Matthew Parris
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A helpful rule of thumb for assessing the fanfare that habitually precedes a Gordon Brown initiative, is that there will be less to it than meets the eye. Under scrutiny, these things tend to come apart in our hands, shot through with failures of nerve and riddled with second thoughts.
So there is a chance that Monday's Pre-Budget Statement will prove a mouse, and that George Osborne and David Cameron will skid from attacking a monstrous irresponsibility to grumbling that it won't make much difference.
But the heralding - with however much exaggeration - of a big, unfunded tax giveaway has had the effect of flushing out the Conservative front bench. We now know that Mr Cameron and his Shadow Chancellor don't believe that big new borrowing will lift Britain from recession faster. They fear that it may even dig us deeper in.
In switching to this attack, Mr Cameron gambled three times this week. First that a substantial new fiscal stimulus, in the form of tax cuts to be paid for later, really is about to be unveiled. Identifying the Conservative Party firmly with scepticism about the idea, he gambled secondly that the plan will visibly fail. But the third and biggest risk he takes is that “good housekeeping” Tory scepticism will resonate with the country. He did not, after all, have to pin his colours to the mast.
We will know soon whether his first gamble was right. If No11's statement does row back from No10's pre-puffing, Mr Cameron's dire warnings may look off-target; but he can ride that.
On his second gamble - that the plan will fail - I, though no economist, do raise an untutored eyebrow at my colleague Anatole Kaletsky's confidence that Mr Brown really has “become a leader of global stature” with a plan so luminously effective that he can now trace a clear forward path to recovery. There is a Brown swagger that the Opposition is entitled to question.
Is Anatole right to assert so unhesitatingly that “a government that spends and borrows in a recession can usually repay much of this borrowing without raising tax rates, because recovery automatically yields higher revenues and reduces spending on the unemployed”? Doesn't that presuppose that recovery actually happens: fast and big enough to yield these happy outcomes? Can no borrowing be too high in a recession - or why wouldn't chancellors just think of a number and double it? Surely there is a point when the cost of debt undoes the benefits? And isn't that all that Mr Osborne and Mr Cameron are saying?
And even if Anatole is right (and is he?) that it is simply our low interest rates that have caused sterling's fall, does it end debate to remark that by making exports more competitive “the pound's decline is not a problem but a solution”? Then rejoice, Zimbabweans; prepare for boom-time, Iceland. Surely Anatole's argument is too strong. In a steep devaluation there must be a critical gradient beyond which problems grow. Again, isn't that what Mr Osborne is saying?
A Tory can accept Anatole's core Keynesian argument - that when a frightened population locks up its wallets and stashes its savings under the mattress, the State may have to borrow and spend to break the paralysis - yet still insist that there must be limits to this, and that timing matters, or the thing may go off half-cock and then have to be paid for. Isn't this, too, what Mr Osborne is saying?
The Tory leadership thinks that Monday's unfunded package may undermine confidence in our solvency and raise the spectre of higher taxes later. The Government (and Anatole) think that Monday could give the push we need, and that, in due course, the economy should be bowling along so merrily that we can pay for it then. There is a third possibility: that the stimulus will fail, but not because it is unaffordable but because it is too timid. The Brown-Kaletsky logic admits no restraint.
The logic of Tory hostility to an “unfunded” stimulus is confusing too. A “funded” stimulus is undermined as a stimulus - by robbing Peter to pay Paul. Mr Cameron's talk of future cuts in projected extra spending plays nicely to Conservative instincts about state profligacy but sits oddly in a debate about how to get out of recession now.
I suspect that the Tories are not being frank about two key planks beneath their position. The first is that they don't love state spending anyway, recession or not. Secondly, I doubt that Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne really think that, beyond stretcher-bearing for the worst casualties, there is much that a British government can do to reshape a global economic cycle. During Commons exchanges on the G20 meeting this week, John Maples, a senior Conservative, voiced this candidly: “The recession has to take its course... [or] there will not be a solid base for recovery. [Mr Brown] risks endangering that... [and] will leave a legacy of debt and taxes into the future.” To put it crudely, Monday's annoucement may amount to pissing expensively into the wind.
If that's what Mr Osborne thinks, he should say so. Which brings us to the third gamble. Could the new Tory position resonate with voters? Yes. It anticipates a change of weather already sensed: a coming chill of resignation if not despair. People are hunkering down for a period of austerity that they begin to doubt politicians can unwind.
