To stand or not to stand? That is the question for David Miliband. The answer
is almost certainly no, but he has yet to say unequivocally that he will not
challenge Gordon Brown for the leadership of the Labour party.
The doubts about Brown grow daily. The budget was a flop. With its mirage tax
cuts he was tricky just when he needed to be straightforward. The gale of
criticism over his decision 10 years ago to take more tax from pension funds
abated last week, but only because Des Browne, his key political ally, was
caught in a hurricane of contempt after allowing the Royal Navy hostages to
sell their stories. The attack on Brown’s style by Lord Turnbull, the former
cabinet secretary, continues to resonate at Westminster with embellishments
from at least some of those who have dealt with the chancellor at close
quarters.
The critical unknown for Miliband is the election result in Scotland. That
makes him hold off saying in precise terms that wild horses would not drag
him into the contest.
Even professional politicians can never know in advance how bad a result needs
to be to provoke political mayhem. For example, when John Major offered
himself for reelection as Tory leader in 1995, nobody could say for sure
exactly what figures would mean death for his premiership. His survival was
settled in the minutes after the result was known. His supporters “spun”
that he had done well enough and the world agreed.
The chancellor’s men must be planning a similar operation to explain how in
the Holyrood elections a rout of Labour by the Scottish National party
somehow implies a national hunger to be governed by Brown. Will the
chancellor’s opponents be bold enough to argue, as the dismal results flow
in, that Labour must look elsewhere for leadership?
The timing of the elections north of the border is delicious. Brown worries
Labour because he represents a Scottish seat. English resentment is rising
against Scottish representatives at Westminster who decide, for instance,
what fees English students must pay at university while their own
constituents are educated for nothing.
To counter that, Brown’s supporters contend that at least he commands the vast
Labour regiment of Scottish MPs who are vital for victory at Westminster.
But defeat in the Scottish elections will suggest that Brown is unpopular
with Scottish voters as well as English.
So it is just possible that in the cold light of dawn on Friday May 4 the
Labour party, steered by some skilful spinning, could hit the panic button
and decide that to elect Brown is to choose opposition. Unless that happens,
it is hard to see how Miliband can muster enough MPs’ votes even to be
nominated.
He just has to wait and see. That is not as comfortable as it sounds. He has
to deal with the intense media interest in him and not appear to enjoy it
too much. That is not easy when you are just 41. As I know from experience,
much though you tell yourself that flattery should not go to your head, it
does. The chancellor may not be the only one seething every time Miliband’s
grinning features adorn the evening news.
Miliband will remind himself that the focus has shifted to him not because of
his political virtues and charisma. The media are desperate for a
challenger. Brown is an old story, painfully familiar to us all.
Many people yearn for a contest and because David Blunkett, Charles Clarke,
Alan Milburn and John Reid have all fallen along the way, Miliband is the
only alternative left standing. Maybe he occupies that position only because
we know almost nothing about him and he has done so little of note in his
brief parliamentary career.
If Miliband were a candidate in a Tory leadership election he would be a
certain winner. Major, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and David Cameron
were chosen mainly because they were unknown. The rule does not apply within
the Labour party, but still Miliband’s relative obscurity remains his
strongest card. It is, by definition, a diminishing asset.
For the moment Miliband’s greatest danger is that ambiguity is unattractive.
When Major resigned and stood again for leader I did not want to oppose him,
but neither did I want to close the possibility of entering a second ballot
if it came to that.
Even if Miliband does not commit the error (as I did) of installing
precautionary telephone lines in a putative campaign headquarters, his
refusal to rule himself out must attract Brown’s ire. By contrast, Jack
Straw never sat on the fence. He is Brown’s campaign manager and is assured
of preferment if his horse wins.
To be “willing to wound and yet afraid to strike” is dishonourable and
undignified. Miliband must take care because his conduct during these next
weeks could do him lasting damage. At any moment the chancellor’s men might
switch from trying to woo him to blackening his name. It would not be hard
to do.
What are the risks of standing? He would place himself for all time on Brown’s
hate list, but maybe Miliband has already offended the chancellor enough to
join that throng.
The problem is not being hated bya powerful man, but being hated and being
weak. If the young pretender pushes forward and achieves only a humiliating
level of support he will be finished.
