Failure matters electorally more than success, as voters punish incompetence and pocket competence. As an issue becomes less of a problem, such as unemployment and, until recently inflation, it becomes less significant for the electorate. In some cases, a political breakthrough and success, such as the revival of devolution in Northern Ireland, is largely ignored.

But incompetence is very damaging. That is why the recent retreats over the junior doctors’ job selection system and yesterday over home information packs should worry Gordon Brown. They have reinforced the impression of a drifting Government and error-prone ministers.

Many of the criticisms have been over the top and, of course, no member of the public has yet been affected. The shambles over the doctors’ appointment system has nothing directly to do with the care of patients and might never have done so. The row over Home Information Packs has been in anticipation of their introduction on June 1. This has now been delayed until August 1 and then only in a modified form.

Much of the lead has been taken by opposition politicians, such as the Conservatives’ Michael Gove on home improvement and Andrew Lansley over the doctors (like Sir Menzies Campbell over the freedom of information exemption for MPs). But the housing and health campaigns have been effective because they have been fuelled by the grievances of professional groups. The row has not just been about the merits of the changes, but also about the obvious failings in their introduction, and the justified sense that ministers have not been in control of events and the resulting administrative mess.

These impressions can be very corrosive for any government’s reputation. Voters like to feel that ministers know what they are doing and have a grip. The decline and fall of the Tories in the 1990s can easily be measured by the question that Ipsos MORI has asked for some time about party image, and in particular being professional in approach. This peaked for the Tories at between 42 and 49 per cent at the 1983, 1987 and 1992 elections, but then fell below 20 per cent in late summer 1992, and to a low of 8 per cent in March 1995. This measure never rose higher than 13 per cent before the Tories lost office in May 1997.

Labour’s low point for being seen as professional was 8 per cent in summer 1992, rose to 21 per cent before the 1997 victory and peaked at 33 per cent that September. This measure touched 22 per cent in autumn 2001 before falling to a low of 10 per cent last September.

On a shorter-term comparison, Populus has asked voters each autumn whether they think parties are competent and capable. Labour has fluctuated between 39 per cent in September 2003, 46 per cent in 2004 and 51 per cent in 2005, before falling to 36 per cent eight months ago. The incoming Brown team quickly needs to get a grip and regain its reputation for competence or it will be in danger of losing the electorate’s sympathy and support.

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