Peter Riddell, Political Briefing
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Calling a general election is one of the trickiest decisions any prime minister faces, because it can prove fatal. Get it wrong, and the leader who has miscalculated is likely to be out of a job before long.
Prime ministers obviously want to be sure that their party has a good chance of winning a working majority. That is why, despite this week’s speculation, the odds are still against an October election.
Of the 26 elections in the past century, nine came at the end of wars, the collapse of a government or when the parliament had run its full course. Of the 17 discretionary elections, prime ministers made the right decisions in nine by either increasing or maintaining their Commons majorities. Three were draws.
But five turned out to be failures: in 1923, when Stanley Baldwin lost a big overall majority just a year into the life of the parliament (though he won an even bigger margin a year later); in 1951, when a worn-out Clement Attlee called an election that he might have won later; in 1970, when Harold Wilson misinterpreted an upturn in Labour’s poll ratings and lost to Edward Heath; in February 1974, when Heath called, and lost, the “who governs Britain” election; and in autumn 1978, when James Callaghan failed to call an election that he might have won – or at least held on as a minority government – only to lose badly the following May.
The historically-minded Gordon Brown is well aware of these precedents. Not surprisingly, he is making preparations and looking at raising funds, which is very necessary given Labour’s still huge debts. Admittedly, a lack of finances has never deterred a party leader from calling an election that looks winnable; donors have always produced their cheque books when needed. However, to be effective, money is needed well before a campaign starts, rather than during the final battle, to allow parties to recruit staff and strengthen their party organisation. That is why much of the £2.4 million donations from Michael Brown in 2005 came too late to make a real difference to the Liberal Democrats.
But what are the pros and cons of an October election? The temptations are obvious: riding a surge in the polls and winning a mandate in his own right. Mr Brown cannot be certain that the economy and his ratings will be so favourable next year. On the other side, of course, the Brown bounce could be ephemeral. As I discussed yesterday, such post-handover boosts can be very short-lived, even a mere few weeks. Anthony Eden got in just in time in 1955. A small swing back to the Tories and Labour’s overall majority could easily disappear. The Conservatives hope that calling for a referendum on the European treaty would mobilise sceptical voters. But this has never been a vote winner in the past. Moreover, an October election would come before the end of the inter-governmental negotiations, giving Mr Brown a chance to defuse this issue.
The political scene could look very different after the holidays, as it often does. The Brown team will follow every poll and every focus group in September to assess the strength and sustainability of the bounce. Managing expectations will be crucial to prevent either an unstoppable bandwagon or a sense of letdown. Remember, however, that Mr Brown has always been very cautious and risk averse.

Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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Vincent O'Hagan, Bridgend, Wales
If "rubish" schooling and the consequent inability to use capital letters correctly ( "brown...cameron") are the cause of "ALL crime" as "paul, bracknell, berkshire" states, I suggest that the Thames Valley Police pay a visit to his residence, without delay.
J.A.W. Clough, REYSSOUZE, France
Euphemism Paul in Bracknell you are nearly as deluded as David Cameron. Admittedly, I donât know how best to run a government or what the causes of crime are, but at least I know one thing. That you donât either!
p.s. is cheap labour the new conservative euphemism for people with a different skin colour to your own?
Harry , London,
Both cameron and brown have to understand what the majority of people want and I don't think either do .... We want out referendum as promised We want much more efficient government (and so reduce taxation, while improving services. Remember our prosperity is DESPITE Browns taxes, pension stealing, and an increase in real taxation of over 30% in 10 years which is totally unprecidented in modern times. We want people who have run real businesses and can do the same in governement (very few of the current government have a clue). We want politicians to resolve serious issues such as fixing Law and order .... remember rubish schooling and draconian regulation are the cause of nearly ALL crime, as is excessive taxation and lack of well paid jobs, or let us do it.. We must close our borders, and reduce the influx of cheap labour We want REAL leaders who are open, truthful, honest and above all make the necessary decisions for the people, not simply to stay in power
paul, bracknel, berkshire
The media dismissal of any Tory strategy to raise the European issue is mistaken. It conflates two issues: one is what the Conservative policy should be; and the other other is the extent to which the Party should emphasise it. Unfortunately too many have fallen for the (impressively spun) Labour line that mentioning it once at PMQs constitutes 'banging on' about it.
In the June 1999 European elections the Conservatives massively outperformed their May 1999 performance in the local elections. In 2004 the victory was less, owing to a spectacular UKIP result. The public seem to be with the eurosceptic parties on Europe. MORI polls show through the Tories' dark days the public has rated them equal with Labour on Europe, in contrast with large deficits on most issues. The problem in 2001 was not a sceptical stance to the EU but the priority it was given by Hague. Cameron is right to raise the issue - and make it into one of a broken promise - but he's also right to not let it dominate.
Tim, London, UK
A sensible article. I'd agree that the PM picking the date of the election gives odvious advantages but also huge risks. May is the likely date, but Labour talking about an earlier election could cause the Tories considerable pain.
Could the Brown bounce actually be a reaction by the public to Conservative in fighting?
Yellow Warrior, Reading, Berks, uk
*Brown* will avoid a potentially difficult party conference season? *Brown*?
Of all the three main party leaders he currently looks like having the least troublesome conference!
Marcus Cotswell, London, UK
I still see immigration as the big issue, if only the opposition has the nerve to grasp it. The fact is that net migration to southern England is completely unsustainable - you only have to look at the situation in Slough, Reading and other places along the M4 corridor to see the simple truth of that. Then there are the missed opportunities created by the sheer incompetence of the present government - just take HIPS as a shining example of that, never mind the chaos in the Home Office. Once a campaign started, the "Brown bounce" would soon evaporate.
Richard, Kidderminster, England
Brown would be mad not to go in October. He would avoid a potentially difficult party conference season given that not much will have changed on Iraq. At the same time there is the growing crises in the housing market. By next spring I predict that prices will be falling. This will temper any feel good factor. I would put money on October 11th - but maybe he will break further with the past and hold the election on Sunday 21st?
David Sindall, London, GB