Peter Riddell: Analysis
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David Cameron has been oversold. Just as he was being talked up excessively a year ago as the Tories’ saviour, the golden boy from Notting Hill, so now everything he touches seems to turn to dross. Both extreme views are wrong.
The rough patch that he has hit over the past few weeks is usual for an opposition leader. Ted Heath often had such periods in the late 1960s, as Margaret Thatcher did a decade later, and Neil Kinnock had them until his final two years as Labour leader. There are similar features: tactical errors, bad luck (being in Rwanda during the floods here), grumbling by disaffected MPs, stories of tensions among close advisers, and a critical press.
And, of course, a bad run of opinion polls - though the Brown bounce is only slightly larger than Mr Cameron’s own 18 months ago. Voting intentions can be volatile. But the latest Populus survey this week showed a big drop in leader attributes such as strength and having what it takes to be a good prime minister. But Mr Cameron remains ahead on charisma and likeability. Talk of getting rid of him is bonkers, a Tory suicide note that would be turned into a bigger Labour majority.
Mr Cameron has the correct basic strategy but winning power was always going to be a long job, just as it was for Labour in the 1980s and 1990s. It depends both on the governing party coming apart, and yourself becoming appealing.
The most important development recently has not been within the Tory party, but Gordon Brown’s impressive debut. Whatever doubts exist about his blizzard of initiatives, Mr Brown looks and behaves like a prime minister. He is establishing his own distinctive niche, although voters have not yet seen evidence that the change of government has made any difference to their own lives. The underestimation of Mr Brown, and his capacity to change, has been the Tories’ single most serious failure.
Summer offensives against Mr Brown are beside the point. Such attacks may be partially justified and will undoubtedly enthuse Tory activists, but they could rebound on the Conservatives. The only thing that matters for Mr Cameron is to define himself and his party. The current rows may help him to establish his own personality. The critics’ sole valid point is that voters and commentators alike have little idea about the shape of a Cameron government. “Social responsibility” or a “broken society” mean little in practice. The Tories want to reduce the relative size of the State. But how? The party is committed to taxpayer-funded schools, health and basic pensions, while complaining about squeezes on the defence and law-and-order budgets. Unless, and until, the Tories say how they would alter the size and role of the State, talk of cutting the tax burden (as opposed to cuts in individual taxes) rings hollow.
The policy reviews so far have been lively and interesting, and more are to come soon. But these are no substitute for a clear statement of what Cameron’s Britain would be like. This does not mean lots of policies. Without greater clarity, the grumbling about Mr Cameron will continue, and a bad short-term patch could turn into a long-term trend.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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As a floating voter, I am the type of person that David Cameroon needs to attract in order to win the next General Election. But what does he stand for? The Conservatives has no distinctive policies. True he has charisma but this isn't enough. His background seemed unattractive either. Not many people came from Eaton and Cambridge and married to an emtremely wealthy woman.
David Davis would get my vote!
Edwin Jacob, London, UK
Reading most of the comments above I can sense a degree of sympathy for Dave Cameron.Is he deserving of such sympathy?I think not.If you are a conservative,as many whom write above state,please do this simple test to confim it. List your ten most important policies and then try to match them with Dave Camerons policy ideas. I don`t expect you will find many that match. Take for example taxation ,or education,crime,or size of the State.Please do tell me what is remotely Conservative about Cameron in these areas?Cameron is trying to turn his Party into another Liberal/Left,pc, trendie Party.Is that what most voters or Conservatives want? I think not. My view is that if Cameron and his kind wish to be wet liberals,I can think of two parties they could join at once. Why do they want to be considered Conservatives?
Pat, Notts,
Whoever or whatever saves the Conservative party, it will not be 'chippies' like Mr Green of Essex. Of course this is not the time to change leader - but I believe that the only Conservative politician with the intellect to match Gordon Brown is William Hague. If Hague were to return to the leadership after Cameron loses the next election (there are precedents for this), the Commons would see a true battle of the giants, as distinct from the pitiable farce of recent years.
Andrew May, Wimbledon, UK
the comments above are music to my ears i look foward to yet another Labour Win the longer the nasty party stays out of power the better for britain Go Gordon!
JAMES VOSS, MELBOURN E , AUSTRALIA
Mr Brown is the most experienced, able and sound socialist politician to become PM since Attlee. It contrasts with the lack of experience, knowledge and judgement displayed by Mr Cameron who has not been able to form a strong opposition party and government in waiting. Some would say it is too late for him to do so and the Conservative Party should move on.
Peter, London,
Should the Conservative Party do another suicidal and change from David Cameron,they will give New Labour another 5 years in office!!!
Are they so dumb and stupid to do this??
Mr Cameron is using his time in a trasistional period, changing the whole former concept of his Party to a more amenable one with a view to taking office,are the wreckers within The Conservatives willing to hand New Labour another General Election on a plate this time again,I wonder????
George Job, Coatbridge,Lanarkshire, Scotland
It is so easy for those who still belong to the old nasty party
to take a swipe at Mr Camerons refreshing outlook on how a 21st century Tory party should evolve. So who really could do any better then, where are they all lurking . More skullduggery
in the wings then? Reveal yourselves-- and finish the party off.
Mrs Maggie Snook, wool wareham, Dorset
Keeping Cameron is bonkers Mr Riddell.
People have seen through the spin and superficial charm of DC. He stands no chance of recovering his ratings unless Brown makes a complete hash of the job of PM.