On Monday, expect excited squeaks at giveaways that some still hope will do the trick. The language of “jump start”, “pump prime”, “injection”, “stimulus” and “seed corn” (like Mr Brown's favourite word “invest”) - implants a subliminal suggestion of prudence and good value: not really spending at all; something you can't afford not to do; a little money to (dare we say?) leverage more. In politics nobody seeking a bung calls it subsidy; it is always a one-off, kickstart or tide over.
But if summer comes and still the recession bites, Mr Brown's sorcerer's reputation may dim. With the stimulus spent and still not stimulating; the seed corn eaten, not sprouting; the grind of the pistons as the engine refuses to spark, a Prime Minister hunched over the ignition, still bragging that he knows how to start this thing, could annoy mightily.
Remember, Mr Brown's claims to cosmic leadership rest on what he says his measures will achieve, not on what they have achieved. The boasts will finally grate, and a Conservative message that if he can't whistle up a recovery, at least he should stop running up bills, should feel timely.
That is what the Opposition gamble on. For the moment Labour is incredulous at what it sees as the Tories' strategic blunder. Less spending? They've actually been stupid enough to call for less? Mr Brown, high on sleeplessness, pumped up on global status and intoxicated by one of his intermittent rushes of furious, precarious invincibility, thinks destiny is moving his way.
It is a mirage.
Matthew Parris joined The Times as parliamentary sketchwriter in 1988, a role he held until 2001. He had formerly worked for the Foreign Office and been a Conservative MP from 1979-86. He has published many books on travel and politics and an autobiography, Chance Witness, for which he won the 2004 Orwell Prize. His diary appears in The Times on Thursdays, and his Opinion column on Saturdays
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brown is always keen to say what he's going to do, not so keen to take responsibility for what he's done. borrowing and spending beyond our means is what got us into this mess. we should have been saving. and the money spent was largely wasted. the tories should have kept quiet, they are hopeless.
jem, london, uk
The world's weather is deteriorating and yet Captain Brown is encouraging his passengers out on the promenade deck while steaming full ahead into the eye of the storm with the hatches open. The manual of wiser political navigation lies unopened beside his bunk.
Graham Vale, Linlithgow, UK
ian dickson are you joking? weve had a consumer boom for the last 10 years, businesses and industries shouldnt be designed to only prosper in the boom years, if they cant survive a recession they deserve to go bust. hopefully this recession will remind us we need more than shopping and tax/spend
will, grimsby, uk
I think Gordon Brown is simply mad, he never had a grip on reality and now he has lost what little he had. He is living in a dream world and leading his country towards a disaster.
Christopher Holland, Canberra, Australia
O wise Matthew Parris. He is so right, but Brown is actually thinking 'if I win this argument, I'm also going to win the next election and if I'm wrong, the Tories are going to have to clear up the mess'. So he is happy, for the sake of his own messianic delusions, to rubbish the future of Britain.
John Lamble, Prague, Czech Republic
If we could spend and borrow freely in a recession then we would not have had a sterling crisis in every Labour government in 1927, 1947, 1967 and 1976. This one is doing all the same things: over spending, over borrowing and featherbedding its voter base. Why should the outcome be different?
R Mason, London, UK
We should be voting for a change of system, not a change of government faces. Neither party will change our fate, but a system change wiil. The flaws in the financial system are there because of the system. The Westminister system of government needs a major workover. Party politics is a disaster.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
Anatole can surely not be ignorant of the decades and trillions wasted in Japan by repeated 'stimulus' packages, all of which were subverted by 'Ricardian equivalence' as Japan's population sought to protect themselves against the consequences of the damage to the public accounts. Same to come here.
Michael Taylor, Old Malton, United Kingdom
Yes it is a mirage, there is no escaping debt, government or otherwise. Injecting more money in the economy will not overcome the collective unconscious fear that we are at the end of a natural and unsustainable cycle. Riding it out is the only sensible position.
Henry Northcroft, London,
Is Mr Kaletsky still consulting the same crystal ball he used back in January when he informed us that the credit crunch was over and there would be no recession in the US this year et cetera? I should take it back and ask for a full refund if I were him.