Margaret Thatcher always had a tetchy relationship with Jim Prior, the old
guard Tory MP. When he left the room after a meeting with her she would
often chortle behind his back “Nineteen votes!” — a sneering reference to
his derisory score in the 1975 leadership contest, which she had won with
146.
It is important for Miliband to distrust all advice. An electorate made up of
MPs and trade union leaders is canny to the point of being devious. The task
of assessing the voters’ real intentions is not to be entrusted to amateurs.
The campaign team needs all the warm-hearted qualities of the Stasi to get
near the truth. It is a real challenge to do that while denying the
existence of any campaign.
Those who want Miliband to run will happily assert on flimsy evidence that he
has adequate support. He would be foolish to believe them. When I stood for
the Tory leadership in 2001 my team assured me that the campaign would be
tantamount to a coronation. I came third.
A prospective candidate must grasp that those who support him are not
necessarily on his side. They are pursuing their own interests and, quite
simply, a Miliband candidacy suits them for the moment. If Clarke, Reid,
Milburn or Peter Mandelson backs him that does not mean that his welfare is
uppermost among their concerns. They want to give Brown a beating and
Miliband is merely the nearest stick to hand.
There are clearly more reasons for Miliband to hold back than to go forward.
If he wants to capitalise on a decision not to challenge Brown he had better
make that clear soon. If he waits for the Scottish results and then shies
away, Brown will conclude that he had hostile intent and only weakness made
him stand aside.
On the other hand, the premiership of the United Kingdom is almost within
Miliband’s grasp, as it was for me in 1995. Unlike Cameron, Miliband could
be prime minister without winning a general election, without even having to
wait. He could be in No 10 by the end of June.
If he does not grab it now, the opportunity may never recur. Brown will become
leader, might lose the general election and condemn Labour to a decade in
opposition. By which time Miliband will be a has-been, his best years spent
fruitlessly harassing the Cameron government, for ever marked by his failure
to seize the day, consigned to history as a vacillator. I can tell Miliband
that this does not feel good.
Go on, David, give it a try. You know you can trust my disinterested advice.
We have broadband - and now miliband... he could be fast and fashionable, if just given more time!
Williams, Manchester, UK
seriously. anyone would be better than Brown. Even if Brown became leader he would only last till the next election. At least Mr. Miliband has some credibility and will bring a fresh face and hopefully a change in direction for Labor. He may even dispense with the "spin" which Labor uses to hoodwink the people of the U.K.
ray bligh, Penguin, Tasmania,Australia
Miliband? Who cares? Get rid of the whole discredited, incompetent bunch of self serving New Labour hypocrites.
Jeremy Moore, London, England
If David Milliband is the last credible alternative left standing as a challenger to Gordon Brown in the forthcoming Labour leadership election, given his inexperience it does not say much for the current Government. Success in office needs an able team of ministers, not just a Prime Minister.
After ten years in office, Labour simply has too many MPs who are past being plausible ministerial material, if they ever were. They need to rebuild. From Labour's point of view the issue is how to do this, for their preference without losing power, or at any rate without a whole generation of opposition like the Conservatives now or Labour before 1997. How could somebody as new to high office as David Milliband successfully lead such reorganization whilst also learning to be Prime MInister?
The Conservatives have taken active steps, including use of occupational psychology, to find better MPs and thus potential leaders. It is in the national interest for Labour to do something similar.
Frederic Stansfield, Canterbury,
give the man some credit, please!
he is doing what every politician with common sense would do, he waits for brown to take over, the party going into meltdown, the tories winning the next election, for him to rise from the ashes. he's young and he does not want to be a nobody at the top, like that wall-to-wall grin we had for 10 years.
tilovsky, London, U.K.
Mr Portillo is electioneering on behalf of the Conservative Party.
Andy Rome, Selby, UK
Strike a light! More nonsense. Neither David Milliband or anyone else needs to stand because we have a perfectly competent Prime Minister in waiting in the form of Gordon Brown.
And when it comes to the general election, no matter what happens in the Scottish and Welsh votes, the country will choose Mr Brown and Labour over the inept and weak Tories.
