, Cornwall England
"Many Tories might say ruefully that 1992 would have been a good election to lose"
John Major was widely expected to lose that election, and so maybe did some of his erstwhile supporters in Parliament.
John, Edinburgh, UK
Goodbye Gordon - and please - good riddance...
Joe, Maidenhead,
Since they love him so much Labor can have Obama and we can keep a real leader in McCain.
Juan Venadito, Atlanta, CA
Many Tories might say ruefully that 1992 would have been a good election to lose. Might not hindsight say the same about 2009/10?
nick, leeds, w yorks
I notice Cameron was shopping for 'salad'. Has 'organic' peaked?
John Ledbury, Kings Lynn, England
It used to be said that a liberal was a conservative who'd just been arrested. Today, a Tory is a Labour-voter who's been demonised, targetted, and told to shape-up or ship-out by an army of finger-pointing single-issue fascist zealots. That means just about all of us. Labour haven't got a prayer.
Ken Leyland, Liverpool, UK
Gordon Brown would regain popularity overnight if he publicly asked Tony Blair whether he had discussed the possibility of Euan joining up and fighting in the wars he, Blair, believed in so passionately, and if he would donate anything from his US lecture millions to the Army Benevolent Fund.
Rob bryant, Bromley, England
The Labour MP's currently in Westminster will be loathe to draw the dagger from the sheath as that will be curtains for them. Hence the paralysis will continue and the trough emptied and I will be surprised if any Brownites will bother to attend Westminster as we approach the end of this comic farce
Nick Dixon, Sutton Coldfield, England
I'm going to ask the bookies for a price on an October election
peter c, devizes, wessex
Hello Matthew
I was wondering whether it is Gordon who is so unpopular or the New Labour project. If he is bearing the brunt of eleven years of increasing frustration and anger with the spin driven divide between promise and reality then your elegant analysis goes down the proverbial pan.
Marek, London,
How alarming to see Brown beaming at the camera as if he is unaware of the mess he and his government have made of this country in the last eleven years. This is further compunded by his muttering the inane mantra of "getting on with the job". That is precisely the problem for the nation.
Greg Smith, Bath, England
Matthew's right, but I doubt whether Browns colleagues have the stomach to do the right thing.
My guess they will take the coward's way out: the paralysis option.
Something much more significant needs to occur to reach the Chamberlain moment.
Gilbert Lewis, London, UK
Brown will go, Labour will lose the next election, and the Tories will govern. It all seems inevitable.
Then will begin the process of disengagement from Europe so desired by the all powerful Eurosceptics.
Britain will be as irrelevant in the world as Blair is today. A disaster in the making
Nick Moore, St Ouen, France
Brown will walk the plank to its brink just as Callaghan and Major did when they were up against it. That's what our self-interested political parties do.
John Steggles, Bury St Edmunds, England
I disagree that a Clarke or Milburn is unlikely to mount a challenge. As they say in snooker it is a shot to nothing. The stumbling block is 70 MPs in the open against Brown. A Blairite heavy challenge with a sweep of this disastrous cabinet may offer the only opportunity for Labour in 2010.
Tony Gee, London,
So 'paralysis is a respectable option'? Maybe it is for this incompetent and corrupt government but what about the country? Two more years of NuLabour will complete the demolition job on Great Britain.
Graham, Gaillac, France
Yesterday I read of shopkeepers fined £300 and threatened with criminal convictions, for putting their rubbish out in the wrong coloured bag!!! This government has turned the country into a police state where we are spied on and bullied by hordes of little Hitlers. Labour get off our back and go.
Jerome Healy, London,
Brown is safe because those gutless labour MPs will do anything they can to keep their noses in the trough for as long as possible.
Ian, London, UK
No, Matthew, it's not just Brown who is disliked. They are all GHASTLY, particularly Balls, Milibands (both) , Harman and Flint. We all remember Blair (and Cherie!!!) and Prescott very clearly.
