The Conservatives have a North-South problem. The latest Populus poll for The Times, undertaken last weekend, shows how David Cameron’s appeal fades the further you move from London.

The fears of senior Tories that the Cameron message does not resonate in northern England, which has about a quarter of the national electorate, are borne out by the poll (for more details go to www.populuslimited.com).

Whereas 54 per cent of voters in the South East say that the Conservative Party “understands and speaks for people in my part of the country as much as any other part of Britain”, a mere 37 per cent take this view in northern England, and only 29 per cent in Scotland.

Similarly, 64 per cent of people in the North, and virtually the same number in Scotland, say that the Tories are “more the voice of people in the South of England than of the whole country” — a view taken by just 48 per cent of those in the South East.

One explanation is that, although Mr Cameron’s modernising image — his willingness to challenge taboos — works well in the South, it fails to strike a chord farther away from the capital. Notting Hill is a long way from Newcastle upon Tyne. For instance, 50 per cent of people in northern England believe that the Tories seem “to have a patronising attitude to people” in the North, a view shared by almost as many Scots (46 per cent), although by only 36 per cent of those in the South East.

This partly reflects a sense of class divisions. Two thirds (67 per cent) of those in northern England, and nearly three quarters (72 per cent) of Scots, see the party as “mainly the voice of people who are already quite well off, rather than ordinary working people”. This view is, however, taken by only just over half (56 per cent) of those in the South East.

The electoral implications were apparent in last May’s local elections. The Tories did very well in parts of London and the South East, particularly among professionals and managers, but they failed to make any headway in the big cities of the Midlands and North, despite achieving some gains in suburban areas in the North West.

Of course, many of Labour’s most vulnerable seats are not in northern England.

As an internal Labour analysis for last weekend’s National Policy Forum showed, the immediate electoral background is in three areas: along the M4 corridor in and around Bristol, Gloucester and Swindon with 11 seats that Labour needs to win to form a government; the M25 corridor around London, where Labour gained 22 seats in 1997 and still holds 15; and the M1 corridor, from Milton Keynes up to Warwick.

These include lots of “aspiratonal” voters: people with young families and big mortgages working in the private sector.

If the Tories win these seats they would deny Labour an overall majority, but the Conservatives would be well short of winning an outright Commons majority themselves.

That is why the North still matters, especially the cluster of marginals along the M6 in Lancashire. The need to do well in northern England is underlined by the Tories’ continued poor position in Scotland.

Mr Cameron does not have to do anything very different to bridge this North-South divide. He does not need to wear a flat cap, or make some other patronising gesture, when he rides his bike. The lack of enthusiasm of the North is only, in part, about a very southern, metropolitan style.

So Mr Cameron’s answer should essentially be to do more of what he is anyway planning to do nationally over the next few months: to move on from rebranding to substance, to add weight and grit.

Mr Cameron needs to define what his mantra of social responsibility would mean in practice.

The divide

46% of those questioned agreed that the Conservative Party "understands and speaks for people in my part of the country as much as any other part of Britain".

The figure includes

54% of those in the South East

53% in the Midlands

44% in Wales and the South East

37% in the North

29% in Scotland

Source: Populus for the Times, based on interviews February 2-4

Times Recommends

• How did she get the insurance?
• Protesting against Charles? Bonkers
• Will a degree help an anxious patient?