Paul Williams, Bangor, Wales
Said it before - will say it again:
David Miliband is Bliar mark two - the new improved model - more devious and cunning.
Brown is a pensioner thief - financially incompetent to sell gold when low - just has been lucky that his decision to let the Bank of England take responsibility for setting interest rate has worked out - THUS FAR!
Clearly he didn't want to take the criticism if he got it wrong i.e. that he was stiffling growth etc.
Garry Anderson, Haverhill, UK
"give it a try", says Portillo. As if it was like tasting a piece of cake!
We know why Portillo managed to lose what was his for the taking: he lacked the killer instinct, the hunger for power. He seemed only to want the leadership if it was given to him on a plate, shying away from getting his hands dirty and fighting for it.
Well, I've got news for him. If Milliband wants even half a chance, he'll have to go all out, fight very dirty, and will still almost certainly lose.
The Scottish election results will be of minimal import in deciding who will replace Blair, although a disaster may just hurry the change over up a bit.
Milliband is a nobody, a wet behind the ears intellectual type. He will never get close to the leadership of the Labour Party and will probably soon be forgotten.
harlan Leyside, basildon,
Re your article in sunday Times Magazine, Lauren Mallins, how can I help....... Please advise. Sally Gatt
sally gatt, gharghur, Malta
O please! Don't talk it up. The man looks like a special needs case
Ryan Sherman, Birmingham, UK
Miliband needs to stand or Labour will lose the next election.
New pro-Miliband candidacy blog here:
www.thereisanalternative.wordpress.com
Glass House, England,
"Dishonourable" ? "Undignified" ? I enjoy you column very much. Mr Portillo, but I am afraid that if you think these notional ideas are relevant to a 21st century politician, you have not appreciated Blair's true legacy...
John Miller, Orpington,
With Scottish seperation in prospect, Gordon Brown can only begin to have any credibility to qualify to become Pirme Minister in Westminster after he has re-located to a new constituency that is south of the border.
Michael Blatchford, Bth, UK
Our political system decrees that MPs are the best talent spotters when deciding who is to become PM. Last time around they gave us Tony Blair, with no experience in a ministerial role, the results of which are plain to see in a never ending series of botched initiatives, rarely if ever seen through to a proper conclusion. Yet these dark horses have unlimited powers of patronage in choosing who is to be Cabinet minister, selected often more for their being onside rather than for competence in doing their job.
And now the cycle repeats itself, with a virtual unknown whose main asset is that he has not yet had time to acquire vote-losing baggage, now in the process of being foisted upon us. And to think: he might just, at a pinch be PM in 3 months time. Call this democracy ?
ColinB, France,
Given that Miliband is 41, he will think in terms of winning the leadership of the Labour party at 43 or 44, assuming Brown loses the next election, and then still be able to become PM before he's 50, assuming Labour win again in 2013/14. The 'young pretender' will like the idea of the long haul.
Dr. Mark Corner, Brussels, Belgium
Yes Michael but Brown would not hang about as Leader of the Opposition, certainly not for ten years. If Miliband stays his hand this time, he could be elected Leader following a Labour defeat at the election. If all went to plan he could be Prime Minister of a "fresh" Labour government in six or seven years.There are several maybes in this scenario but it must be more appealing to Miliband than taking over the current dispirited Party without an electoral mandate.
John Reed, Southampton, UK
Michael Portillo suggests Davi Milliband has a go for Leadership of the Labour Party.Here is a youngish fellow,totally inexperienced except within the confines of Labour Party Headquarters,supposedly very intelligent and an MP with limited experience of Government and Office.
He registers on the Richter Scale of Political Power at about 2 or 3 at the most .To be talked of as a potential Leader of Labour is "NUTS".
Of course Michael Poprtillo's advice is about as reliable as me thinking I can cuddle a '"Great White Shark".
ed corbett, Bridgend, w
How many times do we have to listen to english xenophobia. The UK has endured centuries of english hegemony. Was it the best. The only reason non-english politicians are succeeding is because of the race laws. Before the 'old-boys network' mostly excluded them. Good politicians are few and far between. Lets have jeffrey archer or j aitken or where do I stop? tebbit>? Brown is in the Ken Clark mode, and should be given the chance. Milliband, yes but not yet. Portillo should know better, this article is racist shit. Hes not even british.
