Matthew Parris
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It's not uncommon for political commentary to start with a sagacious chuckle about how history never, ho, ho, ho, repeats itself. Hang the sagacity because history may be about to. On the letters page of The Times Business News for February 2, 1980, appeared a short contribution from a young Tory MP: the first he'd ever published in a national newspaper. It was headlined “A common industrial policy - the answer for BL”...
“Sir, Is it only to me that the solution to British Leyland's problems has occurred?
The Government should lay down a minimum selling price for Leyland motor cars, pitched to ensure a profitable return on the capital invested in the industry. Should the company prove unable to dispose of all their motor cars at this price, the European Commission should intervene to purchase the unsold stock.
These unsold vehicles would be stored on Canvey Island...
I hope nobody thinks this is a ludicrous way of dealing with the marketing of a commodity.
I am, Sir,” [etc]
A useful lesson from that early venture into journalism was the dangers of sarcasm. My satire on the Common Agricultural Policy and Europe's resultant “butter mountain” was taken seriously by bemused constituents. Some agreed, saying they hoped to see the Government try it.
Well, if they're still alive they may live to. Not in quite the manner proposed, but according to the same principle: that distressed British car producers should be given government help to maintain production and prices, even if they cannot sell cars at these prices.
For that is what the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders is asking Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, to do; and despite his guarded response, there's a serious danger he will. “Every time a business fails it is our duty to act,” said Gordon Brown on Wednesday, preposterously.
And the Conservative Party looks like egging him on, calling for special credit guarantees (“not bailouts”) for car-makers. Be in no doubt: credit underwritten by a guarantor is a bailout. Full stop.
Be on your guard too against that hoary old seductress, the whisper that a “lifeline” to the industry will not be a subsidy - oh no - but an “investment” because it can be used for “restructuring”, making the industry “leaner and fitter” when economic recovery comes. The British motor industry is already lean, fit and competitive. The problem lies not with producer or product, but demand: too few people can afford new cars these days.
Before the industry, the Government and the Opposition try to throw up a smokescreen of special pleading, be very clear what is essentially being proposed: that the motor industry be offered public funds to maintain production. This is the only possible logic of the industry lobbyists' case, which is that motor manufacturing is more like banking than it is like (say) Woolworths, because it stands in a chain of metal-bashers, components-makers, dealerships, etc, who will all go under if the car-producer sinks.
Subsidy to car giants simply to mothball production until the good times return, kicks the plank from under this “like banks, we lubricate the economy” case. If lubrication is to work and the oil is to keep trickling down, car production must be maintained.
And if you've heard that term “trickle-down” (with its associated “knock-on”, “one-off” and “lifeline”) once this week, you'll have heard it a thousand times by next summer. “Lifeline” is a lobbyist's word for a bung. A lifeline is always a “one-off” until it isn't. As for knock-ons and trickle-downs, soon you'll be hearing about these from every other troubled business, large or small; because short of selling knickers from a barrow in Petticoat Lane, there's hardly any form of economic activity that does not affect the livelihoods of greater numbers than those on its immediate payroll.
Even selling pants pays the wages of the minicab driver who takes the salesperson home. The raft of interdependencies at whose centre a big car factory sits is easier to locate and to depict simply and dramatically than the equivalent raft in which (say) 400 small manufacturers of coffee mugs sit; but why would (say) £3bn spread through lines of credit to every business in Britain employing less than six people, prove less of a tonic than giving a big wodge of money to the Tata brothers or General Motors? There's one difference: big industrialists have fat lobbyists, hectoring unions, and a simple mental picture of their place in the economy, to make their case.
I don't make light of the problem. Motor manufacturing, which has just experienced a 33 per cent slump in sales, is still important in the British economy, worth more than £20bn in a good year. Some of it (but - ignore the scaremongering - not all) may never recover from a long slump. Along with Ford's residual British operations, Vauxhall (not Jaguar/Land-Rover) is probably in the most imminent danger, but Lord Mandelson will try to avoid mentioning Vauxhall (a General Motors subsidiary) until it becomes clear that no US administration is going to ask American taxpayers to bail out the economy of Ellesmere Port. Of course they won't.
Nissan's, Honda's and Toyota's British problems may be less urgent but they, along with other car-makers across the Channel, will want to know why their competitors are to be subsidised. There is a real danger of an EU bidding war - casting the rules aside - for the protection of domestic vehicle manufacturers.
It's a bidding war from which it will take nerves of steel for Government and Opposition to stand aside. But we've been through these arguments before, and not so very long ago, and I thought we'd concluded that bailouts were not the answer. Indeed the case for intelligently directed state investment in key but sclerotic and under-capitalised industry was actually stronger in the 1970s. Unfortunately the beneficiaries just soaked up the money last time. They will this time, too.
This time the problem is lack of demand. But if you want to increase demand give the money to the customer, not the supplier. That is, if you have the money. We haven't.
Gordon Brown, replying to the Archbishop of Canterbury's warning against feeding our credit-addiction, had the effrontery to compare himself with the Good Samaritan, who did not (he said) “walk by”. The Prime Minister failed to mention that the Good Samaritan used his own money to help the man fallen among thieves. Mr Brown wants ours. The better comparison is with the thieves.
