Peter Riddell Political Briefing
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The Blair coalition among Labour MPs is fracturing rapidly. That is why tonight’s Commons vote on Trident matters. The result itself is not in doubt. MPs will vote for the status quo: the continuation for another 40 or more years of the 40-year-old bipartisan policy of maintaining a nuclear deterrent. More significant is that a large number of Labour MPs will revert to their preBlair instincts.
For the Government, and the Commons, to have abandoned the deterrent would have been bold, indeed revolutionary. Three months ago Tony Blair posed the alternative of announcing that Britain was “giving up its nuclear deterrent: I just can’t see it”. That is also the view of the Conservatives, who will ensure that the Government has a majority.
In itself, the current decision does not involve any increase in Britain’s nuclear capability. The number of operational warheads will be cut from fewer than 200 to fewer than 160, after big reductions in the British nuclear arsenal since the end of the Cold War. The vote is essentially about developing three or four new submarines to replace the Vanguard class, which will start coming out of service in 2022.
At one level, the argument is about timing, with some Labour MPs and the Liberal Democrat leadership arguing that the decision does not have to be taken now. Ministers insist that it will take 17 years to develop a new system. The Defence Select Committee in its recent report questioned this claim. But arguing for a postponement, as Lord Kinnock has, is a diversion. Even if the programme does not have to be started precisely this spring, the go-ahead will have to be given soon. (One unstated reason is that Mr Blair and Gordon Brown want to resolve the matter before their handover).

A more serious objection is that the end of the Cold War means that Britain no longer faces a threat requiring a nuclear deterrent. On this view, Trident can hardly deter al-Qaeda. Yet there are still states with “dubious intentions” that sponsor terrorist groups and, since the Trident replacement is due to last until 2050, no one can predict what threats might exist then, especially given changes in Russia.
For many Labour and some Lib Dem MPs, however, it is a matter of morality. Possessing nuclear weapons is plain wrong, the old cry of CND and unilateralists, as is vividly brought to life by Kenneth Morgan’s new biography of Michael Foot.
The Government has tried to take the sting out of the revolt with an innocuous motion talking merely of taking “the steps necessary to maintain the UK’s minimum strategic deterrent”. Also, as Philip Cowley and Mark Stuart, of Nottingham University, point out in their prevote note, the result may be muddied by abstentions and by a different scale of rebellions in two votes. But with Nigel Griffiths and the odd parliamentary private secretary resigning, the revolt is likely to be one of the largest apart from Iraq. Labour’s long, painful march towards realism on defence is in danger of going into reverse.

Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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Nuclear weapons should be scrapped, but we should keep the delivery system. We could fill the warheads with rose petals. Then when our children are melting on front of us we can rain the petals down on our attackers citizens. Could you imagine how bad they would feel - while the ash of Britons drifts of in the wind..
Richard, London,
As serving member of the armed forces, just back from afghanistan, i would prefer to see the £20bn cost of the replacement spent on armaments and weapons we will and can, without the US' permission, actually use. These missiles where required during the cold war but not now. For a cash strapped MoD there seems to be a lot of money available that could be spent on upgrading our Fibreglass armoured landrovers to something a bit more protective don't you think?
Dunc, Wiltshire, UK
Mr. Blair (and presumably Mr Riddell) justifies replacement by saying "it's an uncertain world". Well, of course it is, and then the obvious question is - under what circumstances in an uncertain world would the UK use it's Nuclear weapons?
In any event, it would have to be with US approval as they would, by previous agreements, control targetting of these weapons.
If the answer (even for supporters, I hope ) is never, then it's a 20 Billion pound plus bluff and then we need to evaluate what would be better value for money.
How many extra "fast reaction" battalions with state of the art modern weaponry would that buy, which is surely much more relevant to foreseeable scenarios and also a truly truly independant deterrent. And this would not be a bluff, but a ongoing and vital part of protecting our security.
Guy Merrick, Maldon, UK
Unilateral disarmement? Wake up. Like it not, nuclear weaponary buys you respect and a place around the table of world politics. It's a quaint thought that we could abandon our military and bcome neutral 'like the swiss'. But it is also a pathetic one - I disagree with ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, with medieval warlords in Sierra Leone and with mysogenistic religious zealots trying to keep Afghanistan in the 10th century. Without the bravery and the kit to back it up, our moral assertions count for nothing.
roy pinnock, London,
The timing of this vote has everything to do with Blair and his obsession with creating a legacy; a legacy that attempts to give the British public the idea that the Labour Party is strong on defence.
Alex, London,
Trident should be scrapped ,we need nuclear power stations not nuclear weapons but if we did we can drop them from planes. Better still britain could just become neutral like the swedes and swiss and stop grandstanding like egotistical idiots.
Blair and Brown have spent enough of this countries future on unreformed policies to keep them in power. this is just wasting more cash.The generation of enemies that Blair has created with the Iraq war debacle will not be quashed or appeased with the nuclear threat , the money should be spent on retention of forces personnel.Blair and Brown have so much to answer for ..........but they never will
Guy, Hamburg,
Peter Riddell is incorrect to state asking for a postponement is a diversion. The existing Trident system has many more years left in it.
Britain should not make a decision on something this significant (i) before the NPT talks in 2010, or (ii) while the global situation is so uncertain, and we do not know what nuclear capacity we may need in the future.
The vote here and now is nothing to do with Britain's defence responsibilities, and everything to do with Mr Blair looking for a legacy.
Stephen Tall, Oxford, UK
Just another example of how British governments aren't fit for purpose
1) Not independant. The US makes them and controls them. Any British use is inconceivable without US puppetry.
2) The Army is in meltdown with overstretch and poor equipment.
If my roof has blown off do I really care about an insurance policy protecting me against invasion from Mars?
eddie reader, birmingham, uk
We did not change our defence posture for the Red Brigades or the Baader-Meinhof and yet both posed a greater threat to EU governments than Al-Qaeda which is an overblown spectre the Americans have inflated with Hollywood panache.
I do not think bin Laden and his friends should determine the strategic defence posture of my country; France has a more sensible approach.
One thing that will never happen in Britain is investment in a large conventional army nor will conscription raise the manpower. Britain should cease the peacekeeping game and start acting like a military power rather than international social workers. No more Bosnias, no more Kosovos, no more Iraqs, no Darfur.
Observer, Leeds, England
I marvel at the sheer inconsistency of the anti-nuke position. Iran is "entitled" to nuclear weapons, but we must give them up just as the mad mullahs acquire them. The cold war is "over", yet more countries today are nuclear armed than at its height. Nuclear weapons are terrifying, except for Britain's, which don't deter anyone. Nuclear cooperation with the US proves that the UK is no longer independent, but defence cooperation with Europe would be a marvellous thing. They are not really our nuclear weapons, since we buy some components, yet the effort of developing will exhaust our engineering resources. Gorbachev is right to insist the UK must give up its nukes, yet Russia constantly upgrades its own.
There may be a good argument against nuclear weapons, but for anyone to base a decision on such a parcel of contradictions would be a huge risk.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/US