Doug, london, UK
Go on David you know it makes sence. You will just be another losser at the next election
The end of this labour government, O what Joy!
D case, newquay, UK
Gordon Brown will be an electoral disaster as leader for Labour, the Party knows it and I believe even Gordon, with his gigantic arrogance, suspects it. We know he thinks more of his personal ambition than the greater good of the Labour Party. I think Milliband does too but he should have self belief and take on the dark devious and flawed Brown. I am a Conservative voter and we will have less chance of winning the next election with Milliband but I would still support Milliband rather than see Brown in number 10, even for a month.
Stephen Jones, Penarth, UK
I have been a life long supporter of the Labour Party (and over the past 10 years) Labour Government. However, I have to say the prospect of Dr Gordon brown moving into No 10 scares me.
I am old enough to remember Ralph Milliband. (Professor Milliband was a real Socialist) - alas, unlike his two sone and in particular David.
Ralph, if you are looking down speak to david and tell him he is bright enough to be P.M., but please not in my lifetime (I am 55...)
Back to Mr Oprtillo, I feel that you were a P.M. in waiting - if only history could be re-written!!!
Richard Parry, Plymouth, UK
It is you our country needs back MICHAEL !!!
Lorraine, powys, uk
I usually agree with Michael's articles but this one is a bit way out in the extreme. Miliband exudes all that is detestable about NEW LABOUR and at least with Gordon Brown there is some hope the country might leave some of that unwanted trashy baggage behind.
As a disenchanted former Labour member who left the Party because of Blairs various policies, I would have to leave the country if Miliband became leader. I'd rather see a Tory Government in power - and that is saying something !!
Of course if Gordons tenure in No 10 doesn't work out, then we may be leaving the country anyway.
IAN PAYNE
ian payne, Lichfield - STAFFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND
"When a right wing newspaper tells David Miliband to stand against Gordon Brown we know that the right wing are scared of Gordon Brown!"
You are presumably referring to this "right wing" newspaper, which advised its readers to vote Labour in each of the last three General Elections.
Ha ha
Peter Kirkland, London, England
Ha ha,
When a right wing newspaper tells David Miliband to stand against Gordon Brown we know that the right wing are scared of Gordon Brown! There is absolutely nothing that the conservatives want more than for the labour party to have an internal battle. This is all rather amusing because, as a socialist, I can say that this Labour government has been an unmitigated disaster and has let down the poor, the schools and the public services. All of the things that we expect a Labour government to protect. However, do I believe that Mr Cameron can put his house in order - absolutely not Do I believe that the Conservatives will remain true to their , further than,right wing roots - absolutely!
Marc, St. Barthelemy, France
Miliband could'nt lead a Tortoise down a hill. I used to think you were pretty smart Michael:now I'm not so sure.Is this revenge for not having the guts to go for it yourself when you had the chance?
Michael Rigby, Chorley Lancashire, England
Feeling nostalgic about your own alleged leadership bid?
kevin merchant, ware,
The fact that David Miliband is being touted as a candidate for Prime Minister is a clear reflection on the current dearth of talent in British political life.
John Terris, Perpignan, France
I have nothing against David Milliband. People who are trying to get him to cause 'mischief' for the Labour Party have a sinister ploy.
Mr Milliband would no doubt get his chance, perhaps when Mr Brown retires. He is far too inexperienced to be leader and PM. Look what happened when people like Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair with negligible experience led this country - absolute chaos.
Ranapratab Ramdonee, London,
I agree that what we need is a general election and not a coronation
robert, buckingham, england
Michael, should have won the Tory leadership contest, you were clearly the better politician! David should go for the leadership contest. We need someone fresh like David. Brown hasnt got the support of Brits. This way Milliband can carry the Blairite torch on!
Atul Joshi, Nottingham,
You seem to have missed what is probably David Miliband’s best move. He should support Brown now and then, if Brown should lose to David Cameron, he would be a better age to put himself forward for leadership and better able to decide whether that is what he wants.
Henry Percy, London, UK
Milliband is an utter joke - last week he was considering charging sea anglers for a licence to fish in the sea !
