Matthew Parris
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This autumn the Labour Party has embarked upon a strategic blunder. The strategy is driven by Gordon Brown's personal instinct: an impulse, an idea, so devilishly clever that even Peter Mandelson must be impressed by the cunning. Reader, get a load of this...
Labour has decided to unmask the Conservative Party... as a conservative party; to expose the Tories as secret Tories; and in a daring strategy calculated to astonish the nation, to track the Centre Right straight to its ideological lair and tell the world its precise location. On the centre right! Crikey. The Tories had better not let that get out. You mean they think people should be encouraged to do more for themselves? That Government spends too much? You can almost hear the electorate's collective gasp. Horrors! Pass it on. The Tories don't like high taxes!
Let Bromley hear the truth, let Croydon be told: David Cameron thinks a lot of public expenditure is wasted! Let Solihull and Harrogate delude themselves no longer: Tories aren't wild about the EU! And let the scales fall from the eyes of Brighton, Pembroke and Chester: Conservatives think that in a crisis even needed state spending may have to be reined back. Take the message to Billericay, to Essex man and Worcester woman: Tories are sceptical about the public sector's efficiency. Broadcast to self-employed plumbers, minicab drivers and small businesses across the nation: Tories are worried about the operation of the Human Rights Act! Leave readers of the Daily Mail in no doubt: the Principal Opposition are Conservatives.
Quake, England! Flinch, Wales! The sage of Dunfermline has seen a vision: at the next election the party challenging him and his economic record will be Tory, share Tory instincts and promise Tory things.
In the political equivalent of a stage whisper, Downing Street's communications people are spreading what is, for them, a surprisingly focused message. It is that after two years building his image as the captain of a changed party, a nice party, David Cameron is now reverting to type: nasty leader of a nasty party. Tory criticism of public spending is seized on as evidence of the cuts they plan. The Tory promise on inheritance tax (that Labour matched it is suddenly forgotten) is denounced as proof that Tories favour the rich. Their thoughts on immigration (also aped by Labour) are proof of hidden racism.
“Don't be fooled by all this compassionate Conservatism'” is the message: “The Tories haven't changed.” There's one big problem for Labour in launching such a propaganda campaign, at this of all moments. It dovetails beautifully with David Cameron's own. He's working flat out to remind voters that, for all the PR gloss and “hello birds, hello trees, hello flowers” stuff of the fat years of 2006-07, the Conservative Party has not ditched its essential beliefs, especially in the bigger v smaller State debate, and in economics and welfare. Generosity was the watchword of Mr Cameron's first big push to project himself and his party, and it was so successful that it left some voters confused about what the party stood for.
Austerity, Mr Cameron now senses, must be part of the next campaign: a second stage that cannot but sound like a change of mood and even of message. So there's a clatter as the train switches tracks, and it does jar - you could hear it on the Today programme yesterday as Mr Cameron's Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, struggled to remind us of when precisely it was that the Opposition warned us that the fat years were over - but Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne are reconciled to that. They believe that in the economic mess we're in, the electorate will be reconciled to the change of music too. They want the change to be noticed.
And in wades Downing Street, right on cue, to tell Britain that a Conservative government would be recognisably Tory. Well, praise be!
Some voters were beginning to wonder. For the Conservative Party, Labour's demon-mask line of attack is a heaven-sent distraction from some very serious questions about the busy but still par-baked opposition manifesto that seems to be emerging. Does it add up?
How will the charities and the “third sector” shoulder a heavy share of social provision? What is all this nonsense about directly elected police chiefs? How credible are the promised savings from cutting waste? Why so timid on the NHS? Can inflation-proofed public sector pensions be afforded, and are they fair? Who's paying for the implicit promises in Liam Fox's defence drum-beating? Is this really the time to proceed with a Trident replacement programme: surely it can be postponed? How about an Austerity Olympics? And - be serious - nuclear energy has to be part of the carbon-reduced solution, doesn't it? Sooner or later these questions will have to be asked, but if Downing Street wants to distract us from serious criticism by prancing around pointing pantomime fingers at the Tory leader and shrieking “He's a Tory! He's behind you!” - then that's just fine by Mr Cameron.
