REAL POLITICS starts at ten o’clock this evening. Anyone hoping that the prattling of politicians — and journalists — will now cease is going to be disappointed. The frenetic activity of the past month has merely been a prelude to intensive manoeuvring within the parties, starting the moment the polls have closed.

Even at this late stage, predicting the outcome has to be hedged with caveats. Polling is still an art as much as a science, subject of a margin of error of a couple of points either way. Internet and telephone pollsters have different approaches. The daily Times/ITV News four-day tracker poll, measuring the daily ebb and flow of the campaign, is inherently liable to fluctuate more. And it dramatises changes, as with the fall in Tory support in the past few days. But the tracker first spotted this shift. The Tories’ personal attacks on Tony Blair as a “liar” backfired, with the Liberal Democrats building up late momentum.

The final poll conducted by Populus for The Times today has sought to remove any short-term distortions by having a large sample and by taking account of postal voting, a big factor this time. If the Populus figures are broadly right, Labour is heading for a Commons majority of at least 130, which has only been exceeded four times in the past sixty years: in 1945, 1983, and by Mr Blair in 1997 and 2001.

These estimates assume uniform national switches in votes. But this time there could be bigger swings in marginal seats, Labour’s big fear, and in constituencies which the Lib Dems are targeting — although any Lib Dem gains from the Tories, as opposed to Labour, would have no effect on Mr Blair’s majority. Labour may do better in some of its working-class strongholds in the North and the big cities, and less well in more middle-class seats. This would reverse some of the bias in the electoral system which has helped Labour so much in the past two general elections. All these factors could reduce Labour’s likely majority, as could any last-minute abstentions today by people wanting to stop Mr Blair having another landslide.

Television viewing tonight will not be straightforward. The exit polls, to be announced at 10.01pm, are being carefully “modelled” — that means adjusted to you and me — to take account of these complications and postal voting. Moreover, the early results from Labour strongholds in the North East — such as Houghton & Washington East, and the two Sunderland seats — may give an exaggerated impression of Labour strengths. In a quaintly old-fashioned way, the unpredictability of some constituency results may add a touch of excitement to the early hours.

Overall, my hunch is that the Labour majority could be nearer 100: perhaps in the 80 to 100 range. However, this compares with my estimate of a 50 to 70 majority at the start of the campaign.

A Labour triumph? Mr Blair will be the first Labour leader to win three terms in a row. But it is a qualified triumph. If Populus, and most of the other polls this morning, are right, then Labour will have won with the lowest share of the vote for a government with an overall Commons majority — and on a turnout not much above, and possibly less than, the 59 per cent of 2001. The closest parallels are 1922 and October 1974, but in both cases the turnout was 73 per cent. So Mr Blair is likely to have won the support of well under a quarter of the total electorate. This would raise questions of legitimacy, as well as a probably fruitless debate about proportional representation.

Moreover, Mr Blair has been dogged throughout the campaign by Iraq. The issue has kept resurfacing, even though it is not nearly of so much concern to many voters, especially working-class ones, as some opinionated broadcasters believe. There is much talk about Mr Blair being a lame duck. That has been re- inforced by the effusive support given by Gordon Brown in their many joint appearances. And with Mr Blair virtually anointing Mr Brown in turn, the campaign has seemed like the first stage of the handover. Yet, while the two are highly effective together, it is not obvious that Mr Brown would have done better on his own.

However, on television tonight we will hear Brownites saying the victory is all his doing — despite, rather than because of, Mr Blair — and the sooner the Chancellor takes over the better. Much will depend on the size of the majority. More than 100, and Mr Blair still has room for manoeuvre, at least until any European constitution referendum next year. Less than 50, and Mr Blair will be jittery. Watch for what he says when he returns to Downing Street on Friday and the subsequent Cabinet reshuffle to see whether he asserts himself or whether we have a co-premiership.

The Tories look like having another dismal night. The forecast vote share could be worse than in 2001, and only slightly up on 1997, implying a net gain of just half a dozen seats from the 166 MPs of 2001. The Tories will have to be doing very well in the marginals to get anywhere near 200. This would be below Labour’s low point ot 209 in 1983, provoking another round of infighting between the modernisers and the Right over whether the party was radical enough on spending and tax cuts.

While more than four fifths of Tory supporters want Michael Howard to carry on as party leader, this would probably not be for long — and much would depend on whether David Davis survives a strong Lib Dem challenge in his Haltemprice & Howden constituency.

The Lib Dems look like gaining the highest share of the vote for a third party since 1983 and most MPs since 1923. But for all their current optimism, there is a fine line between success and near-misses in many seats: or going up from 52 MPs to just 60, or to more than 80. Some of the shrewder Lib Dems may be asking — privately, though not on television tonight — about why their party has not done even better, given the un- popularity of both Mr Blair and the Tories.

At the end of the night, Mr Blair should still have a smile on his face. But his mandate is likely to be even more qualified than in 2001.

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