Rather than being modern Cameron is in fact a throwback to Tories of earlier times - insubstantial but rich , well connected and with no experience of the lives that ordinary people live nor of what makes them tick..
How many voters own £1m houses , surround themselves with chums from public school or get plum "jobs" in the media via family connections?
Time you moved out of the Westminster Village Mr Riddell and cottoned on to the real life that most people live.
Lets have David Davis , and soon before the Tories self destruct.
Bob Green, Essex, England
The Conservative right wing kept quiet while Cameron was ahead in the polls. Now that he's behind they're squealing.
What this indicates to the voters is that the Tory party truly, deeply wants to the remain the Nasty Party, and that Cameron's "Nicey-Nicey" modernisation is a Baldrick-style cunning plan that is beginning to unravel.
Rory Harden, London,
Having voted in elections in the UK since 1959, my experience as a voter tells me that governments lose elections! the opposition does not win them!
The classic example of this was the government of John Major. It got to the stage where it could not possibly continue as it was.
So it does not matter how clever, nice, and brilliant, Cameron is, today. Brown is matching Cameron on all fronts, and Brown is the one in power, and is not making a mess.
kelvyn Richards, Trikala, Greece
I am a declared Conservative. I quite agree with Mr Riddell re DC. He is doing a good job. As far as I am concerned anyone who wants to get rid of him is both mad and politically naive.
Re policy detail this will come with time, the meat on the bones.etc. Create a narrative for now
My advice to DC is stick to your guns and use these foolish malcontents to define yourself!.
Francis Luscombe, Plymouth, UK
Surely David Cameron's diffculty is 'experience'. He had a brilliant degree at university and obviously has brains. But his experience is as a 'salesman' - salesman for the reputation of a buiness organization with a difficult reputation and then as salesman for Tory Central Office, again an organization with a difficult reputation. He is a very talented advertizing manager - but does this make a potential primeminister?
H Prideaux, Gosport, U K
It is so easy for those who still belong to the old nasty party
to take a swipe at Mr Camerons refreshing outlook on how a 21st century Tory party should evolve. So who really could do any better ,then, where are they all lurking ? More skullduggery
in the wings then? Reveal yourselves-- and finish the party off.
Mrs Maggie Snook, wool, wareham, Dorset
Quite right, the message has not yet penetrated that area of the old nasty party.
Well said. Party unity is lacking at present, there are always a few skulking in the shadows ready to take a swipe at our young leader.
Mrs Maggie Snook, wool, wareham, Dorset
"The Tories want to reduce the relative size of the State. But how? The party is committed to taxpayer-funded schools, health and basic pensions, while complaining about squeezes on the defence and law-and-order budgets. Unless, and until, the Tories say how they would alter the size and role of the State, talk of cutting the tax burden (as opposed to cuts in individual taxes) rings hollow. "
Well done Peter, you have got the the very heart of the matter and the problem for the Tory Party as it approaches a General Election, whether in the autumn or the spring. You have demolished the Conservatives in one paragraph. Labour activists, look no further than this column and prepare for a fourth term!
Dan Orme, Cheshire, England
When is Cameron going to have his "Clause 4 Moment" by stating his policies on Europe.He has already one U Turn by not withdrawing as promised his MEPs from the central party in Brussels. Cameron knows this day of decision will split his party again. So Cameron will not make any major decision on Europe.
Bill Rees, Pieusse, France
Mr Brown's bounce can't last for ever - there are far too many skeletons in his cupboard - pensions, tax, prisons, educational standards, the EU referendum, his general authoritarianism
Mr Cameron must take heed of the complaints that he lacks substance by espousing a conservative set of values, small government, individual responsibility, deregulation, decentralised decision making in the great services where there is a consensus to state provision - Education, Health and the Police.
There are plenty of ways to oppose Labours appalling record without creating hostages to fortune.
Finally as his policy reviews start to report in then this philosphy can be clothed in some policies which will be attractive to an electorate highly disillusioned by government in general.
cuffleyburgers, Lucca,
When is Cameron going to have his "Clause 4 Moment" by stating his policies on Europe.He has already had one U Turn by not withdrawing as promised his MEPs from the central party in Brussels. Cameron knows this day of decision will split his party again. So Cameron will not make any major decision on Europe.
Bill Rees, Pieusse, France
I agree. And before too long voters will surely recall that Brown was up to his neck in the appalling government of the Blair era. Moreover, English voters may well want to question Brown's validity to preside over legislation which will not affect his own constituents.
paul turfery, Cork, Ireland
Cameron had the perfect excuse to cancel his already highly criticised trip to Rwanda. But he still went to the sun when his constituents were up to their necks in floods.
You have to wonder what sort of disaster would persuade him to cancel a trip abroad.
Just as a local MP he deserves to loose his seat at the next election.
Steve Byrne, Christchurch, UK
When is Cameron going to have his "Clause 4 Moment" by stating his policies on Europe.He has already had one U Turn by not withdrawing as promised his MEPs from the central party in Brussels. Cameron knows this day of decision will split his party again. So Cameron will not make any major decision on Europe.
Bill Rees, Pieusse, France
Why do the Tories do this ? where is their loyalty to their leader ? this disunity is exacly what caused their last set of problems.
They must all sing fron the same hymn sheet , be a cohesive unit & work together.
The first bit of good news for labour & the members start to beat up Cameron, he is a decent man who needs to know he can rely on them.
Members must work with him not against.
maggie Millington, Brittany, France