Peter Riddell: Analysis
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Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling will be relieved by the Populus poll for The Times. The Northern Rock affair has posed a serious threat to the main pillars of Mr Brown’s reputation: competence in government and stable management of the economy.
These have underpinned Labour’s political and electoral advantage over the Tories for a decade and a half. For instance, in the poll taken ten days ago, before the run on Northern Rock, 51 per cent of voters named Labour as the party for managing “Britain’s economy well in bad times as well as good”, against 28 per cent naming the Tories.
But this image has now been shaken: first, by appearing not to be in control of events, the worst fate for any government. The pictures of Northern Rock depositors queueing to get their money back could have been as damaging as the poster in 1979 of long, staged queues of the unemployed (devised by the same agency, Saatchi and Saatchi, as has just been hired by Labour).
Secondly, doubts about Mr Brown’s much-hyped economic success have been questioned by David Cameron, and by Vince Cable, the Lib Dems’ economic spokesman, who has been warning for more than three years about the risks of easy lending and increasing personal debt. It would be very dangerous for Mr Brown if he were not seen as prudent.
But the poll suggests that, so far, most voters not only accept the Government’s version of what happened but also trust Mr Brown and Mr Darling to sort it out. The poll was taken on late Monday afternoon and evening, mainly after the Chancellor’s statement about the guarantee to depositors.
Just 20 per cent blame the Labour Government “a great deal” for Northern Rock’s difficulties, half the number who blame financial problems in the US mortgage market, and 29 per cent referring to the company’s own management. Even more telling is that the Brown-Darling team’s lead over the Cameron-Osborne team as being most trusted to deal with economic problems has increased in the ten days since the Populus conference poll. The margin is now 56 to 18 per cent, against 61 to 27 per cent previously, with Tory voters moving against their own party.
Moreover, the public as a whole is not panicking: the vast majority (86 per cent) have a greal deal of or moderate confidence in their bank or building society to manage lending and protect savings. On balance, voters are still optimistic about economic prospects, and especially for their families, while, by a margin of three to one, they still expect house prices to rise rather than fall over the next year.
Panic over? Possibly, depending not only on any backwash from the Northern Rock affair on savers’ confidence, but also, crucially, on any new protection scheme. Monday’s assurances are a stopgap, and voters differentiate between guaranteeing deposits (backed by four fifths) and shareholders (by just under a half).
The past five days have been a big shock for depositors and the financial system, but not yet a turning point in attitudes towards the Brown Government. They have been a jolt and a warning, not a repeat of Black Wednesday in 1992.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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