Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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Europe will be the trickiest political test for Tony Blair in his remaining weeks in office, and for Gordon Brown in his first few months in power. There is no question of reviving in full the European Union constitution that was defeated in the French and Dutch referendums two years ago. The question is how much will be retained – whether we are talking about minimal changes (the view of many EU members) or a minimalist treaty (the British, Dutch, Danish and Czech view).
Mr Blair and Mr Brown are trying to find a middle way between what is acceptable to Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, and the probable French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, and what is politically saleable in Britain without a referendum, which would probably be lost.
The earlier British line was that the EU should concentrate first on urgent issues such as the Doha trade round and economic reform. But Mrs Merkel and José Manuel Barroso, the Commission President, have won the day in arguing that such policy reforms will not happen without institutional changes to take account of the enlargement of the EU to 27 members.
No matter what is agreed, many Eurosceptics will denounce the deal as a sell-out, a constitution by the back door, and demand a referendum. The official Conservative position sounds hardline but contains some room for manoeuvre, as William Hague has hinted in recent speeches. He has said: “It is vital that any new treaty that transfers power from Britain to the EU should be subject to a referendum.”
“Transfers power” is a subjective term. Mr Blair portrays his proposals as similar to earlier EU treaties, such as Amsterdam and Nice, claiming that they were merely amending agreements that were not subject to referendums. He wants to limit any treaty to new voting rules (a key Polish objective, as Mr Blair will discuss in Warsaw today), a new EU president in place of the six-month rotating presidency, a foreign minister to take over from the present representative of the Council of Ministers, and greater powers for national parliaments. But he wants to exclude changes to the legal identity of the EU and the charter of fundamental rights. Many countries, especially the two thirds who have ratified the original treaty, will want more of the original constitution.
The warnings issued by Mr Blair and other EU leaders about a larger treaty being lost in referendum defeats are credible. But blocking a deal will not work either. The institutional debate will not disappear. There are also downsides. If Britain is seen yet again as the awkward laggard, Mr Brown will find it hard to create a leadership troika with Mrs Merkel and Mr Sarkozy.
Mr Brown has always been very cautious, when dealing with the issue of the EU, to head off attacks by the Tories and the Eurosceptic media. There is no way that Mr Blair, with his reduced authority, can any longer bounce Mr Brown. Even though Mr Blair will attend the EU summit in late June, the negotiating position will be a joint one.

Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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"To be honest I feel its a toss up between Europe and America: have a referendum on THAT and the British public will choose Europe."
Oh dear, Pierre. How wrong can you be. In our minds we are more comfortable with America and we are not, and never will be, Europeans.
Bring on the referendum and here's to the good ol' US of A!
Jakey, Welling, England
Britain have to decide who they want to be with, Europe or America. It is clear that they are not strong enough on the international stage to go it alone.
LB, Brussels,
I am generally strongly Pro European so would agree with a universal constitution - to some extent. I feel it would be best to countries decide certain laws/constitutional articles themselves, similar to the US federal/state system. Still think there should be a referendum though. To be honest I feel its a toss up between Europe and America: have a referendum on THAT and the British public will choose Europe.
Pierre, London,
Parliament is sovereign and no EU treaty which is in the contemplation of anyone, other than crazed Federalists in the Commission, would involve surrender of this sovereignty. As such, there is and would be no problem for Parliament to pass an Act which repeals, as a whole or in part, any previous Act which binds us into the EU.
Hence, if we wish to leave the EU we can and will be able to do so at any time. It is our own politicians whom we should castigate for the UK's surrender to the EU. In particular, the Conservatives must never be forgiven. For it is under Conservative administrations that the first and all the most significant subsequent sell outs have taken place.
In short, our own politicians are complicit in the this grotesque confidence trick.
Ultimately, the EU will fold up or shrink because it impoverishes its peoples. When China and Russia start to turn the screw economically there will be rebellion. Meanwhile don't expect anything new from Gordon Brown.
Iain Cassie, London,
which part of we don't want the e.u. doe's goverment not
understand I will say it if no body else will the UK people
are an island race and very proud and that's the way its
going to stay ,the goverment tell the world we are part of
Europe well did Europe side with us on Iraq NO NO NO
well Mr brown and his party may think that we the
middle-class under dogs of the UK are stupid and fools
but as you all know at the next general election we are
going to commit you to the history books.
george william taylor, hull, uk
One would have assumed, that after the entire Iraq-thing, the first, second and last thing on Brown's to-do list would be to reclaim at least some smallish fraction of the UK's sovereignty from the US...
Silly me! Crapping on the Continentals is SOOOO much more fun, isn't it?
Roel, Leuven, Belgium
Blair is tiresome . He has still to answer for his arrogant mismanagement and ego based decisions that cost so many lives .
eric courtney, sarasota, USA
I detect the apologists already beginning their spin. Having tried "tidying up exercise" It now appears we are being offered a choice between "minimum" and "minilist"
Nonsense Mr Riddell we are being sold the same old pack of lies.
As for a "troika" with France and Germany : Get real !
Peter Bolt, Redditch, UK
There is no doubt that the EU is in need of reform, there are many of aspects of institutional reform that must be tackled to allow for more accountable, transparent, democratic decision-making. This includes clarifyinging the relationship between people and the institutions. There are many forms of citizen participation, as well as a referendum, this should include a deliberative forum of citizens to define ordinary people's priorities. Only by giving citizens direct involvement can trust be restored.
See for example the Power Inquiry's recent European Citizens' Consultation - UK
Oli Henman, London,
"Britain is seen yet again as the awkward laggard" - I seem to remember the French and the Dutch voted it out - we never got a shout in the matter.
The ONLY problem is that any constitution will undoubtedly be written by the gang of career politicians who infest our European countries living at public expense having never made a contribution to society.
Constitutions are too important to be left up to politicians who will only ever write rules that keep themselves in power.
KR, Stockport,
Better off out than having mendacious politicians selling our sovereignty cheaply do they can granstand at EU summits.
I don't give a toss what is acceptable to Frau Merkel or can be sold to Sarko. What counts is the views of the British people whos' views should be heard in a referendum.
Mike, Brighton, UK
Why the hell should we have to worry about what is 'acceptable' to peole in other countries with a completely separate history of social development?
Membership of the EU is dragging us down to a point where we will not even recognise ourselves any more. Why on earth have we become so frightened of being ourselves? Well I think the answer is that we haven't really - we are simply too passive as a people to stand up to the posturing idiots in parliament who are leading us down this ridiculous path.
If the people in Europe can't trust each other not to invade or declare war that should be a matter for them to sort out. The best thing for us to do is to stand well apart from their mess and keep our own defences well up to the task of repelling their incursions when they lurch in our direction.
As things are, they are being enabled to emasculate us through EU law. Our politicians have a duty to stop that in its tracks: And who wants Brown leading us anyway? Very few if any! Monstrous!!
D. O'Rorke, Farnham, Surrey
Every new EU agreement, whatever more modest goals it pursues, has a (usually tacit) aim of increasing the scope of EU power and influence. This is true even when it purports to limit central power - remember subsidiarity?
Can we please have an answer from a competent consitutional lawyer to one short question: what options remain open to preserve and if possible extend our areas of independence?
As a layman, I am very much afraid that our only realistic choice is to denounce the Treaty of Rome and leave the Union. This would be a sad thing, but perhaps necessary.
Michael Bruce, Selby, Yorkshire
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