That Times letter all those years ago was not wrong. We must, through all bedazzlement, hold fast to our understanding of first principles. When a market for beef is oversupplied and cash-strapped farmers beg for help, government can do one of three things: pay them to keep producing; pay them to stop producing; or leave the market to find its own level. Cars are no different from cows. And there's still plenty of space on Canvey Island.
Matthew Parris joined The Times as parliamentary sketchwriter in 1988, a role he held until 2001. He had formerly worked for the Foreign Office and been a Conservative MP from 1979-86. He has published many books on travel and politics and an autobiography, Chance Witness, for which he won the 2004 Orwell Prize. His diary appears in The Times on Thursdays, and his Opinion column on Saturdays
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Matthew Parris again a very good article in the same edition of the Times. Keep it up and keep articles of this nature going. Well done
philip Hales, Shilton , Burford, UK
Seems Mr Paris is stuck in the 70s and has simply failed to notice that most UK car plants are now idle and production is down by a third. Gov funds will not be used to stockpile. The question is simply whether this country wants a car industry or not. Many other countries have decided they do.
Simon Warr, London, UK
Let's not forget the other reasons as to why the industry has failed
-petrol prices
-effect on the environment
-overall running costs
-choice in places like London where public transport isn't perfect but an option
Easy to be macabre but what about the loss of jobs? I respect PM's call though
Peter, Clapham, London
Diversify, Diversify, Diversify. I'll wager that if the companies built an electric car that travelled distance at a quarter of the price of petrol, the public would rush. Thats the future of the motor industry.
The downside? Swivel eyed Treasury officials and Gordy's budget panic.
Michael Murphy, brightlingsea, england
The real bung that is going on is to the banks.
The country is being bankrupted in a futile attempt to prop up their mountains of debt, amounting to 400% of GDP, matched by assets which are not seen to be worth far less.
Losses are being passed to the taxpayer.
Cars are a sideshow.
David Martin, Bristol, UK
Polluting cars for the rich made by a foreign-owned firm ... it would be hard to come up with a less deserving candidate.
How would this be compatible with the government's hot air on carbon reduction?
John Page, Brookmans Park, UK
On Wednesday when Brown said Every time a business fails it is our duty to act, he was referring to companies with massive unionised workforces that can be relied upon to vote ZanuNuLab.
Chris, Newcastle,
of course they should give money to jaguar, if my business goes down and Gordi gives me his benefits handouts I'll probably be able to afford an XJ to replace my lowley X type next time.
May have to knock a few kids out for the payments but I've got 1..5 years before the replacement date!
Bill, st helens, UK
Gas guzzlers? NO ... My 2.2 Diesel Jaguar does 48 mpg. Which is nowhere near a gas guzzler.
Stephen Young, Horsham, UK / West Sussex
1.The truth is that the market for cars has collapsed.
2. Throwing tax payers money at car makers will not restore the market.
3. The market will recover when consumers have confidence that the economy is under control.
4. Government cannot control the market.
5 Tax concessions are necessary.
Tony Harrison, Horsted Keynes, England
Barking up the wrong tree.
Nobody can afford new cars due to exaggerated cost of housing.
You get more car for less money today than 20 years ago.
You get FAR less house for FAR more money than before - solve this and you solve most of the rest of the problem.
michael, Bromley, UK
Propping up uncompetitive companies to produce products no-one wants is throwing money down the sink. Demand can be increased by either reducing tax for the lower paid, as they will spend it or investing in infrastructure projects to aid recovery. The market will then decide who deserves to survive.
R G James, Brasschaat, Belgium
David from Ely may be too young to remember that the "job you started in the 80s" had been created in the 70s by greedy unions and feckless socialist politicians. I can't think of a single industry that failed in the 80s and didn't deserve to. The motor companies should get a fat ZERO of tax money.
Mike, Ipswich,
You are right, no bungs. Car manufactures have built for a market that is no longer there. But in the long term we need them. The answer is to mothball them until what they produce will sell. Meantime, they need to prepare to change their products.
Richard, Chesterfield,
Up until July, Jaguar Land Rover were forecasting a profit for 2008 of c. £500 million. This has now been downgrades to a loss for the full year. They are a highly effecient and ultra-modern businees that has absolutely no comparison to BL. The problem is the banking crisis.
Steve , Coleshill, U.K.
Good article, sensible argument. The trouble is that the incoming administration in the US is about to throw tens of billions of dollars at the ailing Big 3 in Detroit. Protectionist measures in the US will mean a competitive disadvantage for European carmakers, hence the SMMT's case.
krishna, London, UK
Spending our way out of debt
A B S O L U T E M A D N E S S
David, Huddersfield,
Jaguar Range Rover is not a British company, it is an Indian Company, they bought it 9 months ago, are you telling me that they only had a business plan for 9 months. The Indians bought 'a dog' If Ford could not make it work, how could the Indians? That however is their problem not ours!