In the present crisis, both presentationally and in substance, the Opposition leader has not one but two tightropes to negotiate, and Mr Cameron's speech yesterday moved him deftly but quite sharply forward on both.
He needs (as I've suggested above) to darken the backdrop from waving trees and scudding clouds, and to toughen up the Opposition's ideological profile. Yesterday's speech contained more uses of the term “Centre Right” than I've ever heard from Mr Cameron: indeed I do not remember his using it at all until recently. But he still needs to protect his energetically promoted aura of modern tolerance and personal generosity. He should succeed in keeping the balance, not least because it's true: Cameron really is a modern and un-bitter person; but he really is an instinctive Tory too.
The second line is even harder to walk. He must avoid being sucked into a knee-deep treacle of bipartisan “national” politics - yet at the same time avoid the name-calling and pie-chucking that the British public so detest. His speech yesterday gave sharp notice of his determination not to pull punches, without sounding too gleefully adversarial.
From the Brown camp, Yvette Cooper's response - to accuse Mr Cameron of “juvenile political games” - was itself juvenile. Mr Cameron needs no lessons in bipartisanship from Mr Brown or Labour, who gave John Major hell over Black Wednesday (though they had supported the policies leading to it) and (while professing pro-Europeanism) tried to wreck the Maastricht treaty, even attacking the Liberal Democrats for being bipartisan.
Today's Tories should rejoice in the differences between themselves and Labour. Their 1997 campaign depicting Tony Blair as a socialist demon in a mask of moderation hinged on a national dread of the far Left - and didn't work, anyway. Cameron Conservatism will never inspire that dread.
Credibility, not demonology, should be Labour's pitch.
Matthew Parris joined The Times as parliamentary sketchwriter in 1988, a role he held until 2001. He had formerly worked for the Foreign Office and been a Conservative MP from 1979-86. He has published many books on travel and politics and an autobiography, Chance Witness, for which he won the 2004 Orwell Prize. His diary appears in The Times on Thursdays, and his Opinion column on Saturdays
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A few years back, the sociologist Steve Biddulph wrote we needed a Nelson Mandela, and we ended up with Tony Blair.
Even more urgently today, we need someone of Mandelas stature, but neither Left nor Right can field a true Statesman.
MaxC, London,
The poor performance of the government withs its insincere cabinet should have given the next election to the Tories. But their manifesto must show 'what are the issues to be addressed and the result expected'. The shadow cabinet must be more convincing than the mediocre conference performance.
Mr R Norton, Shrewsbury, U.K.
Mr Parris becoming more overtly partisan as he gets older. He comes across as much less likeable than he did not so long ago. Maybe it's just a function of age; but in this case, it really is very noticeable. His utility to me as a political entertainer/interpreter has substantially gone.
John Carr, Harrogate,
Very well put Matthew. Cameron must inform the electorate very clearly that he is not Brown and that the Tories are not "Blue Labour".
Almost daily now we will see shifts to the right by Labour. Today they are rebadging their immigartion policy.
Victor, NWKent, Swanley, England
"In the eighties, the conservatives made sure they well and truly got rid of the miners, it was like they were on a mission.
All men are created equal??"
It was the cheap coal from abroad that got rid of the constantly striking miners. Thatcher just didnt want to keep subsidising them to strike
Anthony Lester, Brum,
If Cameron says that he will
cut tax
stop immigration
reduce benefits
stop telling people how to live their lives
get rid of quangos
give a vote on the EU
end spin
he will waltz into Downing Street with a massive majority. People are sick of GB and Brown and want them out. Now.
Anthony Lester, Brum,
Many of us would say that this government led by crash Gordon has been one great big strategic blunder!!
We will not forget Mr Boom and Bust and will vote for Cameron even if he has no great policies
Anyone but Gordon!
edwina, Harrogate,
People are angry with Labour & instinctively dislike Brown. They know he was in charge of the economy & mainly responsible for the mess. Jobs & houses will be lost & Labour will rightly be blamed. With a resurgent Tory party,
the SNP & BNP hitting Labour heartlands, Labour can't win a GenElection.
