Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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Gordon Brown and David Cameron have succeeded in changing their public images over the past year to move closer to the position of the average voter, where Tony Blair successfully placed himself for so long. A new Populus poll for The Times, undertaken over the weekend, shows that voters have reassessed their opinions of Mr Brown and Mr Cameron, making the centre ground more crowded, with the Liberal Democrats seen as further to the left.
As in the past four years, Populus has conducted a special poll of voters’ views about the main parties and their leaders before the annual conference season. Full details of the poll of 1,004 adults between September 7 and 9 will appear on the Monday of each conference and then on www.populus.co.uk.
To set the scene, voters have been asked to place themselves, the three main parties and their leaders on a left-right spectrum. Political opinions are more complicated than just this measure (for instance, covering liberal versus authoritarian), but the specturm provides a revealing pointer about how voters view politics and how their opinions change.
On a 0 to 10 scale, from left to right, the average voter has moved slightly farther to the right of centre, to 5.37, from 5.27 a year ago.
The most striking change has been the convergence of voters’ views of the two main parties and their leaders. They now put Mr Brown at 5.16, 0.31 points to the right of last year, and virtually the same place on the spectrum as the Labour Party (at 5.20). Mr Brown is the closest of the three leaders to the average voter, just 0.17 to the left. A year ago, Mr Blair was in almost exactly the same position as the average voter.
There is also good news for Mr Cameron as he has sought to change his party’s image and appeal to the centre ground. Voters now put him on 5.63, 0.37 to the left of a year ago. This means that he has halved the distance between voters’ image of him and where they put themselves.
The public puts the Conservative Party at 5.76, a leftward shift of 0.33, their closest to the centre in any of the five surveys so far. The gap between Mr Cameron and Mr Brown has thus narrowed from 1.15 to 0.47 over the past year and the gap between the Tories and Labour from 1.12 to 0.56.
Conservative voters have, however, moved 0.25 to the right to 6.30, and, as before, put their own party farther to the right. Tory voters also put Mr Cameron much farther to the right than the public generally, at 6.51, a gap of 0.88.
Voters believe that Sir Menzies Campbell and the Liberal Democrats have moved slightly leftwards, away from the average voter. The Lib Dems, at 4.53, are now 0.67 to the left of Labour, nearly double the gap of a year ago. Lib Dem voters are, at 4.63, farther to the left than previously and they see their own party as slightly to the right of centre. Lib Dem voters put Sir Menzies well to the right of themselves at 5.28, a wider gap than a year ago.
Older people put themselves much farther to the right than younger people: at 5.96 for the over 65s, against 5.03 for 18 to 24-year-olds.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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"So the statisticians have proved that a minority of voters think that party leaders have altered their opinions to try and win votes - I hope this isn't being paid for by my tax bill!
KR, Stockport,
Ah yes, the 'I'll say anything to get a vote' type of politics. This is becoming more common by the day. Along with the inability to deliver.
Judy , Liverpool, england
"
Hit the nail on the head for me there with them comments...
They do what they wish and claim anything they want to get a vote then fail to deliver on the promises... I guess he's proving this with not giving the public the option to vote on the new EU Treaty that is "95% the same as the EU Constitution"... which Labor promised to hold a national referendum on in the manifesto!
What's Gordon so scared about the country voting against the EU? Maybe his European financial backers/bankers have vested interest in us being ruled, as one, under the EU.
Andrew Towell, Hartlepool, England
The French ban all polls immediately before an election, I have always admired this but would no like to reverse it, ban all poll UNTIL an election. Please please please stop telling us about the end of Cameron honeymoon, Brown Bounce or anyother "latest poll findings".
3-4 a week is a bit much!
Dan Gill, Norwich,
The Left/Right divide is misleading and belongs to the nineteenth century. It only adds confusion to the debate amongst the electorate. Perhaps that is deliberate? The Con/Lab/Lib parties are all obsessed with occupying "the centre ground" but their idea of 'the centre ground' is some sort of woolly compromise which never gets to the root of any of the issues which confront the nation.