Kevin Sullivan, Roehampton,
Mordwinoff,
Exactly, very good point. The cars in question are so poorly built, you'd be foolhardy to part with your own money in good times, leave alone bad.
Stevie G, Stourbridge,
"The problem lies not with producer or product, but demand: too few people can afford new cars these days. "
Exactly right, and given the number of special finance deals offered to people to get them to buy cars in good times, many were relying on (now vanished) credit to afford them even then.
James M, York, North Yorkshire
Mordwinoff,
Very good point that is often overlooked, JLR build a poor product, glitzy on the outside, shockingly engineered.
The educated stopped buying these products with there own money a long time ago, now even more people will stop for a multitude of reasons.
Stevie G, Stourbridge,
It is politically expedient for governments to be seen to be attempting to bail out car makers, in spite of the fact that the workers will be producing cars that few people will buy.
After all, these self same workers will be invited to cast their votes come the next election.
Peter Jones, Figeac, France
Another factor dissuading people from buying new cars is the clear threat from Gordon that he intends to massively hike VED: not only on large 4x4/gas guzzlers but also on standard family cars. He will backdate this tax rise to whichever yr suits him. Why buy a new car when you don't know future VED
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
The U.S. based carmakers and Jaguar/Land Rover are producing vehicle dinosaurs.These types are likely to be the first generation of hydrogen powered fuel cell cars and any government support should be for a quicker switch
Tony Gee, London,
I thought the Indians owned this company.Surely it is up to them to sort it out??
Living in France and driving 600 miles from home to Calais we now play a game counting the number of broken down Range Rovers & Land Rovers either stuck in Aires or on a trailer going North!!
Mordwinoff, Lisle, France
Where I live there is no "company car" culture nor prestiege in having the newest letter on the number plate. A car gets you to where you want to go and back again. Like in any business if you want to survive you lower cost or disappear. I suspect not many can expect government help in a recession
Michael Tindall, Christchurch, New Zealand
Why not stimluate demand by abolishing VAT on new cars for a period? Customer savings would be significant and they could then also negotiate 'deals' with the dealership.
Wouldn't this be much easier?
Paul, Bristol, UK
industries fail because they fail to respond to the market - not adapting, not being prepared, not innovating/investing in r&d...
Marco, Kraków, Poland
Interesting that Bush has purloined part of the moneys approved by Congress specifically to stabilise the financial sector to give the motor industry, part of the manufacturing sector, a bung.
No doubt he will excuse this illegal act by including himself in the list of end of termof pardons .
Stephen Green, Correns, France
In November, Jaguar sales year-on-year dropped 11% - yet BMW's were down 40%! Once the recession finishes there will again be a market for premium cars, and if the UK alone doesn't ensure its brands survive, those sales will simply go overseas - just like train-building post-Tory-privatisation.
Graeme, Dinan, France
Excellent, Until they "Reduce their "Cost Base" & "Restrict Distribution Cost's"! Nobody will "Buy"! Secondly basic "Borrowing cost is now 8%", Nobody wishes to "Take Up this "Fantastic Rate" with "Base Rate @ 2%!!!!" £300 Delivery cost for Buying your Product? Follow MFI & Woolworths!
Paul, Manchester, UK
The govt campaign against 'gas guzzlers' and 4x4's in one breath and subsidises them in another.
Insane.
But as ever this crisis, like 'global warming', will be used as an excuse to socially engineer society.
TrevorsDen, Wallingford, UK
This country bailed out BL for far too long and it went anyway because it was rotten to the core .
The infrastructure of a modern car plant is just as rotten , they have to go and be replaced .
Lets not do the " here's £20b " thing first .
Let's go straight to the new stuff with the £20b
Nick Dixon, Sutton Coldfield, England
One wonders, Dougie, whether it will ever again be possible to have a conversation - about anything - without somebody trying to interject global warming into the mix.
C. Heathcote, Tonbridge,
Jaguar does not simply supply British customers, rather it is an exporter of luxury cars around th world. Up until this global downturn, Land Rover managed to do it and make profits too.
If we are to play the EU no subsidy game, will that include the French? I somehow doubt it.
Jonathan Bywater, Huntsville, USA
I agree. No bungs. A more practical form of help would be for Government to bring forward orders for military vehicles (improved version of the Snatch Landrover) and ministerial cars (Jaguar). Also support of some kind for design/development/production of new-generation fuel-efficient cars.
Richard Shaw, Pinner, UK
Are you sure you don't just want to close the last of our manufacturing and finish the job you started in the 80s?
david, Ely,
Perhaps Mr Brown forgets that when he "helps" one deserving group there is an equal cost to someone else. Its true for grants, loans, subsidies, allowances, interest rates etc. There is also the cost of admin & market distortion to consider. But is it the help side that gets the headlines or votes?
N Reed, London, UK
Everyone who wants a car has got one, so why make more? The roads are jammed as it is. And then there's global warming...
The drop in sales is merely evidence of the good sense of the British people. Why would they want to subsidise the dinosaurs? Give each car worker help to retrain and move on.
Dougie, EDINBURGH, Scotland