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
The Cons stand a good chance of getting in at the next election. Give it year or so, and the same folk who are here moaning about Labour will be back here moaning about the new regime. But its what we do best in the UK isn't it? Whine.
dee, Waltham Cross, UK
Come on now Matthew, if Labour's "Big Idea" for electoral success really were such a huge mistake, you'd be keeping quiet about it wouldn't you?
Ken Leyland, Liverpool, U.K.
This is Cameron's "who moved my cheese" moment !
Fiscal austerity was identified as the cause of the 1929 Depression.
Brown is showing skill in his handling of this global economic crisis.
We all remember Cameron was Special Advisor to Lamont on Black Wednesday when rates were 15%
Damien Vaugh , London, UK
The trouble with Cameron's Tories are they are trying to be all things to all men. So Cameron likes Bankers and Hedge Fund Managers and invites them to dinner. Then he denounces them. He is for deregulation, then in the current crisis he is against it. He was happy with Thatcherite policies, not now
Tom Jefferson, Odiham, England
I can't see it Matthew. No one within the Tory party, let alone Gordon Brown has any idea what the Tories stand for.
Now they seem to be anti big business, anti Laissez Faire + rudderless. Dave Cameron is doing a good enough job of damaging the Tories by dithering so Brown doesn't even need to try.
A Thomas, Lanchester,
"This autumn the Labour Party has embarked upon a strategic blunder"
So what's new? Gordon Brown embarked upon a strategic blunder in 1997 with the tripartite agreement and many others followed in the next ten years. And now we are paying the price for these blunders.
J Jenkins, York,
people of great britain should never forget what that evil man gordon brown has done to our country & its' people should not forget either how he has robbed the pension funds ( a robert maxwell) & has robbed us of the 10% tax rate which has backfired on him, & don't forget he has done nothing for us
m. blew, dartford kent, england
Isn't it easier to walk two tightropes than one?
James E. Petts, Burnham, England
Why has the BBC stopped their online debate re whether DC has broke the (bizarre) accord re economic reconstruction? GB's hope must be that this self-imposed accord holds until the election, until which no criticism is allowed of the saviour of the free world. Democracy demands a return to normailty
James, Glasgow, Dumbartonshire
Labour doesn't work. Blair got in because he wasn't a member of the Conservative party. People ignored Brown for 8-9 years because things were pretty good. People started getting grumpy when they noticed how much Brown costs, and how little Labour delivers. Now there is nowhere to hide.
D Murphy, Skipton,
The trouble has been that Labour followed relevant Tory policies, and was hamstrung by the Thatcher de-regulation of banking.
It is one thing to say that government cannot be trusted, sensibly, but it is another to foolishly suppose that free enterprise can be trusted while government cannot.
Duncan Clark, Edinburgh, UK
11 years old in the winter of discontent, running for the candles was fun, the TV going off was not.
Recently the papers reported that a cold snap could cause power cuts.
Problems with
1)Jobs/strikes
2)Rubbish
3) Power cuts
Deja vu, nightmare, or just another Labour government. Ignorance was bliss
Doug Berger, London, England
There's a lot of crowing in France about Britain getting closer to Europe and moving away of America in the wake of the financial crisis. I'm interested in hearing a British perspective on how the crisis will impact Labour and the Tories' message on Europe.
Anton, New York,
One question for Cameron: Usually at faintest whiff of nationalisation, you guys are spitting blood but with bankers, its all roses, why?
In the eighties, the conservatives made sure they well and truly got rid of the miners, it was like they were on a mission.
All men are created equal??
Graham, St. Albans, uk
Labour, and (Gordon Brown in particular) is A major architect (but not the only one) of the UK economic problems. Yvette Cooper was plain silly. Labour is finished, if it wanted to regain credibility there would have to be a "confession time!. That would mean Brown admitting he made mistakes.
David Raynes, Bath, Somerset
Gordon Brown's problem isn't Cameron. Brown's problem is that an increasing number of core Labour voters will be voting from the dole queue.
If the electorate consisted of luvvies, Labour would be a shoo-in, but it consists of people badly affected by the coming recession.
Labour isn't working.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA