Who will be vindicated by the war? The hawks or the doves? No prizes for guessing whom I think will deserve credit for ending President Saddam Hussein’s tyranny. But politics is a cruel game, in which virtue does not always go rewarded. As Winston Churchill found out in 1945.

In four weeks’ time the biggest test of domestic political opinion since the last general election will show what a country, still likely to be at war, thinks of its leaders. Local elections across England, as well as contests for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly, will reveal curious cross-currents of political opinion. And I suspect that the politician who is most likely to find the wind beneath his wings a month hence is that old bustard of the Right, Lord Tebbit of Chingford.

There are several reasons, not all of them necessarily congenial to Times readers, which may give Stormin’ Norman reason to smile this May. The first cause for celebration in Chingford is likely to be the scale of Labour’s losses. Tony Blair can expect to lose a host of seats across the country as activists, unhappy with his war stance, refuse to campaign. Our Populus poll today suggests that there is considerable support for the Prime Minister among the working-classes. But they are the voters least likely to turn out in local elections, especially when the machine isn’t there to goad them. That machine, oiled by trade union money and driven by the middle-class members of the public sector salariat, isn’t purring with pleasure at the moment. All the polls suggest that the Guardianistas who man Labour committee rooms aren’t inclined to lift a finger for Tony in May. It is a phenomenon which can only cheer our Norm. Especially when one considers the consequences for the Tories.

A low Labour turnout, and a malfunctioning Blair machine, are likely to deliver a slew of victories to the Conservatives. The Tories are, at the very least, easily bound to exceed their pathetically low estimate of 30 gains. The Conservative capture of hundreds of council seats would not only secure Iain Duncan Smith’s future for the time being. It would also strengthen the hand of those Tories who argue that IDS has benefited from ditching troublesome modernisers and campaigning more aggressively on tax, asylum and crime.

Some will issue warnings that we have been here before, recalling the Tory victories on a very low turnout in the 1999 euro elections, which were followed in due course by comprehensive defeat in the 2001 general election. But while there will be Conservatives who argue that false dawns do not merit champagne breakfasts, others will rejoice at the fillip given to IDS’s new, harder, line. Are there corks already popping in Chingford?

There is one area, however, where the Tories are destined to do badly. In Scotland, the Conservatives are now the fourth party, indeed they are running fifth in certain constituencies behind the Trotskyite Scottish Socialists, and they are almost certain to lose seats. Tory defeats might even be accompanied by nationalist gains, as the SNP benefits from its anti-war stance. There could be an SNP-Lib Dem administration in Scotland after May, with a referendum on independence following. That in turn would only encourage those Tories who argue that their party should cut Scotland adrift. For many Conservatives the idea that they were becoming more of a Little Englander party would be unsettling. But might it prompt a pint of London Pride to be raised in Chingford?

The Tories, of course, are not the only party likely to pick up council seats in May. The Lib Dems should also do particularly well. Their poll position has been consistently above 20 per cent for eight months. It is more than 5 per cent higher than at the equivalent stage of the last Parliament when these council seats were previously up for grabs.

Not only are the Lib Dems more popular, their vote is much more solid. In the past Charles Kennedy’s party was primarily a home for the don’t-knows. Now it has become a vehicle for the not-in- our-names. As our Populus poll today shows, Lib Dem voters are strongly in line with their leader’s anti-war stance. Which is just what you would expect of a party which is attracting growing support from well-heeled professionals, who are much more sceptical about military action than the rest of the country. For both Tony Blair, and Iain Duncan Smith, the mass desertion of the Waitrose classes to the Lib Dems is a worrying long-term trend. But I can think of one Tory who won’t weep too much to hear that his party has become a little less white-collar and a bit more White Van Man.

There is another factor driving up Lib Dem support which might also interest Lord Tebbit. Labour Party activists report that their party’s stance on Iraq has led many Muslim voters to abandon Blair, with a significant tranche moving over to Kennedy. There is certainly evidence to suggest that the war has made Muslim Britons feel more Muslim and less aligned with other Britons. Talking to Labour councillors, there are reports that the voting habits of British Muslims are being governed more by issues such as Palestine, Kashmir and Iraq than by bread and butter matters such as health and education. Their testimony backs up the findings of the Government’s Cantle inquiry into communal relations in northern towns after last year’s riots.

When he formulated his famous cricket test, Norman Tebbit was vilified for suggesting that some ethnic minorities in Britain might experience divided loyalties. What must he think to read the media secretary of the Muslim Council of Britain, Inayat Bunglawala, using that position to denounce a British government at war for embarking on a “neocolonial adventure”. Might there be cause for another wry smile to crease Lord Tebbit’s features?

michael.gove@thetimes.co.uk

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