Joss, Kent,
Arnold Attard - Well said, my friend. Taxes in this country are as high as our overpriced railways. By reducing them, people will have more money which they would spend, creating a consumer boom which our industries need at this moment in time. We're all in this together, politicians please note!
Ian Dickson, Brighton, UK
Tax cuts now funded by public spending cuts in 2010-2013
would work. What to cut? unfunded index linked pensions,
staff numbers in the public sector and the many quangos
would pay for it, no need to cut frontline health, education,
defence at all.
Roger, Weymouth, UK
All those shouting about a "run on the pound" and the "disasterous devaluation" should remember that the pound is more or less at the level when the Tories were last in power.
Which the Tories like to boast was when they handed over a "golden economic legacy". Involving a low pound....
Nick, France,
Brown won't call an early election because:
1. He can't let go of power.
2. He wouldn't like the image of being a political opportunist. (Laughter)
3. He fondly hopes the recovery will be in place by spring 2010. (Tears)
4. He's not at all sure it's winnable.
Cameron should relax and wait it out.
Paul Freeman, London, England
Anyone with common sense should see that Brown and Darling are bent on crippling the country which they have already succeeded in making a welfare state.
Perhaps Vince Cable should offer his services to whomever takes over the reins of the next Govt.
I doubt anyone can resolve this mess!
Chips Westwood, Sarlat La Caneda, France
Recession is needed, long term steady growth leads to arrogance, greed and complacency. There needs to be and will be a clear out once in a while. Also, the drop in oil prices will greatly harm the plans of Iranians, Russians and SNP! So its not all bad. Brown is trying to save his neck
Adrian, London,
Anatole Kaletsky hasn't been right yet, so why should he be right now? His interview on the Today programme this morning was hilarious.
Peter Fullerton, Winchester, UK
I agree with the thoughts expressed by others here but the time for chat has gone.
Now we should be making sure we and our households are in a better position to weather the storm. Make sure our communities are in a better position to do so and then get our heads down for the long haul
Barbara , Bristol, UK
Kaletsky has long been a Brown acolyte and can see nothing wrong with 11 years of tax and spend with nothing saved. I have learned with experience to read Kaletsky's pronouncements and wait for the opposite to occur, which it usually does.
Bruce Burniston, Swansea, UK
Before long Brown will blame us for not spending what little we have.
Of course we will keep his tax-break in the Bank.
Never his fault of course !
Denise, Leicester, UK
Brown won't wait until the Summer. He already knows the seed corn is dud, so he'll stage a General Election as soon as possible after the New Year sales.
Drew, London,
I hate to say it but this will do no better than sweeten a very bitter pill. This recession is going to bite & bite hard, this policy is akin to building a levee out of sand - it will slow the flood but then break with even worse consequences. This will not work, the family silver has been spent.
S, LONDON, UK
Could some of this have avoided if only people had remembered history at the 2005 election?What do 1931 McDonald/Snowden,
1949 Atlee/Cripps , 1967 Wilson/Callaghan , 1976 Wilson/Healey and 2008 Brown/Darling have in common? Yes , a Labour Government ...always a devaluation/financial crisis.
Alasdair, Bushey Heath, Herts
DC is not the answer to GB, it is clear from his statement. GB said the Tories are as blue as ever and now we have the proof!!! Lets have Vince Cable as PM that would give them both something to sqabble about. Shame on the Tories!!!!
James, Brighton, England
People are running scared. Any money Brown gives them back to 'stimulate the economy' is likely to go straight into cutting back debt; paying off the mortgage arrears or into a bank account for a 'rainy day.' We all know he will want the money back with interest, so why spend it. I for one, won't be
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
You can only stand for so long, Mr Parris, in the way of progress. Soon you, too, can wear the shirt with pride -- "Young, gifted and fiscally stimulated".
David Moss, London, UK
well said. it wont work because the reccession is stil intensifying, so even if it does provoke some spending by the poor it wont be enough to counter the ever worsening climate. not to mention that anybody who gets given this handout will probably save it, to pay for the inevitable tax rises coming
will, grimsby, uk
Absolutely right. Brown's entire running of the economy has been a mirage.
Jean Andrews, Staplehurst, UK
Recessions are an opportunity for lowering prices and by so doing improving productivity and demand.
I sugest you lower the cost of utilities by 35%, petrol by 35%, and council tax by 35% .
You'll find that many of the problems would disappear over night.
Arnold Attard, Bergamo, Italy