Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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David Cameron was given a sharp jolt yesterday. The long phoney war is over. Real politics has now begun. The Gordon Brown onslaught is under way.
So Mr Cameron quickly needs to sort out his party, and where it stands, because an election could come sooner than previously expected: no “snap election” this year, but quite possibly one in summer or autumn next year.
Mr Brown had waited a long time, not just the 13 years of Tony Blair’s leadership but the 24 years he has been an MP. After a pretty smooth transition from Mr Blair in recent weeks, if not earlier, Mr Brown is seizing power with relish. We can expect a very busy few weeks as he highlights “a new government with new priorities”, and not just a continuation of the Blair years.
His speech to yesterday’s special party conference in Manchester was stronger on themes and values than detailed policies. His mantra was “the challenge of change”. The language and style was of a passionate, “conviction”, social democrat, very different in tone from what we have got used to from Mr Blair.
Mr Brown acknowledged worries over affordable housing, which had become a leading theme of the deputy leadership campaign, by saying that the housing minister will attend Cabinet meetings. He also underlined his support for raising spending on state schools and for a “new settlement” for the NHS, setting out where accountability and the role of central government lie.
But the main news was political. Harriet Harman, who won the deputy leadership by a whisker, will also be party chairman. So while Ms Harman has achieved a personal triumph in returning to the Cabinet after nine years, she will not be deputy prime minister or hold one of the main offices of state. She will not be in the headlines. Her role will be a party rather than a governmental one in helping to revive Labour in the country.
Less noticed, Mr Brown also announced that Douglas Alexander, his close friend and now the Transport and Scotland Secretary, would be the general election co-ordinator, so “that we are ready not just to fight but to win a general election”, adding “whenever the prime minister decides to call it”.
Ignore all talk of a snap election this year. Mr Brown wants to set out his ideas, put forward his own Queen’s Speech and launch a debate on constitutional reform. Moreover, the rest of the spending review, including future plans for the NHS, will not be announced until October. The Brown team believes that he needs time to establish his new identity with voters.
There is already evidence of a “Brown bounce”, with Labour ahead in one weekend opinion poll, mainly at the expense of the Liberal Democrats rather than the Tories. Mr Brown should be able to dominate the headlines for several weeks, despite Tory attempts to counter-attack by calling for a referendum on the draft European Union treaty and by challenging his record.
Mr Cameron and the Tories will seek to present themselves as the fresh start and Mr Brown as the past. But Mr Brown showed again yesterday that he is both a shrewd and adroit fighter.
Like past prime ministers who have taken over in mid-term, such as Harold Macmillan in 1957 and John Major in 1990, Mr Brown will want his own mandate. The timing will obviously depend on when he thinks that Labour can win. But don’t rule out next year.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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