Surely common sense determines that ultimately 'the centre ground' is that upon which most people agree. As your correspondent Joan Blackwell rightly says, the BNP occupies that territory increasingly. If their policies are characterised as "extreme" or "far right" - the term the media love to use - that is because the old gang parties simply want to frighten people off as they themselves are terrified of having their cosy monopoly on the political system broken up. The pressures that uncontrolled immigration have placed on society require a robust response. Most people recognise that reality.
David Moon, Seaford, East Sussex
What's the difference between the Labour party and the Tory Party.
Answer: None what's so ever!
Edwin Jacob, Hounslow, UK
So basically they're all the same then, well I didn't know that, thanks.
peter reddington, Leeds, W Yorks
The division amongs the parties today has far more to do with being libertarian and authoritarian or taking a socially liberal or socially reactionary/conservative stance which leaves the old left right spectrum outdated.
The media also plays a role in (mis)-representing issues as left or right of centre. One good example is immigration: Language such as "tougher controls" on the influx overseas workers makes the issue sound reactionary , right wing and illiberal - whereas the need to closely monitor the type of workers we need from overseas; that social advantage comes from speaking English can actually seen as a progressive policy.
The issue about what is and is not traditionally a left/right position now determines why Cameron is finding it so hard to make headway in pushing his agenda. Commentators and the Government can't wait to paint his latest ideas a shift to the right or otherwise. The terms right and left are vacuous and mean little.
Name Withheld, London,
I'll give the political analysts some statistics. At least 80% of the population of this country believe that all the political claptrap which gets shoved in their ears morning, noon and night is a pain in the backside, and what's more they couldn't give a f...
Phil de Buquet, Newport, England
the BNP are actually in the center ground.
they have the most popular policies on crime and immigration,
the two most major concerns of the public today.
when SKY polled the public it was found that there was massive support for the BNPs policies and only a tiny drop in support when the BNP were mentioned.
the BNP have risen in a few short years to be a major political force and will continue to grow massively as the issues most concerning the public are ignored or spinned, the lib/lab/con single party wont fix the decay of this country but will only add too it. as they are in fact the root cause!
the middle ground is the BNP the press who are desparately trying to hold the BNP back need to catch up with public opinion on the main issues and recognise and support the only party with the solutions. does david cameron really stand for law and order? does the labour party really stand up for the working class? who really supports grammer schools and individual achievement?
joan blackwell, southampton, hampshire
I think a quote from the TV programme GBH was "The further left you go, the more right wing you become". Don't know if its relevant, but certainly true
Mike, WGC, herts, UK
So the statisticians have proved that a minority of voters think that party leaders have altered their opinions to try and win votes - I hope this isn't being paid for by my tax bill!
KR, Stockport,
Ah yes, the 'I'll say anything to get a vote' type of politics. This is becoming more common by the day. Along with the inability to deliver.
Judy , Liverpool, england
The race to see who can be most supine?
Michael Grable, Silver Spring, USA/MD
I think so much of this is esoteric tosh. The centre - or centreground- is such a vague thing no-one ever defines what it is, while all the pundits go on about it. It must be as stable a position as a belly dancer's navel.
The idea of a straight-line spectrum from left to right is daft. It is more circular. Communists like Stalin and National socialists like Hitler supposed to be opposites are similar.
So let's find a sensible way of discussing things.
Dr j Findlater, Carnforth,
I get very confused about this left - right business ! Britsh people, on the whole , hold a mix of political views and its so difficult to define whether someone is 'left leaning' but at the same time 'lurching to the right'. ! For example I know leftie Tories and Labour/Union supporters with right wing monarchist views !! People don't cling to cold war political labels anymore ! As fo whether the population is closer to Blair, Cameron, Brown or Ming - how can we be sure what they believe ? If we swallow the spin then yes, Blair is a centrist politician from the left - but with right leanings ! However if you look closely he is a mix of corporatist and socialist (taken to extremes in the 1920's) - devolutionist but at the same time clawing powers back into Downing Street.! If you want to get on in politics - don't hold on to the old labels ! Just make everything up as you go along !!
David, Swindon, Wiltshire