Brown is an even bigger joke and is a Scot with a Scottish seat - so go there - after all, there is no way that the Scots would have an Englishman with an English seat running their parliament. But it appears that the Scots don't even want Labour nowadays.
The solution is to call a general election and to let the public decide where we are going.
Roger, Rock, Cornwall, England
This is a really well thought out piece & I do agree with your advice Michael.
Living outside England as I do, without a vote, so as an observer , [ but keeping up with English politics] I cannot see anyone beating David Milliband for the leadership should he decide to stand.
He's fresh, he stands head & shoulders above any of the other candidates.
Stand he must, for the sake of the party, if it's Brown that waiks into No 10, the Labour party will be savaged by the electorate at the next election.
How can the membership of the party not see that ?
At least with Milliband , should he do a good or even reasonable job , leading up to an election, I am sure he could give Cameron a good run for his money when the time comes.
If Milliband does not step forward & become the next leader, I predict gross humiliation for the Labour party with years [ deservedly] on the back benches.
If you love your party David , if you love your country , hesitate no longer, go for it NOW !
Maggie Millington, Brittany, France
To Alex, Sheffield: Brown has had an easy ride from the media for years. When finally the media wake up to the facts it's not character assassination; more a measured and fair character assessment. As for helping the weak and the poor, Brown has relentlessly siphoned money out of the economy, depressing wages and destroying pensions. It's interesting that under his stewardship the big money men don't seem to have suffered as much as the ordinary workers. Many are dependent on the unequitable and chancy tax credit scheme, having been forced into poverty or kept there by this chancellor. This looks more like creating a helpless and subservient client class than lifting people out of poverty.
Michael Bruce, Selby, Yorkshire
I cannot understand the support for Miliband. What has he actually achieved? He lacks gravitas and is part of the New Labour project. Surely having the support of Mandelson and Milburn can be no good thing even if they are using him to get at Gordon Brown as Michael suggests. This man is like a young Blair but without the 'flair' and messianic belief in himself (probably not as dangerous then). I would imagine he would get on well with 'Dave' Cameron. Both are adept at spin and lack substance. Miliband admires Al Gore. Enough said. Whatever one thinks of Brown, one has to say he is au fait with the international financial scene where he is known and respected. Labour may lose the next election - my own belief is that if this were to be the case it's because many of us are fed up with the nanny state, political correctness and corruptness of the government rather than being concerned about financial matters which is usually why governments lose.
Ian Burgess, Bristol,
Michael Portillo is here playing the Mrs Danvers role ( from the 1940 Hitchock film "Rebecca". Mrs Danvers' memorable siren call was for the disoriented new young second wife to throw herself out of the window onto the rocks far below.)
Extraordinary how people opposed to Labour - within its ranks and outside - have picked on David Miliband as the ideal solid object to throw under Brown's wheels to de-rail him. Not so flimsy as to be run over unnoticed but expendable.
Bob T, London, UK
The unfairness of it all is staggering.
Gordon Brown's character is assassinated day after day by the media. The same media commissions an opinion poll to 'find out' how people feel about him and informs us of the 'startling findings'. Is an opinion poll really needed to find out how people feel about someone who has been the subject of a relentless hate campaign?
One journalist after another looks for the most tenuous of links to attribute any of the Labour party's troubles to Gordon Brown. Even with the issue involving the sailors Mr Portillo cannot help slipping in that the Defence Secretary is his ally.
G Brown, like many, may want power but at least he also has done a lot to help the weak and the poor.
I think it is high time the media judged him on his achievements and not his looks or accent and showed some even handedness. After all he is a human being with feelings like any of us.
Alex, Sheffield, England
David Milliband may seem an attractive option but only because Brown is so spectacularly unattractive. In fact very soon the leaders of all three of the major parties will be flawed and unappealing to large swathes of the electorate because of their cynical desire to do and say what appeals to the Westminster village and the media set.
Oh for a conviction politician, a man or woman from an ordinary background unsullied by the calculation and cynicism of the political world ready to take on their vested interests and restore democracy and accountability. A forlorn dream in our world of career politicians and focus group policy making.
What we need is a whole new party to shake them all up. The trouble is how will we set up such a party when the present establishment has the funding all sewn up for themselves.
Paul Owen, Birmingham, UK