Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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David Cameron was given a sharp jolt yesterday. The long phoney war is over. Real politics has now begun. The Gordon Brown onslaught is under way.
So Mr Cameron quickly needs to sort out his party, and where it stands, because an election could come sooner than previously expected: no “snap election” this year, but quite possibly one in summer or autumn next year.
Mr Brown had waited a long time, not just the 13 years of Tony Blair’s leadership but the 24 years he has been an MP. After a pretty smooth transition from Mr Blair in recent weeks, if not earlier, Mr Brown is seizing power with relish. We can expect a very busy few weeks as he highlights “a new government with new priorities”, and not just a continuation of the Blair years.
His speech to yesterday’s special party conference in Manchester was stronger on themes and values than detailed policies. His mantra was “the challenge of change”. The language and style was of a passionate, “conviction”, social democrat, very different in tone from what we have got used to from Mr Blair.
Mr Brown acknowledged worries over affordable housing, which had become a leading theme of the deputy leadership campaign, by saying that the housing minister will attend Cabinet meetings. He also underlined his support for raising spending on state schools and for a “new settlement” for the NHS, setting out where accountability and the role of central government lie.
But the main news was political. Harriet Harman, who won the deputy leadership by a whisker, will also be party chairman. So while Ms Harman has achieved a personal triumph in returning to the Cabinet after nine years, she will not be deputy prime minister or hold one of the main offices of state. She will not be in the headlines. Her role will be a party rather than a governmental one in helping to revive Labour in the country.
Less noticed, Mr Brown also announced that Douglas Alexander, his close friend and now the Transport and Scotland Secretary, would be the general election co-ordinator, so “that we are ready not just to fight but to win a general election”, adding “whenever the prime minister decides to call it”.
Ignore all talk of a snap election this year. Mr Brown wants to set out his ideas, put forward his own Queen’s Speech and launch a debate on constitutional reform. Moreover, the rest of the spending review, including future plans for the NHS, will not be announced until October. The Brown team believes that he needs time to establish his new identity with voters.
There is already evidence of a “Brown bounce”, with Labour ahead in one weekend opinion poll, mainly at the expense of the Liberal Democrats rather than the Tories. Mr Brown should be able to dominate the headlines for several weeks, despite Tory attempts to counter-attack by calling for a referendum on the draft European Union treaty and by challenging his record.
Mr Cameron and the Tories will seek to present themselves as the fresh start and Mr Brown as the past. But Mr Brown showed again yesterday that he is both a shrewd and adroit fighter.
Like past prime ministers who have taken over in mid-term, such as Harold Macmillan in 1957 and John Major in 1990, Mr Brown will want his own mandate. The timing will obviously depend on when he thinks that Labour can win. But don’t rule out next year.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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If recent poll trends continue, will Mr Cameron [a] gradually stop calling for a General Election or [b] continue to do so in the hope of projecting a confident image while recognising that, luckily for him, a General Election is probably at least 18 months away?
R. Haggar, Norwich, England
A very well-balanced article. Gordon Brown has served this country well in his years as Chancellor - our economy is sound. He is a man of high intelligence and principle and deserves his chance as PM.
The defection of any MP to another party would be a political godsend to that party so why is your other correspondent describing it as a humiliation for Gordon Brown? It sounds very much like sour grapes to me.
The 24 years of political experience will stand Gordon Brown in good stead when he judges the time is ripe for an election - what is Cameron going to do to make up for this - more spin learned second-hand from Tony Blair?
Kath Cozens, Cheshire, UK
Couldn't agree more with the article. It will be interestng to see how it all pans out over the coming months. 'The long phoney war is over. Real politics has begun.' Hopefully it has hit Cameron as hard as this. I think he should be worried, very worried indeed.
David Smith, Glasgow, UK
Having seen Gordon Brown's mightily impressive speech this afternoon and compared it with the waffling drivel we got from David Cameron the other day, I think we can safely assume that Labour is on course for its fourth general election victory in a row with, dare I say it, an increased majority.
K Philips, London,
I find it more than a little worrying that this was not a contest for the leadership and that others were afraid to stand against Mr Brown.
I do not think in his shoes I would like to think I had been made Prime Minister this way.
I thought we lived in a democracy! perhaps I have it got it wrong. Then again maybe I am just getting cynical about the government of our country and what the people think does not matter. They want to take heed of what has happened in Scotland to see what the people think. I worry for England what the backlash could be there.
I just think it is very wrong that Mr Brown has just walked in to this job. It is not his ability! it is the fact that he and Mr Blair worked this out between themselves and no one else was allowed to stand against him
Anne Gunn, Ardrishaig. Argyll, Scotland
The sooner we can have an election the better,all these years of ignoring the voters has to come to an end.
Referendums were promised long ago on all major issues, the British people have a right to democracy. At least three quarters of the population do not want to be in The EEC at all, and neither do we want immigration on any scale whatsoever.
We are simply being exploited by polititians who have no loyalty to England, and many of them are not even English, Blair,Brown, etc. At a time when the Scots and the Welsh have their own Parliament, the English voice is simply not heard, if we let these charlatans get away with it for any longer, we will soon suffer the same fate as the Hawaians and end up as strangers in our own land.
C. Burghard, LANCING, ENGLAND
Both Harold Macmillan and John Major went on to win their respective general elections, some will say -against expectations
Until future "events" unfold in a strange and major way against the current government , I reckon Mr Cameron should be a worried man..
william grierson, Kimpton, UK
The sooner we can have an election the better,all these years of ignoring the voters has to come to an end.
Referendums were promised long ago on all major issues, the British people have a right to democracy. At least three quarters of the population do not want to be in The EEC at all, and neither do we want immigration on any scale whatsoever.
We are simply being exploited by polititians who have no loyalty to England, and many of them are not even English, Blair,Brown, etc. At atime when the Scots and the Welsh have their own Parliament, the English voice is simply not heard, if we let these charlatans get away with it for any longer, we will soon suffer the same fate as the Hawaians and end up as strangers in our own land.
C. Burghard, LANCING, ENGLAND
So, Mr Riddell, you think Brown is shrewd and on the onslaught, do you? That is, until a crisis emerges and Brown will be seen cuddling those poor children in Africa once more.
Where will he be without them?
P Granger, Sussex, UK