Betty Stringer, Bungay, England
Why have you adopted American spelling ("honorable")? Is this part of the Conservative Party's image remake? If Labour chose a half-sensible leader who was percieved as putting the country back on the right tracks of governance, they could still defeat Dodgy Dave.
Gervas Douglas, Erts, Andorra
The SNP man was pro-life and against the embryology bill and other nasty anti-family/marriage legislation this government has passed.If labour wants the votes of family men like me,he must sack Harman, Primarolo and reing in the influence of the Gay rights lobby.See the christian institute websight.
raymond joseph douglas, northampton, uk
Don t forget that the Cabinet is composed almost entirely of horribly patronising and frighteningly mediocre nobs.
Brown is not the only problem - the cabal has to go with him.
dhr, cardiff, uk
This government has spent the last decade telling organisations to improve services by being sensitive to public opinion. If this government does not resign with opionion polls in the low 20% range is this evidence of one rule for ministers and one rule for everybody else?
Yealand Kalfayan, Bristol,
People's disdain for Brown stems from the fact that he never faced election for party leader and then funked facing the electorate. He believed he had a divine right to leadership, but he didn't have the courage to face a challenge. How can anyone respect someone so gutless and indecisive?
Keith Daniels, Alicante, Spain
I think Matthew Paris has a point: political affiliations aside, this is about integrity; a new Labour Leader can call an election and get credit at least for giving the voting public a say in how they want their country governed. Labour will lose an election but not, entirely, its reputation.
R de Bulat, Plymouth, UK
This week a council fined a decorator for smoking in his van. Would this ludicrous act have happened 11 years ago? No, of course not. This government has presided over the utter decline of Britain to the point where we are genuinely worried about banks going bust.
For gods sake, give us an election
David, St Albans, UK
Labour do not assassinate their leaders - remember Neil
Kinnock, they carry on and are generally loyal, the Tories
could learn from this, needing to win they are too ready to
wield the knife. People have just had enough of Labour,
the English did'nt vote Labour anyway, they voted Blair.
Philip, Dorset, England
That's right, replace Brown with another smarmy, Zanu Labour icon, Milliband.
Then we can vote and get rid of him too.
S Patel, Melbourne, Australia
Matthew, the fact that Gordon Brown has been personally responsible for the economy for the last many years, and that it's condition now resembles a car crash before entering the coming recession seems to have been missed in your analysis.
He is going to be held responsible, as are Labour for their porcine greed and and incompetence.
David Martin, Bristol,
The best policy for Labour at this juncture would be to ditch Brown and let a caretaker leader who is willing to make the sacrifice lead the party into an election as soon as possible, limiting the scope and effectiveness of the Tories, their policies not fully formed, and leader inexperienced.
Ross, Toronto, Canada
The Lisbon treaty referendum fiasco shows that the P.L.P. is happy to be bloody minded when trying to prevent disasters inflicted upon it by Joe Public. Why they cannot stomach a similar approach when the threat to their livelihood lies within their ranks is telling. This Government is finished.
Alan, Swindon,
Brown took power under the mantra of "change" - nothing's happened! Blair should never have been replaced and we should have been given the choice between Blair and Cameron in 2009. If Cameron, then Blair would be replaced by Brown in opposition. The US electorate ousts Presidents, not parties!!!
Ben Fox, Aberdare, Wales/UK
The polls are so bad that they may be working in Brown's favour. If they replace him now or in the autumn they would have to call an election because of two unelected PMs. An election under present circumstances would be a rout. Thus they stick with Brown and wait til 2010 hoping for the best.
Paul Owen, Birmingham, UK
If all the next Leader can promise is to "mitigate the rout" then he or she should start to exaggerate the scale of the proposed rout as soon as possible.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
They won't though we know that - Labour MP's are gutless and only aware of their own jobs.
ian payne, walsall,